After yesterday's clash between the major favourites for the Tour of Flanders, the biggest classics specialists step into the background in tomorrow's third leg of the holy period of Flemish racing, Gent-Wevelgem. While the race may be one of the most prestigious on the calendar, the likes of Fabian Cancellara, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet and Sylvain Chavanel will mainly use the cobbled climbs to get a last gauge of their form and instead the biggest sprinters fancy their chances to have a rare shot at classics glory.

 

The holy period of Belgian cycling continues with the race that is often seen as number 3 in the hierarchy of cobbled races. Due to its long history, Gent-Wevelgem is regarded as being just below the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix when it comes to prestige and there is a lot at stake when they riders roll out from Deinze just west of Gent to follow the traditional route to the finish in Wevelgem.

 

While the race belongs to the list of the biggest cobbled races, however, the nature of the racing is likely to change compared to what we have seen in the Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 and what we will see next Sunday in the Tour of Flanders. Taking place in a different part of the country than those races and featuring a longer flat stretch in the end, the race may be one of the cobbled classics but it is one that the sprinters can realistically dream about.

 

What makes the race so important is its long history. First held in 1934, it started as a junior race and was later open for independent amateur riders before it turned into an event for professionals after World War II. As most other Belgian races, the early years were dominated by the home riders but it quickly became a part of cycling's most coveted races. Big Belgian riders like Rik van Looy, Eddy Merckx,  Freddy Maertens, and Walter Godefroot were among the early winners but from Bernard Hinault's 1977 victory, the race became a truly international event with a very diverse list of winners that include several different nationalities and a mixture of fast finishers and classics riders like John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, Tom Boonen, Oscar Freire, Mario Cipollini, Thor Hushovd, and Djamolidine Abdoujaparov who have all stood atop the podium in the race's modern history.

 

The race has been held at different times in the spring and its course has seen several variations but it has always been an important part of the Belgian spring schedule. In its early years, it joined forces with the Omloop Het Volk (now Omloop Het Nieuwsblad) to form a series called Trofee van Vlaanderen and it is an integral part of the unique race series that makes up the Flemish classics.

 

Even though it is part of the Belgian spring season, however, it is a very different race from the Tour of Flanders and Friday's E3. The Flemish races may be divided into two categories.  In the first category, the Tour of Flanders, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and E3 are races for the hard men and classics specialists. These are the true Flemish classics as they are designed in the same way. The course map is a complicated affair as the riders zigzag their way through a rather small area in the Flemish Ardennes, heading back and forth and often using the same roads numerous times. All the famous hellingen known from the Tour of Flanders are located in this small area and it is easy for the organizers to make changes from year to year, varying the climbs used for the different editions of the race, as tradition doesn't put too many restraints on their opportunities

 

The second category of races contains Gent-Wevelegem, Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, and Scheldeprijs. The names of the first two races dictate much of their courses and instead of zigzagging their way through the Flemish Ardennes, the races have much more of a point-to-point format. This makes it harder for them to utilize the tiny area in the Flemish Ardennes where all the major difficulties are located and this makes the races substantially easier. Scheldeprijs is not a point-to-point race but doesn't contain a single climb. These races are much more suited to the sprinters than the "real" Flemish classics.

 

In fact, Gent-Wevelgem takes place in a different part of Belgium than the races from the first category. In the past, the race has travelled through the Flemish Ardennes and covered many of the Tour of Flanders hellingen but the race has mostly completely avoided this part of Belgium. Instead, it brings the riders from the start to the coast along the North Sea and a southern journey down to the Belgian-French border. Here, the race tackles its landmark climbs, with the Kemmelberg being by far the most iconic. The race ends with a long flat run to Wevelgem, meaning that the sprinters face a much easier race than they do in most of the other Flemish classics.

 

Nonetheless, Gent-Wevelgem has been regarded as the third big cobbled classic and even though it wasn't part of the now defunct World Cup, it was included in the ProTour and its successor, the WorldTour, right from their beginning.

 

For many years, however, the race played an unfortunate role as a midweek race in between the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. While most of the biggest stars were at the start line, they preferred to stay safe and often abandoned at the midpoint at it was all about recovery for Sunday's big battle in Roubaix.

 

Things changed for the 2010 edition when UCI made a major reshuffle of the classics schedule that partly served the purpose of reestablishing some of Gent-Wevelgem's prestige and make more synergy between the races. The race was moved to the Sunday before Tour of Flanders and now forms a perfect warm-up weekend for De Ronde with the E3 which takes place two days earlier.

