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11.09.2015 @ 20:14 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

This weekend the preparation for the world championships reaches its climax with the two Canadian WorldTour races Grand Cycliste de Quebec and Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal. Held on hilly courses over distances of more than 200km, the races and their circuit format offer the perfect opportunity to test the condition a few weeks prior to the battle for the rainbow jersey. With a tricky course in Richmond on the same side of the Atltantic being the scene for the World Championships, this is again true for this year's 5th edition of the races and they have attracted a star-studded line-up of classics specialists that are eager to gauge themselves against some of their biggest rivals for the battle in the USA.

 

For a number of years, it almost appeared as being a certainty that the first North American race on the WorldTour would be the ever-growing and ambitious Tour of California. With UCI eager to globalize the sport and expand the pinnacle calendar to cover races on most continents, it would just be a question of time before the American stage race would put North America on the biggest scene.

 

However, the Californian race never got the honour of becoming the first event on the continent to join the exclusive club of WorldTour races. Canadian race promoter Serge Arsenault who has a long history of organizing bike races, planned to put Canada in the cycling spotlight by organizing two WorldTour one-day races and in 2009 quickly reached an agreement with the UCI that awarded his races in Quebec and Montreal 5-year licenses as WorldTour events. Despite several European races' year-long request to get onto the biggest calendar, Arsenault's brand-new project got immediate recognition, UCI being eager to spread their WorldTour calendar to a third continent as fast as possible.

 

The inaugural events were held in 2010 and didn't get overly much attention. For many teams, the long travel to North America was a hard burden at a time when most riders are on their knees and just looking forward to an off-season rest.

 

That has since changed and the races now have an important, well-deserved and well-timed place on the calendar. Being well-organized one-day races with a distance of more than 200km, their circuit race formats have turned them into the best possible preparation for the World Championships for the riders that aren't racing the Vuelta a Espana. Having been set up as "mini World Championships", the contenders for the Worlds couldn't have wished a better block of racing two weeks prior to the big event and in recent editions, the organizers have attracted a star-studded line-up that surpasses the one seen at many European WorldTour races.

 

The main disadvantage is of course the long travel to North America. However, With the Tour of Utah and the USA Pro Challenge being held in the USA in August and the newer Tour of Alberta taking place on Canadian soil one week prior to the one-day events, it is now possible to build a solid block of racing consisting entirely of North American races and riders can now make prolonged stays on the other side of the Atlantic to prepare for the world championships. In 2013, riders like Chris Froome, Richie Porte and Peter Sagan did that when they have combined high-altitude racing in Colorado with Worlds-like racing in Quebec and Montreal to prepare for the major autumn objective. However, it seems that the prospect of doing the entire American and Canadian racing schedule no longer has the same appeal.

 

The one-day races have remained popular though and it's hard to find a genuine Worlds contender that is not riding either the Vuelta or in Canada even though the Tour of Britain seems to gradually establish itself as a third path. Held on hilly circuits in the cities of Quebec and Montreal, they are ones for the riders that excel in the Ardennes classics. This year they may be a bit harder than the Worlds circuit but the races still offer one big advantage. They are held on the same side of Atlantic compared to the battle for the rainbow jersey and so many will take the opportunity to travel early and get acclimatized while also doing some quality racing.

 

The races fit perfectly into the anatomy of the second half of the season which is loaded with one-day races. It all kicks off with the Vattenfall Cyclassics and from there the racing just gets tougher and tougher. While the Hamburg race is one for the sprinters, the GP de Plouay suits both classics specialists and fast riders. The Canadian WorldTour races are even tougher and here the sprinters have a very hard time. Instead, the races are for the puncheurs and Ardennes specialists and in Montreal, the climbers may even have a chance to shine.

 

On paper, the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec is the easier of the two as the climbs on the 12.6km circuit are gentler than the ones used for the Montreal race. On the other hand, the finish is tougher in Quebec as the final 1.5km are all uphill. With Thomas Voeckler, Philippe Gilbert, Simon Gerrans and Robert Gesink being the previous winners, it is evident that the race suits the puncheurs and the Ardennes specialists.

 

Last year the course was modified as the circuit was made a bit longer by adding a long, flat section. This meant that fewer laps and so fewer climbs had to be tackled, making the race much easier. This year the old circuit is back though and we should again have the usual tough race.

