La Madone d’Utelle did more damage than we had expected but it was still not hard enough for Alberto Contador to drop Geraint Thomas. The Brit was only briefly in difficult and now finds himself in pole position with a strong Sky team for the hilly final stage around Nice. However, Contador is never in a mood to give up and the Welshman can expect to be put under pressure in the hard terrain that includes the famous Col d’Eze

 

The course

When the Col d’Eze time trial has been skipped, the race has always ended with a short, hilly stage in the tough terrain around the city of Nice. That is again the case for this year’s final challenge which is loaded with the tough climbs and the beautiful surroundings that characterize this part of the country. As usual, the stage finishes with a long descent to the Promenade d’Anglais in Nice, meaning that it is hard for the GC riders to make a big difference on the day when they complete their journey to the sun and reaches the Cote d’Azur.

 

As usual, the stage both starts and finishes in Nice and at just 134km it is the usual short affair. From the start, the riders will travel along the seafront until they will turn into the hinterland along gradually ascending roads. The first highlight is the first intermediate sprint at the 19km mark but the climbing doesn’t get serious before they get to the bottom of the category 3 Cote de Duranus (3.9km, 4.3%) whose summit is located at the 33km mark and which is quickly followed by the category 3 Cote de Levens (5.3km, 3.1%). A short, flat section leads to the category 2 Cote de Chateauneuf (5.4km, 4.4%) and then it is time for the first real descent.

 

At the midpoint of the stage, the riders will tackle the category 2 Col de Calaison (6.3km, 4.4%) before they descend to the bottom of the hardest climb of the day. The category 1 Cote de Peille averages 6.9% over 6.5km and summits 47.5km from the finish. Then there’s a long descent via La Turbie where the final intermediate sprint will be contested 36.5km from the line. As usual the final challenge is the famous category 1 climb of Col d’Eze (7.7km, 5.7%) whose summit comes just 15.5km from the line.

 

The final part of the stage consists of the well-known descent that ends with 2km to go but as the riders approach the Promenade d’Anglais there is the usual small 500m climb which summits at the flamme rouge. 500m of descending leads to the flat final finishing straight of 500m on the famous, 7m wide avenue at the Cote d’Azur.

 

Every year a stage finishes on the Promenade d’Anglais. Last year epic weather conditions allowed Tony Gallopin to ride to a solo win on a day when Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas both crashed on a slippery descent. In 2014 Arthur Vichot won the stage after a sprint from a small group of favourites and one year earlier Sylvain Chavanel was the fastest from a bigger group. In 2012, Thomas De Gendt won from a breakaway and in 2011 Thomas Voeckler was the strongest among the escapees. In 2010, Amael Moinard delivered a similar performance while Antonio Colom beat Alberto Contador and Frank Schleck in a three-rider sprint in 2009 when the race turned out to be more selective than usual.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The Race to the Sun ends under the sun as Sunday will be a day with beautiful sunshine and a maximum temperature at the finish of 16 degrees. There will be a moderate wind from an easterly direction which means that it will mainly be a crosswind throughout the day. However, it will be a headwind on the third, final four climbs. On the final descent, it will first be a headwind and then a cross-tailwind all the way to the finish.

 

The favourites

Tinkoff did everything they could to set Alberto Contador up for a solo win but La Madone d’Utelle was never going to make that possible. The Spaniard managed to get rid of almost everybody – only Sergio Henao managed to stay with him – but it was impossible to keep a big chase group at bay in the easy final part. If Henao had not been part of the move, a much bigger group would have sprinted for the win in the final kilometre. The outcome would probably have been the same but the time gaps would have been a lot smaller.

 

Henao turned out to be crucial for Thomas as he managed to get rid of Tom Dumoulin. If the Colombian hadn’t been there, the gains would have been a lot smaller and he would have been at risk of losing everything in the final stage where Dumoulin could go for bonus seconds. Now he has a comfortable gap and he can only lose the race if he gets dropped.

 

The final stage is a hard one but it is also very well-known. The climbs in the area are never very steep and it has often been hard to create a big difference. Some of the classics riders usually manage to keep up with the best in this stage and in the past, a sprint from a select group of GC and Ardennes riders has often been the outcome.

 

There is little doubt that Contador will give it a try. The Spaniard never gives up until it’s over and he will be searching for opportunities. In 2007 he managed to turn things around on this stage by attacking on Col d’Eze and riding to a solo win after having failed with a similar move on the previous day. He has fond memories of this stage but he knows that it will be very hard to get rid of Thomas.

 

First of all Thomas was impressively strong in today’s stage and he was only briefly in difficult in the steeper part. Tomorrow’s climbs never get very steep and Thomas is comfortable on 5-7% gradients. Contador simply needs harder climbs to get rid of the Brit. Furthermore, there is no chance that Thomas will get isolated. Today Sky proved that they are by far the strongest team in this race as they had six riders in the group at the bottom of the final climb, with only classics riders Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard having been left behind. Nicolas Roche and Ian Boswell will be there for a long time and the impressive Ben Swift and climbers Mikel Nieve and Henao will be there until they final climb.

 

This stage has often been won from a breakaway and it is always one of the most highly animated races of the entire season. The tough start makes it perfect for aggressive racing and we usually get a very big group with some strong climbers in the early part of the race. History shows that they have a chance to make it to the finish.

