The holy week of Belgian cycling reaches its climax on Sunday when the cycling-mad Flemish population invite the rest of the world to a fantastic festival of cobbles and climbs, wind and cold, beer and frites. The Tour of Flanders is the most iconic of the series of races which represent the very unique type of racing only found in the Flemish region and in which only the greatest specialists thrive.

 

There will be no holding back when the riders line up in Brugge Sunday morning. Up until now, every cobbled race has carried an element of preparation, but that will no longer be the case in De Ronde. The big objectives have finally arrived, and the greatest cobbles specialists will have to judge their spring season on their results the next two Sundays.

 

The Tour of Flanders join Milan-Sanremo, Paris-Roubaix, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the Tour of Lombardy in the list of cycling's 5 monuments - the sport's most iconic one-day races - and its roots in the cycling-mad Flemish region makes it one of the most coveted. The fans create a special atmosphere which is found nowhere else on the cycling calendar.

 

The first edition of the race was held in 1913 and was organized by Karel Van Wijnendaele, co-founder of the sports paper Sportwereld. Like most other big historic races, it was the desire of a newspaper to promote circulation that prompted the creation of one of cycling's most iconic events.

 

Before World War II, the race was usually on the same day as Milan–San Remo. Prominent Italian and French racers preferred the latter which explains why there was only a single non-Belgian winner before the war. With the decision to separate the two races on the calendar, both started to flourish, turning them both into some of cycling's biggest one-day races.

 

The Tour of Flanders is the highlight of the holy week of Belgian cycling and is the pinnacle of a race series that offer several races with an almost identical composition. Over a few weeks in late March and early April, the riders do several races on the same narrow, cobbled and steep roads in a tiny area in the Flemish Ardennes where they zigzag their way through the area to go up as many of the famous hellingen as possible.

 

Races like the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Dwars door Vlaanderen, E3 Harelbeke and the Tour of Flanders are all made up in this way and offer a very special kind of racing that characterizes this unique part of the cycling season. For some reason, it is all restricted to this very short span of time and the roads are only rarely used later in the season. During this period of time, however, they are the centre of the cycling world and all previous events have been a build-up to Sunday's great finale, one of the most important moments of the entire cycling season. The Tour of Flanders is the only monument to have a series of races that all seem to be preparation for the big event.

 

While the other cobbled monument, Paris-Roubaix, is an almost completely flat affair where the difference is made purely by the rough surface and where the strongest contenders rely on their strength and endurance, the Tour of Flanders is a different affair. The main characteristic of the course is its numerous hellingen - short, steep, often cobbled climbs - and thus success in Flanders does require a certain punch to tackle the slopes of the Flemish Ardennes.

 

In fact, the Tour of Flanders organizers never had a plan to deliberately use bad roads. In the early days, they were simply the only ones available. In the 50s Belgium began asphalting its roads but at that time, the race already had its own unique characteristics. When the first classic hills were surfaced, alarm bells started to ring and the organizers had to speak to the local men at bars to find all the hidden roads that could be used for the event. Those have since become an integral part of the race and are iconic places in the cycling world.

 

In fact, the climbs are now so famous that the exact layout of the course makes for a heavy debate. While the Tour of Flanders follows a well-known formula, the exact course differs from year to year. The distance and the number of climbs vary and the start and finishing cities have not always been the same. Having originally started in Gent, the race has taken off from Brugge in recent years.

 

For many years, however, the finale was the same. From 1973 to 2011, the race finished in Meerbeke and had its well-known finish with the famed Muur van Geraardsbergen and the Bosberg coming towards the end.

 

That has all been changed. Instead, the 2012 and 2013 editions finished with a few laps on a circuit that included two of the hardest climbs in the region, the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg. The removal of the Muur sparked a heavy debate, with many cycling fans seeing the decision as a lack of respect for cycling history. The general perception was that the new course would be harder but things turned out differently than expected. The circuit used in 2012 and 2013 may have contained two brutal climbs but also had a lot of big, long roads that has made it impossible to attack from afar. Instead, the race favourites were mostly forced to wait to the final passages of the Kwaremont-Paterberg duo, making the race more controlled than it had been in the past.

 

In an attempt to avoid this scenario, the organizers again changed the course for the 2014 edition. While the Kwaremont and Paterberg still featured as the final two climbs, the circuit format had been shelved and instead the famed Koppenberg had been included much closer to the end. The changes were welcomed by the classics contenders while the faster finishers were less pleased with the new, tougher course. Apparently, the change had the desired effect as the 2014 race turned out to be more selection.