 

Last year Simon Gerrans firmly put himself at the top of the list of favourites for the World Championships by winning the race before going on to become the first rider to win both the Canadian race by adding the victory in Montreal to his palmares two days later. An excellent lead-out by the Orica-GreenEDGE team put him in the perfect position when it came down to an uphill sprint and he easily beat Tom Dumoulin and Ramunas Navardauskas to take his second big WorldTour one-day win of the year while lead-out man Daryl Impey even held onto fourth. Gerrans, Dumoulin and Impey are all riding the Vuelta as they are bouncing back from injuries but Navardauskas will be back, trying to continue the good condition he showed by finishing on the podium in Plouay.

 

The course

It’s very rare for a WorldTour race to be held entirely as a circuit race and that is what makes the Canadian WorldTour races special. Among the races, only the GP Ouest France-Plouay has a similar format but it is exactly this nature that makes them attractive for the Worlds contenders. Furthermore, their hilly nature makes them comparable to a typical Worlds course and this adds further value to the races.

 

In the first years, the race took place over 18 laps on a 12.6km circuit but last year a noticeable change was made. As said, the circuit was extended from 12.6km to 18.1km by adding a long, flat section at the midpoint and the number of laps was reduced from 18 to 11. This year the race is back to its traditional format, meaning that there will be more climbing.

 

With 18 laps of a 12.6km circuit, the race has a total length of 201.6km and this makes it a tough race but far shorter than the battle for the rainbow jersey. The circuit has three small climbs and the long gradual drag to the finish line on Grande-Allée Ouest.

 

The race starts at 91m above sea level on the outskirts of the Parc des Champs-de Bataille in Quebec. The first kilometre is slightly ascending as the riders take two sharp left-hand turns to enter the park. Then the roads are slightly descending when the peloton takes a sharp right-hand turn that leads them onto a rolling road that traverses the park. At the 3.5km mark, the riders leave the park as they take a left-hand turn to get back onto the Grande-Allee Ouest and just after the 4km mark, they make another left-hand turn to get onto a descent with a few hairpin turns that take them back to sea level.

 

From there, the riders roll alongside the park on completely flat roads for four kilometres. Just before the 9km mark, they make a couple of turns that lead them onto the day's first climb Cote de la Montagne (375m, 10%) and up to 42m of altitude in just 375m. The ascent is followed by an immediate descent and at the 10km mark, the riders are almost back at sea level. While the riders tackle two left-hand turns, they head up the Cote de la Potasse (420m, 9%) that sits at 47m of altitude. An almost unnoticeable descent leads to the bottom of the short Montee de la Fabrique (190m, 7%) whose top is at 47m of altitude. This section is fairly technical with several corners. 100m of flat roads lead to the long gradual incline to the finish in 91m of altitude. Two sharp corners will bring the riders onto the finishing straight which is around 900m long and all uphill. The final kilometre has an average gradient of 4%.

 

The only really steep climb is the Cote de la Montagne but it is rather short and it is the accumulated fatigue more than the climbing itself that makes the difference. Unlike in the Montreal race, the strongest sprinters may have a chance to make a result on this course but the gradual incline to the finish clearly favours the Ardennes specialists and the puncheurs.

 

The racing is usually extremely aggressive and the race very difficult to control. It usually takes some time for the early break to be established and from there, the race follows the traditional scenario with an organized chase where the stronger teams gradually increase the pressure.

 

However, attacks have a good chance of being successful in this race and so new offensives are often launched from afar. The final 3-4 laps are usually a festival of attacks where groups are being formed, reeled in and new established. With several fast finishers in contention for this kind of uphill sprint, several teams have a genuine interest in making the race hard. The teams of the favourites try to keep things under control and the fierce pace makes it a gradual elimination race.

