After a one-year absence, the traditional opening time trial of the Criterium du Dauphiné is back and this year it will be more important for the TT specialists than usual. In 2014, there will be no long time trial in the mountainous warm-up race for the Tour de France, meaning that riders excelling in the individual discipline needs to maximize their gains already on the opening day before the race heads into the mountains.

The course

After the 2013 race started with a road stage, the 2014 Criterium du Dauphiné is back to tradition as it kicks off with a short time trial but this year the 10.4km in Lyon will be the only time trialing of the entire race. The distance is slightly too long for the stage to be a prologue but it is way too short to open up major time gaps and probably won't play too much of a role in the final outcome of the race.

The entire stage takes place in the city of Lyon and it is a pretty mixed affair. A left-hand turn just after the start will lead the riders onto a long, almost completely flat road that suit the specialists. After a little more than 3km, the nature of the stage changes as the riders reach a technical section that leads them to the bottom of the day's only challenge, the category 4 Montée de l'Observance (0.8km, 5.5%), whose top comes at the 4.6km mark where the time check will be taken.

The descent back down to the Saone river is extremely technical and features several hairpin bends but by the time the riders make the right-hadn turn onto the road along the river at the 5.6km mark, the nature again changes. From there it is a long, flat road all the way to the finish and only four sharp turns along the way will break the monotony in a section that clearly favours the specialists.

Lyon last hosted a stage in 2011 when John Degenkolb won an uphill sprint while Bradley McGee won the opening prologue in 2002. Two years earlier Frederic Guesdon narrowly held off the peloton to take a big win in the first stage of the race.

The weather

The riders will be pleased to get their race off under beautiful weather. It will be a day dominated by bright sunshine and the temperature will rech a maximum of 31 degrees but in such a short stage, the heat is unlikely to be a factor. It will be pretty windy, with a moderate wind coming from a southerly direction, meaning that the riders will have a crosswind in the first part and mostly a headwind in the second half. The wind may pick slightly up which could be a disadvantage for the later starters.

The favourites

There will be a lot at stake already at the beginning of this year’s Criterium du Dauphiné. Even though the opening time trial is too short to open massive time gaps, it is very important from a psychological point of view. Furthermore, a time trial of more than 10km can never be completely neglected and if the battle between the likes of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador turns out to be a pretty equal affair in the mountain stages, the time gained in the only time trial of the race may be what ultimately decides the race.

Due to its diversity, the stage suits several different riders and most riders will find sections to their liking. However, the climb is not very difficult and the descent pretty short, meaning that the differences will mainly be made on the long power sections. This indicates that the TT specialists should come to the fore while the climbers will try to limit their damage but in general the stage suits the versatile TT riders.

Among those, Michal Kwiatkowski feature pretty high on the list. It may not be right to describe 2014 as his breakthrough season but he has definitely raised his game massively over the last few months. Right from the beginning of the year, he was in excellent condition and he only had a short dip in form in Tirreno-Adriatico before he returned to his best in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and the Ardennes classics, being one of the most consistent performers in the hilly one-day races with two podiums and a top 5 finish.

Kwiatkowski tried to make use of his post-classics form to win the Tour de Romandie and he got the race off to a great start when he won the prologue. Just a few days later, however, he started to pay the price for his hard racing block and left the race due to fatigue. Since then he has had a small break and then trained for the Tour de France which is his next big objective.

This makes his condition a bit uncertain but the Pole is so extremely talented that he can usually get into some very good form by training. Like he did in last year’s race, we expect him to perform solidly in the Dauphiné and even though the climbing is probably too difficult to feature very high in the overall standings, he should get his race off to a great start in the time trial.

Kwiatkowski is an excellent time triallist and even though he would have preferred a hillier and more technical course, tomorrow’s route should suit him pretty well. The mix of flats, a climb and a technical descent suits his allround capabilities and as he proved in Romandie, he excels in short time trials. He may not have won an awful lot of those TTs in the past but this year he has clearly stepped up his level. As the biggest specialists are racing in Switzerland, the door is open for Kwiatkowski to take another win and leader’s jersey in a WorldTour race.

If the stage had been a 40km time trial, Chris Froome would have been our favourite to win but even though the Brit is an excellent time triallist, he hasn’t really excelled in prologues that are too short to suit him well. However, it would be a bad choice to write of Froome at this time of the year and a number of circumstances suggest that he could lead the race from start to finish, opening the race with a TT win.

First of all, the stage is longer than a traditional prologue and as most of it is rather non-technical, it will be more about power than acceleration and explosiveness. Secondly, the climb will be a clear advantage for Froome who should go up the slope faster than any of his rivals. Finally, he is close to his peak condition and last year he proved just how excellent he is when at 100% of his capabilities as he almost beat Tony Martin in the flat Tour de France time trial.