 

The change has certainly been beneficial for the race but the race is still not a real target for the big classics riders. With the E3 resembling the Tour of Flanders much more, the Flanders favourites prefer to use Friday's race as the big test while they often use Gent-Wevelgem as more of a training race where they test their condition on the race's climbs but don't go all out for a result. On the other hand, the race is usually a genuine objective for the sprinters who have a rare chance to add a big classic to their palmares.

 

In an attempt to make the race more attractive for the classics riders, the organizers tried to make the course tougher by adding more climbs in the hilly zone. The changes made it more difficult for the pure sprinters to prevail but it didn't prompt the classics stars to come to the fore. Apart from the brutal 2010 and 2015 editions held in rainy or windy conditions, the race has not been overly selective despite the modifications. In 2014, the organizers realized that they won't be able to compete with the E3 for the attention from the likes of Fabian Cancellara and Sep Vanmarcke and so they have returned the route to a more traditional format. This means that the race is now again a more obvious target for the sprinters, a fact which has been embraced by Mark Cavendish who like most other fast finishers has again made the race the centrepiece of his cobbled classics campaign.

 

This year the organizers have slightly bucked that trend. Like in previous years, the main climb of Kemmelberg will feature twice but for the first time since 1976 they will tackle it from the steepest side when they go up the second time. It includes sections of 23% and could potentially make the race a bit harder than it has been recently.

 

However, last year’s edition was one of the few exceptions that prove that things can be different when the weather conditions are right. On a day when extreme winds marred Belgium, riders were literally blown off the road right from start, creating one of the most memorable races of the season. Already before the riders got to the hilly zone, a big selection had been made in the wind. Jurgen Roelandts anticipated things and delivering an amazing solo ride that nearly allowed him to win the race. Further back, a group of some of the best classics riders gradually formed and after Daniel Oss had been dropped, it was Niki Terpstra, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Luca Paolini, Sep Vanmarcke and Jens Debusschere who caught Roelandts in the finale. While the main riders watched each other, Paolini made a smart solo move that allowed him to take the biggest win of his career before Terpstra beat Thomas in a two-rider sprint for second. Due to his doping case, Paolini won’t be back to defend his title and Thomas won’t return either as the Tour of Flanders will be his only cobbled classic in a season geared towards stage racing. Terpstra will be back in action as he aims to take the win that eluded him 12 months ago.

 

The course

As said, the organizers seem to once and for all have shelved the idea of competing against E3 about being the Tour of Flanders dress rehearsal. Without completely changing the nature of the race, it would never be possible to design a route whose toughness would be able to match the one found in E3, and so the 2014 course returned to an easier format after a few years with repeated attempts to make things harder. As said, they have slightly bucked the trend with the addition of a passage of the Kemmelberg from its steepest side but the race isn't as difficult as it was in 2013.

 

Compared to last year, the course has changed a bit. The distance will be increased from 240.2km to 242.8km, putting it closer to the biggest classics when it comes to distance and marking its status as the third biggest cobbled classics. There are a few minor modifications in the flat early part but most of the changes come in the hilly zone. The number of climbs has been increased from 9 to 10 and for the first time in several years, the Monteberg will only feature once as the decision to tackle the Kemmelberg from its steep side when they go up the landmark climb, means that one passage of the Monteberg has been skipped. However, the distance from the final climb to the finish is unchanged and the flat run to Wevelgem hasn’t been mofified either.

 

As it is the case for most races whose name is made up of its start and finishing cities, Gent-Wevelgem no longer starts in Ghent as the shorter distances of modern day racing dictate a new point of departure. Nowadays, the riders head out from Deinze west of Ghent to start the 242.8km race, with the distance making it one of the longest races on the calendar just behind the five monuments.

 

The start of the race always follows the same format as the riders travel in a westerly direction until they reach the North Sea after around 70km of racing. The part of the course is completely flat but may actually be the scene of one of the most important parts of the race. On a calm day, it will just serve to make the distance longer and allow the early break to take off but if it is windy, the race can be rather dramatic right from the beginning. In 2013 the race split to pieces on this section and most of the field had lost all options even before they had reached the coast. The same was the case in last year’s epic edition

 

In Adinkerke, the riders turn left to continue in a southerly direction towards the border. If the wind direction wasn't right in the first part of the race, it could very well be the case on this flat stretch. This part leads to the border and the start of the hilly zone where it is time to launch the crucial attacks and try to put the sprinters into difficulty. Before they get there, they will enter France after 100km of racing.