 

In the first two editions of the race, small groups got clear on the penultimate passage of the climb and were left to fight it out in a hectic finale. In 2012 a bigger 40-rider group remained in contention when they entered the final kilometres. This makes the races very hard to control as few riders have any support riders left in the hectic finales and so one of the numerous attacks on the final lap are likely to be successful. That's what happened in 2013when Simon Gerrans and Greg Van Avermaet benefited from Sagan's lack of teammates and that's what happened in 2010 when Voeckler made a well-timed attack to deny Edvald Boasson Hagen the win. In 2011, Gilbert managed to control the final 10-rider group before unleashing his immense power on the final uphill straight to the line. In 2013 a small group escaped on the final climbs and all subsequent attacks were neutralized before the group sprinted for the win, with Robert Gesink taking a surprise win. Last year the easier course meant that it was a relatively big group that sprinted for the win.

 

In this kind of aggressive and uncontrollable final, power, tactical ingenuity, team support and luck are all of importance. You need to be strong to get to the finale but the strongest rider doesn't always win the race.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders who did the Tour of Alberta will be pleased to be greeted by much better weather after six days in the Canadian cold. In fact, they could not have asked for better conditions for Friday’s race. It will be  a sunny day with a pleasant maximum temperature of 22 degrees.

 

There will only be a light win from an easterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind in the first part before they turn into a headwind for the long flat section. There will be a tailwind and cross-tailwind on the first two climbs and a headwind on the final ascent. It will be a tailwind for the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

Just as the riders had started to understand the nature of the GP de Quebec, the organizers made a key change to the course and that had a significant impact on the racing. Last year’s race was by far the least selective and it was always evident that it was going to come down to an uphill sprint. This year we are back at the traditional format and this means that we should again have a more selective race.

 

The results of the previous editions have clearly indicated that this is a race for punchy Ardennes specialists. In some editions, the selection has been made on the penultimate lap but it has mostly come down to the final climbs on the final lap where the best climbers have been able to make a difference before sprinting it out on the uphill finishing straight where the puncheurs have been able to shine.

 

Already last year’s course proved to be too hard for Alexander Kristoff so even though sprinters like Kristoff, Tom Boonen and Arnaud Demare who all excel in uphill sprints are all at the start, we can’t expect them to feature in the end. They will mainly use the race to prepare for the World Championships where they are among the biggest favourites. Instead, we will have to look for riders that excel in the Ardennes and at the moment several of those are in very good condition.

 

Quebec is the easiest of the two races. In Montreal, the main climb is so long that it’s more a race for climbers and true Ardennes specialists but in Quebec, the short hills make it more comparable to a Flemish classic. A lot more riders can survive these short, steep ascents and much will depend on how hard the race will be made in the first laps. It will be the accumulated fatigue more than the relatively short climbs that will make the difference.

 

Thomas Voeckler managed to make an impressive solo move in the inaugural edition but otherwise we have always had a sprint from a smaller group. Only last year it was a bigger group that sprinted for the win while the best climbers have been able to escape in 2011, 2012 and 2013. This year we will again see lots of attacks in the final two laps as many teams don’t want it to come down to a big sprint.

 

Michael Matthews will be the centre of attention. The Australian is almost unbeatable in this kind of uphill sprint and most want to avoid a direct battle with the Orica-GreenEDGE captain. Most of the big teams have riders that are fast in this kind of sprint and they will be confident in their chances if they can make it to the finish in a small group. This should give a late break a better chance. However, they may also be reluctant to burn their matches too early and it will be interesting to see whether riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alaphilippe and Fabio Felline ride offensively or believe in their chances in a sprint.

 

Much will depend on their approach to the race and how Orica-GreenEDGE design their tactics. They have a very strong team with the Yates brothers and Michael Albasini who are all strong enough to cover late moves. Matthews hasn’t shown outstanding condition recently so they may not be willing to gamble it all on a sprint finish.

 

Based on recent history, we expect a small group to escape in the end. At his best, Matthews would be there but he hasn’t raced a lot due to the injuries he suffered in the Tour. He was back in action in Alberta where he won a stage and he was clearly at a decent level. However, we don’t expect him to be able to follow the best in a race where lots of teams want to make it hard.

 

Instead, we will put Greg Van Avermaet on top of our list of favourites. The Belgian has been in the top 5 of this race three years in a row so the finale obviously suits him. That’s no surprise as he is one of the best in this kind of uphill sprints and this year he even seems to have upped his level a further notch. The way he won the uphill sprint in the Tour de France was no less than impressive and he took a similar win in Tirreno-Adriatico.

