After five days that have mainly been about survival, it is finally time for the GC riders to show their climbing legs at the Giro d’Italia when the race faces its first uphill finish in Roccaraso. However, a relatively easy final climb means that it’s a stage more for puncheurs than real climbers and Alejandro Valverde has undoubtedly marked it out as his first chance to pick up the first portion of what is likely to be a huge amount of bonus seconds.

 

The course

While the first mountain stage in the Tour de France often comes relatively late in the race, the different nature of the Italian and Spanish geography means that things are usually different in the Giro d’Italia and the Vuelta a Espana. Both grand tours usually offer summit finishes in the first week and this will again be the case at the 2016 edition of the Italian grand tour. This year the first real test for the GC riders will come on the sixth day of racing but keeping with recent tradition, they have chosen a relatively easy final climb to make sure that the differences won’t get too big at the early point of the race. An uphill sprint is the likely outcome of the first mountain stage.

 

At just 157km, it is a short stage that will bring the riders from Ponte in a relatively flat part of Italy into the Apennines with a finish on the Aremogna climb in Roccaraso.The first summit finish comes after a short yet full mountain stage. After the first 20km on flat roads, the route starts to climb along easy to mild gradients for almost 40 kilometres, including a deceptive false-flat drag with the first intermediate sprint at the 25.2km mark before the category 2 climb of Bocca della Selva (18km, 5.6%, max. 10%) whose top comes at the 54.1km mark. It’s a relatively tough climb which averages 6.6% for the first 6km before an easier part leads to the final 6.5km that average 7.1%.

 

The route then descends along wide roads, yet worn out at points. From km 75 to km 135, the course runs along wide, fast and mostly straight roads, with a number of tunnels in the final stretch. After the Castel di Sangro intermediate sprint at the 138.1km mark, the route takes in the final climb leading to the finish. The final climb is 16.8km long, with an average 4.8% gradient. The first part is quite steep at 7.5%, with a short 12% stretch, followed by a deceptively false-flat drag (across the centre of Roccaraso). Seven kilometres before the finish, the route starts to climb again with variable slopes ranging from 4% to 7%. However, the final 4km average just 3.5% but the road gets steeper in the final kilometre that has a 7.1% gradient and just gets steeper and steeper. There are barely any turns on the winding road, with just some sweeping bends along the way. The home stretch, running entirely uphill, is 120 m long, on 6-m wide asphalt road. 

 

The Giro d'italia returns to Roccaraso after 29 years: in 1987 Moreno Argentin won the stage from Rieti to Roccaraso. Both Fausto Coppi and Bernard Hinault have won in the city that welcomes the race for the seventh time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders were fortunate to escape the rain in today’s stage but they are less likely to have the same kind of luck tomorrow. Thursday is set to get off to a rainy start as there is 50-60% chance of rain until noon. From there, things are likely to improve though and it should be sunny by the time, the riders get to the finish. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 15 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction which means that it will be a cross-headwind for most of the day. On the final climb, it will first be a tailwind and then a cross-headwind.

 

The favourites

The tough course was always going to be a challenge for Marcel Kittel and in the end it proved to be a bit too much for the big German. Instead, it was another German fastman who proved that he loves uphill sprints. André Greipel has always been a rider for the long, tough races – after all he has been in top 15 in the Tour of Flanders – and he showed that he is back on track after his injury-marred season.

 

When we didn’t have much confidence in Greipel yesterday, it was due to his poor team support. However, the team really stepped up for this stage and did a marvelous job all day. Especially Jurgen Roelandts was impressive as he for almost the entire final lap and as the tough stage meant that only Lampre-Merida and FDJ could do a real lead-out, it became every sprinter for himself in a battle of the best legs. That suited Greipel perfectly.

 

Furthermore, Rein Taaramae’s crash had a big impact on the outcome. It split the Lampre-Merida train just as they had taken off but more importantly it took Giacomo Nizzolo out of contention. The Italian was perfectly positioned and we would have loved to see whether the in-form Italian could have challenged the superior Greipel. To make things even worse for Nizzolo, he got no points for the points competition and as Demare sprinted to second, he is now far behind the Frenchman in the battle for the red jersey. That would have been less of a concern a few days ago but Demare has now realized that he can actually realistically go for red and today he did the intermediate sprints for the first time in the race.

 

While the sprinters battled it out, it was always going to be important for the GC riders to stay attentive as splits always occur in this kind of finale. Ilnur Zakarin and Alejandro Valverde showed that they are never caught on the wrong side of a split and they gained four seconds on their key rivals. That may not be important in the long run but it will boost their confidence as they go into the first real climbing test of the race.

