Mark Cavendish broke the drougt in the final opportunity for the sprinters before they go into survival mode. Meanwhile, the GC riders prepared themselves for their next small battle on the Mur-de-Bretagne but as most of them have their eyes on Sunday's team time trial, there is a big chance that a breakaway will ride away with the win on Brittany's most famous climb.

 

The course

It’s been a tough opening week during which almost every stage has had the potential to create time gaps. The first rest day and the Pyrenees are looming in the horizon and most of the GC riders have made it their first objective to get to the first major climbs unscathed. However, before they can take a well-deserved rest and prepare themselves for the first battle in the mountains, they face two tough stages in Bretagne whose lumpy terrain makes the second weekend of the race a dangerous one. In fact, the final two stages of the first week are some of the most difficult in the feared opening part of the race.

 

Bretagne is known for its cycling-mad spectators, narrow roads, small climbs and windy conditions and so it is only fitting that a week made up of successive classics ends in this part of the country. Among the many climbs in the region, the Mur de Bretagne is probably the most iconic and so it is even more fitting that the famous ascent plays host to the end of stage 8. The climb has been passed several times in the past but it wasn’t until 2011 that ASO decided to have a stage finish at the top of the ascent and this year they have decided to repeat the successful formula, giving the puncheurs a third chance to shine in the first week.

 

The course brings the riders over 181.5km from Rennes to the top of the Mur de Bretagne and consists of a mainly westerly run from the outskirts of the region into the Breton heartland. The first part of the stage is mainly flat but as the riders get closer to the famous cycling terrain in the area, the terrain gets hillier. However, there will only be one categorized climb apart from the final ascent, the category 4 Col du Mont Bel-Air (1.5km, 5.7%) which comes at the 99.5km mark. In fact, it signals the start of the more difficult part of the stage.

 

Shortly after the climb, the riders will descend to the bottom of a small hill that will be the scene of another tough intermediate sprint. It comes at the top of a 2km ascent that brings the riders up a slightly winding road and has an average gradient of 3.5-4%. From there, the riders will tackle numerous rolling hills on narrow, winding roads until they get to the bottom of the category 3 Mur de Bretagne (2km, 6.9%). The riders will turn left just after the 5km to go mark and then there will be a right hand turn at the bottom of the climb with 2km to go. From there, the road is almost straight with only two very slight bends, the final one leading to the 280m finishing straight on a 6.5m wide road. The climb has a very steep first part, with the first 500m averaging 10.1% and the next 500m% averaging 9.5%. Then it gets significantly easier with 500m of 5.5% and the final 500m are almost flat with a gradient of just 2.4%.

 

When Mur de Bretagne hosted a stage finish in 2011, several GC riders lost time as only 10 riders made it to the top in the group that sprinted for the win. It came down to a photo finish between Cadel Evans and Alberto Contador and after the latter had believed he had won the stage, it was the Australian who stepped onto the podium in a signal of what was to come later that year. However, the big surprise was delivered by Thor Hushovd who defied all expectations by defending his yellow jersey, arriving with the best on a day when riders like Andy Schleck, Levi Leipheimer, Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, Pierre Rolland, Ryder Hesjedal, Chris Horner, Ivan Basso, Robert Gesink and Bradley Wiggins all lost time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Bretagne is feared for its wind and rain but this year the region has welcomed the riders with unusually nice weather conditions. After today’s perfect day, it will be another nice ride through the cycling heartland in tomorrow’s stage. It will be a bit cloudier but there won’t be any rain. Furthermore, it will be a bit colder as the maximum temperature at the finish will be 23 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a headwind or a cross-headwind during their long ride through Britanny. After the intermediate sprint, there will be a section with crosswinds and then another headwind section before the riders turn into a crosswind with 15km to go. Apart from a short section in the city of Mur-de-Bretagne with tail- and headwind, it will be a crosswind for the rest of the stage, including on the final climb.

