With the cobbled classics now done and dusted, we face a changing of the guards as the powerful, strong men take a well-deserved rest while the punchy climbers enter the scene in the Ardennes classics. The transition is marked perfectly by tomorrow's Brabantse Pijl semi-classic which offers the main actors in the most famous hilly races one final chance to test their legs but shorter climbs and even a few cobbles mean that the race also appeals to some of the Tour of Flanders contenders who may choose to make use of their good condition to give it one final shot in a major race.

 

The professional cycling season is divided into several phases that suit different kinds of riders. After the many preparation races in January and February, Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico give the stage racers a chance to shine before a special type of classics riders take the spotlight in Milan-Sanremo and the cobbled classics. That part comes to an end with Paris-Roubaix by which time the lighter guys take over in the Ardennes classics before we head into the grand tour season.

 

After John Degenkolb's win in Roubaix, we are now at one of those transition phases. Degenkolb will join the likes of Sep Vanmarcke, Alexander Kristoff, Niki Terpstra and Peter Sagan who all take a well-deserved rest while a whole new crop of riders are putting the final touches to the preparation for their big races, the Ardennes classics, that kick off with Sunday's Amstel Gold Race. Tomorrow they get the final chance to warm up their legs for the bigger races to come when some of the key contenders line up at the Brabantse Pijl semi-classic.

 

Held on the Sunday ahead of the Tour of Flanders, the Brabantse Pijl was for several years a monstrosity in the cobbles season. With almost no pave sections on the hilly course near the city of Leuven and a hard finish on the Alsemberg climb, the race saw a number of Ardennes riders test their legs while most people had their attention firmly focused on De Ronde a week later.

 

In a restructure of the Belgian classics calendar in 2010, the race got a race date in the part of the season to which it really belongs. Replacing the cobbled Scheldeprijs on the Wednesday ahead of Amstel Gold Race, the race now has its legitimacy as the final and perfect preparation race for the three important classics in Belgium and the Netherlands, and at the same time the route was changed to further accommodate its new role.

 

First held in 1961, the race lacks the deep history that characterize the biggest races but it has always been a hotly contested affair. A winners list that includes the likes of Eddy Merckx, Freddy Maertens, Roger De Vlaeminck, and Claude Criquelion in its early years proves that the race is not to be taken lightly. The most successful rider in the race is Edwig Van Hooydonck who took four wins between 1987 and 1995 while in recent years Oscar Freire has been the dominant figure, winning the race thrice in a row from 2005 to 2007 but failing to add that record fourth win to his palmares.

 

Unsurprisingly, the race has gained in stature as a consequence of its new date. After a surprise breakaway victory in 2010, the last three editions have seen a fascinating battle between some of the finest Ardennes specialists all in peak condition. In past years, the riders who could really excel in this race were not yet in peak condition and so often skipped the race but in the past few years, it has attracted a star-studded line-up of Ardennes stars. In 2011, the race even signaled the start of Philippe Gilbert's unprecedented run of classics success as the Belgian gobbled up the semi-classic ahead of his all-conquering assault in the Ardennes. The race may not officially belong to the Ardennes classics but in fact the Ardennes week may now be seen as stretching all the way from the Brabantse Pijl to Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

 

The race marks the transition from the cobbles to the Ardennes perfectly. Despite only having very few cobbles, the race is a sort of amalgamation between a cobbled and an Ardennes classic. With no less than 25 climbs on the course, climbing legs are clearly the main attribute in any quest for success. However, the race is held just south of Bruxelles and so the long climbs of the Ardennes are absent from the race route. Instead, the race features several short, sharp ascents - some even with cobbles - that are much more comparable to the hellingen tackled in the Tour of Flanders.

 

In that sense, the build-up of the hilly classics schedule now follows a nice progression. Starting with the short ramps in the Brabantse Pijl, the climbs gradually get longer and longer in the Amstel Gold Race and the Fleche Wallonne before the Liege-Bastogne-Liege rounds off the classics season as the race most suited to pure climbers and stage race riders which again leads the season naturally into the grand tours. Hence, it is no surprise to see a number of the in-form cobbles specialists try to get one last result before they take a well-deserved rest, and the start list contains a mix of both types of classics riders. This aspect is reflected by the winners list that both include cobbles specialists like Johan Museeuw, Luca Paolini and Sylvain Chavanel and Ardennes riders like Philippe Gilbert, Michele Bartoli and Michael Boogerd.