 

After the Tour, he has been his usual consistent self. He would probably have won the Clasica San Sebastian if he hadn’t been run down by a motorbike and he was one of the strongest in the Eneco Tour where he again beat the GC riders in an uphill sprint on the Muur in Geraardsbergen. He was fifth in the bunch sprint in Hamburg and he was the best of the attackers in Plouay where he was caught with just 1km to go.

 

Furthermore, Van Avermaet is backed by a very strong team. He will share captaincy duties with former winner Philippe Gilbert but Van Avermaet has clearly been the strongest recently. With Gilbert to set him up for the sprint, BMC could dominate things in the way, Orica-GreenEDGE did last year. Van Avermaet can win a bigger sprint and will certainly make the selection if a small group escapes. Hence, he is our favourite

 

We will still put Michael Matthews up there as one of the biggest favourites. An in-form Matthews was strong enough to follow Gilbert on the Cauberg in Amstel Gold Race so the climbs in Quebec should really be nothing. However, he has had a far from ideal preparation so he is probably not strong enough to go with the attacks. Instead, he will probably have to rely on a sprint from a bigger group and Orica-GreenEDGE may be strong enough to make that happen. Matthews is clearly faster than all the classics specialists and this is the kind of finish where he is usually unbeatable.

 

2015 has been a tough year for Tom-Jelte Slagter who has been far from his best condition all year. However, now his legs have finally started to come around and the way he rode in Alberta where he won two stages, suggests that he is close to the level he had in the 2014 Paris-Nice. Back then he won two stages and was unbeatable in the uphill sprints. In fact, he would probably have won the race if he had not had bad luck in the hardest stage.

 

Slagter will go into this race with lots of confidence after his recent showing and he is clearly strong enough to follow the late attacks. He may not be good enough to win a bigger sprint but if it comes down to a sprint from a small group of Ardennes specialists, he will be one of the best.

 

Trek go into this race with a two-pronged attack. Fabio Felline and Bauke Mollema have both shown impressive condition. This course may be a bit too easy for Mollema and it is probably a better idea to back Felline who is the faster finisher. The Italian is enjoying a breakthrough season and has already taken one WorldTour win in Pais Vasco. Most recently he won the GP de Fourmies with a late attack and that result comes at the end of a long period with strong showings. He was in the top 10 in the Eneco Tour where he proved that he can follow the best in the Ardennes terrain and he rode aggressively in both Hamburg and Plouay. He is probably strong enough to go with the attacks and he specializes in these uphill sprints.

 

Etixx-QuickStep also have a two-pronged attack with Michal Kwiatkowski and Julian Alaphilippe. 2015 has been a bad year for the world champion who has not been at his best. As opposed to this, Alaphilippe has enjoyed a breakthrough and he even skipped the Vuelta to do these races as his team feel that he has a chance to win. He doesn’t seem to have the condition he had in the spring but he has still been one of the strongest on the climbs in the Eneco Tour and Plouay where he was part of a late move. He is very fast in an uphill sprint and he seems to be strong enough to follow the attacks.

 

Nowadays, Matti Breschel rarely reaches his best condition in the spring but when we get closer to the Worlds, he is always flying. That seems to be the case in 2015 too. He was very strong in the Tour of Denmark but unfortunately we never got the chance to see what he could do in the Eneco Tour as he crashed out of that race. However, he was already back on top in Plouay where he launched a strong solo attack on the final climb. If he has the condition he had at last year’s Worlds, he will be able to go with the best and he has the sprint to finish it off.

 

Lotto Soudal have one of the best teams for this race. While the condition of Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens is questionable, Tiesj Benoot is clearly flying. The Belgian has firmly established himself as one of the biggest classics talents. He first shone on the cobbles but the Dauphiné and the recent races proved that he can also match the best in the harder terrain. Most recently, he was part of the late move in Plouay. This race is very good for him and he is fast in a sprint as he even beat some very fast guys in sprints at the Eneco Tour.

 

Diego Ulissi looms as very strong contender. At his best, the Italian is very hard to beat in this kind of uphill sprint but his form is not at his best. He was good in Poland and looked strong in the Eneco Tour until he had a hunger flat in the queen stage. He went on the attack in Hamburg but was unable to follow the best attacks in Plouay. To win this race, an improvement is needed but as he aims for the Worlds, that is not impossible. If he is there for the sprint, he will be one of the biggest favourites.