 

Even though both cobbled monuments have been dominated by Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen in the last couple of years, it is no surprise that the list of contenders differ somewhat for the two races. While Thor Hushovd was never able to challenge for victory in Flanders, he was one of the most consistent performers in the North of France. With its combination of climbs and cobbles, the Tour of Flanders may be seen as an amalgamation of Paris-Roubaix and the Ardennes classics and so it is no wonder that certain riders have managed to excel in both Flanders and the Wallonian classics. Philippe Gilbert and Peter Sagan have mostly avoid Paris-Roubaix to target success in the Ardennes but have been perennial contenders in De Ronde  even though the former will again be absent as he fully focuses on the hilly classics while the latter has decided to give Roubaix a shot for the second year in a row.

 

Nonetheless, the list of winners include many of the same names and in fact two of the current stars are shared record holders in both events. With his third victory in 2012, Boonen equaled the race record set by Achiel Buysse, Fiorenzo Magni, Eric Leman and Johan Museeuw, and last year Fabian Cancellara also took a third win in De Ronde. Due to injuries, however, none of the two riders who have dominated the cobbled monuments for a decade, will be present in 2015, opening the door for a new rider to take the title. In fact, Stijn Devolder will be the only previous winner to start this year’s race.

 

Last year Fabian Cancellara made it two in a row after a momerable race. Greg Van Avermaet and Stijn Vandenbergh anticipated the attacks from pre-race favourites Cancellara, Peter Sagan and Sep Vanmarcke who found themselves in a difficult situation as they were isolated very early in a big chase group. The final time up the Oude Kwaremont, Cancellara and Vanmarcke distanced the rest and after having picked Vandenbergh up, they caught Van Avermaet on the descent from the Paterberg. Those four riders ended up deciding the race in the sprint and it was the Swiss who turned out to be fastest, beating Van Avermaet and Vanmarcke into the minor podium spots. Due to his crash in E3 Harelbeke, Cancellara won’t be back to defend his title but Van Avermaet, Vanmarcke and Vandenbergh will all be on the start line, trying to conquer their first monument win.

 

The course

As said, the organizers have listened to the many riders who criticized the revamped course used for the 2012 and 2013 editions for producing too conservative racing. Honouring the contract with finishing city Oudenaarde, there will be no return to the previous finale with the Muur and the Bosberg but the organizers have taken several steps to make the race tougher. The circuit format that had pleased the spectators but done little to encourage aggressive racing is gone and even though the organizers have been keen to make sure that the riders pass the final climbs several times, they have now put together a final part of the race that is more diverse, includes more climbs and allows less room for recovery. That produced some very aggressive racing in 2014 and the organizers have put together a very similar course for the 2015 edition.

 

The final combination of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg is a brutal one as both climbs are among the hardest in the region. In fact, the pair is a much tougher combination that the Muur-Bosberg one used in the past. What had made the 2012 and 2013 editions less aggressive were the many kilometres of flat roads on big roads on the finishing circuit that made it difficult to attack from afar. By abandoning the circuit format, the organizers have managed to reduce the distance between the climbs.

 

The riders will still go up the Kwaremont thrice and the Paterberg twice but the penultimate passages come much farther from the finish. From there, the riders take on a circuit that opens the door the most interesting novelty of the new course. The famed Koppenberg has always been a key point in the race but has been located way too early to make a real difference. For the second year in a row, it comes much closer to the finish and will kick start a finale with no chance for recovery.

 

Despite the changes, the race still follows the same format that characterizes most of the Flemish classics. The races all kick off with a long section of flat roads before heading into the Flemish Ardennes. Here they zigzag their way through the very tiny area of all the famous climbs. They cover several hellingen and pave sections before they head along flat roads to the finishing city. The narrow roads, steep climbs, and uncomfortable surface typically turn it into a race for the hardmen as the gradual selection means that only a handful are riders are usually left in contention by the time they return to the finish area. The difference between the races are their start and finishing cities, the number of climbs and their distance, with the Tour of Flanders of course being the longest.

 

Since 1998 the race has started in Brugge and this point of departure will be unchanged for the 2015 edition. That city is located close to the coast far from the Flemish Ardennes and so the 264.2km journey - the longest since 2008 - starts with a long flat southerly run to the city of Kortijk that will be reached after 43km of racing. From here the riders approach ach the heartland of the Flemish Ardennes along roads that are deadly flat.