 

Sky will be pleased to let them stay away – even though Swift would love to go for the stage win – but Tinkoff want it differently. They will again try to make the race hard and make sure that the bonus seconds are still an option. Hence, the break will have less chance this year.

 

The Cote de Peille is the hardest climb but it comes too early for Contador to make a move it is followed by a very long descent. Hence, we expect it to come down to a battle on Col d’Eze. Rafal Majka will again set a brutal pace and then Contador will make his move. We doubt that he will be able to get rid of Thomas and then a bigger group will probably gather. That makes another sprint from a small group likely but we should look out for late attacks from non-GC riders. Most leaders are likely to be isolated and unless Swift is there, Sky who are likely to have strength in numbers, don’t want to control things. This means that a late move over the top or on the descent could pay off. Especially the flat final part is the perfect opportunity to go on the attack.

 

Tom Dumoulin was left disappointed in today’s stage and he lost so much time that a stage win is no longer enough to elevate him onto the podium. However, he would still love to get a victory and this stage suits him well. He should be there if a small group gathers in the end and he is very fast in a sprint. He proved that just a few weeks ago in the Tour of Oman when he beat Greg Van Avermaet and was only narrowly edged out by Boasson Hagen in stage one of the Tour of Oman. Among the GC contenders, only Gallopin can be expected to challenge him in a final dash to the line.

 

The big challenge will be to keep things together for a sprint. He can’t expect to have any teammates at his side even though Simon Geschke could be there. However, with most climbers also being GC contenders, most will be marked heavily. If it’s a sprint, Dumoulin will be the favourite and so he is our stage winner pick.

 

His big rival in a sprint will be Tony Gallopin.The Frenchman already won this stage last year and now he has a chance again, albeit most likely in different circumstances. Gallopin was in the first chase group today and is perfectly suited to these relatively easy climbs so he should be there if a regrouping takes place after the attacks. On paper, Gallopin is one the fastest of the GC riders but the big challenge will be to keep things together. He may have Tim Wellens at his side at this could make all the difference. It won’t be easy to control things if he manages to do so, it could be a repeat win for Gallopin.

 

As said, there is a big chance that a late move will pay off and so it’s a good idea to keep an eye on Simon Spilak. The Slovenian was taken out of GC contention due to a mechanical in stage 2 but today he proved that his form is not too bad. He is far behind in the overall standings and he is a very aggressive rider. If he gets a gap in the finale, he won’t be easy to bring back. He is also very likely to join an early breakaway. However, he needs to arrive alone as he can’t sprint.

 

Ben Swift showed that he is much more than a sprinter by staying with the best in today’s stage and he even did a lot of damage on the final climb. This shows that he is climbing well enough to be there at the end tomorrow and he was also up there late into the stage twelve months ago. However, he probably has to work for Thomas and so may never get his chance. On the other hand, Sky have an abundance of climbers so they may be strong enough to keep Swift in reserve.

 

Today’s stage was too hard for Michael Matthews. The race has still been great for the Australian and he has a chance to make it even better. Tomorrow’s stage is easier than the queen stage and it was one of his pre-race goals. With his morale having taken a beating and Tinkoff likely to go full gas, we don’t expect him to be there but it definitely can’t be ruled out.

 

Today Lieuwe Westra never got the chance to show his great form as he was taken out by a mechanical. He is out of GC contention but this could now be a blessing in disguise. No one will be marking him too heavily and he has proved that his form is excellent. He claims to be just as strong as he was in 2012 when he was second overall and he has all the skills to do well here. He is even reasonably fast in a sprint.

 

His teammate Luis Leon Sanchez has had a fantastic start to the year but apparently his crash in Algarve has taken its toll. However, he is still up there and this is a stage that suits him really well. With his great descending and TT skills, he can both make a late attack and win the stage in a sprint from a small group.

 

Rui Costa is a master in picking the right moment to attack. The Portuguese is not as strong as he was 12 months ago but he is still up there. He wants to move into the top and is eyeing a stage win and he will be looking for opportunities in the finale. As he is also fast in a sprint, he has options even if he has a few riders for company.

 

Another very aggressive GC rider is Wilco Kelderman. The LottoNL-Jumbo rider is sitting outside the top 10 and won’t be too heavily marked. He crashed yesterday but proved that he can still be up there. He has the sprint and TT skills to make it into a move late in the stage.

 

Simon Yates proved to be one of the strongest in today’s stage and like his brother Adam he has the right killer instinct. If Matthews makes the selection, he will have to work for his teammate but otherwise he will be free to attack.

 

Finally, we will point to solid breakaway candidates. As said, a break has often made it in this stage and even though it’s less likely this year, it’s not impossible. Keep an eye on Spilak, Tim Wellens, Sylvain Chavanel, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Dries Devenyns, Jesus Herrada, David De La Cruz, Pieter Serry and Simon Geschke.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tom Dumoulin

Other winner candidates: Tony Gallopin, Simon Spilak

Outsiders: Ben Swift, Michael Matthews, Lieuwe Westra

Jokers: Luis Leon Sanchez, Rui Costa, Wilco Kelderman, Simon Yates

Breakaway candidates: Simon Spilak, Tim Wellens, Sylvain Chavanel, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Dries Devenyns, Jesus Herrada, David De La Cruz, Pieter Serry, Simon Geschke