Chris Froome again proved that he will be very hard to beat when he defended himself well on both the ascents and the descents in today’s hugely dramatic stage. However, he faces another tough challenge tomorrow and even though stage 18 is probably the least selective of the four days in the Alps, it can become a dangerous one as it is perfectly suited to attacks from afar.

 

The course

There will be no chance to rest for the GC riders as another tough mountain stage awaits them just one day after the opening battle in the Alps. However, despite being the longest of the four Alpine stages and including one of the most famous climbs in the area, stage 18 is probably the least selective of the four courses. Most of the climbs are relatively short and the hardest climb is not very steep. As there will be no summit finish, several GC riders will have their eyes on the final two stages in the Alps where more damage can be done.

 

The stage brings the riders over 186.5km from Gap to Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne in the heart of the Alps. It consists of a long northerly run on the outskirts of the mountains where there are lots of smaller climbs before they turn to the northeast to head into the real mountains in the second half. Right from the beginning, they go up the category 2 Col Bayard (6.3km, 7%) which will make for a very tough start to the stage. Then the terrain gets significantly flatter as it is generally descending for a while, with only the category 3 Rampe du Motty (2.3km, 8.3%) breaking the legs along the way.

 

The descending ends after 60km of racing and from there it is generally uphill for 30km. The climbing is highly irregular and so has been divided into three smaller climbs, the category 3 Cote de la Mure (2.7km, 7.5%), the category 3 Col de Malissol (2km, 8.7%) and the category 2 Col de la Morte (3.1km, 8.4%) which are all relatively steep.

 

The summit of the latter ascent comes at the 85km mark and leads to a descent and a gradual riding road in the valley. Here the riders will contest the intermediate sprint at the 107.5km mark. It is a tough one as there’s a tough 1.5km climb starting just 3km from the line and after the top, the road is still uphill all the way to the line, albeit with no major technical challenges.

 

The slightly rising roads continue for a while until the riders get to the bottom of the main challenge, the category HC Col du Glandon (21.7km, 5.1%). The average gradient is deceptive as there is a short descent after 7km of climbing and another descent 5km from the summit. The rest of the climb is highly irregular with several steep kilometres averaging 9-10% in the lower sections before it gets easier near the top. However, the climb gets steeper at the end, with the final kilometre averaging 8.7%.

 

The summit is located 39.5km from the finish and leads to a long descent and a short section of slightly ascending valley roads. Then it is time for the hugely spectacular Lacets de Montvernier (3.4km, 8.2%) which has no less than 18 hairpin bends over the short distance of 3.4km. It is very regular with a constant gradient of 8-9%. The riders had the chance to check it out in the Dauphiné where it featured in the final stage but back then it was located much earlier in the stage. Now the summit comes just 10km from the finish and after a short climb, they are mainly downhill. The descent has a few hairpin bends and ends with 4km to go. From there the road is very slightly uphill and includes a technical finale. There are several turns in the penultimate kilometre and then the riders turn right in a roundabout just after the flamme rouge. From there, the roads bends constantly to the left until the riders get to the 75m finishing straight on a 5.5m wide road.

 

Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne has often been visited by the Tour de France but the finale with Lacets de Montvernier is a novelty. It last hosted a stage finish in 2010 when Sandy Casar won the sprint from a breakaway that had been joined by Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador who had significantly distanced their rivals on the Col de la Madeleine. It has often hosted stages of the Dauphiné too, most recently in 2011 when Lars Boom won the prologue.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Alberto Contador asked for rain in the Alps but he didn’t find any in today’s stage even though the forecasts predicted a 75% risk of thunderstorms. However, wet conditions are again in store for tomorrow’s stage. Thursday is expected to be a cloudy day with a 60% risk of rain in the second half of the stage. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 28 degrees so it will also be slightly colder than it has been recently.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will general have a cross-headwind all day. At the bottom of the descent from the Col du Glandon, they will turn into a cross-tailwind for the final climb. There will be a tailwind on the descent and a crosswind in the final 2km.