 

After 99km, the riders reach the city of Oudenaarde where the race will finish some 165km later and now the race will change its nature. Unlike last year, however, the riders will already have had a chance to warm up the legs as the Tiegemberg (750m, 5.6%, max. 9%) comes after 87.2km of racing but now the racing gets significantly tougher. The long opening, flat stretch will have only served to accumulate fatigue in the riders' legs and allow the early break to take off. In many Flemish classics, a presence in the early may be a chance to feature deep into the finale of the race but due to the distance, this never happens in the Tour of Flanders. Hence, there is less incentive to be part of the action and the break may go clear a bit earlier than it has done in Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Harelbeke where the pace was very fierce right from the beginning.

 

After the passage of Oudenaarde, the riders head to the south to go into the heartland of the Flemish Ardennes. The second obstacle comes at the 112.2km mark and it will be one the landmark climbs of the race that kicks off the spectacle. First up is the Oude Kwaremont (2200m, 4%, max. 11.6%, 1500m of cobbles) and from here there will be little chance for recovery. The maximum distance between two successive climbs on the list of a total of 17 hellingen is 16km but in most cases it is less than 10km.

 

On the run-in to the Kwaremont, the battle for position will be fierce. It is still way too early for the favourites to show their hands but from now on it will be important to stay near the front almost all the time. Positioning means just as much as power and climbing skills in the Tour of Flanders as there is little room for passing riders on these narrow roads. Starting a climb too far back could easily mean that the race is over, especially if you are caught up behind one of the many crashes that are guaranteed to happen.

 

The riders have now started their first big loop that brings them over another 10 climbs. Continuing in a northeasterly direction, they go up the Kortekeer at the 122.5km mark while it is time for another one of the harder climbs, the Eikenberg (1200m, 5.2%, max. 10%, 1200m of cobbles) after 130.0km of racing. It leads into one of the steep, asphalted climbs, the Wolvenberg (645m, 7.9%,  max. 17.3%) which is located just 3.1km further up the road, and right at the top, the riders tackle the 800m Ruitenstraat pave sector. It opens a difficult section with three successive paves. Three kilometres later, the peloton tackles the 2650m Kerkgate which leads almost directly to the shorter 350m Holleweg.

 

This phase of the race is very hectic as another one of the harder climbs, the steep Molenberg (463m, 7%, max. 14.2%, 300m of cobbles) - always a key climb in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad - comes just 6.7km later. 5.0km further up the road, it is time for more cobbles when the riders pass another key section of the Omloop course as they go over the 2300m long Paddestraat pavé. After that obstacle, it is finally time for some respite as there won't be any major challenges for the next 12.5km and it may give the riders one of their final chances to take on some food and go back to the team car.

 

These first climbs serve a number of purposes. First of all, they will all add up to make the race hard and turn the race into one of attrition. From the very start of the hilly zone, it is a gradual elimination with riders being constantly shed out the back. In addition to the constant battle for position that automatically ups the pace, we may us see a few teams try to make things harder by riding hard on the climbs.

 

More importantly, however, this phase is usually dominated by several attacks. It is still too early for the podium contenders to show their cards but it may be time to send their teammates up the road. The captains from some of the smaller teams may also be eager to get into the mix at this point as they are keen to make themselves visible and get a ticket to the finale of the race. The attacks may be launched on the climbs but very often, riders take off when the riders get back to bigger, flat roads and momentarily slow down.

 

The riders now turn around to head back in a southwesterly direction and this second half of the opening circuit is easier than the first one. First up is the 2000m Haaghoek pave sector which leads directly into the asphalted Leberg (950m, 4.2%, max. 13.8%). Unlike last year, the riders will now tackle the Berendries (940, 7%, max. 12.3%) and then it's time for the Valkenberg (540m, 8.1%, max. 12.8%) which is followed by a longer section of flat roads. From here, the race is identical to last year’s. 77.9km from the finish they go up the Kaperij (1000m, 5.5%, max. 9%) which precedes the second feed zone and the final chance to refuel for the final part.

 

The finale won't kick off just yet as the riders first have to go up the Kanarieberg (1000m, 7.7%, max. 14%) 70.5km from the finish but it is followed by the longest obstacle-free section of the hilly part of the race. This section from 100-70km to go is rather easy and could again give some of the podium contenders the chance to use a small lull in the pace to send riders up the road.

 

Things kick off in earnest 54.6km from the finish when the riders are back at the Oude Kwaremont (2200m, 4%, max. 11.6%, 1500m of cobbles) to tackle the famed climb for the second time. It leads almost directly into another one of the most brutal Flemish hellingen, the Paterberg (360m, 12.9%, max. 20.3%, 360m of cobbles) as the riders tackle the pair of climbs for the first time. When they return 40km later, those two climbs will be the final obstacles of the race.

