The GP La Marseillaise may have lost its position as the opener of the European season but for many French riders, it signals the real start of the season. Held on a hilly course around Marseille, the event has traditionally been one for strong sprinters and classics riders and those riders will again be expected to shine when the race opens the prestigious Coupe de France series on Sunday.

For years, the GP d’Ouverture la Marseillaise has been known as the first race of the European season but last year things changed. The Challenge Mallorca is now held one week earlier than usual and this means that the first European winner has already been found by the time, the riders roll out for the first French race.

For the riders at the start, however, it is still the first race of the season and for the French cycling world, it signals the real opening of the season. Furthermore, it is the first race in the prestigious Coupe de France race series and this means that there are important points on offer right from the start of the year.

The GP La Marseillaise kicks off a series of races held in Southern France during the months of January and February. It is held in conjunction with Etoile de Besseges which has a very similar line-up and later riders can continue at the revamped Tour of the Mediterranean which is back in a new format and with new organizers, the new stage race in Provence, the two-day Tour du Haut Var and finally the one-day races Classic du Sud-Ardeche and Drome Classic. In some countries, lots of early-season races have disappeared but France can present one of the most comprehensive calendars. While some of the events have clearly had economic problems, the French teams have perfect conditions for their build-up as there are lots of events with mixed terrain.

The GP La Marseillaise has mostly been decided in a reduced bunch sprint but when the weather conditions have been bad, it has been possible for attackers to prevent the expected outcome. Pim Ligthart, Kenneth Vanbilsen, Justin Jules and Samuel Dumoulin have taken sprint wins in the last four editions while Jeremy Roy denied the sprinters in 2011.

The course

The course for the GP la Marseillaise has a very traditional format but it often undergoes a few changes. It consists of a run through the hills surrounding the city of Marseille before the riders descend to a flat finish in the centre. This year the organizers have decided to change things a bit more than usual as they have introduced an extra climb that will spice things up a bit.

As the first race of the year, it is pretty short and takes the riders over 144.8km, with a start and finish in the big city of Marseille. The course is made up of a big loop in the area northeast of the city and this region is pretty hilly, meaning that it is no flat affair. The first 10km is a long, gradual uphill but in general, the first half of the race is not too difficult. At the midpoint, however, the riders go up the Petit Galibier (4.9km, 4.8%) and the big Col de l’Espigoulier (13.8km, 3.8%) which brings the riders up to more than 700m of altitude.

From there the riders follow a long descent and the go up the Col de l'Ange and Col de Les Bastides (3.3km, 2.8%). This is where the novelty comes as the riders will be sent up the Col des Cretes and its technical descent. Then they get to the traditional finale with the famous Col de la Gineste (7.4km, 3.1%) which has a steep first kilometre at more than 6%. The top is located just 9.9km from the finish and the final part of the race is almost all downhill. The finish will again be at the Stade Velodrome where most of the Tour de France stages finishing in Marseille have reached their conclusion. The lined comes at the end of a long, straight road.

The weather

The weather has always had a huge impact on the GP la Marseillaise which can be a brutally cold affair and very often the riders have had to ride through snow at the top of the Col de l’Espigoulier. However, it seems like spring has arrived early in France and Sunday will be a partly cloudy day with a maximum temperature of 15 degrees. There will be less wind than usual as it will only be a moderate wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind or a tailwind in the first part before they get to a long crosswind section. In the finale, it will be a director headwind though

The favourites

Early season races are always very hard to predict as no one really knows how everyone is going. Only a few riders have any previous racing in their legs and this opens the door for a surprise. Things are not made any easier by the tricky course which lends itself to several possible outcomes. The race has both been won from a solo breakaway, a long-distance break, a sprint from a small group that has escaped on one of the final climbs and a sprint from a reduced peloton, with the latter being the most common scenario.

This year the inclusion of an extra climb will make things harder than usual and there is a bigger chance that the sprint scenario can be avoided. Teams like Lotto Soudal and FDJ have fast riders that can benefit from a fast race and they will have an interest in making it tough. At the same time, there are lots of strong classics riders that will try to escape on the final climbs which will be aggressive as they always are.

Importantly, there will be a headwind in the final part of the race and this will make the final climbs less selective and make it much harder for a late break to make it to the finish. As the weather will also be pretty nice, the most likely outcome is that it will be impossible for the attackers to keep the peloton at bay. We should have the usual pursuit in the final kilometres but it is most likely to be decided in a reduced bunch sprint. However, the harder race could make the group smaller than usual.

