Small time gaps among the GC riders have opened up but until now it has all just been a warm-up for the exciting final weekend that will crown a deserved overall winner of the Criterium du Dauphiné. First up is the queen stage which finishes on a new climb to Finhaut-Emoisson whose final steep 28% ramp to the finish will provide a huge battle between the biggest favourites for this year’s Tour de France.

 

The course

The GC riders have had four days that were all about survival and avoiding any time loss but now it is time to kick back into action and find out who's going to win the 2014 Criterium du Dauphiné. After several days of circling around on the outskirts, the riders finally head into the Alpine heartland for the first of two big summit finishes in the weekend and unlike the first test in stage 2, the final climb in the penultimate stage has the potential to do some real damage.

 

The short 160km stage from Ville-la-Grand to Finhaut-Emosson offers the riders a pretty easy start as the first 22km are completely flat. The long category 2 Cote des Gets (10.3km, 4.9%) offers the first taste of what is in store and leads to a long, gradual descent and the first category 1 climb of the race, Col du Corbier (7.5km, 7.5%). Another easy section precedes the category 2 Pas de Morgins (6km, 5.7%) whose top marks the border to Switzerland and the final part of the stage will take part entirely on Swiss soil.

 

The climb is followed by the first real descent of the day and the final bit of flat roads as the riders roll along the Rhone river to Martigny where the intermediate sprint is located. Here the real hostilities start as the final part of the stage contains two HC climbs with no flat roads in between.

 

First up is the Col de la Forclaz (12.6km, 8.2%) which is a typical, very regular Alpine climb. The top comes 18km from the finish and the first 7.8km of those are all down a non-technical descent. Then it's time for the brand-new climb to the finish in Finhaut-Emosson and this 10.2km ascent with an average gradient of 8% is a tricky one. The first part is pretty easy as only the second kilometre offers serious gradients but from kilometre 4 to kilometre 9, the gradient stays between 8% and 10%. The 10th kilometre is a bit easier at 6.2% but it will only allow the riders to recover slightly for the final 200m which are really brutal. A wall with a gradient of 28.3% awaits the riders and Thomas Voeckler who has done a recon of the climb issued a warning in a recent interview, claiming that "riders who forget to mount a 27 will be in a world of pain."

 

 

 

 

The weather

Until now, it has been hot and dry in Southern France but things may change slightly for tomorrow’s first big battle in the heart of the Alps. In the morning, it will be beautiful sunshine but as the day goes on, more and more clouds will appear on the sky and there is a risk that the riders will be hit by an afternoon shower. The temperature at the bottom of the final climb will reach a maximum of 15 degrees but it will be a lot warmer in the valley.

 

There will only be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will first have a crosswind before turning into a headwind for the first two climbs of the day. Then it’s another crosswind section leading to a tailwind after the decent from the third climb. The riders will have a tailwind on the Cold de la Forclaz and a cross-headwind on the descent before turning into a cross-tailwind for the final climb.

 

The favourites

Stage 2 may have offered the first small insight into the climbing hierarchy but the climbing in that stage was not overly difficult and only small time gaps were created. Tomorrow we will be a lot wiser as the queen stage is a real mountain stage with climbs that are a lot tougher than those encountered in the previous stages.

 

At the same time, the GC riders haven’t really tested each other for a few days but they have done some pretty hard racing, meaning that fatigue has set in. At the same time, riders who have made their return to racing this week, have not got back up to racing speed, meaning that a lot can have changed since stage 2. Tomorrow’s stage is by far the hardest of the race and it will play a dominant role in determining the overall winner of the race. At the same time, it will be the really big test for the Tour de France riders as it is the only stage that offers climbing that is similar to what they will face in July. Even though there is a final mountain stage on Sunday, much of the final GC will be determined on the final climb to Finhaut-Emoisson.