 

Stage 6 offers the first summit finish but don’t expect too much from this stage. The final climb is relatively easy and only the first part has the potential to make a real difference. Hence, it is not a day for the climbers to do some damage and even though it will create a first selection in the GC, we are likely to see an uphill sprint from a rather big group. It’s definitely not a stage for riders like Vincenzo Nibali and Mikel Landa.

 

That doesn’t mean that it’s an easy stage. The first climb is tough and as the first 50km are almost all uphill, it will be a very hard start to the stage. Last year the early break stayed away in the first mountain stage which had a similar final climb, and this means that many riders will be keen to give it a try. The tough start means that it will be difficult to control things and that the break will be strong and include some good climbers. Furthermore, it is an important day for the mountains jersey so there will be a great incentive for riders like Damiano Cunego, Stefano Pirazzi and Tim Wellens to join the break. With the uphill start, they have a decent chance of making it and we could very well see them battle it out on the first climb. Cunego is the fastest of the trio but stage 4 showed that Pirazzi is the in-form rider at the moment and with a togh first climb, it is a great chance for the Bardiani rider to really start his quest to win his second blue jersey.

 

When the break has taken off, it will be interesting to see which teams will control the race. Big time gaps have opened up so unless the break contains riders that are close to the overall lead, Giant-Alpecin won’t do much. However, this is a perfect chance for Alejandro Valverde as the final climb is tailor-made for him. The Spanish team have sometimes been reluctant to chase in stages which are suited to their Spanish captain but in stage 4 they showed that they are ready to go for stage wins in the first week. That’s not a bad idea as the race is loaded with stages for a classics specialist like Valverde and if he wants to win the race, bonus seconds are definitely going to play an important role for the Spaniard.

 

Hence, Movistar are unlikely to leave anything to chance and they may even get some help from Lampre-Merida who eye another good opportunity for Lampre-Merida. Hence, we don’t give the break much of a chance and we expect it to come down to a battle between the GC riders on the final climb.

 

We expect Movistar to control things in the steep part at the bottom. It’s pretty hard but with a relatively long, flats section in the middle and a relatively strong cross-headwind, it doesn’t really make much sense to attack here. Hence, it will probably be a gradual elimination until we get to the flat part.

 

The real battle will start with 6km to go when the road again gets steep and this is where the attacks have to be launched. Astana sensed some kind of weakness from Mikel Landa yesterday and we expect them to test the Basque. They have the strongest team in this race and they will probably go full gas, maybe even from the bottom of the climb. They know that it won’t be easy to win the stage but they will try to gain time on some rivals by riding fast.

 

This is also the difficult part for Movistar. On paper, they have a strong team but they didn’t really shine in stage 4. It will definitely be possible for strong climbers to attack here and this is where an uphill sprint can come under threat. If the group is still together when we get to the easy part with 4km to go, Movistar should be able to keep it like that until we get to the final kilometre where the road gets steeper and then it will be decided in an uphill sprint. It is worth pointing out that the final 500m are actually pretty steep so even though it suits the fast guys, the good climbers should be able to do well.

 

Movistar didn’t look strong yesterday. However, they still have good climbers like Javier Moreno, Carlos Betancur, Jose Herrada, Giovanni Visconti and Andrey Amador. The longer climb should suit riders like Amador and Herrada much better than yesterday’s explosive finale so we believe in the Spanish team’s ability to control things and so we believe that it will be an uphill sprint.

 

That makes Alejandro Valverde the obvious favourite. The Spaniard is usually the best in the world for this kind of uphill sprint and he can do it in any kind of finale. He is usually the best on the steep slopes of the Mur de Huy but he can also do well in much easier uphill sprints. This is something in between and this suits the Spaniard equally well.

 

Valverde is a master in gauging his effort – just recall his masterpieces of controlling things on the Mur de Huy in recent years – so if Movistar can bring him to the final 500m, we doubt that anyone will be able to beat. In the classics, his form was clearly excellent and he even claimed to have felt better than ever before. He proved that again with his good time trial performance and the only failure for him in recent weeks was Liege-Bastogne-Liege where the cold destroyed the race for him. In this finale, the in-form Valverde is the overwhelming favourite.

 

The rider with the best chance to beat him is Diego Ulissi. This is the kind of uphill sprint that the Italian loves and like Valverde he can do it on most gradients. Two years ago he ruled these uphill sprints as he won both a stage with a medium-gradient finale and a tough stage with a real wall in the end. Last year he beat some of the sprinters in a much easier finale and so he should find tomorrow’s stage to his liking.

 

Ulissi has been riding well all year but as usual he seems to reach his best form just in time for the Giro. His ride in stage 4 was impressive and the relatively short stage should suit him as he has often struggled in the long races. Ulissi is definitely the riders with the best chance to beat Valverde.