 

The riders now start the final, new circuit in the Flemish Ardennes and this is one is much harder than the one used for the 2012 and 2013 editions. The most notable feature is the fact that it contains the famous Koppenberg (600m, 11.6%, max. 22%, 600m of cobbles) which comes just 44.6km from the line. This is far closer to the finish than in the past for this brutal ascent which is never used for any of the other Flemish classics and was taken out of the course for several years after a bad accident in the 90s. Since then, the road surface has been improved but it remains one of the hardest climbs in Flanders.

 

To go up the Kwaremont, the Paterberg and the Koppenberg within just 10km is simply brutal and now it is time for the favourites to kick into action.  After the Koppenberg, the riders tackle the 2000m pavé sector Mariaborrestraat and 5.4km after the famed ascent, the riders go up the Steenbeekdries (700m, 5.3%, max.6.7%). Then it is time for another one of the hardest climbs in Flanders.  Like last year the Taaienberg (530m, 6.6%, max. 15.8%, 500m of cobbles) - Tom Boonen's favourite climb - comes deep into the finale just 36.8km from the finish and so will play a more important role than it has done in the past. Last year the big names played with their muscles on each of these very difficult climbs and even though none of the attacks were decisive, it created a very small lead group very far from the finish.

 

After the Taaienberg, thing get a bit easier and this could be what prevents too early attacks from the favourites. For the next 20.1km, the only obstacle is the long gradual ascent of the Kruisberg (2500m, 5%, max. 9%, 450m of cobbles) and this section may play an important role. This was where Jurgen Roelandts went up the road in 2013 and last year Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh used that section to get a free ticket to the finale. At the same time, Cancellara and Sagan found themselves isolated and had to do a lot of work to stay in contention in what is a very diffuclt section to handle. All the podium contenders who are just below the biggest favourites, will want to use this section to anticipate the attacks from the race favourites. If the selection has been big in the tough section a few kilometres earlier, domestique resources will be limited and it will be hard to control what could be a very aggressive part of the race.

 

As it has been the case in the previous years, all is set to be decided on the Kwaremont-Paterberg duo. The first one comes 16.7km from the finish while the latter ends the hostilities 13.3km from the line. Those two climbs are some of the hardest in the race but are very different. Kwaremont is a long, gradual ascent which is more about power and endurance than acceleration skills while the Paterberg is a short, brutally steep ramp where it is possible to accelerate almost from the bottom to the top. Last year, Cancellara attacked on the former and only Vanmarcke could stay with him. They both tried to attack each other on the Paterberg but failed to get clear. This will be the scene of the final attacks from the favourites and where the strongest riders have to make their moves.

 

The final 13.3km consist of a long northeasterly run back to Oudenaarde along flat, rather big roads. At this point it will be a pursuit all the way back to the line and it will be the scene of a real tactical battle if a few riders are still together at this point. In 2012 and 2013, a chase group behind the leading three riders has been rather big but last year the race was much more selective. The final turn comes 8km from the finish and then it is straight all the way to the finish on the Minderbroederstraat where a deserved winner of the Tour of Flanders will be crowned.

 

Compared to last year, the distance has been slightly increased from 259km to 264km and two climbs – the Tiegemberg and the Berendries – have been added. From the Valkenberg, however, the course is completely unchanged.

 

 

 

The weather

The outcome of only very few races depend as much on the weather as the Tour of Flanders. Even though the course is hard and selective, the difficulty increases dramatically if the conditions are windy, cold, and rainy. If the conditions are brutal, it becomes a real race of attrition while the race opens up for a lot more riders if the weather is nice. Last week’s Gent-Wevelgem proved how bad weather can completely change the race and while the fast guys hope for pleasant weather, the strongmen hope for a brutal race. Many cycling fans don't regard it as a real edition of De Ronde if the riders haven't had to battle the Belgian rain and cold.

 

Belgium has had some stormy weather the last few days but things will change in time for Sunday’s race. The wind will already abate on Thursday and the final rain is forecasted to fall on Friday and Saturday. At the moment, it seems that Sunday will be a rather nice day for a bike race.

 

The riders will be greeted by a mix of sunshine and clouds and it will probably stay dry for the entire race. However, it won’t be very hot as the maximum temperature in Oudenaarde is only forecasted to be 9 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind in the long, flat first part of the race. Heading into the hills, the wind will be coming from all different directions. There will be a headwind on the Koppenberg, a crosswind on the Taaienberg and crosswinds on the Kwaremont and Paterberg. Importantly, there will be a direct headwind in the final flat run back to Oudenaarde.