 

In recent years, the Casselberg has been the first climb on the menu but it has now been skipped and so the climbing will start later than usual. The riders will be travelling in an easterly direction towards Wevelgem as they stay close to the border. The first challenge is the Catsberg which comes with 98.5km to go. This part of the race has been made harder with the addition of several climbs in quick succession. The Kotkereelberg comes with 95km togo, Vert Mont is next with 92.7km to go and then there are two passage of the Zwarte Berg with 90.5km and 85.5km to go respectively. From now on, it is time to be well-positioned as there will be little room for recovery and as the roads are very narrow, there won't be much chance to move up. This is the really stressful part of the race and already from the the first climbs, we usually see several attacks while several teams may be keen to set a high tempo to tire out and possibly drop the sprinters.

 

The riders will now return to Belgium continue directly to the trio of climbs that define Gent-Wevelgem. The Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg come in quick succession with 78.6km, 70.6km and 66.6km to go respectively, with the small De Pingelaar coming in between the first two climbs. This is where it is time to make a selection. The best classics riders usually use the Kemmelberg which is the hardest of the ascents, to test their legs. In the past, the riders went down a very treacherous cobbled descent that caused some dramatic crashes but after one of those horrific incidents, the organizers decided to send them down a paved downhill section which has made the race much safer for the riders. After the Monteberg, it is time to take stock of the situation but usually, some kind of regrouping takes place.

 

The riders now do a small loop before going back to the landmark climbs for a second passage. Along the way, they will pass the minor climbs of Kraaiberg, Mesenberg, Zuidlinde and Ma Campagne. This section has been shortened slightly, meaning there is less time for recovery and repositioning for the sprinters. However, this part of the course may also be used to launch attacks as the peloton is usually completely strung and no team is likely to have much control immediately after the climbs.

 

The final passage of the Baneberg comes with 39.5km to go and then the riders face the new invention. With 34.2km to go, they will tackle the Kemmelberg from its steepest side where it includes sections of 23%. They will skip the Monteberg and so this is the final climb of the race. It is usually during the final passage of the Kemmelberg that the race really explodes and this will only be more evident this year.

 

After the climbs, the attacking usually continues and while a small front group may be formed, some kind of regrouping is likely to take place further back. From there the race consists of a long, flat, easterly run to the finish in Wevelgem. This part of the course is often the scene of an exciting pursuit between the escapees that have emerged after the hilly zone and the sprinters who try to organize their troops in the peloton. History dictates that the sprinters often prevail but if the composition of the break is right and the weather has made the race sufficiently hard, a break certainly has a chance of making it. Usually, the race is decided in a sprint from a breakaway or a reduced peloton but as Peter Sagan proved in 2013, it is certainly also possible to arrive alone at the finish in Wevelgem even when the weather conditions are not as horrendous as they were last year.

  

 

 

The weather

The weather plays a huge role in every Flemish classic as it can drastically change the outcome of the race. Harsh and windy conditions make the races much harder and more selective while summerlike and calm weather increase the likelihood that things end in a bunch sprint. The courses for the Flemish classics are never so hard that a sprint from a bigger group can be completely ruled out.

 

Gent-Wevelgem is no exception from this rule and is probably the one of the classics where the difference between an "easy" or a "brutal" edition is most obvious. It is the one of the Flemish classics where the chance of a bunch sprint is biggest and it usually requires a rather tough race to avoid that scenario as it happened two years ago when the wind ripped the peloton to pieces in the early part of the race, and last year in what was an epic race.

 

The sprinters will be frustrated to learn that it could be another memorable edition of Gent-Wevelgem. Sunday is forecasted to be rainy and even though the rain may stop towards the end of the race – there are no guarantees for that – it will be a day mostly spent in wet conditions. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 12 degrees.

 

Furthermore, it will be windy, with a relatively hard win coming from a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-headwind in the first part until they get to what could be an important crosswind section. Then it’s back into a cross-headwind and then it will be a cross-tailwind in the hilly zone. After the final passage of the Kemmelberg, it will first be a tailwind and then a cross-tailwind during most of the flat run-in to the finish.

 

 

The favourites

As said, Gent-Wevelgem is the biggest cobbled classic that the sprinters can realistically vie for and this is very evidently reflected in the start list. For many of the big sprinters, this - and maybe the Three Days of De Panne and the Dwars door Vlaanderen - are the only races they will do in the holy period of Belgian racing and most of them deliberately stayed out of Friday's E3 to keep their powder dry for this big opportunity.