 

The favourites

Etixx-QuickStep have had a very successful Tour but for the mood in the camp, it was probably very important that Mark Cavendish won today's stage. If things don't pan out as he hopes in stage 15, he will have to wait until Paris to get his next chance. Now he can go into the next phase of the race with confidence as the main contenders prepare themselves to take centre stage.

 

When the GC riders have reached the top of the Mur de Bretagne, they will probably breathe a sigh of relief as it marks the end of seven very dangerous road stages. The most difficult stage of the first week – Sunday’s team time trial – still looms as a serious challenge but that effort is much more controllable and doesn’t pose the same risk for the riders. The first 7 road stages all had the potential to create significant time gaps and be the scene of big crashes and they have all had their share of drama. Many GC riders feared that they would arrive at the team time trial with depleted squads but most of the main contenders will be relieved to know that they have a full line-up of riders to support them in stage 9.

 

Before they get to the TTT, they have to survive tomorrow’s stage. With a finish on the Mur-de-Bretagne, it is dangerous to underestimate this ride through Britanny as the final climb has the potential to create time gaps. In 2011, several overall contenders lost time on the steep slopes and it will be important to have full focus on tomorrow’s stage instead of looking too much to the team time trial.

 

Nonetheless, the team time trial will have a huge impact on tomorrow’s stage. It is a big chance for riders like Peter Sagan and Alejandro Valverde. However, it is virtually unthinkable that their teams will spend just the smallest amount of energy in the chase behind the breakaway. Their big goal is to win the Tour with Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana respectively and they need all nine riders to be as fresh as possible tomorrow.

 

That opens the door for a breakaway. If Etixx-QuickStep had had the leader’s jersey, things could have been different but as Chris Froome is now in yellow, the situation has changed. The Brit will actually be pleased to get rid of the stressful position and it would be ideal scenario for him to give a non-dangerous rider a time buffer as they head into the Pyrenees. Sky will definitely not to anything to bring the break back.

 

If Orica-GreenEDGE had still had their best cards at 100%, they would have looked at this stage as a great opportunity but now their best chance probably is to join a break. That’s one team less to lend a hand to the chase. There’s only a small possibility that Cannondale-Garmin will try to bring the break back as it is a great stage for Daniel Martin. However, the American team are mainly here for GC and they are unlikely to chase alone all day just 24 hours before the team time trial.

 

Unless one of the smaller teams that have no GC ambitions, will miss the break, it seems that a breakaway is going to decide the stage. That would usually make most of teams very ambitious but tomorrow it might be different. Again most teams will prefer their riders not to go hard in a break all day as they need them for the team time trial. Hence, it is a great opportunity for teams that are not focused on GC and several formations won’t even try to be part of the break.

 

With a break having a good chance, we should have our first fast and aggressive start to a stage and it will probably take a little bit longer for the break to be formed. However, most teams don’t want 2 hours of constant attacking one day before the team time trial so the elastic will probably snap relatively early. From there, the break is likely to get a big advantage unless Cannondale-Garmin or one of the teams that have missed out, hit the front. In fact, they could get to the finish with a very big time gain as Sky will just be setting a steady pace on the front for most of the day.

 

Things could have been very stressful if it had been a windy day. The narrow roads and lumpy terrain make the stage a dangerous one but tomorrow there won’t be more than a slight breeze and it will mainly be a headwind. Hence, things won’t be too stressful. Of course the speed will ramp up in the few crosswind sections and when we get closer to the finish where everybody wants to be in a good position but for most of the day, it should be another relatively easy ride.

 

Meanwhile, the escapees are likely to prepare themselves for the battle for the stage win. There are a number of riders who have a great opportunity to ride themselves into yellow and if they have joined the break, they will be riding hard to maximize their time gains. With just a single point on offer on the Mont Bel-Air, there probably won’t be too much of a fight for the KOM sprint and it would be no surprise to see Daniel Teklehaimanot in the break for the third day in a row to bolster his position at the top of the standings.

 

The intermediate sprint is a tough one and here André Greipel, Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Bryan Coquard and Mark Cavendish will battle it out. Only Sagan has ambitions for the stage finish so the other sprinters will be allowed to go full gas. It’s a great sprint for Degenkolb and Coquard who have a big chance to beat Cavendish and Greipel in this one. However, with a breakaway up the road, their gains will be small.