 

The favourites

When the race finished in Meerbeke with the late passages of the Muur and the Bosberg, everybody knew what to expect from De Ronde but with the new, harder course, all riders will be a bit more wary. Last year they got their first chance to test the new finale and the race was clearly a lot harder than the course used for the 2012 and 2013 edition. A much smaller group was left after the Taaienberg and the number of potential winners on this route is definitely a lot more restricted. This year the riders will be a bit more familiar with the course but we can expect a very similar race. With the harder course, there was a fear that the riders would be too afraid to attack from afar but even the big names played with their muscles pretty early. There is no reason to expect that it will be any different in 2015.

 

The 2013 race was an interesting one as it proved how much can be won for the outsiders by anticipating the favourites. Jurgen Roelandts proved how you can earn yourself a podium spot by doing so and being ahead at the time when the biggest names make the decisive attacks. Last year Greg Van Avermaet and Stijn Vandenbergh did a similar move and it has also worked out in Paris-Roubaix where several riders earned themselves a ticket to the finale of the race by before Cancellara to force him on the back foot.

 

Many riders have indicated that they want to try a similar move in 2015. Luca Paolini has done nothing to hide his intentions and Roelandts will be keen to repeat the success. Etixx-QuickStep have so many cards to play that they can allow themselves to play some of them from the distance.

 

Already from the very beginning, we can expect the early foundations for such moves to be laid. In 2013, Lotto Belisol kept sending riders up the road to have assistance for Roelandts later in the race. Many teams will be keen to a rider in the early break and so the very start of the stage could be a very fast and tactical affair. When the peloton reaches the hilly zone, we can expect more attacks, with teams trying to prepare the moves from their main riders.

 

The podium contenders probably won't try their hand until the final, very difficult circuit. The moment for the riders to go on the attack may not necessarily be on the climbs but could easily be on the flat stretches where the pace briefly goes down. Some riders will definitely attack a bit earlier but the Kwaremont-Paterberg-Koppenberg-Taaienberg quartet will make a natural selection that only leaves very few riders in the group of favourites. The following mostly flat 20km are perfect for attacks as the biggest names will have very few domestiques left and the race will be difficult to control. This could be a very important part of the race. We expect this part to be rather animated, with LottoNL-Jumbo, Tinkoff-Saxo and Sky trying ti keep things together for the final time up the Kwaremont and the Paterberg while teams like Etixx-QuickStep and BMC will be keen to use their strength in numbers.

 

This year will be the first for more than a decade when neither Fabian Cancellara nor Tom Boonen will be at the start line. This will make for some different tactic as there will be no obvious favourite. This makes it less evident which team has to control the early part of the race but we expect LottoNL-Jumbo, Sky and Etixx-QuickStep to take their responsibility. In the key zone, however, there is no reason to do any real chase work as the fight for position means that everybody wants to be near the front.

 

The lack of the two big names means that a lot more riders are confident that they can come away with the big win but it doesn’t mean that the race doesn’t have clear favourites. The riders have already had the chance to test themselves in E3 Harelbeke and an unusually hard edition of Gent-Wevelgem and three riders have marked themselves out as the strongest riders.

 

Geraint Thomas has had a very gradual improvement in the classics but he has never been a real contender in Flanders. In 2012, he missed the classics as he was focused on the track and the Olympics and in 2013 he was set back by crashes. Last year he took another step forward by finishing on the podium in E3 but in the biggest race he came up slightly short as he could only manage 8th.

 

However, Thomas has continued his progression and this year he has clearly taken the final step into the elite. Already in February he was riding at a really high level when he won the Volta ao Algarve overall and he climbed better than ever before when he finished second in the Paris-Nice stage win. Those results marked him out as a man to watch but some people suggested that the fact that he has lost a bit of weight could be a disadvantage in the classics.

 

Thomas has clearly proved those pundits wrong. He was one of the strongest riders in Milan-Sanremo where his long-distance attack nearly paid off and in E3 Harelbeke, he and Zdenek Stybar were clearly the strongest riders. The Welshman was the one to make the decisive acceleration on the Kwaremont and in the finale he rode away with the win.

 

However, it was Gent-Wevelgem that really proved that Thomas is currently the strongest riders. Having made it into the group that decided the race, he did an impressive work to chase back from a crash. Despite that effort, he was amazingly strong in the finale when he rode away from everyone else to catch Niki Terpstra and Luca Paolini. He did by far the most work in the lead group and still had enough left to come away with third.

 

If one rider is strong enough to distance everybody else on the Kwaremont and the Paterberg, it is likely to be Thomas. Last year he proved that he can handle the distance and he is very good at saving energy in the first part of the race. However, the Welshman also has a few weaknesses that could turn out to be costly.