 

History proves that Gent-Wevelgem mostly ends in a sprint from a bigger group and even though the organizers have tried to make the course tougher in recent editions, they haven't managed to avoid that scenario too often. The course changes were brought into effect for the 2010 edition when Bernhard Eisel won a very hard and rain-soaked race but that race was followed by two sprint wins for Tom Boonen. In 2013 a very strong breakaway managed to deny the sprinters and in 2014 it was again a bunch sprint. Last year it was an epic battle in the wind and the race turned out to be extremely selective. It shows that the weather is the most important fact in the race.

 

History proves that a bunch sprint is the most likely outcome and it is very rare for a rider to take a solo win in Wevelgem. That doesn’t mean that it is a race for your pure sprinter as it is never a complete peloton that arrives at the finish in Wevelgem. When Boonen won the race in 2012, the likes of Mark Cavendish and André Greipel had been left behind in the hilly zone and they never made it back to the small group that ultimately decided the race. To be in contention in Wevelgen, you need to be a very strong rider even if the race is decided in a bunch kick.

 

For the 2014 and 2015 editions, the course was made easier but this year the decision to go up the Kemmelberg from the steeper side could change the dynamic and make it easier for the classics riders to make a difference. Furthermore, the weather forecast for Sunday looks grim and this suggests that we could be in for a hard and selective edition of Gent-Wevelgem. This will make it a lot harder for the sprinters to survive the hilly zone and also opens the door for a strong, late break to go clear in the hills. In 2013, a group that attacked in the hectic phase just after the hills managed to stay away and in 2014 a similar break was only caught 1km from the finish after Omega Pharma-Quick Step had committed almost the entire team to bring it back. Last year the group escaped much earlier and decided the race.

 

With a cross-headwind in the first part, the race is likely to get off to a nervous start and as it is more of a crosswind than a headwind, we could have splits right from the beginning. Then there’s a very important crosswind section and we could have a very early selection. This also means that an early break could be brought back very early just like it happened last year.

 

In the hilly zone, it will mainly be a cross-tailwind and this means that positioning will be more important than usual and the race will be selective. In the final part, the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind. This means that it will be easier to maintain any gaps that have been created in the crosswinds. Furthermore, it will be easier for a strong break that escapes on the climbs or just after the hilly zone to stay away. In general, the best time to attack is often just after the Kemmelberg where the peloton has been split and the domestiques are far back. It always takes some time for the sprint teams to get organized and the right move may take off in this part of the race.

 

The most likely outcome of the race is usually a sprint finish as most of the teams are bringing dedicated sprint teams to this race and go into the race with the plan so set up there fast men. However, in these conditions we doubt that 2016 will be a sprint year.

 

Much will depend on the composition of the group that will go clear in the hilly zone and whether they have an interest in working together. As always, Etixx-QuickStep have the key to the race as they will have strength in numbers. On one hand they have Fernando Gaviria who will be one of the big favourites in a sprint but they will be uncertain what he can do in this kind of tough race. On the other hand, they have a formidable list of classics contenders and Tom Boonen and Matteo Trentin will both be among the favourites if it comes down to a sprint from a small group.

 

We doubt that Etixx-QuickStep will focus fully on Gaviria as they are likely to have a few riders in the break royale that is likely to be formed. Only if all their fast guys have been left behind and Gaviria is still there will they go all in for a sprint. We can expect Tinkoff, Lotto Soudal, BMC, Trek and LottoNL-Jumbo to all have riders in the front group and this means that all the main teams apart from Katusha will be in the mix – just as it was the case in E3 Harelbeke. The Russians don’t have a strong team here and even though Direct Energie, Cofidis and FDJ also want a sprint, it is hard to imagine that they will be able to bring back a dedicated group of the strongest riders.

 

It is a very important fact that Peter Sagan has shown vulnerability in the sprints. Usually, no one wants to go to the finish with the strong Slovakian but this year he has failed to win a single sprint at the end of a tough race. It has long been known that he often explodes spectacularly at the end of the classics but it has been more evident than usual in 2016. He was beaten by Van Avermaet in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, he failed in Strade Bianche and Van Avermaet was again the fastest in the tough penultimate stage of Tirreno-Adriatico. Most recently, Kwiatkowski beat him in E3. His rivals will no longer be afraid of going to the finish with the world champion. Hence, we expect a small group of favourites to decide the race.