In Romandie, he repeated that achievement on a hillier course but the opening prologue also showed that he still lacks a bit to contend with the best in the short time trials. At that point, however, he was still suffering from a chest infection and now his condition is much better and the course more suited to his characteristics. It may be that he finishes a bit off the mark of the biggest specialists but there is definitely a chance that Froome will fire a warning shot already on the opening day.

For many years, Sylvain Chavanel was a decent time triallist but he was never among the very best. That changed when he solved some back issues and since then he has been one of the strongest in the race against the clock. Winning the Three Days of De Panne twice, he has proved that he is very hard to beat over this kind of distances and the inclusion of a small climb and a difficult descent should only suit the technical astute and powerful Frenchman.

Chavanel saw his spring campaign being ruined by illness but returned to form with strong showings in the 4 Days of Dunkirk and the Tour of Belgium. In the latter race he finished third behind Tony Martin and Tom Dumoulin in the time trial but none of those will be in attendance at the Dauphiné. This could open the door for Chavanel who has made the opening TT a big target  and with none of the biggest specialists in the race, Chavanel has what could be one of his best chances to win a WorldTour time trial.

Another great prologue specialist is Lieuwe Westra who will be gunning for victory on the opening day. If the Dutchman is back to his best, he will probably be the favourite to win on this kind of course but he had a terrible 2013 season where he never reached his best level.

After joining Astana, he seems to be getting better and he took a beautiful solo win in the final stage of the Volta a Catalunya. A crash prevented him from performing well in the classics and after abandoning the Tour de Romandie, he has been preparing for the Tour de France with the rest of the Astana team. As it is the case for most riders, his condition is very uncertain but if he can continue his upwards trajectory, he should do really well on this kind of course.

While his captain Froome has never excelled too much in short time trials, Richie Porte has always done pretty well in that kind of effort. He is a past winner of the TTs in the Tour of Denmark and the Criterium International and their distances are comparable to tomorrow’s. Like Froome, Porte has been preparing for the Tour de France at altitude and everything suggests that he has finally put his health issues behind him. Like most of the Sky team, he probably comes out with all guns blazing and there is a chance that he will beat his captain on the opening day.

Tejay van Garderen is another rider that will use the Dauphiné as a big test for the Tour de France. Like most of his rivals, he hasn’t raced since Romandie where he abandoned early due to a crash. That makes his condition a bit uncertain but as he is ramping up his form for his biggest target, he cannot be too far off the mark. This year he has been climbing better than ever before but there is a big risk that it has affected his usually splendid time trialling skills. He didn’t excel in the Pais Vasco TT and he needs to show that he is still the time triallist that he once was. Like most other GC riders, he would have preferred a longer distance but he has done some solid prologues in the past, especially on hilly courses. If he is back to his best, he should have a decent ride tomorrow.

In this race, he will be riding as a domestique but there is no reason to hold anything back in this short TT. As a track specialist and former winner of the Romandie prologue, he excels in short time trials and the inclusion of a climb should only be an advantage. As he has been ramping up his condition for the Tour de France, he may not have focused on the explosive power that is needed for a prologue but based on pure skills, he is definitely a great winner candidate.

Finally, we will select our jokers. Jan Barta is among the best time triallists in the world but the strong Czech still hasn’t taken that major breakthrough win. Tomorrow he will go all out in a quest to beat the WorldTour stars and after finishing a narrow second behind Thomas in the Bayern TT, he is definitely in great condition. He will have preferred the TT to be longer and he may lack the top level to actually take the win but he shouldn’t be too far off the mark.

Former U23 world time trial champion Anton Vorobyev has had a slow start to his professional career and it seems that he has been struggling a lot in the road races during his first 18 months. In the TTs, however, he has shown his class, finishing second in Coppi e Bartali and De Panne in 2013. This year he has hardly done any racing but last week he was close to a victory when he finished third behind Thomas and Barta in Bayern. The inclusion of a climb will be a clear disadvantage but on the flats he should be one of the strongest.

Jack Bobridge has had a very tough first time at the Belkin team but this year he seems to have found back the skills that have made him one of the biggest talents on the WorldTour. He showed great form in California where he finished sixth in the time trial and rode impressively well in the mountains and as a world record holder in the individual pursuit, he should – at least on paper – be a great prologue rider. He has never managed to transfer his track skills to the road but with improving condition, he could be up for a good ride tomorrow.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michal Kwiatkowski

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Sylvain Chavanel

Outsiders: Lieuwe Westra, Richie Porte, Tejay van Garderen, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Jan Barta, Anton Vorobyev, Jack Bobridge