 

First of all, Sky don’t look too strong. While he could find himself up against three Etixx-QuickStep riders (Stybar, Terpstra and Vandenbergh) and two BMC riders (Oss and Van Avermaet) when the key selection has been made, he could easily be isolated. Ian Stannard is more suited to Paris-Roubaix and is not at his best and even though he has improved a lot, Luke Rowe is still missing that final bit. Bradley Wiggins is more focused on Paris-Roubaix and didn’t really shine on the climbs in the Three Days of De Panne. Due to his recent results, many will be looking at Thomas after the Taaienberg and he could be forced to use too much work.

 

Furthermore, Thomas is not as fast as many as the pre-race favourites. Riders like Stybar, Vanmarcke, Sagan, Kristoff, Degenkolb and Van Avermaet are all superior in a sprint and so the Sky rider probably needs to make a solo move. That won’t be easy as there will be a headwind in the finale and so he has to hope for a hard race that makes it impossible to organize a chase in a bigger group. Despite these weaknesses, however, Thomas is so amazingly strong at the moment that he is our favourite to win the race.

 

His biggest rival could very well be Sep Vanmarcke. In the last two years, the Belgian has proved that he is probably the most talented rider of his generation for these races and he has the skills to turn into a dominant factor in the same way as Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara have been in the past.

 

Sep Vanmarcke has been extremely consistent in the cobbled classics. In fact, he has finished in the top 6 of all the cobbled races he has done in 2014 and 2015, with the 2015 Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne being the only exception (it was decided in a bunch sprint). This speaks volumes about his talent and he has even achieved many of those results in races where he has been set back by an incredible amount of bad luck.

 

Last year Vanmarcke was the only rider who could follow Cancellara on the Kwaremont and he even had enough left to try to attack the Trek leader on the Paterberg. This year he was clearly the strongest in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and only bad luck prevented him from finishing on the podium in that race.

 

Many were disappointed by his performance in E3 Harelbeke where he was unable to follow Stybar and Thomas on the Kwaremont. However, there is no reason to be so. In fact, his performance was amazing as he destroyed his shoe when he unclipped during his attack on the Paterberg. As a consequence, he was unable to pull and could only push when he went up the Kwaremont. Nonetheless, only Thomas, Stybar and Sagan were able to distance him and he was the fourth pre-race favourite to reach the summit.

 

Vanmarcke is a lot more explosive than Thomas and when he accelerates on the steep Paterberg, it will be very hard for anyone to keep up. However, he still has two challenges to overcome if he wants to win the race. First of all he usually spends way too much energy too early in the race and this often leaves him fatigued in the finale. That was evident in Gent-Wevelgem where he simply ran out of power in the end. To win these very long races, he has to ride a lot more conservative and gauge his efforts better. Secondly, LottoNL-Jumbo is not very strong. Bram Tankink and Maarten Wynants are his key domestiques but the latter is not in his best condition. After the Taaienberg, he is likely to be isolated and this could force him to again use too much energy.

 

On the other hand, Vanmarcke is very fast in a sprint and has the speed to beat most of the race favourites at the end. That’s a big advantage in a race that will be marked by a headwind in the finale. If he can gauge his efforts better, Vanmarcke may finally take that elusive monument victory.

 

The third rider who has marked himself out as one of the strongest riders at the moment, is Zdenek Stybar. Straight after making the transition to the road, the Czech proved his huge potential for the classics and after his amazing debut in Paris-Roubaix two years ago, he has continued his rapid development. This year an injury took him out of the cyclo-cross season and it seems that a calmer winter has had a good effect on his condition for the classics.

 

Stybar already proved his strength in the Volta ao Algarve and went on to ride strongly in the opening weekend where only poor positioning at the key moment took him out of contention in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. He went on to take a dominant victory in Strade Bianche and was close to a stage win in Tirreno-Adriatico.

 

However, it was his performance in last week’s E3 Harelbeke that really marked out as a top favourite. Together with Thomas, he made the decisive move on the Kwaremont and he looked very strong in the final part of the race. He overestimated Peter Sagan in the finale and this cost him the chance to battle with Thomas for the win. An untimely puncture took him out of contention in Gent-Wevelgem and it is hard to imagine that he would not have been part of the lead group if he hadn’t been at the back when the group split.

 

Unlike Vanmarcke and Thomas, Stybar has the advantage of being part of a team that has several potential winners. Without Boonen, he is likely to be the leader but the team can also count on Stijn Vandenbergh and Niki Terpstra who are expected to be among the principal contenders. Etixx-QuickStep are likely to ride aggressively in the finale and if one of his teammates get up the road, Stybar can allow himself to follow wheels. That is a massive advantage which may allow him to save crucial energy for the finale while the likes of Vanmarcke and Thomas have to do some work.