 

Last year the race was a real test event for the Ardennes as three of the biggest specialists, Simon Gerrans, Dan Martin and Philippe Gilbert, all used it to test the legs. While Martin took it easy throughout the entire race and Gerrans rode an aggressive race in support of Michael Matthews, Gilbert managed to add a second victory to his palmares. At one point, the BMC leader seemed to be out of the battle and he had to make a tremendous effort to bridge across to a strong group that included the likes of Gerrans and Bjorn Leukemans. Just as he made the junction, however, the race came back together and it seemed that Gilbert had burnt his matches too early. However, he still had enough left in the tank to take a narrow sprint victory over Matthews while Tony Gallopin completed the podium. This year Gilbert will be trying to take a third win in the Belgian semi-classic while Matthews and Gallopin will both be looking for their first win in a major sprint one-day race.

 

The course

The 2010 edition was not only the first one that saw the race being held at a different date, it also marked the introduction of a new, harder course that made it even more suited to its new date. More climbs were added to make the race more similar to the ones that are coming up in the Ardennes.

 

The revision of the course meant that the race abandoned its traditional finish on the Alsemberg and the former race landmark now only plays a secondary role in the layout of the race. Instead, the key point of the event is a hard finishing circuit in the city of Overijse containing no less than 5 climbs and with the peloton scheduled to tackle three laps, it is a hard end to the race with 15 short ascents inside the final 70km of the race. With a total of 26 small ascents and a few cobbled sections, it has ingredients from both the northern and the Ardennes classics which make it a diverse and tough affair. Compared to last year, the course is almost unchanged as only a small adjustment to the opening section has added an extra 2 kilometres to the total distance.

 

At 205.4km, the race has the length of a classic midweek race in between two major classics. The riders start from its traditional site in the city of Leuven and head in a southwesterly direction for a mostly flat run to the race's former finish location, passing the finishing city of Overijse along the way. In this phase, they go up the Rue de Hal climb after 57km of racing before doing a small lap on a circuit near the previous finish. This section includes the former landmark climbs of the Alsemberg and the Bruineput that come at the 69km and 75km marks respectively but no longer play any key role in the race.

 

The riders then turn around and travel along the same route back to the city of Overijse. With 4 climbs -Karbosstraat, Rue de Nivelles, Chaussee de Bruxelles and Rue Francois Dubois - on the menu, the route is slightly more challenging in the opposite direction but the opening part of the race is mostly a rather calm affair. After some early attacking, an early break usually tkaes the opportunity to enjoy some time in the spotlight while the favourites save their energy for the final battle on the finishing circuit.

 

The pace gradually heats up and the racing gets serious as soon as the peloton hits the finish line for the first time after 135.3km. At this point, they have already done almost a full lap of the finishing circuit, having tackled four of the five climbs that will dominate the finale. The riders now have to do 3 laps of the same 23.4km finishing circuit that has been the arbiter since 2010. With 5 climbs of which one is cobbled, it is a tricky affair, and attacks usually go thick and fast as soon as the peloton starts the first lap.

 

The first climb, Hagaard, comes just 2.7km after the passage of the line, with the Hertstraat following 3.8km further up the road. 6.5km later it is time for the Holstheide while the final two climbs come in quick succession close to the finish. 4.2km from the line, the riders tackle the cobbled Ijskelderlaan before they go down a technical descent. The final challenge, the Schavei, starts just 1.2km from the finish and summits when the riders make a left-hand turn onto a slightly uphill finishing straight just 200m from the line. Most of the finishing circuit is non-technical but the final 5km are a really challenging affair that includes several turns and a tricky descent inside the final 3km that even includes a few hairpin bends and end 2.2km from the line. The next flat section includes a few additional turns that make the run-in to the final climb very complicated.

 

The climbs are not very long and to make a difference, the best riders usually have to go hard all the way from the bottom to the top. Individually, they are easy affairs but the combined total of 26 short, sharp climbs make the race a tough event suited to the punchy finishers.