 

The favourites

Everybody tried their best to challenge Chris Froome in today’s stage: Astana made it hard on the Col d’Allos, Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde tried to attack on the descent and Nairo Quintana attacked repeatedly on the two main ascents. However, the Brit proved that he is strong in all terrains and never gave an inch to his key rivals.

 

Valverde has again admitted that the race leader will be very hard to beat so it was no surprise that Movistar at one point seemed to be riding more for Valverde’s third place than for the chance to win the race. If it was only for the chance to dethrone Froome, it would have been better for them to still have Contador as a potential threat to the Sky leader but Movistar preferred to make sure that the Tinkoff-Saxo captain is no longer a strong podium contender. As Tejay van Garderen also abandoned, it seems that Valverde will finally achieve his life-long dream of a podium spot in Paris.

 

However, Movistar get another chance to challenge Sky tomorrow in stage 18. On paper, it is the least selective of the Alpine stages as it has no summit finish. However, it is one of those days where bad legs can have disastrous consequences as the attacks are likely to start already on the Col du Glandon. If you lose contact on the main climb, you are likely to lose minutes at the finish.

 

The stage has all the ingredients that make it perfect for long-distance attacks and there is no doubt that we will see great action on Glandon. At the same time, team tactics always play a huge role in this kind of stage so we are likely to see a repeat of today’s frantic opening of the stage. All the strong climbers know that it is a perfect day to go for a stage win as the break is likely to make it to the finish. At the same time, Sky, Movistar, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana all want to have riders in the front group. This means that we should see a constant reshuffling of the situation in the first part of the stage as everybody tries to control which riders are ahead.

 

There are two possible outcomes of the opening skirmishes. Today a big group with riders from the four main teams got clear and this could happen again. The second scenario is that a smaller group with none of the teams represented will make it. It is hard to imagine that we will get a group with riders from just one or more of the main teams as they will control each other firmly.

 

The first part of the stage does not have any major climbers but it is still very tough. The first 6.3km are all uphill and the next section is lumpy. Today’s start was pretty similar and made the group explode to pieces. This is likely to happen again tomorrow and so the most likely scenario is that a very big group gets clear.

 

This is the kind of stage that has no obvious favourite to it is hard to imagine that the GC teams will try to bring the break back. When the break has formed, Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe will probably set a steady pace for a little while to allow a regrouping to take place. This will allow the escapees to build a significant advantage and they are likely to decide the race while the GC battle will rage further back.

 

As there will be a headwind, it makes no sense for anyone to try anything before they get to the Col du Glandon. The descent from the Col de la Morte is difficult but as there is a long section in the valley, Sky will be able to bring everything back. Hence, we will have the real fight on the Glandon.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo no longer have anything to lose. Alberto Contador was still in podium contention before today’s stage but now he is willing to risk everything. We expect him to attack from very early on the main climb and so Tinkoff-Saxo will probably try to make it hard right from the bottom. Hence, it will be a pretty small group that will battle for time on the steep slopes.

 

With a headwind, it will be hard for anyone to make a big difference. Sky have proved to be very strong as Geraint Thomas and Wout Poels both stayed with Froome until less than 10 riders were left in the main group. Furthermore, Movistar and Astana are not willing to let Contador gain much time so we expect him to be brought back relatively quickly if he tries a move. Astana still hope for the podium so they will try to shake things up with an in-form Michele Scarponi and we expect Vincenzo Nibali to try near the top. Toda Froome didn’t let him go but tomorrow it might be different. Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana will probably also try but they will be closely marked by Froome who is likely to follow their moves.

 

Like today Nibali and Valverde may try to attack on the descent, especially if the roads are wet, but as he proved today, Froome is a solid descender. As the descent is not very difficult, Froome is unlikely to get dropped. However, the Movistar pair definitely hope to have isolated Froome by the time they get to the valley where he will be vulnerable.

 

The amount of flat roads is limited but it will be possible to attack the race leader in this section. He will have to gauge his effort carefully and may have to let Nibali, Contador and maybe Valverde go. However, Quintana will get nowhere so those two riders are likely to finish together but it won’t be impossible for Nibali, Valverde and Contador to gain a bit of time. The Lacets de Montvernier is a final chance to go on the attack and we are likely to see some aggression here but again it is hard to imagine that Quintana will be able to get rid of Froome.