 

Usually, we would say that this course is too hard for Sep Vanmarcke. The Belgian was seventh last year but this year there will be more climbing. However, Vanmarcke is in excellent condition at the moment as he proved in Poitou-Charentes and Plouay where he was very strong in the finale. Furthermore, he proved that he can handle some hard climbing by making it into the front group in Montreal in 2014. This year he is riding even better. The relatively short climbs suit him well and he is fast in an uphill sprint.

 

We are very curious to see how Michal Kwiatkowski will do in this race. The world champion has had a disastrous year and only the win in Amstel Gold Race can make up for that. He rode poorly in the Tour aand recently he had a very bad Tour de Pologne. He looked much better when he returned to racing in the weekend but it hard to gauge his condition based on those relatively easy races. On paper, these races suit him down to the ground as he is very fast in an uphill sprint and one of the best on such climbs. However, as he is also set to change teams he may have to ride in support of Alaphilippe.

 

Tony Gallopin is tailor-made for this race and if he had been in the Tour de France condition, he would have been an obvious favourite. However, he has done very little racing since the Tour and he was not at his best in Plouay. It remains to be seen whether his condition is good enough to go for glory in such a hard race but if he is, he is obviously one of the fastest in this kind of sprint.

 

Matthews is not the only Orica-GreenEDGE card. The Australian team also have lots of confidence in Michael Albasini. The Swiss crashed out of the Tour but seems to be back in good condition. He was active in Hamburg and a leadership role in this race indicates that his form is not too bad. He has won bunch sprints in the past and is tailor-made for these uphill sprints but will only get his chance if it is too hard for Matthews. Furthermore, we don’t think that he is at 100% yet.

 

Bauke Mollema recently won the Tour of Alberta and proved that he is ready for these races which are big goals for him. He is clearly one of the best on the climbs and he is explosive too. We would be surprised if he doesn’t make it into a small group in the finale but even though he is fast, some will always be faster than him. Furthermore, he may have to sacrifice himself for Felline.

 

Philippe Gilbert won this race during his dominant 2011 season but he is clearly no longer the same rider. In the last few races, he has been strong but it has been evident that Van Avermaet is one step ahead. Hence, he will probably have to play a support role and may only be allowed to play his card by attacking from a bit further out. However, Gilbert can never be ruled out in a race that suits him down to the ground.

 

Rui Costa has always been very strong in this race which was part of the foundation for his Worlds win in 2013. He had to abandon the Tour and only returned to racing in Plouay so his condition is uncertain. However, he has always gone into these races with limited racing and that has not prevented him from doing well. He is strong on short climbs and fast in an uphill sprint but there are several riders who are faster and he may have to ride in support of Ulissi.

 

Finally, the LottoNL-Jumbo pair of Wilco Kelderman and Robert Gesink deserve a mention. Gesink is a former winner of this race which is a bit of a surprise. Usually, one would say that the course is too easy for him but he was surprisingly strong in the uphill sprint in 2013. This year he is back to his best but it remains to be seen how he is doing as he hasn’t been racing since he abandoned the Tour de Pologne. Wilco Kelderman is suited to this course too as he is also fast in an uphill sprint. He was good in the Eneco Tour but hasn’t raced since so it remains to be seen how he is doing.

 

***** Greg Van Avermaet

**** Michael Matthews, Tom-Jelte Slagter

*** Fabio Felline, Julian Alaphilippe, Matti Breschel, Tiesj Benoot, Diego Ulissi, Sep Vanmarcke

** Michal Kwiatkowski, Tony Gallopin, Michael Albasini, Bauke Mollema, Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa, Wilco Kelderman, Robert Gesink

* Ramunas Navardauskas, Alexis Vuillermoz, Jan Bakelants, Simon Geschke, Sergey Lagutin, Ilnur Zakarin, Alexei Tsatevich, Rein Taaramae, Jakob Fuglsang, Alexey Lutsenko, Rigoberto Uran, Adam Yates, Simon Yates, Romain Bardet, Warren Barguil, Roman Kreuziger, Andriy Grivko, Arthur Vichot, Davide Formolo, Michael Woods, Jurgen Roelandts

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