 

History proves that one can get a top result in this race by anticipating the favourites and the racing on the finishing circuit is usually a true festival of attacks, making it one of the most aggressive and entertaining races of the entire season. While the major classics are often pretty controlled, this race is at the opposite end of the spectrum. The race situation is constantly changing, with new groups forming, splitting up and merging. Even some key outsiders often attack from afar and it is always a delicate affair for the favourites to find out when to make their moves. At some point, the best riders usually bridges across to the strongest escapees by which time a small group with a mix of favourites and attackers forms and goes on to decide the race on the Schavei. Last year Philippe Gilbert seemed to have made such a move to join the group with Gerrans and Leukemans but it all came back together, proving that the race can also be decided in a sprint from a reduced peloton. Even though a smaller group usually decides the rac, it is certainly not impossible that the peloton is still together at the bottom of the Schavei climb and a punchy sprinter like past winner Oscar Freire certainly has a chance to arrive victorious in Overijse. Even though the climb ends 200m from the line, the group usually splits on the ascent, making the finish more suited to punchy guys than fast finishers and it is usually the Ardennes specialists that excel in this race.

 

 

 

The weather

In every Belgian classic, the weather conditions can play a huge role. Wind and rain may traditionally had a slightly smaller impact in the hilly races than on the cobbles but in a race like Brabantse Pijl with many narrow roads and tricky descents, most riders will prefer the weather to be good.

 

They could not have wished for a better weather forecast as it almost seems like summer has arrived in Belgium for the first hilly classic of the year. After a sunny morning, more clouds will appear in the afternoon but the temperature is expected to reach a massive 22 degrees which is very rare at this time of the year.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will first have a headwind during their long run in the beginning of the race before they turn into a crosswind as they head to the Alsemberg circuit. Then they will turn into a tailwind as they go back to the finishing circuit in Overijse. Here they will mostly have a tail- or a headwind, with a headwind dominating in the second half.  With 3.5km to go, the riders turn into a crowsswind for the technical descent but 2km from the line, a sharp turn leads them into a headwind. It will be a crosswind as they go up the Schawei and when they sprint the final 200m to the line on the false flat.

 

The favourites

Heading into the 2013 edition of the Dutch classic, the Amstel Gold Race was billed as a big duel between Philippe Gilbert and Peter Sagan and with both major contenders on the start line, Brabantse Pijl got a lot of attention as a big dress rehearsal of the battle between the two major favourites. This year Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski are widely topped to be Gilbert’s biggest rivals in the Netherlands on Sunday and as none of them will be at the start in Leuven, the 2015 edition of the race may lack a bit of attention it had two years ago.

 

This doesn't mean that the organizers cannot present a fabulous line-up for the event. Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Joaquim Rodriguez and most of the climbers that did the race in the Basque Country may be absent but the field contains most of the real one-day specialists that don't mix it up in both stage races and the classics. Most of these riders either haven't done the Basque race or haven't dug deep day in and day out and now need one final hit-out ahead of Sunday's race. On the other hand, the past trend of cobbled classics contenders ending their spring campaign by including the Belgian race, seems to be fading as Bjorn Leukemans, Sylvain Chavanel and Marco Marcato are the only top riders from the Hell of the North to be on the start line. Greg Van Avermaet has often done this race but nowadays he has changed his schedule to focus more on the cobbles. On the other hand, a rider like Dries Devenyns who is usually strong in the Flemish races, skipped Roubaix as he combines the hilly Flemish classics with the races in the Ardennes, making it evident that this race is somewhat of an amalgamation between Ardennes and Flemish races.

 

Brabantse Pijl is a very difficult race to handle for the pre-race favourites. The many climbs and aggressive racing mean that it is very hard to control and so the race has often been won by a strong group that escapes on the final circuit. On the other hand, it is also perfectly possible that the race comes down to a final battle on the Schavei and then it is important not to have burnt the matches too early.

 

The challenges of the race were evident last year when Philippe Gilbert was the red-hot favourite to win. The Belgian suddenly found himself on the back foot when a very dangerous group with the likes of Simon Gerrans and Bjorn Leukemans had escaped and his BMC seemed to blow up when they tried to chase it down. Gilbert felt that he had missed the winning move and spent more than 10km in lone pursuit of the leaders before he made the junction. At that same moment, however, Giant-Alpecin and CCC Polsat had managed to bring it back together and Gilbert suddenly found himself in a difficult position. In the end, he still had enough left in the tank to win the uphill sprint but the situation proves that it is very difficult to find out how to approach this race: do you have to ride aggressively or the circuit or hope for an uphill sprint on the Schavei?