 

If the break makes it, it will be important to stay attentive in the finale. Many of the escapees know that they won’t have a chance on the Mur and their best chance is to attack a little earlier. On such a short climb, they don’t need much of an advantage to make it to the finish so it won’t necessarily be the best climber/puncheur who wins the stage from a breakaway.

 

Even if the break makes it, there will be a big battle between the GC riders in the finale. For such a short climb, positioning is crucial and it will be a long sprint to get to the bottom in the front end of the peloton. It is another finale for puncheurs while the pure climbers will struggle to keep up with the more explosive guys who can make a difference in this kind of finale. However, there is a big difference between this ascent and the Mur du Huy which was steeper and had its most difficult section near the top, meaning that there were time differences between the very best riders. On this climb, the selection will be made on the steep lower slopes where a select front group is likely to emerge. It will always be possible for one or two riders to attack in the final kilometre which is significantly easier and it won’t be easy to keep things together. However, the most likely outcome is that a 10-20 rider group will arrive at the finish where they might battle it out for the stage win or just roll across the line if a break has taken the win.

 

Last year Tony Gallopin had an amazing Tour de France. First he conquered the yellow jersey in the Vosges and even though he only wore it for one day, he bounced back with a great stage win just a few days later. This year he seems to be even stronger. He did a solid time trial but it was the performance on the Mur de Huy that really underlined how well he is riding. He was able to match Joaquim Rodriguez for a long time and even though he paid for the effort and had to settle for fifth, it was a fantastic performance on a climb that should have been too steep for him.

 

Gallopin is third in GC and has a great chance to repeat last year’s stint in yellow. Lotto Soudal have no GC ambitions so they are not focused on the team time trial. There is no reason for Gallopin not to try to join the break and Froome will be happy to let him go. If he makes it into the break, he will have a big chance to take it all as he would both be the best-placed in GC and the favourite to win the stage.

 

It will be very hard for anyone to beat the Frenchman on a climb that suits him down to the ground. He is fast in an uphill sprint and likes these shorter ascents. His main problem will be to gauge his efforts as he also wants to maximize his time gains. That might force him to do a bit more work which could leave him with less energy for the finale. However, it would be a great idea for Lotto Soudal to send two riders in the break. If he has a domestique to help set the pace and control the late attacks, Gallopin will be in a great position. Even if it comes down to a battle between the favourites, Gallopin is one of the contenders. He will be hard to drop on the climb and he is one of the fastest in an uphill sprint.

 

This stage would have been a big goal for Orica-GreenEDGE but as Michael Matthews is suffering and Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini have left the race, they will now look to Simon Yates. The Brit has had an amazing season with top 10 results in Pais Vasco, Romandie and the Dauphiné. He was a bit uncertain about this race as he fell ill before the race but he has done two surprisingly good rides in the first week. His time trial was much better than expected and he finished in the top 10 on the Mur de Huy despite having been down in a crash earlier in the stage.

 

Yates is a pretty punchy rider and will be a contender in a battle between the favourites. However, he is unlikely to beat the faster riders in a sprint so his best chance will be to go on the attack. Orica-GreenEDGE no longer have any ambitions for the TTT so he will be free to go. If he joins the right break, he will be one of the obvious favourites.

 

Europcar no longer have any GC ambitions in this race so they won’t save anything for the team time trial where they will be among the weakest teams. That means that they will be keen to go on the attack and they have a very strong contender for this stage. Cyril Gautier is one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton and he is a master in picking the right breakaway. He has had an injury-marred season and has missed out on most of the races. However, he has reached peak condition in time for the Tour. He rode solidly in the French championships and was 23rd in Huy.

 

The finale is tailor-made for Gautier as he is very strong on short, steep climbs. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint and is a pretty punchy rider. He rode for the Bretagne team earlier in his career and will be eager to show himself in the region. He could be the rider who turns Europcar’s fortunes around in this race.