There are not many pure sprinters in this race as they know that the climbing is too hard for them but there are lots of classics riders that can finish it off from a small group. One of them is Heinrich Haussler who is the IAM leader. The Australian is no longer the rider he once was but he is always very good right from the start. Last year he won the Australian championships and this year he has stayed in Europe to prepare for the classics. His team claims that he is in good form and this race suits him well.

Haussler is strong on short climbs and he is fast in a sprint. Furthermore, IAM have one of the strongest teams in the race and he has Sondre Holst Enger and Oliver Naesen for the lead-out. That’s probably one of the best trains in the race and they all have the climbing skills to make the selection. Haussler is our favourite to win the race.

Tosh van der Sande has had a hard start to his professional career but his second place in Paris-Tours and a good Vuelta sets him up for a breakthrough this year. He is no pure sprinter but sprinted better than ever at the end of 2015. He is a very good climber and if his form is good, he will easily make the selection. He has Tony Gallopin for the lead-out and has a very good chance to make it two Lotto Soudal wins in a row.

Samuel Dumoulin is a former winner of this race and leads a strong Ag2r team. He is always very good in January and February and this race suits him down to the ground. He is a great climber and can both follow late attacks and wait for the final sprint. He is no pure sprinter but one of the fastest riders here. He has lots of experience but is disadvantaged by the lack of a lead-out train.

Baptiste Planckaert is making his Wallonie debut in this race and he has always been very good here. The Belgian is a very consistent rider in the French races where he is very often in the top 10. He has been in the top 4 in the last two editions and is always a good starter. He climbs well and is one of the fastest riders in the race which makes him an obvious favourite.

Carlos Barbero had a breakthrough year in 2015 and he will only get better in 2016. He took several wins and is fast from a small group. Last year he was not at his best at the start of the year as he was dealing with health issues. This year he should be a lot better and on paper he is one of the fastest riders in this race. Most importantly, he can handle the climbs.

Kevin Reza joined FDJ to get a chance to do more reduced bunch sprints but he didn’t really achieve much in his first year. He hopes to do better in 2016 and should be the FDJ leader here. This race suits him very well and he should easily survive the climbs if he is in good form. Whether he is fast enough to win the race is another question but FDJ have a few fast riders to make a decent train.

Jonathan Hivert has often hit the ground running and he aims for a great start to 2016. He would love to kick it off with a win in Marseille and the race obviously suits him well. He can sprint from a small group but he probably needs the race to be selective to be the fastest. Furthermore, he is strong enough to be part of the action on the late climbs.

Tony Gallopin, Marco Marcato, Arthur Vichot and an in-form Delio Fernandez should be among the riders that will try to make a difference on the final climbs. They all have the skills to do well in this terrain and have a sprint to finish it off. In fact, they may even test themselves in a reduced bunch sprint. Most importantly, they are always very good at this time of the year.

Another rider that is suited to this race is Yannick Martinez. The Frenchman never made things work at Europcar and has now joined Delko Marseille. He showed good form in San Luis and this kind of reduced bunch sprint really suits him. However, he has not been sprinting that well in the last couple of years and it remains to be seen whether he is still fast enough to win this kind of race.

For other fast finishers, keep an eye on Ryan Anderson, Antoine Demoitie, Thomas Boudat, Daniel Hoelgaard, Kenneth Vanbilsen, Louis Verhelst, Timothy Dupont, Justin Jules and Rudy Barbier.

For late attacks, keep an eye on Gaetan Bille, Sean De Bie, Jerome Coppel, Dries Devenyns, Oliver Naesen, Rudy Molard,Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier, Julien El Fares, Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas Sprengers, Guillaume Levarlet, Sebastien Delfosse

***** Heinrich Haussler

**** Tosh van der Sande, Samuel Dumoulin

*** Baptiste Planckaert, Carlos Barbero, Kevin Reza, Jonathan Hivert

** Tony Gallopin, Marco Marcato, Arthur Vichot, Delio Fernandez, Yannick Martinez

* Ryan Anderson, Antoine Demoitie, Thomas Boudat, Louis Verhelst, Gaetan Bille, Oliver Naesen, Jerome Coppel, Sean De Bie