 

This makes the race an exciting affair that can be won by a wide range of riders. As Thome Voeckler’s 2012 victory proves the race can even be won by a lone attacker and in 2010, the early breakaway even made it to the finish. However, the race is usually decided in a final battle on the Schavei among a group of escapees or a bigger peloton and this means that the race suits the puncheurs who have a good kick on a short climb. As the sprint is on a false flat, it is combination of sprinting skills and climbing legs that usually decides the race. This makes it very comparable to Amstel Gold Race whose new finish is pretty similar, with a short climb leading to a flat finale. However, the Cauberg is a lot harder than Schavei and the Ducth classic is longer than Brabantse Pijl, meaning that it is a far tougher race than the Belgian midweek classic.

 

It is hard to say whether this year’s race will be decided in a sprint from a bigger group or whether a break will stay away. The good weather should make the race easier and this should make it easier to bring it back together. Much will depend on the approach of the BMC team which have the strongest line-up for this race. The roster is loaded with strong climbers who can make this race really tough. They will be riding in complete support of Philippe Gilbert and the former world champion can win the race both from a sprint and from an attack.

 

While it is a bit uncertain how Gilbert will approach the race, Orica-GreenEDGE will do their best to bring it back together for a sprint. Michael Matthews finished second in this race in 2014 and he will be hoping to go one better in a race that he has always loved. Last year he was supported by a formidable team that included several very good climbers but this year the provisional Orica-GreenEDGE roster is mostly made up of heavier guys. This will make it harder for them to control the race and Matthews may have to ride more aggressively than he would have preferred.

 

Nonetheless, we will put the Australian on the top of our list of favourites. The Australian has made huge strides in recent year and the 2014 season was a bit of a breakthrough season for him. While he had mostly been known for his sprinting skills in the early part of his career, 2014 was the year when he finally showed his great versatility and proved that he can also win very hard races. He won tough stages in both the Giro d’Italia and the Vuelta a Espana in finales that were much harder than the one in Brabantse Pijl.

 

In 2015, Matthews has improved his level a bit more. He is reportedly lighter than he was in 2014 and he has been climbing exceptionally well. He won a tough sprint in Paris-Nice and even survived in the main group for a very long time in the rainy and hard penultimate stage to Nice. In the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he defied expectations when he survived the tough climb in the finale of stage 1 before sprinting to what looked like an easy win. In the brutally hard stage 5, he climbed really well in terrain that is usually way too tough for him.

 

Matthews’ big goal is Amstel Gold Race but in the Dutch classic he will probably have to share leadership with Simon Gerrans, depending on the form of the Liege-Bastogne-Liege champion who is coming back from injury. In this race, however, he is the sole leader and he will go all out in a quest to win his first big one-day race at the elite level.

 

In the past, Matthews has proved that he is very hard to beat in an uphill sprint and he would have been out favourite even if the race had finished at the top of the Schavei climb. With the flat finish, however, he is an even bigger favourite as he is a lot faster than the likes of Philippe Gilbert and Tony Gallopin in a flat sprint. Last year he was narrowly edged out by Gilbert but this year he is riding at a much higher level and this time he is unlikely to get beaten by the former world champion.

 

Matthews’ main challenge will be to bring it back together for a sprint. As said, Orica-GreenEDGE don’t have the strongest team for this race and he may have to go on the attack. However, that is perfectly possible for Matthews who is now one of the strongest riders in this kind of terrain. He may not be quite as punchy as Gilbert on the hardest climbs but the ascents in this race are not very difficult. We don’t think anyone will be able to drop Matthews on these climbs and if he can just stay close to Gilbert, there is a big chance that he will be in the finale. In that case, he will be hard to beat and this makes him our favourite to win the race.

 

His biggest rival will of course be Philippe Gilbert. The former world champion has won this race twice from two different scenarios. In fact, Gilbert has a lot of different possibilities to win this race and the course evidently suits him.

 

Everything suggests that Gilbert is on track for a great classics campaign and in fact he seems to be riding at a higher level than he did 12 months ago. Already towards the end of last year, it seemed that he was getting closer to his magical 2011 level. He was one of the strongest at the World Championships and he surprised himself by climbing with the best in the Chinese mountains to win the Tour of Beijing. This year he already looked strong in the Dubai Tour and he was good in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad too.

 

However, everything had been planned for Gilbert to reach his highest level for the Ardennes classics. He crashed in the finale of Milan-Sanremo but apart from that incident he has had a perfect build-up. Recently, he did the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and despite the course being a lot tougher than usual, he did really well to finish the race in top 30.