 

With a flat run-in to the finish, everything can happen from a small group. Most of the leaders will be isolated so as it was the case in Harelbeke, they will be looking to Etixx-QuickStep to close the gaps. This time the Belgian star team cannot allow themselves to miss any moves and with a flat finish, they should be able to cover the attacks. That will be the job for Zdenek Stybar and Niki Terpstra while Tom Boonen and Matteo Trentin will be kept in reserve for the sprint – provided that they have made the selection. Whether they will cooperate in such a move depends on their chances in a sprint.

 

To recap our predictions, we expect a small group to stay away after the Kemmelberg. From this group, we will see lots of attacks in the flat run-in to the finish. They may be successful as it was the case for Paolini in 2015 but it could also come down to a sprint from a group of favouites. A bunch sprint is less likely but cannot be ruled out completely – especially if the fast Etixx-QuickStep riders have missed the move.

 

A few days ago, we didn’t have much belief in Tom Boonen. The Belgian seemed to be beyond his best and hadn’t shown any kind of form in the opening weekend, Paris-Nice or Milan-Sanremo. However, he bounced back with a very fine performance at E3 Harelbeke which proved that he is still competitive in the cobbled classics.

 

Boonen is still not the rider he once was and he is very unlikely to win a race like the Tour of Flanders. However, Gent-Wevelgem is a much easier race and we will be surprised if he is not in the group of favourites that will escape on the Kemmelberg. He is likely to have Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra and Matteo Trentin at his side and that will put Etixx-QuickStep in a great position. Stybar and Terpstra will cover the moves and after Trentin’s failure in Friday’s sprint, Boonen will probably be protected for a sprint. With Trentin to do the lead-out, he won’t be easy to beat. Last year he claimed that he is still producing the same numbers in the sprints as he did in his heydays and he proved that by winning a few bunch sprints in 2015, including one at the Eneco Tour. He no longer takes the same risks but in a sprint from a small group, it is more about speed. He has always been very fast at the end of a hard race so Boonen is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Among the classics riders, Peter Sagan is the only rider who is able to match Boonen’s speed – depending on whether you regard Alexander Kristoff as a classics contender or a sprinter. The Slovakian is back at his best level after two disappointing years and he was definitely the strongest on the climb in E3 Harelbeke. However, he blew up in his usual spectacular fashion, losing a sprint that he should have one.

 

Unfortunately, it has happened a lot of time and he simply isn’t as fast as usual at the end of a hard race. However, Gent-Wevelgem is less tough and if he is part of a bigger group, he will have to do less work. Ideally, he will have Oscar Gatto at his side which will allow him to save more energy and then there is no reason that he can’t win a sprint or even go on the attack in the finale as he did when he won the race in 2013. He will also be a contender in a bunch sprint even though he is less likely to win in such a scenario.

 

In E3 Harelbeke, Fabian Cancellara again proved that he is probably the strongest rider at the moment. His comeback was impressive but he was left with no result in the end. Usually, we would never regard him as a contender in Gent-Wevelgem which he has mostly used for training but on an epic day he will get a chance to win a race that is missing from his palmares. He will follow the moves on the Kemmelberg and if he attacks in the finale, it is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to bring him back if he can get a gap. Furthermore, he is very competitive in a sprint at the end of a hard race and he has won this kind of sprints in the past.

 

Matteo Trentin was one of the strongest on the climbs in Harelbeke and has really emerged as a contender on the cobbles. His team decided to do the sprint for him but he failed completely. However, he will be up there again tomorrow and it is definitely not impossible that he will again get the chance if it comes down to a sprint from a small group. He has beaten Sagan several times at the end of hilly races and is usually very fast after a tough race. He will supported by the strongest teams and there is no reason that he can’t add this race to his Paris-Tours win.

 

If it comes down to a bunch sprint, Alexander Kristoff will be the favourite. The Norwegian is hugely disappointed with his form and has no explanation for his poor showing in Harelbeke. Things are unlikely to have turned around for Sunday so he won’t be up there with the best on the climbs. However, he remains the king of the sprints in the classics as he is usually the fastest at the end of a hard race. He has won numerous sprints for minor places in the monuments and the Worlds, even when he has not been at his best. The weather will make the race harder and this puts Kristoff in pole position if it comes down to a sprint from a bigger group.

