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Three names stand out as the race's major favourites. The biggest one is Peter Sagan. The versatile Slovakian is a master of almost any terrain, and the cobbles are certainly not an exception. 

Photo: RCS Sport

E3 HARELBEKE

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FABIAN CANCELLARA

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FILIPPO POZZATO

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HEINRICH HAUSSLER

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JURGEN ROELANDTS

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LUCA PAOLINI

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PETER SAGAN

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SYLVAIN CHAVANEL

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21.03.2013 @ 22:48 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

After yesterday's small appetiser, Dwars door Vlaanderen, the Belgian classics season kicks off in earnest on Friday with the WorldTour race E3 Prijs Vlaanderen-Harelbeke. With a course similar to the one found a week later in the Tour of Flanders, it is the perfect testing ground for the greatest specialists who will go all out for the victory one last time before the real showdown in Vlaanderens Mooiste.

 

E3 Prijs Vlaanderen-Harelbeke is growing in status each year and is hugely popular among the sport's biggest stars. Traditionally being held the Saturday ahead of the Tour of Flanders, it was last year granted WorldTour status and moved back a day in the calendar to give a rest day ahead of another WorldTour event, the Gent-Wevelgem.

 

The reason for this recognition from the UCI is obvious. With its course resembling the one found in the biggest Flemish race, it is often referred to as the mini Tour of Flanders, and most riders have found out that it is the perfect preparation for their biggest objective. No contender with any ambitions in Flanders is absent from the start list, and the race can present a line-up which is fully comparable with the one we will see one week later.

 

However, the race is much more than just preparation. With the importance of WorldTour points constantly increasing, the weekend with E3 Prijs Vlaanderen and Gent-Wevelgem offers a perfect opportunity for hard-pressed teams to boost their account. The favourites for Flanders often choose to hold back in Gent-Wevelgem and offer the place in the spotlight to the hardest sprinters, but they usually put out all their energy in Harelbeke.

 

The race was long known as Tom Boonen's race. In his heydays from 2004 to 2007, he won four consecutive editions of the Belgian semi-classic. During his turbulent years in 2010 and 2011, he was, however, forced to give away the throne to archrival Fabian Cancellara who used stunning solo performances in those two editions to build up his major favourite role for the Tour of Flanders.

 

Last year, Cancellara failed to make it three in a row as he was hit by Carlos Barredo after having punctured in an acceleration on the Oude Kwaremont. On a sunny day with no wind, it was difficult to make the usual selection, and the race ended in an unusual bunch kick from a group of 48 riders. Tom Boonen regained his firm grip on the race by outsprinting an extremely disappointed Oscar Freire to start off his unprecedented run of success where victories in E3, Gent-Wevelgem, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix made for a memorable spring performance.

 

The course

With its nickname being the mini Tour of Flanders, the build-up of the course and the script of the race is very similar to the one seen in the greatest race on Flemish soil. The main difference is the length as the 209 km in Harelbeke's race make for a substantially easier race than the 260 km in Vlaanderens mooiste.

 

After the start in Harelbeke, the race follows a mostly flat course in its opening phase. Interrupted by only two of the famous hellingen - short, steep, often cobbled climbs in the Flemish Ardennes - the first 120 km mainly serve to create an early break and to tire the riders' legs ahead of the finale.

 

The race begins in earnest with around 90 km to go. The climb of La Houppe signal the start of the race's decisive phase, and from then on the climbs follow in quick succession all the way to the finish line. The battle for position heats up, the favourites move to the front, and crashes are almost sure to be a part of this hectic phase of the race where riders gradually drop off as the pace increases.

 

The early break will try to stay ahead until after the passage of the race's main climbs in an attempt to play a role in the finale. Meanwhile, the favourites will attack each other on the climbs behind to force a selection.

 

Accelerations can happen in any climb, but make sure not to miss the action on the 8th climb, the Taaienberg. The short, steep, cobbled climb is Tom Boonen's favourite climb, and the ascent is almost never tackled without Boonen putting in one of his trademarks accelerations on its slopes. This will certainly be a spot to reveal the true condition of the Belgian champion just one week ahead of his first major target of year.

 

Taaienberg may force an early selection, but it is the dual challenge of the Paterberg and the Oude Kwaremont inside the final 40 km that should be the stomping ground for the hardest accelerations from the favourites. The former is short and extremely steep while the latter is a long, gradual ascent. The duo form the main ingredient on the new, final circuit in the Tour of Flanders, and both have the potential to do major damage on the tired legs.