 

Brabantse Pijl is not his main goal but there is no doubt that he will do his utmost to win it for a third time. He is supported by a formidable team that includes climbers like Darwin Atapuma, Alessandro De Marchi, Damiano Caruso and Amael Moinard, Ardennes specialist Ben Hermans and huge talents Dylan Teuns and Silvan Dillier. Gilbert needs to tire Matthews and with that kind of firepower, he definitely has the means to both control the race and make it hard.

 

We expect Gilbert to have a pretty aggressive approach as he will probably prefer to avoid a head-to-head battle with Matthews and he also wants to test his legs for the Ardennes classics. If he can make it into a small group, he will be hard to beat. However, he has also proved that he can win from a bigger group. He is among the most explosive riders on short, sharp climbs and he is fast on the flat too. At the top of the Schavei, it is all about having something left for the final sprint and usually Gilbert is the strongest in this kind of terrain among the riders in this race. Last year he proved that he can beat Matthews in this kind of finale and he won’t be scared by another duel. Gilbert definitely has the means to win this race for a third time.

 

It has always been evident that Fabio Felline has the skills to become a rider for the Ardennes classics but after a great start to his career, it seemed that the Italian’s progress stalled. This year, however, he has taken a massive step up and he has been one of the best riders in the early part of the season. Already in the hard French one-day races in Sud-Ardeche and Drome at the end of February, he was among the strongest on the climbs and he got very close to a first win for Trek in those races. Later he went on to be one of the strongest on Poggio in Milan-Sanremo where he was able to go with the attacks while most of the pre-race favourites seemed to suffer.

 

However, his performances in the Criterium International and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco have been the ones that have really marked him out as one to watch, especially in Brabantse Pijl and the Amstel Gold Race. In the French race, he won the time trial and defied all expectations on the Col de l’Ospedale by finishing the race on the podium. In Pais Vasco, he finally opened his account when he won the sprint on stage 2 and he climbed impressively in the mountain stages before he capped it off with a great 6th place in the time trial which included extremely tough climbing.

 

The hilly course in Overijse is tailor-made for Felline who excels on short steep climbs and he is very fast in a sprint. He may not be as fast as Matthews but he is a better climber and in Pais Vasco he proved that he can even beat the Australian in a direct battle if he times things well. The sprint in Overijse comes at the top of a climb which should suit him a lot better and he is strong enough to go with the attacks. Felline has the skills to win this race and continue his successful 2015 season with a great performance in Overijse.

 

Bardiani is not riding a lot in this part of the world but for the second year in a row, they have received a wildcard for the Amstel Gold Race. This race is a crucial part of their preparation and on paper they have two riders who are among the best in this kind of terrain.

 

Last year Sonny Colbrelli was unstoppable in the Italian one-day races where he took several wins by using his great combination of fast legs and good climbing skills. His performances even made him the leader of the Italian team for the Worlds where he proved that he can handle the long distances by finishing just outside the top 10.

 

This year has not been great for Colbrelli who has had a few setbacks but he surprised himself in Milan-Sanremo where he was able to keep up with the best. Since then he has prepared for the Amstel Gold Race and his condition should be a lot better. Due to bad luck, he didn’t have the chance to test himself in the Volta Limburg Classic and so he may be a bit uncertain about his level for this race. On paper, however, it suits him great and if it comes down to a sprint on the Schavei, he will be among the big favourites.

 

His teammate Enrico Battaglin has also had a complicated start to the year and hasn’t really reached his pre-season goal of showing more consistency. In the Volta Limburg Classic, however, he showed that he is getting closer to his best and now he should be even stronger. On paper, this race is great for him and it will be all about finding out who to ride for. On paper, Colbrelli is slightly faster than Battaglin who is the better climber and so the latter may be asked to ride aggressively. In the Giro d’Italia, he has proved that he can beat most in a sprint so if he makes it into the right group, he may finally take a big win outside his home country.

 

Enrico Gasparotto always reaches his best condition for this time of the year and he is one of the most consistent riders in the Ardennes classics. Having been riding for the Astana team, he has not had the chance to ride this race since 2008 but this year he will be back as one of three leaders of the Wanty team. Gasparotto’s big goals are again the Ardennes classics and he has had a solid build-up that included a decent showing in the Volta a Catalunya. There is little doubt that he is ready for these races and the Brabantse Pijl suits him very well. He is strong in this terrain and very fast in both an uphill and a flat sprint. He will benefit from a tough race and with three cards to play, Wanty have the means to make it tough. Gasparotto can win from every race scenario and this makes him one to watch.