 

Stybar is very strong on the hellingen and he could launch the decisive moves on the Kwaremont and Paterberg. Furthermore, he is very fast in the sprint and doesn’t have to fear too many riders in a final dash to the line. Despite Boonen’s absence, Etixx-QuickStep still have an obvious candidate for the win.

 

On paper, it looks like the Tour of Flanders could be too hard for Alexander Kristoff but it would be a big mistake to underestimate the big Norwegian. He may not be strong enough to go with the attacks on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg but he won’t be far off the mark. Furthermore, he has the advantage of being the strongest rider at the end of long races. That was evident in Milan-Sanremo where he suffered on the Cipressa but looked comfortable on the Poggio. Last year he was initially distanced in Flanders and seemed to be out of the battle. When his rivals started to fade, however, he was back in the game and came within seconds of joining the front group after the Paterberg.

 

Kristoff proved how strong he is when he single-handedly bridged the gap to the key breakaway in the first stage of the Three Days of De Panne and one day later he took a very powerful sprint win. In the past, he has won the bunch sprints for the minor positions in the three first monuments and in last year’s World Championships and no one can deny that he is the fastest at the end of a long race. He may have been beaten by John Degenkolb in Sanremo but if he had started his sprint just metres later, he would definitely have taken the win.

 

The problem for Kristoff is that no one wants to go to the finish with him but he will be helped by a headwind which will make it hard for anyone to make a solo move in the finale. Furthermore, he can rely on an in-form Luca Paolini who may help to keep things together. Kristoff seems to be stronger than ever and this means that he could add another monument to his palmares.

 

John Degenkolb took the biggest win of his career in Milan-Sanremo and now he has set his sights on the cobbles. After his second place in 2014, people may expect him to be stronger for Paris-Roubaix but don’t count him out of the cobbled classics. He may not have taken any major results in the first two cobbled classics but that was due to bad luck. He crashed twice in E3 and punctured at the bottom of the Kemmelberg in Gent-Wevelgem.

 

This means that Degenkolb has flown under the radar but he can’t be ruled out in Flanders. He may be known as a sprinter but he is an excellent climber too. Last year he managed to stay with Niki Terpstra and Geraint Thomas when they went away on the Kwaremont in E3 and this proves that he is among the very best on the hellingen. Unlike Kristoff, he may be strong enough to go on the attacks and he is obviously extremely fast at the end of a hard race.

 

Unfortunately, he can’t expect to have any kind of team support in the finale. Until now, he has relied a lot on Zico Waeytens but it will be too much to expect him to feature in the finale of the Tour of Flanders. On the other hand, he will be assisted by the headwind and if he is there at the finish for a sprint, Kristoff is probably the only rider who can beat him.

 

In the first two cobbled races, we were hugely disappointed by Niki Terpstra who was far off the mark and seemed to have mistimed his condition completely. However, he bounced back with an excellent performance in Gent-Wevelgem where he was probably the second best behind the impressive Thomas. Despite a few punctures, he still managed to bridge the gap to the main group on his own and had enough left in the tank to finish second. Furthermore, he and Thomas looked like the strongest on the Kemmelberg.

 

Terpstra’s main problem is that he is not very fast in a sprint and he will probably have to arrive alone at the finish. On the other hand, he is part of the strongest team and in last year’s Paris-Roubaix he showed that he knows how to capitalize on this to take a solo win. Terpstra is excellent at the end of a long race and due to his TT skills, he is very hard to catch if he makes a move in the finale.

 

Greg Van Avermaet may be BMC’s captain but we actually think that Daniel Oss will do better than the Belgian. Van Avermaet didn’t look very strong in E3 and things haven’t been made any easier by his crash in that race. As opposed to this, Oss has been amazingly strong. He did an impressive ride in Strade Bianche to prove his condition and like Thomas he came close with his attack in Milan-Sanremo.

 

In E3, he was not far behind Thomas and Stybar when they attacked on the Kwaremont and he rode a very solid Gent-Wevelgem too. He has flown under the radar due to the fact that he missed last year’s classics due to an injury but in 2013 he proved that he is one of the strongest in these races.

 

Oss’ main advantage is the fact that he is an underdog and won’t be heavily watched by the favourites. He will probably not be able to go with the best on the Kwaremont and Paterberg but he could very well anticipate the big moves. This could give him a ticket to the finale where he will be a danger man. He knows how to ride alone and has a very fast sprint.

 

Greg Van Avermaet was probably be the strongest rider in last year’s race but this year it doesn’t seem like he has timed his condition perfectly. He was very strong in the beginning of March and rode solidly at Milan-Sanremo but he was not at his best in E3. He was far back when the attacks were launched on the key climbs and he crashed later in the race. That had an impact in Gent-Wevelgem where he was far from his usual level.