 

The GC riders were pleased to get pretty easily through today’s stage and were glad to see a breakaway ride away with the stage win, meaning that there was less tension in the bunch in the very tricky and technical finale. Nonetheless, Chris Froome went down in a crash and even though he is relatively unhurt, it could have an impact on the outcome of the queen stage.

 

First of all, the crash makes it more likely that a breakaway will stay away. In the first mountain stage, Chris Froome made it clear that he is the strongest rider in the race and it is hard to imagine that he won’t win the stage if it comes down to a fight between the favourites. This makes it less likely that teams like Astana and Tinkoff-Saxo will chase down the early break and both are more likely to send riders up the road that can be used later in the race.

 

To catch the break, Sky will probably have to do the majority of the work and we doubt that they will do what is needed to set up Froome for another win. The team has had a lot of very hard stages and Vasil Kiryienka, Xabier Zandio and Danny Pate are clearly pretty fatigued after three days with a lot of work. Froome already has two stage wins and as he may be a bit uncertain about his condition after his crash, he may be happy to see a breakaway ride away with the bonus seconds. There’s no real need for him to win another stage and he may be keen to save his team a bit after the hard start to the race.

 

History shows that breakaways have a great chance in the final weekend of the Dauphiné. For most of the Tour riders, it is more about preparation than results and the terrain is so hard that it takes a really strong team to keep things under control. Only very few squads have the means to do so and we think that tomorrow will again be a day for a breakaway.

 

However, no one can rule out that the favourites will decide the winner. First of all, Froome has a winning mentality and he rarely let’s a winning opportunity slip away. Furthermore, there is a chance that a dangerous GC rider will make it into the break on the first climb and this could force Sky to ride pretty fast all day, meaning that the escapees will be caught before the finish. Finally, Contador may have a bigger chance of winning due to Froome’s crash and so may try to use his team to set him up for the finale.

 

In any case, we can expect a fierce battle from the start of the race and it will probably take quite a bit of time before the break takes. It is likely to happen on one of the first two climbs and this means that the break will probably be both pretty big and pretty strong. Sky faces a pretty tough ask in their quest to make sure that no dangerous rider slips into the break.

 

From there, we expect Sky to set a steady pace for most of the stage but they will probably make things a bit harder on the Col de la Forclaz. It’s a really tough climb and if Froome is feeling good, he will probably use the strongest team in the race to create an initial selection. The final battle between the race favourites will take place on the final climb which is hard enough to create some big time gaps.

 

As said, we will put our money on a breakaway win. Due to the hard start to the race, it is a bit easier to predict which riders will make it as the strong climbers usually get away in this kind of start. At the same time, only a very strong climber will win in this kind of finish and this narrows the list of contenders down considerably.

 

Kenny Elissonde is a pure climber that is perfectly suited to the longer, steeper climbs that he faces in tomorrow’s stage. He showed great condition when he finished 12th on Col du Beal whose easy gradients didn’t suit him too well. Unfortunately, he was on a bad day in yesterday’s stage and he lost contact with the group of favourites when Richie Porte dropped the hammer on the final climb and so he has now lost a bit of time.

 

However, this may be a blessing in disguise. Elissonde may now enjoy a lot more freedom to attack and he will be eager to do so in tomorrow’s stage. FDJ have had a bad race until now as Demare missed out on the win in stage 3 and the team has missed the break in two of the three breakaway stages. Tomorrow they will try to make amends and Elissonde is their best option.

 

Elissonde proved that he is strong enough to finish off a breakaway when he won the Angliru stage in last year’s Vuelta. His main weakness is his lack of consistency but if he is on a good day, he has the climbing skills to win in tomorrow’s finish. Elissonde excels on the really steep gradients and so he will relish the steep ramp to the finish. This stage is tailor-made for him and so he is our favourite to take the win.

