Nairo Quintana proved that he is always very hard to beat when he arrives straight from Colombia and for the second year in a row, he is now in a winning position in his first European race of the season. He now just needs to survive the final three stages and even though they include some hills, it will be a massive surprise if someone manages to turn things around. Meanwhile, the attackers, sprinters and puncheurs will target a stage win on three days that should offer them lots of opportunities, starting with tomorrow’s classic stage to Valls

 

The course

After the big battle between the GC riders in the Pyrenees, it is back into flatter terrain as the riders leave the high mountains to head back towards the coast and the traditional finish in Valls that is back on course for the fourth year in a row. The battle for the GC is likely to have been largely decided but the riders will have to be attentive on a stage that has been marked by strong winds in the past and which is well-known as the finale has been used numerous times.

 

The 187.2km stage starts in the city of Rialp at the foot of the Pyrenees and the stage is a bit of a transitional stage that will see the riders ride in a southerly direction all day as they start their journey back towards the coast. Unlike in the previous stage, the riders won’t venture into the high mountains. Instead, they will travel along gradual descending roads until they hit the bottom of the category 2 Port d’Ager (9.6km, 5%, max. 8%) after 64.8km of racing. The first intermediate sprint comes halfway up the climb at the 68.4km mark.

 

After the descent, the riders will hit slightly ascending roads while contesting the final intermediate sprint with 64.5km to go. The road gradually gets steeper until they hit the top of an uncategorized climb with 34km to go. Then a short descent leads to the final challenge, the category 2 Alt de Lilla (4.1km, 4.8%, max. 7%) which is a nasty little sting in the tail after a very long day in the saddle.

 

From the top, only 10.6km remain and they are almost all downhill, with the riders reaching the bottom just 2.5km from the line. However, the downhill is mostly on a long straight road that doesn't offer any real technical difficulties and it will be much easier for the peloton than for any escapees to keep a high pace in this section.

 

The stage ends on flat roads but the finish is a bit technical. 1.5km from the line, the riders turn left in a roundabout and 300m they go straight through another. Then they turn right in another one 400m down the road. It is immediately followed by a right-hand turn that leads to the final 90-degree left-hand turn just 600m from the line and the riders will even have to go straight through a roundabout just 100m from the finish. The road is slightly rising in the penultimate kilometre and then descends for the next 500m. The final 500m are ascending at an average gradient of 1%.

 

Last year, the windy conditions split the field as they approached the final climb and it was a small group with most of the GC contenders that emerged, with Dan Martin being the notable absentee. With a number teammates to drive the group, they stayed away before Alejandro Valverde made a surprise attack to ride to a solo win. In 2014, a little less than 100 riders arrived at the finish and it was Luka Mezgec who beat Julian Alaphilippe and Samuel Dumoulin in the sprint. In 2013 Simon Gerrans won the stage he had targeted by beating Gianni Meersman in the sprint.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

It seems that there won’t be any bad weather in this year’s Volta a Catalunya. However, Friday is forecasted to be a bit cloudy in the afternoon but there should be no chance of rain. The maximum temperature will be a pleasant 18 degrees.

 

After several days with a headwind when the riders have travelled in a northerly direction, the wind will turn around just in time for their journey back towards the coast. There will be a light wind in a southerly direction and this means that it will be another long day in a headwind. That will be the conditions until the riders make the final turn and then it will be a tailwind sprint.

 

The favourites

As it was the case in 2015, Nairo Quintana seems to start his European season on a high. The Colombian proved that his strong riding in the punchy finale on stage 3 which didn’t really suit him, was no fluke and as soon as he was back in his own terrain, he emerged as the strongest. Alberto Contador again underlined that he is in good condition but it seems that it will be another second place while Richie Porte emerges as a very strong contender by riding extremely well despite several health issues early in the season.

 

At the same time, Chris Froome is again off the pace and while it must be a cause for some concern, he can console himself with the fact that he has never been good in Catalonia. Nonetheless, it must be a frustrating experience for Sky as they arrived in Spain with their A team.

 

Quintana now finds himself in pole position and barring disaster, he will win the race overall. The final three stages have all featured on the course in the past and they have never been hard enough to chance things dramatically. Michele Scarponi managed to move onto the podium on the final stage in Barcelona in 2013 and Alejandro Valverde repeated that performance last year by picking up bonus seconds. Last year Dan Martin dropped out of the top 10 in tomorrow’s stage when the race split in the crosswinds but the top position has never changed.

 

Nonetheless, we are in for an exciting end to the race. It is always enjoyable to have Alberto Contador in second as the Spaniard never gives up. We have no doubt that he will go for it in stages 5 and 7 but we doubt that he will be able to distance Quintana. Furthermore, he will regret the lack of wind which will make it hard to split things. However, Dan Martin will still fancy his podium chances as he is just seven second behind Porte and can go for bonus seconds, especially in Barcelona.

 

With tomorrow’s stage having featured on the course three years in a row, everybody knows what to expect from this stage. The final climb is one of the final chances for the GC riders to try to make a difference and history proves that they have often tested each other. However, the final climb is not hard enough to make a difference and two of the past editions of this stage have both ended in reduced bunch sprints. However, strong crosswinds split the field in last year’s race so it has the potential to be a dangerous day. Everybody will remember that but as tomorrow will be a calm day with a headwind, we won’t have a repeat of last year’s scenario.