 

The longer distance should suit Van Avermaet who has proved that he is one of the best in the very long races and he is usually very strong on the hellingen. He has a fast sprint and has the right aggressive mindset to anticipate the favourites. He remains a contender but at the moment we don’t think he has the condition to win the race.

 

In the last two years, Peter Sagan has been one of the two big favourites but this year things are different for the talented Slovakian. Already last year it was evident that he was not at his previous level and he ended the season on a very bad note. This year he has continued his downward trend. He blew up in Strade Bianche and was not climbing at his usual level in Strade Bianche. He looked better in Milan-Sanremo but when it was time to hit the cobbles, he again blew up when he had made the front group in E3 Harelbeke. In Gent-Wevelgem he was suffering a lot on the climbs and was not even close to joining the key move.

 

Sagan has always had a hard time dealing with the very long races but this year he has also cracked in the 200km events. Things are unlikely to get any better in the monuments and he has to be very strong to win the race. Due to his fast sprint, he always has to respond to a lot of attacks in the finale and his reinforced Tinkoff-Saxo team has not impressed. They will probably try to have Matti Breschel anticipate the favourites which would allow Sagan to save more energy. At the moment, however, we don’t think he has the strength to go with the best on the final climbs. However, Sagan is such a classy bike rider that he can never be ruled out.

 

Jurgen Roelandts was once destined to become one of the greats in these races but his progress has slightly stalled. In 2013, he finished on the podium but that was due to a smart move more than it was based on his ability to be there with the best. Last year he again confirmed that he is not at the level of the big favourites.

 

In 2015, however, he may be ready to take the next step. The Belgian didn’t really impress in E3 Harelbeke where he was far off the pace on the climbs but he did an impressive performance in Gent-Wevelgem where he would have deserved to win. That indicates that he has taken another step up and he has the skills to win these races. He is strong on the climbs, has the right aggressive  mindset and is fast in a sprint.

 

Stijn Vandenbergh is among the best riders for these races and the Belgian is always there in the finale. Among the favourites, however, he is probably the weakest sprinter and this always has a big influence on his possibilities. However, he is part of a very strong Etixx-QuickStep team and this is what makes him a possible winner of the race.

 

Vandenbergh is good enough to stay close to the best on the hellingen and he is likely to be there in the finale. If Etixx-QuickStep have strength in numbers, they will start to attack and here Vandenbergh will be one of the first cards to be played. Until now his efforts haven’t paid off but the big Belgian is certainly strong enough to win a monument.

 

One rider who has never shined in the monuments before, is Jack Bauer. In fact, nobody expected anything from his in this classics season but after Sebastian Langeveld crashed out of E3 Harelbeke, he grabbed his opportunity to lead Cannondale-Garmin with both hands. The Kiwi was clearly one of the strongest riders in the final part of that race and he was fully at the level of the pre-race favourites on the Kwaremont.

 

It remains to be seen how will handle the longer distance but he has the big advantage of being a complete underdog. If he makes it into the finale by anticipating the favourites, no one will be looking at him as a favourite. This could give him room to make a surprise move and he is our joker to take an upset win in Flanders.

 

The second rider who could create a big surprise in this race, is Edward Theuns. The Belgian was clearly the strongest on the hellingen in Dwats door Vlaanderen and he seemed to be at ease on the Kemmelberg in Gent-Wevelgem. In fact, it was only a matter of inexperience that prevented him from joining the right move and he is clearly a ride to watch in the future.

 

Like Bauer, it remains to be seen how he handles the longer distances but if he can handle the longer effort, he has the strength to play a role in the finale. He is fast in a sprint and will be a complete underdog who may have some room to attack in the finale.

 

***** Geraint Thomas

**** Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar

*** Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Niki Terpstra, Daniel Oss

** Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan, Stijn Vandenbergh, Jurgen Roelandts, Jack Bauer, Edward Theuns

* Sylvain Chavanel, Luca Paolini, Lars Boom, Stijn Devolder, Filippo Pozzato, Bradley Wiggins, Sebastian Langeveld, Ian Stannard, Vincent Jerome, Bjorn Leukemans, Marco Marcato, Matti Breschel, Jempy Drucker, Arnaud Demare, Marcus Burghardt, Jens Keukeleire, Jasper Stuyven, Borut Bozic, Silvan Dillier, Matteo Trentin, Dires Devenyns, Tiesj Benoot, Dylan van Baarle, Luke Rowe, Oscar Gatto, Cyril Lemoine, Gerald Ciolek