 

Last year Tony Gallopin finished on the podium in this race despite having had a very untimely puncture in the finale. This year he is hoping for better luck and for another victory in a big one-day race after his victory in the 2013 Clasica San Sebastian. Gallopin has always been one of the most talented riders and has had a very gradual progress. Last year he took a massive step forward as he was a key protagonist in the Flemish and the Ardennes classics before capping a great season with his excellent performance at the Tour de France.

 

This year Gallopin has continued to make strides as he did an excellent Paris-Nice as he took a memorable solo win on a very hard day in the Nice hills. Furthermore, he has changed his schedule. For a versatile rider like him, it has always been hard to choose between the Flemish and the Ardennes classics but this year he has decided to focus fully on the hilly races where he will lead Lotto Soudal with Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert. This means that he has followed the usual build-up for those races with a big training camp and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. He rode solidly in Spain despite still being a bit fatigued from his training and this puts him in a good position for this race.

 

Gallopin is a great puncheur who excels on short climbs, and he has a fast sprint too. He is not as fast as Gilbert, Matthews and Felline and so he needs a hard race to improve his chances. With his great climbing legs, he will probably go on the attack and if he makes it into a small group, he both has the panache to try a solo move and the speed to win a sprint.

 

After dominating the Australian domestique scene, Nathan Haas had big expectations when he arrived in Europe to join the WorldTour. However, things have been hard for the Australian who has found the transition to the higher level tough. However, he has gradually improved his level and is now capable of fighting with the best in select races.

 

Last year he finished 5th in the Tour Down Under and won the Japan Cup. This year he has failed to reach similar heights but it seems that he has timed his conditions perfectly for his big goals in the Ardennes. In the big races, he will be riding in support of Daniel Martin but in this race he will be the clear leader. He rode very strongly in Circuit Cycliste Sarthe where he mixed it up with the best in both the time trial and the queen stage and even sprinted to second in the bunch kick on stage 1 which was won by Nacer Bouhanni.

 

Haas has the skills to do well in this race which is underlined by his top 10 finish in last year’s race. The bigger classics will probably be too hard for him but the climbs in Overijse suit his punchy skills well. He is likely to have become stronger than he was 12 months ago and should be able to go with the attacks. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint which is crucial in this race.

 

We are very curious to see what Bryan Coquard can do in this race. The Frenchman has done nothing to hide that he wants to do well in the Ardennes but until now the races have been too hard for him. This year he has stepped up his climbing quite a bit. In Paris-Nice he did a fantastic uphill sprint to finish second on stage 5 and in the Volta a Catalunya he mixed it up with the GC riders on the tough circuit in Barcelona where he finished second behind Alejandro Valverde. A race like Amstel Gold Race is probably still too hard for him but this race should be within his reach. He will have to save energy for the finale but if it comes down to a sprint and he can make it to the top of the Schavei with the best, he will clearly be the fastest.

 

Like many others, Francesco Gavazzi seems to have been reinvigorated since he joined the Southeast team. This year he has been climbing very strongly and he has been in very good condition in the first few months. Recently, he rode strongly in the Volta Limburg Classic which indicates that he is still riding at a very high level and this race suits him really well. The short, steep climbs suit him perfectly and he is very fast in a sprint. He has been close to the big win on several occasions and in Belgium he may finally break his drought.

 

This race is perfectly suited to Simone Ponzi who will be the second Southeast card. The Italian has finished second in the GP de Montreal which proves that he can be up there with the best on the hilly courses at the highest level. While riding for Astana, he was hugely inconsistent but since he joined Southeast he has started to clock up wins. He was strong in the early part of the season but hasn’t been at the same level recently. With his fast sprint, however, he has all the skills to do well in this race but it remains to be seen how Southeast will play their cards. Ponzi is probably a bit faster than Gavazzi but the latter seems to be in better condition than his teammate.

 

On paper, Gianni Meersman should be the Etixx-QuickStep leader in this race but the Belgian is clearly not in his best condition. This could open the door for Julian Alaphilippe to test himself in a race that suits him down to the ground. The Frenchman is destined for a great future in the Ardennes classics and he has had a rapid progress since he joined the professional ranks. He rode very strongly at the end of last year where he won a very hard stage in the Tour de l’Ain and this year he got close to a WorldTour win when he finished second on stage 6 of the Volta a Catalunya after having done a too long sprint. In that race, he climbed very strongly and the shorter climbs in this race should suit him even better. With his fast sprint, he has a good chance in this race.

