Chris Froome and Richie Porte left no one doubting their superiority in the race and have forced lots of riders to set new targets for the rest of the race. Some of them will get a chance to strike back already tomorrow when the riders tackle the second stage in the Pyrenees and with a relatively easy finish it is a stage that has breakaway written all over it.

 

The course

There will be little room for recovery for the GC contenders in the second week as the first big mountain stage is followed by another tough test in the Pyrenees. While the first fight took place on a brand new mountain, stage 11 will see the riders tackle some of the most famous climbs of the Tour de France history. With several tough climbs and a longer distance, it is a harder stage than the previous one but with a much easier finale, it is probably not be a day for the GC riders to make a major difference.

 

The course brings the riders over 188km from Pau which always features on the Tour de France course, to Cauterets. Like the previous stage, it can be split into two parts, with the first half taking place on the plains north of the mountains and the second half taking place in the Pyrenean heartland.

 

First the riders will travel in a southeasterly and easterly direction along mainly flat roads that only includes a few smaller climbs. The category 3 Cote de Loucrup (2km, 7%) comes at the 48.5km mark and is followed by the intermediate sprint just 8km later. It is slightly uphill on a long straight road, with the final kilometre averaging 1.9%. The rolling terrain continues with the category 4 Cote de Bagneres-de-Bigorre (1.4km, 6.1%) and the category 3 Cote de Mauvezin (2.7km, 6%) at the 61.5km, and 74.5km marks respectively.

 

After 85.5km of racing, the riders reach the feed zone in La-Barthe-de-Neste and this signals the start of the hostilities. The riders will now heard in a southerly direction straight into the Pyrenees and after 20km of flat roads they get to the bottom of the famous category 1 climb Col d’Aspin (12km, 6.5%). It has a relatively easy start and then gets steeper near the top where the gradient mostly stays between 7.5% and 9.5% over a 4km distance. The descent leads straight to the bottom of the most famous climb in the Pyrenees, the category HC Col du Tourmalet (17.1km, 7.3%) which is back on the course after a one-year absence. Like the Aspin, it has an easy start but then it turns into a regular monster with a constant gradient of 8-10% for more than 10km.

 

The Tourmalet is by far the hardest challenge in this stage and summits with 41km to go. The final part is mainly downhill and includes a gradually descending valley road before the riders get to the bottom of the final difficulty, the category 3 Cote de Cauterets (6.4km, 5%) which summits 3.3km from the finish. It has a steep bottom section and a 10% section near the top but otherwise it is not a tough climb. After the top, there’s a short flat section before the riders climb for another kilometre at an average of 7-8%. The final 2km are mainly flat, with just a short 200m rise just after the flamme rouge. There are several hairpin bends between the 4km and 3km to go marks but from there the road is only slightly winding, with the final small bend leading onto the 400m finishing straight on a 5.5m wide road.

 

Cauterets has not hosted a Tour de France stage finish for more than a decade but it has often been on the course for the Route du Sud. In 2011, Anthony Charteau took a solo win here while Noan Lelarge won a time trial three years earlier. In 2003, the Vuelta a Espana had a summit finish on the Cambasque climb in Cauterets and it was Michael Rasmussen who distanced Felix Cardenas by 55 seconds to take his first stage win in a grand tour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The brutal heat was a factor in today’s stage and for riders who prefer to race in the cold, there will be no mercy. Tomorrow will be another brutally hot day as the maximum temperature in Cauterets will be 32 degrees. It will be bright sunshine all day but there is a 25% risk of thunderstorms at the end of the stage.

 

There will barely be any wind as only a light breeze will be blowing from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind and then a crosswind before the turn into a tailwind in the run-in to Col ‘Aspin. There will be a headwind on that climb and the descent while there will be a tailwind and a crosswind on the Tourmalet. There will again be a crosswind on the descent and a headwind in the valley before the riders turn into a tailwind at the bottom of the final climb.

 

The favourites

Yesterday we expected Chris Froome to put significant time into his rivals on a climb that was perfectly suited to a dominant performance as it had a steep first section to make the difference and a flatter top section where his rouleur skills could maximize his gains. The Brit turned out to be just as strong as we had expected and only bad luck seems to have the potential to deny him a second overall win in Paris.

 

However, Richie Porte’s performance caught us by surprise. As we claimed in our overall preview, the Australian was always going to be one of the best five climbers in the race but after his laid-back attitude in the first few stages, it seemed that he was far from his best condition. However, today’s performance very closely resembled the one that saw the Sky pair make it a 1-2 on Ax-3-Domaines in 2013.