 

Another rider with a decent kick is Esteban Chaves. He is not as fast as Valverde and Ulissi but he is definitely not slow. He will not be afraid of hitting out from afar as soon as the road gets steep and if he gets a gap, he won’t be easy to catch. The Colombian has flown a bit under the radar as he hasn’t done any racing in the build-up. However, he has followed the same recipe as he used at the Vuelta where he was flying in the first week and his excellent time trial proves that his ready. As he is still getting back to full health after his bad crash a few years ago, there is every reason to believe that he is even stronger than he was in August.

 

Rigoberto Uran is also fast in an uphill sprint and he seems to be riding really well. In fact, he hasn’t been climbing at this level in his build-up races ever. He was very good in Romandie and while his TT skills are no longer what they once were, this climbing seems to have improved. This is definitely a punchy finale that suits him well and he can both go for the sprint and attack in the finale.

 

The only other rider with a real change in an uphill sprint is race leader Tom Dumoulin. He claims not to be climbing at his best as he has done no altitude training but he is confident that he will be able to do well tomorrow. Unless Astana can really put him in the hurt zone in the steep part, he will be ready to the uphill sprint and he is fast and powerful when the road is not steeper than this.

 

Ilnur Zakarin is also relatively fast and based on his performances this year, we expect him to be in contention for the overall win if he can handle the loads of a three-week race. However, recovery is not an issue at this early stage so we expect Zakarin to be up there. As he is one of the favourites, he won’t get much freedom and he is probably not fast enough to win the sprint. However, he should still be one of the fastest of the GC riders.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have good candidate in Gianluca Brambilla who has stepped up his level in 2016. After a great start, his form declined a bit in the spring but he looked very strong on the climb yesterday. He is fast in a sprint, very aggressive and no real GC threat so he will have the freedom to attack. He may also try his hand in the final dash to the line.

 

The other GC riders have to make a late attack if they want to win the stage. Steven Kruijswijk seems to be a very good candidate for such a move. After having undergone surgery, he finally got back on track in 2015 where he did the grand tour of his life at the Giro and in this race he seems to be even stronger. He was really good in Yorkshire where the race didn’t suit him at all and he was one of the best on the punchy climb in stage 4 which didn’t suit him either. He is always one of the most aggressive riders and he will definitely try a move. However, he will maybe be too closely marked by Dumoulin as he close to the overall lead.

 

Astana will try to blow the race to pieces before going on the attack. Of course Nibali will get no freedom but things will be different for Jakob Fuglsang. The Dane already tried in stage four and seems to be climbing better than ever. He has the power to keep the peloton at bay in the flat section and even though he is not fast in a sprint, the relatively tough final 500m means that he can actually beat his rivals if he has some company in the end.

 

Sergey Firsanov has been absolutely flying this year and we are curious to see how far he can get in his grand tour debut. He has been riding solidly until now and he has the great advantage that he won’t be very closely marked. While he may suffer in the high mountains, this climb should really be to his liking and if he still has the legs he had in the middle of April, he can win this stage with a late attack.

 

One way to defend the jersey for Giant-Alpecin could be to send Georg Preidler on the attack. The Austrian has always been a big talent but now he is enjoying a bit of a breakthrough. He didn’t miss much from going with Ulissi yesterday and as he is fast in a sprint, the finale suits him well if he can join the right break in the finale.

 

Sky are all about Mikel Landa but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have other options. For the time ever, Nicolas Roche seems to be riding well in the spring as he proved with his great performance in Yorkshire and yesterday when he paced Landa back to the front after the Basque had been distanced. Sky don’t  want Valverde to pick up any bonus seconds and so it’s good choice to send Roche off in an attack or let him do the sprint. As he is fast, he can very well win this stage with a strong move in the finale.

 

We don’t believe in a breakaway but if Movistar refuse to do all the work. It’s not completely impossible. In that case, keep an eye on Tim Wellens, Damiano Cunego, Primoz Roglic Manuel Bongiorno, Simon Clarke, Joe Dombrowski, Riccardo Zoidl, Stefan Denifl and Giulio Ciccone who have all lost enough time to be given the freedom here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Diego Ulissi, Esteban Chaves

Outsiders: Rigoberto Uran, Tom Dumoulin, Ilnur Zakarin, Gianluca Brambilla (sprint or late attack)

Jokers: Steven Kruijswijk, Jakob Fuglsang, Sergey Firsanov, Georg Preidler, Nicolas Roche (all with a late attack)

Breakaway candidates: Tim Wellens, Damiano Cunego, Primoz Roglic Manuel Bongiorno, Joe Dombrowski, Riccardo Zoidl, Stefan Denifl, Giulio Ciccone