 

Nacer Bouhanni hasn’t had many results on the cobbles as he never got the chance to ride in the north while he was with FDJ. Now he is the Cofidis leader and he is flying at the moment. He was very strong in Samremo where he seemed to be at ease on the climbs and he won two dominant sprint stages in Catalonia before he abandoned with stomach problems. Those health issues seem more like an excuse to be allowed to line up in Gent-Wevelgem and we don’t expect it to bother him too much tomorrow. He is a relatively light guy so he is not really suited to the cobbles but he is great at positioning himself and his form is outstanding. He was beaten by Kristoff in the sprint in Kuurne but tomorrow he could get his revenge.

 

Bryan Coquard is just coming back from injury but that hasn’t had any impact on his performances. H nearly won Dwars door Vlaanderen and he was with the best for a long time in Harelbeke. In general, he was flying already before his injury and he has been sprinting better than ever. He has matured a lot and if you are competitive in Harelbeke, you will also be up there in Gent-Welvegem. Coquard will be one of the favourites in a sprint.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo is getting stronger and stronger. Once known as a pure sprinter, he is now much more than that. He followed Nibali on the climbs in last year’s Tre Valli Varesine and he rode a very aggressive race in Dwars door Vlaanderen – and even still had something left for the sprint. If he can ride a more conservative race tomorrow, he will be one of the fastest in a bunch sprint and he can rely on a formidable team to lead him out.

 

Jens Debusschere was the man who beat Coquard in Waregem and he is developing a reputation as a great classics sprinter. The Belgian won the sprint for the minor places in Omloop and triumphed in Waregem. Furthermore, he is much stronger on the climbs than most of the sprinters and can even mix it up with the best. He is not fast enough to win the big bunch sprint but at the end of a hard race, he is one of the best. He may have to do the lead-out for André Greipel but we doubt that the German will be there at the end of a hard race as he is just coming back from injury.

 

The big question mark is Fernando Gaviria. The Colombian has been really impressive in his first classics in Sanremo and Waregem and there is no doubt that he will win these races in the future. Last Wednesday he was with the best on the Taaienberg but he suffered a bit later in the race and paid for the effort in the sprint. This race will be a lot harder so it will be much harder for him to stay in contention in the end and remain fresh enough to beat the more experienced guys in a sprint. On the other hand, he is definitely the fastest rider and unlike in Waregem, he will probably have a real lead-out this time. Gaviria can definitely win the race.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen had to skip Harelbeke due to a cold but it was more of a precautionary measure. Still it will probably make him slightly less competitive in this race. This year he is destined to have a great classics season as he has been stronger than ever in the spring and he should be up there with the best on the Kemmelberg. He is fast in a sprint and one of the best sprinters of the classics contenders but he usually misses the speed to beat the likes of Boonen and Sagan.

 

As said, Etixx-QuickStep are likely to have strength in numbers if a small group makes it clear in the finale and this will allow Zdenek Stybar and Niki Terpstra to go on the attack. Both are among the strongest riders and proved their great form in Harelbeke. They have both proved that they have the skills to make a well-timed attack in a tough finale. Stybar has a slightly better chance than Terpstra as he is faster in a sprint.

 

We are curious to see how André Greipel will do here. The German is just coming back from injury but he claims to have trained well and goes into the race with ambitions. He was close to the win in this race in 2014 but crashed in the finale. However, the race is definitely within his reach. It remains to be seen whether his form allows him to win this kind of tough race but if he is there at the end, he is of course one of the fastest and will have an excellent team to set him up.

 

Greg Van Avermaet had to skip E3 Harelbeke due to illness and is not at 100%. Still the consistent Belgian should be with the best on the Kemmelberg and then he will have options. He is usually not fast enough to win a sprint from a small group in a flat finale but at the end of a hard race, things are sometimes different. However, his best chance will be to go on the attack.

 

Finally, Arnaud Demare deserves a mention. The Frenchman was close to victory in 2014 when he finished second and everybody knows that he is in good form. However, we were surprised by his poor showing in E3 and even though he has the skills to do well on the cobbles he has often paid for his poor positioning. This could again be costly in this race but of course he is very fast if he is there for the sprints. He is strong enough on the climbs and fast enough in the sprint so it all comes down to positioning for the climbs and in the final dash to the line.

 

***** Tom Boonen

**** Peter Sagan, Fabian Cancellara

*** Matteo Trentin, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni, Bryan Coquard, Giacomo Nizzolo

** Jens Debusschere, Fernando Gaviria, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, André Greipel, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Demare

* Sep Vanmarcke, Jurgen Roelandts, Lars Boom, Tiesj Benoot, Ian Stannard, Jempy Drucker, Florian Senechal, Edward Theuns, Sacha Modolo, Danny van Poppel, Elia Viviani,