 

As said, we expect an escape to decide the stage. The start is uphill and even though the next section has no major climbs, we will see the strong riders be part of the action. It is definitely no coincidence that the same riders have been in virtually every single move over the last few days and so we are likely to see a battle between many of the riders that were part of today’s action.

 

Like today, some of the weaker climbers may try to anticipate the best but it won’t be easy to repeat a Geschke move. Glandon is harder than Col d’Allos and the distance from the start of the main climb to the finish is much longer than it was today. It won’t be impossible but it will be easier for the best climbers to make the difference on the main climb. With a headwind, we may have a small group at the top and then they will fight it out on the descent and the final climb which is a perfect launch pad for an attack. Most likely we will get a solo winner but with a flat finish, a fast sprint is of course no disadvantage.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez has already won two stages in this race and since he triumphed on Plateau de Beille, he has mostly been saving energy. Today he tried to join the early moves but he failed to hit the right one. Later he decided to save his legs for tomorrow so he will be fresher than the riders who were part of today’s break.

 

Tomorrow is an important day for the mountains classification so Rodriguez will do his utmost to be part of the action. The biggest obstacle for him is the fact that the start is not too difficult. He is not the strongest on the flats and he doesn’t have a strong team to bring back early moves.

 

However, if he makes it into the break, he will be hard to beat. In stage 12, he proved that his condition is pretty good and he has the skills to shine in this finale. He is a great descender and has a fast sprint and the short, steep Lacets de Montvernier is tailor-made for an Ardennes specialist like Rodriguez. The Spaniard is out favourite to come out on top.

 

With Tejay van Garderen out of the race, Samuel Sanchez has suddenly taken over the BMC leadership and he will be keen to save the race for the American team. He has been getting better and better and is always one of the best in the third week of a grand tour. He is in GC contention but is no immediate threat and so the big teams won’t watch him. Today Mathias Frank showed that it is hard for the top 10 to control the opening phase so there is a solid chance that Sanchez will find himself in the early break. He has all the skills to come out on top as he is one of the best climbers, and excellent descender and fast in a sprint. Sanchez could turn things around for BMC one day after their big loss.

 

Thibaut Pinot got the race off to a very bad start but his legs have now come around. He was with the favourites in the stage to Plateau de Beille and since then he has been in virtually every single move that mattered. Today he was in all the key groups before he finally made it into the move that decided the stage. In the end he paid for his poor descending skills and the wise move by Geschke but he proved that he was clearly the strongest on the climb.

 

Pinot used a lot of energy in today’s stage but that was the same for everybody else. Tomorrow he will again try to go on the attack and he is clearly among the strongest riders at the moment. If he joins the right group, he is likely to be one of the best climbers and has two difficult climbs to make a difference. Furthermore, the descent from the Glandon is not as difficult as today’s so his descending should be less of a disadvantage. Finally, he has a reasonable sprint and will be extremely motivated after today’s near-miss. An in-form Pinot is one of the big favourites to win the stage.

 

Pierre Rolland is clearly not as strong as he was in the Pyrenees. He has lost a bit of ground for a few days and is no longer a big GC threat. Today Mathias Frank proved that it is not easy for anyone to control the early part of the race and so GC contenders have the chance to get into the moves. Rolland’s main goal will be to win one of the final stages and tomorrow could be a good day for him.

 

Unlike Rodriguez and Pinot who don’t have very strong teams, Rolland has lots of strong climbers to support him. If he can get riders like Romain Sicard, Cyril Gautier, Perrig Quemeneur and Thomas Voeckler into the move too, he will have support that will be crucial in keeping things together. He is clearly riding well and he is a good descender. His main problem is that he is not a fast finisher and so needs to make the difference on the climbs.

 

Romain Bardet lost a bit of time in today’s stage but still moved into 11th in the overall standings. That makes him a GC threat and this will make it harder for him to join the right move. However, in a frantic opening phase it will be hard for Giant-Alpecin and Trek to keep him under control. He is riding strongly at the moments and has the right skills to excel in this kind of finale. He is not very fast in a sprint but he strong on short climbs and is a great descender.