 

While the battle for the top position could be over, there’s still a lot to play for in the fight for the podium which shapes up to be a close contest. However, the stage also left a lot of riders out of the GC battle and they now have to refocus on new goals. An obvious target would be to win a stage and the first chance to do so already comes tomorrow.

 

Today’s stage was a tough one but it was only an appetizer of what is to come in the rest of the Tour. From now on almost every stage includes a significant amount of climbing. Tejay van Garderen has described it as a marathon where consistency will be the key and there will be very little room for recovery for the overall contenders who have to be on their toes evert day.

 

Often the first mountain stages in the Tour de France have been rather easy as ASO have wanted to keep the battle for the win exciting until the end. This year they have changed the trend slightly as the Pyrenean stages are much tougher than you would usually see for the first mountain range of the Tour. The three stages in the Pyrenees have been designed in a way that makes them harder and harder until the all reaches a crescendo in Thursday’s monstrous challenge which includes a summit finish at the top of the famous Plateau de Beille climb.

 

Tomorrow’s stage includes the Col du Tourmalet and the Col d’Aspin which are two of the hardest ascents in the Pyrenees. The overall amount of climbing is a lot more than it was in today’s stage. Nonetheless, the stage is less likely to create separation between the overall contenders. The final climb is unlikely to be hard enough to make a difference between the best riders and they will mostly have their eyes on Thursday’s much harder stage. Unless the battle starts already on the Tourmalet, a select group of favourites is likely to arrive in Cauterets together.

 

That opens the door for a successful breakaway. Today we had the first small battle but the peloton still managed to send off a small two-rider break after just a few kilometres of fast racing. Tomorrow things are likely to be different. This is the biggest chance for a breakaway in the Pyrenees and many riders have red-circled this day as a perfect opportunity. With a tailwind in the first part, we can expect a brutally fast start and there is a big chance that it will take more than an hour for the break to get clear. This means that there is a chance for the green jersey contenders to go for maximum points in the intermediate sprint which comes after 56.5km of racing as the break might now have gone clear yet at that point. That will make it possible for André Greipel to add to his lead. The first KOM sprints will also come into play for the mountains jersey contenders, either if they have made the right breakaway or if the break has not gone clear at that point.

 

This kind of stage is always a strange one. The first part is relatively flat and this means that luck plays a big role in joining the right break. In fact, the strong rouleurs have a better chance than the tiny climbers. However, they don’t have much of a chance to finish it off while the ones who excel in the second part will find the opening part tough. That means that it is hard to predict which riders will make it into the break but only a select few have a chance to win the stage in this tough finale.

 

When the break finally gets clear, the peloton will take a breather while the escapees will have to gauge their efforts wisely to save energy for the two big climbs. Sky will control the peloton but this is not a day for Chris Froome to ride offensively. They will be pleased to see the escapees take away the bonus seconds and so they will leave it to others to chase it down.

 

What can prevent the break from staying away are three possible scenarios. First of all the finale is tailor-made for Alejandro Valverde and so Movistar might want to set up the Spanish champion for a stage win close to their home country. It will be hard for Quintana to win the race but Valverde could make it two Movistar riders on the podium and so the bonus seconds could become important. Secondly, some key teams may have missed the move and want to open the race again for late attacks on Aspin and Tourmalet. It is very likely that Europcar will keep the break at a short leash if Pierre Rolland has missed out and then try to send him across when the serious climbing starts.

 

Finally, there is a chance that the GC teams want to battle on the Tourmalet. If that’s the case, it will be hard for the break to stay away. Today Froome showed that he is hard to battle in a head-to-head battle on the final climb so his rivals might have to try a different tactic. The descent from the Tourmalet could be an opportunity and so Tinkoff-Saxo and Movistar may want to try to isolate him on the main climb. However, that will be nearly impossible after the Brits really played with the muscles and so Froome is likely to have a few teammates at his side to bring back attacks on the descent. Furthermore, his descending skills are much better than people generally tend to think. In fact, he matched all accelerations by Alberto Contador in 2013. If he decides not to take any risks, it will be hard for anyone to stay clear in the valley where there will be a headwind.

 

However, Movistar may still try. In 2013, Porte spectacularly cracked one day after their dominant ride and Froome found himself isolated in the main group. This could spell the end for the breakaway and  open the door for a surprise winner, just like in the dramatic stage in 2013 when Movistar and Garmin managed to isolate the Brit. Back then, Dan Martin and Jakob Fuglsang escaped on the final climb and it was the Irishman who won the final sprint while Froome survived a very dangerous situation without any time loss.