 

The stage has two potential outcomes. One is that the sprint teams will control things and bring it back together in time for a reduced bunch sprint. Contador will definitely attack on the final climb which will create a selection but a regrouping will take place on the descent, and it will come down to an uphill sprint. However, as bigger time gaps have opened up, it could also be a day for a breakaway as many sprinters are uncertain about their ability to make it over the final climb. In 2014, the many attacks made for some very fast racing and it the riders had passed the halfway point before a break finally went clear.

 

This year we can expect similarly aggressive racing and it should be a very fast stage on slightly descending roads. It will be war right from the beginning and we expect it to take a long time for the break to be formed. Most teams are left disappointed when it comes to the GC so for them it will be all about winning a stage before we get to Barcelona and the best chance comes from a breakaway.

 

However, we doubt that they will have any success. Three years ago Simon Gerrans made this stage his big goal for the race and the Australian proved that he is a master in reaching his targets by beating Gianni Meersman in the uphill sprint after the Belgian had dominated the sprints that year. Orica-GreenEDGE have had no luck in this race until now as Chaves is out of the GC battle and Gerrans needs a confidence boost as continues his build-up for the Ardennes. We expect Orica-GreenEDGE to control this stage to the best of their abilities and this means that we will probably get a bunch sprint.

 

It won’t be easy for the Australian team. If they don’t get any help, they may throw in the towel or try to put a rider in the break. That means that a breakaway win is definitely not impossible but the most likely scenario is an uphill sprint. The main question is which riders will survive the final climb but the headwind will make things less selective.

 

With a sprint finish on the cards, we will put our money on Simon Gerrans. Being a past winner, he knows what it takes to win here and he is perfectly suited to this kind of uphill sprint. He is a better climber than most of the fast finishers so he will be fresher at the end. More importantly, the technical finale means that lead-outs are of utmost important and this is a big advantage for him as he is supported by Daryl Impey who is one of the best in the business. They proved their strength in stage 1 where Gerrans delivered Impey perfectly and even though they messed it up in stage 2, they are probably the strongest. Gerrans’ form is a bit uncertain as he hasn’t raced much but with the classics coming up, he should be strong enough to win this kind of stage.

 

It has been a frustrating race for Sky and now the Brits will set their sights on a stage win. This means that Ben Swift will now get some support in the sprint finishes which he hasn’t really had yet. Sky may have missed out on the climbs but they still have a formidable team. If Vasil Kiryienka and Nicolas Roche string things out in the finale, Geraint Thomas will be on hand to give Ben Swift a perfect lead-out. The Brit has been sprinting really well this year and his form is outstanding. The uphill sprint suits him well and it may be time to take a long overdue victory.

 

The uphill sprint is also a great opportunity for Philippe Gilbert who proved that he is back in form after his health issues by taking third in stage 2. He is very strong in this kind of finale but he has one big disadvantage. BMC are mainly here for the GC and so he won’t have much support. On the other hand, he is great in fighting for position and if he can latch onto the stronger teams in the finale, he will be a contender. Furthermore, he has chances from a breakaway if he realizes that this is his best option.

 

Alexey Tsatevich has been sprinting extremely well in this race. Usually he is not fast enough to mix it up in the flat finishes but he has been in the top 5 in both sprints. His performance in the breakaway in today’s stage proves that the form is excellent. He doesn’t have a real lead-out but he has still managed to position himself well. In a hard finale like this, he will be fresher than most and this will give him a solid chance to win.

 

Caja Rural have an in-form Carlos Barbero. The Spaniard has been up there in all the sprints but he has always come up short. However, what he really likes are uphill sprints and he will find tomorrow’s sprint to his liking. He is not always climbing very well on longer climbs so he may suffer a bit to make it to the finish with the best but if he is there, he will be one of the best in this kind of sprint.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have numerous cards to play. Gianni Meersman is the fastest but his form is not very good. However, he likes this kind of uphill sprint so if he can survive, he will be a contender as he will have a very good lead-out. Otherwise Petr Vakoc and Julian Alaphilippe will take their chance. It will be hard for them to win but they should be up there if they can support each other. Furthermore, both of them are excellent breakaway picks, especially the in-form Vakoc.

 

Davide Cimolai is a master in uphill sprints as he proved when he won a stage at last year’s Paris-Nice. Unfortunately, his form is not very good and he is far from his best level. Furthermore, he doesn’t have a real lead-out. We doubt that he will be fresh enough in such a tough stage but if he is there in the end, he will be a contender.

 

Another good sprint option is Kiel Reijnen. The American is making his European WorldTour debut here and is testing himself in the reduced sprints which are his specialty. Tomorrow’s hard finale should suit him well and he has proved that he is fast enough to beat most of the riders here.

 

In a sprint, you should also keep an eye on Enrico Gasparotto, Maurits Lammertink, Jordi Simon,  Geoffrey Soupe, Eduard Prades, Jonas Van Genechten, Jarlinson Pantano, Alex Howes, Kevin Reza, Tosh van der Sande and Nikias Arndt.

 

If a breakaway makes it, Gilbert, Vakoc, Alaphilippe, Eduard Prades, Nicolas Roche, Dario Cataldo, Daryl Impey, Kevin Reza, Alex Howes, Gasparotto and Maurits Lammertink are good picks.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Other winner candidates: Ben Swift, Philippe Gilbert

Outsiders: Alexey Tsatevich, Carlos Barbero, Gianni Meersman, Davide Cimolai, Enrico Gasparotto, Kiel Reijnen

Jokers from a breakaway: Philippe Gilbert, Petr Vakoc, Julian Alaphilippe, Eduard Prades, Nicolas Roche, Enrico Gasparotto, Maurits Lammertink