 

Jakob Fuglsang has his eyes on a stage win and the mountains jersey. He has been desperately chasing the right break for a couple of days but has failed to get into the right one since the Plateau de Beille stage. Tomorrow he will try again and he is clearly riding strongly. However, due to his position in the mountains classification, Rodriguez will watch him closely so he is unlikely to make it into a group without the Spaniard who will be hard to beat. This makes it difficult for him to win the stage.

 

Andrew Talansky’s condition is clearly improving and with today’s good performance he finds himself in top 10 contention. That will make it harder for him to be part of the action but as already said, it won’t be impossible. In fact tomorrow’s stage suit him a bit better as it is longer and has more climbing. That is great for a diesel engine like Talansky. He is not a great winner so it will be hard for him to come out on top but as he is clearly one of the freshest riders, it won’t be impossible for him.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo will try to have riders in the early break to go to be able to help Contador later in the stage but it could also give them the chance to go for a stage win. This could open the door for Roman Kreuziger who is getting better after a slow start. The Czech has been able to stay with the best for a long time so there is a big chance that he will turn out to be the best climber in the break.

 

Astana have similar plans. Today Tanel Kangert was in the break and the Estonian could get his chance again tomorrow. However, their strongest rider is clearly Michele Scarponi whose old legs have really come around in the final part of the race. If he gets the chance to go for the win, we doubt that anyone will be able to beat the wily Italian.

 

Today Sky put a rider in the break for the first time and tomorrow they will do so again. The attackers may have to assist their leader later in the stage but today the door was open for Nicolas Roche to go for glory. A similar chance could be opened for an in-form Wout Poels who is clearly strong enough to finish it off at the moment.

 

Rigoberto Uran is still not at his best but today he used his great fighting spirit to take fine third place. Tomorrow he may try again as he is one of the freshest riders in the peloton. He seems to miss a little bit to follow the best on the climbs but he is good on shorter ascent, a great descender and has a fast sprint.

 

Steven Kruijswijk was on the attack in today’s stage and is likely to try again tomorrow. However, he is clearly not in his Giro condition which will make it hard for him to come out on top. To win the stage, he will probably have to anticipate the in-form climbers – especially as he is not a fast finisher – but if he can do so it won’t be impossible for him to come out on top.

 

Alexis Vuillermoz has already won one stage in this race and he is still riding reasonably well. Ag2r will have an aggressive approach to the stage and Vuillermoz will be one of their cards. Another candidate is Christophe Riblon who has looked very strong in the two last stages and has a big chance to be in the break in a stage that suits him really well.

 

Bob Jungels rode very strongly in today’s stage as he even had to slow down to wait for Bauke Mollema. Tomorrow he may get a chance to go on the attack. He won’t be the best climber but with his good rouleur skills he could be the rider to copy Geschke.

 

Finally, Bauke Mollema and Warren Barguil deserve a mention. They will probably try to get into the break but as they are tin the top 10, it won’t be easy. However, if they manage it, they will be some of the strongest.

 

In the unlikely case that the GC riders have to fight for the win, Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favourite as he is the fastest in a sprint. However, there is always a chance that other riders will attack in the flat final section and it won’t be easy to bring it back together for a sprint finish. This could open the door for riders like Vincenzo Nibali, Alberto Contador, Robert Gesink and maybe even Geraint Thomas to ride away with the win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Joaquim Rodriguez

Other winner candidates: Samuel Sanchez, Thibaut Pinot

Outsiders: Pierre Rolland, Romain Bardet, Jakob Fuglsang, Andrew Talansky, Roman Kreuziger, Michele Scarponi

Jokers: Tanel Kangert, Wout Poels, Rigoberto Uran, Steven Kruijswijk, Christophe Riblon, Alexis Vuillermoz, Winner Anacona, Bob Jungels, Bauke Mollema, Warren Barguil, Alejandro Valverde, Vincenzo Nibali, Alberto Contador, Robert Gesink