 

Hence, the stage has three possible outcomes. An early breakaway could make it to the finish, we could get a sprint from a group of favourites and we could have late attacks out of a select front group after a big battle on the Tourmalet.

 

We have no doubt that this stage is a big goal for Pierre Rolland who loves to go on long-distance attacks in the mountains. In the past he has won two stages by attacking from afar and a mythical stage with Aspin and Tourmalet must have whetted his appetite. He is out of the GC battle after he lost time on the cobbles and the crosswinds and now his goal is a stage win and the mountains jersey. Tomorrow’s stage offers a lot of points for the latter so it must be a big objective for him.

 

Rolland has been climbing excellently well. He finished with the best on the Mur-de-Bretagne and was 20th on the Mur de Huy. Those performances are incredible for him as he doesn’t have much explosiveness and always starts such climbs far from the front. Several times we have pointed out that he is riding amazingly well and today he just confirmed that impression. If he can make it into the right break, it will be very hard for anyone to bring him back and for his companions to follow him on the Tourmalet.

 

The big challenge for him will be to join the breakaway but he will have a full team at his disposal. If he misses out, his team will probably try to make it possible for him to bridge the gap on the Col d’Aspin. Strong riders like Thomas Voecker, Romain Sicard, Cyril Gautier and Perrig Quemeneur are strong enough to join him in the break and they will be able to set him up for a solo attack on the Tourmalet. That makes Rolland our favourite to win the stage.

 

Until now, Orica-GreenEDGE have had much success in this race. The first week had lots of opportunities for their riders but their puncheurs have all abandoned or are injured.  Their main goal now is to win a stage in the mountains with one of the Yates brothers who are both riding excellently well. Due to injuries for Adam, Simon has had the best season and got the race off to a fantastic start in the time trial and on the Mur de Huy. However, he is now suffering from a sore throat which was evident on the Mur-de-Bretagne.

 

As opposed to this, Adam is riding himself into form. He was very strong on the Mur-de-Bretagne where he finished in the top 10 despite having been on the attack earlier on the climb. In last year’s Dauphiné, he proved that he is strong enough to ride with the best on the big climbs and he confirmed that with a great ride in today’s stage. Unlike Rolland, he is fast in a sprint and it won’t be easy for anyone to drop him on the Tourmalet. This makes him an obvious stage winner candidate.

 

Rafael Valls has had an amazing 2014 season but in this race he has not had any GC ambitions. Instead, he has been riding near the back of the field and has lost plenty of time. Rui Costa is now out of the GC battle and this opens the door for Valls to chase a stage win. Today he proved that he is in great condition and he would love to finally get the stage win he missed in 2010. If he joins the right break, he will be one of the best climbers and has a chance to save the race for Lampre-Merida.

 

If it comes down to a battle between the favourites, Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favourite. The Spaniard has deliberately started the race below his best level as he is also aiming for the Vuelta but now he claims to be close to 100%. There are definitely better climbers than him and he may get into trouble if they go full gas on the Tourmalet. However, he is a fantastic descender and will be very strong on the final climb. None of the GC riders is going to beat him in a sprint but if he only has Quintana at his side, it will be hard for him to prevent anyone from attacking.

 

We have already compared this stage to stage 9 of the 2013 Tour where Daniel Martin escaped on the final climb to win the stage. The Irishman would love to repeat that performance. He is clearly in very good condition even though he suffered in today’s stage. As he is no longer a GC threat, he won’t be heavily watched and can now fully focus on the stage win that has always been his goal. His best chance is to go on the attack but with his fast sprint he might even have the chance to beat Valverde in a sprint battle.

 

Astana have to set new goals and this opens the door for Jakob Fuglsang to chase success. The Dane rode strongly to 13th in today’s stage and will be keen to grab his own opportunities now. He is strong both on the flats and on the climbs and so the stage suits him well. Even if it comes back together in the finale, he could be strong enough to make a late attack and deny Valverde a chance to sprint for the win.

 

Ryder Hesjedal was hoping to go for GC in this race but he has had to shelve those plans as he lost time in the crosswinds and on the cobbles. However, he seems to be riding well. He is probably not at the level he had in the Giro where he was among the best in the final week, but that won’t be necessary to win from a breakaway. Today he took it easy to save energy for tomorrow. He is very strong on this kind of long climbs and he has the power on the flats to join the break. He is not as fast as Yates in a sprint but he has a decent kick in this kind of finish.