 

Gallopin is not the only option for Lotto Soudal. Tim Wellens is looking for a stage win in his maiden Tour de France and this stage suits him down to the ground. The Belgian is a Ardennes specialist who is strong on short climbs and is fast in a sprint. Last year he won the Ardennes stage in the Eneco Tour and the overall in that race. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be at his best at the moment. He was disappointed with his performance in Nationals and was dropped early in Huy. However, he has been saving energy for the stages that really suit him and this is one of them.

 

With Nacer Bouhanni out of the race, Cofidis have had to change their ambitions. Their best card is an in-form Julien Simon who has returned to his best form after a few disappointing seasons. Last year he won the Coupe de France race series and this year he has got up to speed after a slow start. He was strong in Huy on a climb that was too steep for him and he was in the top 10 in the puncheur finale in stage 6. If it comes down to a battle between the favourites, the final climb is probably a bit too hard but if he joins the right break he will be one of the favourites.

 

If it comes down to a battle between the favourites, Peter Sagan will be the man to beat. The Slovakian is back to his best after a difficult time and in this race he is actually sprinting better than ever before. In several sprints, he has even been faster than Greipel and Cavendish who are usually one step above him. On the other hand he is not climbing as well as he was in 2013 and it will be hard for him to stay with the best on the Mur de Bretagne. It will be touch and go for the Slovakian but if there are no big attacks, he should be able to make it. Of course he will be left more fatigued than the sprinters but he will benefit from the fact that the finale is almost flat. It will be difficult to prevent anyone from attacking in the easier final kilometre but if he is in the group, Roman Kreuziger will be ready to assist him.

 

Sagan’s big rival is of course Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard is clearly not at 100% but he seems to be getting better. He rode strongly on the cobbles and there is no way that he will be dropped on the Mur-de-Bretagne even if he is only at 90%. Among the climbers, he is by far the fastest and it will be hard for anyone to beat him. He will even have a big chance to beat Sagan who will be much more fatigued. His big challenge will be to prevent anyone from attacking in the easier final kilometre.

 

Greg Van Avermaet is another formidable winner candidate. With the team time trial coming up, he won’t be allowed to go on the attack but he will be ready to strike in the finale. As expected the Mur de Huy was too steep for him but this climb suits him much better. He likes this kind of uphill sprints and benefits from the fact that it gets a bit flatter in the finale. He is not as fast as Valverde and Sagan but he is not far off the mark.

 

Daniel Martin is riding very strongly at the moment. He was surprised by his good condition in the Dauphiné and did a good ride in Huy where he again paid the price for his poor positioning. Since then he has been set back by his usual bad luck as he crashed and lost time on the cobbles but that says nothing about his condition. This climb is tailor-made for him as he is fast in an uphill sprint. He would have preferred it to be steeper and will have a hard time against the likes of Valverde and Sagan but he has an outside chance.

 

Bretagne won’t allow a break to get clear without at least one rider from their team as they are riding on home soil. Their best card in this stage is Pierrick Fedrigo who rode very strongly in the spring season and leads the Coupe de France race series. Unfortunately, he has not hit the same kind of condition for the summer and rode poorly at the French championships. However, he has been saving energy in the first week for this stage which suits him really well. He is no longer the rider he once was but he is better than most at finishing a breakaway off in a successful way.

 

Trek will probably save energy for the team time trial as their main goal is to keep Bauke Mollema in GC contention. However, Julian Arredondo won’t be able to contribute much to that stage so it might be a good idea to send him on the attack in a stage that suits him very well. He has been far from his best condition since last year’s Giro but now he is getting better. He was strong in Switzerland and was in the top 15 on the Mur de Huy. He likes these short, punchy climbs and has a fast sprint. He would have preferred it to be steeper but he will be hard to beat if he joins the right break. He will also try his hand if it comes down to a battle between the favourites.