 

If the favourites decide the stage, it is hard to look beyond Froome. He may not have been able to drop Contador in stage 2 but he was clearly the strongest and had Contador on his limit in the finale. Based on his comments the last few days, he had the impression that he was in a class of his own and he seems to be confident that he will be able to get rid of his rivals when the climbs get a bit more selective.

 

The final climb in tomorrow’s stage is so hard that the strongest rider will prevail and so we expect Froome to drop his rivals. He may be pretty big compared to the real climbers but he usually copes very well with the steepest gradients. He won the stage to Pena Cabarga in the 2011 Vuelta and the stage to La Planche des Belles Filles in the 2012 Tour and those stages both ended with very steep ramps. If Froome is not hampered by his crash, he will be the clear favourite to win if it comes down to a battle between the GC riders.

 

The only rider that can realistically beat Froome is Alberto Contador. The Col du Beal made it clear that those two riders are a level above the rest and Contador managed to stay with Froome all the way to the finish. As said, we expect Froome to drop Contador on the harder climbs in tomorrow’s stage and Contador himself has admitted that he is currently a step below his key rival. Due to the crash, however, there is an opening for the multiple grand tour winner to turn things around. If Froome is not at 100% after his crash, Contador could win the stage.

 

In a battle between the favourites, we honestly can’t imagine that the winner will not be either Froome or Contador and so our remaining stage winner picks will be attackers. Going into this race, Simon Spilak was one of the overall favourites but the Slovenian struggled in the heat and lost a bit of time on the Col de Beal. Yesterday, however, he proved that he is fully ready for the Tour de France where he will be one of the Katusha leaders when he emerged as the strongest from a very classy breakaway. On the final climb, he quickly opened a very big gap and despite some very aggressive riding in the group of favourites, he managed to keep them at bay. He is far down on GC and so will have a lot of freedom and he will be pleased with the fact that it will now be colder than it was earlier in the race. If Spilak makes it into the break, he could take win number 2.

 

The same goes for his teammate Yury Trofimov. Due to visa issues, he arrived late from Russia and he paid the price in the first mountain stage. In the stage to Gap, however, he proved that he is ready for the Tour and like Spilak he is a bit behind in the overall standings. This should give him the freedom to go on the attack and he definitely has the legs to finish it off.

 

Ryder Hesjedal is doing this race on the back of the Giro and even though he is clearly no longer in the condition he was a few weeks ago, he is still riding strongly. He proved so in the stage to Gap when he kept up with the very strong duo of Romain Bardet and Tejay van Garderen. He has been very aggressive so far and there is no doubt that he has set his sights on a stage win in the weekend. A long, hard day in the saddle suits him perfectly and if he makes it into the break, he could very well be the strongest rider.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. George Bennett was riding reasonably well in the first mountain stage but like Elissonde he lost time yesterday. This means that he is now out of the GC battle and today he chose to save energy for tomorrow. He is not at the level of the best climber in this race but he is not far behind. If he makes it into the break, he will probably be one of the strongest and this could allow him to take a breakthrough win.

 

Young Valerio Conti was in the break in today’s stage and it may be a bit too much for him to go on the attack twice in a row. However, he has been riding really well in this race and did really well to finish in the top 30 in the first mountain stage. As a pure climber, tomorrow’s stage should suit him a lot better. If he has anything left in the tank, the 20-year-old could be part of the breakaway again.

 

BMC have a really strong team in this race and they have several riders that could win tomorrow’s stage. Peter Velits, Peter Stetina and Amael Moinard are all strong riders that have lost a bit of time and as Tejay van Garderen is no longer in podium contention, they may enjoy a bit of freedom. Especially Moinard was riding really well in yesterday’s stage and if he has the same kind of legs tomorrow, he could take a big win in his home country like he did a few years ago in Paris-Nice.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Kenny Elissonde

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Alberto Contador

Outsiders: Simon Spilak, Yury Trofimov, Ryder Hesjedal

Jokers: George Bennett, Valerio Conti, Amael Moinard, Peter Stetina