 

Already early in the race it was clear that Serge Pauwels is riding extremely well but few would have expected him to finish in the top 15 in the first big mountain stage of the race. That must have given him a lot of confidence and he will be ready to go on the attack in tomorrow’s stage. He is strong on the flats too and should be able to hit the right break. In 2009, he was spectacularly denied a stage win in the Giro by his team and now he wants to make redemption.

 

Tony Gallopin is not a pure climber but he has improved his climbing a lot. He is clearly in excellent condition at the moment and has made it clear that he wants to attack in the mountains. Today he proved that he has improved his climbing a lot but as he has suddenly emerged as a top 10 contender, it will be hard for him to get freedom. On the other hand, he would love to chase the yellow jersey like he did last year. Furthermore, he has a chance to beat Valverde in a sprint finish. Finally, he can make a late attack if it comes back together.

 

Daniel Navarro has been riding himself into form after an injury-marred start to the season and is ready to strike in the mountains. His GC campaign is over so he will try to attack in the Pyrenees and the Alps. His best chance may come in the latter mountain range but he will be keen to show himself close to his home country. He has finished in the top 10 both the Vuelta and the Tour and is one of the best climbers in the race. He likes a long climb like the Tourmalet where he will try to drop his rivals as he doesn’t have a fast sprint. Today he seemed to take it easy to be ready for tomorrow.

 

Tanel Kangert is another in-form Astana rider who will be keen to go on the attack after Nibali has now faded. The Estonian has ridden the Giro where he was amazingly strong in the final week and he is clearly still in super condition. Today he stayed with Nibali all the way to the finish and seemed to hold a lot back. He is strong on the flats and on the climbs which makes him a strong contender.

 

Like Hesjedal, Steven Kruijswijk was amazingly strong in the Giro where he was one of the very best climbers. He is not at the same level in this race but he claims to be feeling good. He is aiming at the mountains jersey and a stage win in the mountains and so tomorrow’s stage is a good opportunity for him to go on the attack. If he joins the break, he will probably be among the strongest on the Tourmalet and in the Giro he proved that he has the ability to hit the right breakaway.

 

Another rider who is targeting the mountains jersey is Julian Arredondo. The Colombian won the blue jersey in last year’s Giro and he wants to repeat that achievement here. He has had a terrible time since last year’s edition of the Italian grand tour but his condition is growing. He is still not at his best as he was unable to finish in the top 10 on the two walls which were tailor-made for him but he was still up there with the best. His big challenge will be to join the right break in the flat section but his punchy climbing skills make it a perfect finish for him.

 

MTN-Qhubeka have more cards to play. Louis Meintjes and Jacques Janse van Rensburg are both great climbers who are aiming for a stage win. The big challenge for them will be to join the early break but they are both climbing well enough to finish it off.

 

Thomas Voeckler has had a hard time recently but today he showed that he is back in form. That has definitely boosted his confidence and he is a master in picking the right break and finishing it off. Bob Jungels and Jerome Coppel also both have the strength on the flats and the climbs to do well in this stage and especially the former is strong at the moment.

 

Movistar might want to go on the attack to chase a stage win instead of setting Valverde up for the win and this could open the door for Gorka Izagirre and Winner Anacona who are strong at the moment.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo know that they don’t win the race and so there are now opportunities for the likes of Rafal Majka, Michael Rogers and Roman Kreuziger to attack. The Pole looked very strong in today’s stage and seemed to save energy in the finale. Laurens Ten Dam had a remarkable comeback from injury to ride strongly in today’s stage and if he can overcome the hurdle in the flat part, he will be one of the strongest. Alexis Vuillermoz will also be keen to give it a go.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Pierre Rolland (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Adam Yates (breakaway), Rafael Valls (breakaway)

Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde (sprint), Daniel Martin (sprint or breakaway), Jakob Fuglsang (breakaway), Ryder Hesjdal (breakaway), Serge Pauwels (breakaway)

Jokers: Tony Gallopin (sprint or breakaway), Daniel Navarro (breakaway), Tanel Kangert (breakaway), Steven Kruijswijk (breakaway), Julian Arredondo (breakaway), Louis Meintjes (breakaway), Thomas Voeckler (breakaway), Bob Jungels (breakaway), Jerome Coppel (breakaway), Gorka Izagirre (breakaway), Winner Anacona (breakaway), Rafal Majka (breakaway), Roman Kreuziger (breakaway), Michael Rogers (breakaway), Laurens Ten Dam (breakaway), Simon Yates (breakaway), Alexis Vuillermoz (breakaway)