 

Pierre Rolland and Daniel Navarro have shelved his GC ambitions and has lost a lot of time. Now their goal is to win a stage and maybe the mountains jersey. Everybody knows how aggressive they are and this stage could be a goal for them. As a pure climber, they are not really suited to a punchy climb like the Mur but they are clearly in good condition. There is a big chance that they will be the strongest rider if they join the right break. Navarro is a bit punchier than Rolland who seems to have the better condition.

 

Adam Yates and Pieter Weening are the two second Orica-GreenEDGE cards. The final climb suits the former really well but after an injury-marred first half of the season, he is not at his best. Weening is less explosive but he has proved that he knows how to finish this kind of breakaways off in the Giro and he is a former stage winner of the Tour too.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be in his best condition either. On the other hand, his main goal has been to save energy for the mountains.

 

Zdenek Stybar has already won a stage in this race and if Tony Martin had still been in the race, he would be asked to save energy for the team time trial. Now it will be much harder for Etixx-QuickStep to win that stage and Stybar might get the freedom to attack. He is ninth on GC and like Gallopin he has a great chance to ride himself into yellow. In a battle between the favourites, the final climb is probably a bit too hard for him but in a breakaway he should be one of the strongest. Furthermore, he is very fast in an uphill sprint.

 

For a GC battle, the final climb is probably too hard for Edvald Boasson Hagen but he will have a chance in a breakaway. The Norwegian is riding very strongly at the moment and is generally not too bad on these shorter climbs. He benefits from the fact that it gets flatter in the finale and he has the sprint to finish it off. Furthermore, he has the power to get into the break and potentially attack before they get to the climb.

 

His teammates Louis Meintjes, Stephen Cummings and Serge Pauwels are all good candidates. Meintjes is a great climber and the final climb is too short for him. However, if he joins the right break, he will be one of the strongest on the climb. Pauwels and Cummings are both strong on shorter climbs and are riding well at the moment.

 

Thomas Voeckler deserves a mention. In the past, this stage would have been great for him but he is no longer as strong as he once was. However, he showed signs of growing condition in the French road race championships and there is no chance that he will try to join the break in this stage.

 

Ag2r will probably save energy for the team time trial but they might try to send Alexis Vuillermoz on the attack. The Ag2r rider finished an excellent third on the Mur de Huy and even though this climb doesn't suit him as well, he will be a contender in a GC battle. However, his best chance to win the stage will be to go on the attack but it remains to be seen whether his team will allow him to do so.

 

In case of a GC battle, no one can rule Chris Froome completely out. The Brit has proved that he is the strongest climber and he is more explosive than the rest of the Fabulous Four. It won’t be easy for him to win a sprint as it gets flatter in the finale but it won’t be completely impossible if the race gets very hard. Just recall how Contador nearly won the sprint four years ago.

 

For other fast riders, look to Joaquim Rodriguez, Rigoberto Uran and Bauke Mollema. They are all fast and in good condition. Rodriguez put his form on show in Huy but the final part of this climb is too easy for him to have a chance against a faster rider like Valverde. Hence, it will be hard for him to take a second stage win here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tony Gallopin (breakaway and a small chance in a sprint)

Other winner candidates: Simon Yates (breakaway and a small chance in a sprint), Cyril Gautier (breakaway)

Outsiders: Tim Wellens (breakaway), Julien Simon (breakaway and a small chance in a sprint), Peter Sagan (sprint), Alejandro Valverde (sprint), Greg Van Avermaet (sprint), Daniel Martin (sprint)

Jokers: Pierrick Fedrigo (breakaway), Julian Arredondo (breakaway and a small chance in a sprint), Pierre Rolland (breakaway), Daniel Navarro (breakaway), Adam Yates (breakaway), Pieter Weening (breakaway), Zdenek Stybar (breakaway), Edvald Boasson Hagen (breakaway), Louis Meintjes (breakaway), Stephen Cummings (breakaway), Serge Pauwels (breakaway), Thomas Voeckler (breakaway), Armindo Fonseca (breakaway), Florian Vachon (breakaway), Bartosz Huzarski (breakaway), Chris Froome (sprint), Alexis Vuillermoz (sprint or breakaway), Rigoberto Uran (sprint), Bauke Mollema (sprint)