 

On paper, this race is very good for Gianni Meersman but the Belgian has been set back by illness. He was far from his usual level in Pais Vasco and he left the race earlier than planned. He is very unlikely to have improved enough to be a contender in this race and he will probably mainly use it to improve his condition. If it comes down to a sprint on the Schavei, however, you can never rule Meersman out in a finale that suits him down to the ground.

 

In addition to Gasparotto, Wanty have two cards to play. Marco Marcato and Bjorn Leukemans both arrive straight from Paris-Roubaix and may still be a bit fatigued. However, Leukemans is one of the most consistent riders in this race and he has proved that he can recover in time. Nonetheless, Marcato should have a better chance as he is much faster in a sprint and on paper this race suits him down to the ground. After a couple of difficult season, he is apparently back at his highest level and will be one to watch on Wednesday. He is strong in this terrain and even though he is not as fast as he once was, he still has the speed to win this race.

 

Leukemans is always among the best in this race but it has always been hard for him to win. He is usually one of the strongest on the climbs but he has always found himself up against faster riders. His performance on the cobbles proves that he is again in excellent condition and we wouldn’t be surprised if he turns out to be the strongest rider in the race. To win the race, however, he will probably have to arrive solo at the finish.

 

Ramunas Navardauskas has never really been a contender in the Ardennes but this year he seems to be intent on giving the hilly races a shot. In the big races, it will be all for Dan Martin but in this race he may be given his own chance. In the Canadian WorldTour races, he proved that his climbing skills are good enough to be a contender and as a third place finisher on the Champs Elysees he has the speed to beat everybody. He may lack the punch to follow the best on the climbs but he showed very good condition in Sarthe and if it comes down to a sprint, he will be one to watch.

 

CCC come into this race with two potential winners. This year has been a breakthrough for Maciej Paterski who finally seems to be able to capitalize on his strength. He rode strongly already in February and one day after finishing in the lead group in Milan-Sanremo, he took a memorable victory in the Volta a Catalunya. After having lost the leader’s jersey, he was third in the penultimate stage and he was among the strongest in the Volta Limburg Classic. In this race, he can both ride aggressively and wait for a sprint. There are definitely faster riders than him but he is clearly one of the strongest at the moment.

 

His teammate Davide Rebellin finished in the top 10 last year and is still going strong. In the Coppi e Bartali, he rode very strongly on the climbs and 6 months ago he proved that he can still beat the elite when he won the Giro dell’Emilia. His big goal is the Amstel Gold Race but he should also be a contender in this race. He is likely to be one of the strongest on the climbs and he also has a decent sprint. However, the race is probably too easy for him to really shine but he has the experience to make a well-timed solo move at the end of a tough race.

 

NOTE: There are usually many late changes to the start list for Brabantse Pijl. This preview is based on the roster selections that were announced on Monday but there may be made significant changes before the final start list is announced.

 

***** Michael Matthews

**** Philippe Gilbert, Fabio Felline

*** Sonny Colbrelli, Enrico Battaglin, Tony Gallopin, Nathan Haas, Bryan Coquard, Francesco Gavazzi, Simone Ponzi

** Julian Alaphilippe, Gianni Meersman, Marco Marcato, Bjorn Leukemans, Ramunas Navardauskas, Maciej Paterski, Jonathan Hivert, Davide Rebellin, Julien Simon

* Wilco Kelderman, Jan Bakelants, Romain Hardy, Michel Kreder, Grega Bole, Maurits Lammertink, Dries Devenyns, Sylvain Chavanel, Rasmus Guldhammer, Paul Martens, Daniele Ratto, Pim Ligthart, Dylan Teuns, Thomas Voeckler, Damiano Caruso, Zico Waeytens, Yukiya Arashiro, Michal Golas, Petr Vakoc, Thomas Degand, Thomas De Gendt, Tosh van der Sande, Jasper Stuyven, Stijn Devolder, Bartosz Huzarski, Florian Vachon, Armindo Fonseca, Linus Gerdemann, Rudy Molard, Kristian Sbaragli, Kiel Reijnen, Marco Canola