 

After the passage of Kwaremont, the route becomes substantially easier, and it is a mostly flat final 30 km run-in to the finish in Harelbeke. The final two hellingen, the Knokteberg and the Tiegemberg, serve as launch pads for final attacks, and even though they are not the hardest challenges in the Flemish region, their position towards the end of a hard race make them feel like an HC climb in the Alps.

 

The weather

With the European weather turning plenty of European races into epic battles of survival, some riders may struggle to remember their last race not taking place in rain, snow and freezing cold. Tomorrow, they finally seem to get a rare chance to compete in dry conditions and with temperatures just below the 10 degrees mark, we should avoid scenes like the ones seen in last Sunday's Milan-Sanremo.

 

However, this does not make for an easy race. The sun will be firmly hidden behind a thick layer of clouds, and the riders will have to deal with a strong wind from an easterly direction. As a consequence, the riders will enjoy a substantial tailwind on the final run-in towards the finish in Harelbeke, increasing the chance for any selection to stick all the way to the finish. With wind often playing a crucial role in the Flemish classics, the potential for a dramatic race is there, and it would be a surprise to see a repeat of last year's big group sprint at the finish in Harelbeke.

 

The favourites

As already said, last year's bunch sprint was a very rare occurrence in the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen which is mostly won after a hard battle between the classics specialist - either in a solo effort or after a sprint between a very select number  of favourites. With a windy day predicted and a tailwind on the final run-in, we should expect the race to return to its usual pattern.

 

Three names stand out as the race's major favourites. The biggest one is Peter Sagan (Cannondale). The versatile Slovakian is a master of almost any terrain, and the cobbles are certainly not an exception. He had a below-par performance in last year's edition of the E3 where he failed to produce his usual blistering turn of speed in the sprint and ended up 14th. With a 2nd place two days later in Gent-Wevelgem and a 5th place in the Tour of Flanders, he made amends and finally had his breakthrough performances in the Flemish races.

 

This year he has made a classics victory his major objective, and while he has mostly pointed to Milan-Sanremo, Gent-Wevelgem, Tour of Flanders and Amstel Gold Race as his preferred events, his competitive nature and the chance to go up against his major Flanders rivals will surely put him into the mix. No one should have any doubt over his current condition, he will be almost impossible to drop on the climbs, and he should be able to beat all of his fellow competitors in a final dash to the line. His undoing may be a lack of key support from his teammates which could play an important role in an attacking and uncontrollable finale where even the Slovakian may struggle to close all gaps by himself.

 

His main rivals are of course the duo of Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen who have dominated the cobbled classics during the last years. The Swiss does not have the same blistering condition as he had this time last year, but he proved to be on the rise with his presence in the finale of Milan-Sanremo. The lack of any attempt to get rid of Sagan in the final, flat 3 km do, however, prove that Spartacus was on his limit as opposed to his performance last year where he almost single-handedly held off the chase. Once again he faces the challenge of getting rid of Sagan before the line, but another week of training may have given him the edge that he lacked in Sanremo.

 

Boonen is the big unknown in this year's edition of "his" race. His illness and elbow problems in the early season have continued to hamper his season, and his decision to abandon a risky Milan-Sanremo made us miss an opportunity to gauge his condition after a week's hard work in Paris-Nice. If the Belgian wants to perform in the Tour of Flanders, he needs to dig deep at least once ahead of the big day - both to test himself and get the feel for a hard final back, but also to get an important boost of confidence. There is no doubt that he has chosen tomorrow's race as his preferred testing ground, and there will no longer be any time to catch up on any lack of training if he does not feature in the finale.

 

Sylvain Chavanel may be even more dangerous than his usual captain. The Frenchman seems to be in his best form ever at this time of the year, and he wants to make the most of this to finally win a monument. He was close in the Milan-Sanremo and has now put all his focus on the Tour of Flanders. His 2nd place in the 2011 edition of Vlaanderens mooiste proves that he has what it takes to be competitive on Belgian cobbles, and he will use tomorrow's race to get in one final test. He may benefit from the presence of Boonen in any hard-fought finale between the favourites, with Sagan and Cancellara most probably unwilling to drag the Belgian champion all the way to the finish line in an attempt to close any gap the Frenchman may gain in one of his trademark attacks.

 

Filippo Pozzato hopes to get revenge for a disappointing Sanremo performance where he failed to stay in the Sagan group over the top of the Poggio climb. The Italian has had a better preparation than last year where a broken collarbone severely hampered his build-up. Nonetheless, he ended up being the strongest man in the Tour of Flanders, and he and Alessandro Ballan were just meters from dropping Boonen the final time up the Paterberg. The Tour of Flanders and E3 suit him perfectly, but despite the better preparation his performance in Sanremo suggests that he is not at last year's level.

 

Jurgen Roelandts is poised for his final breakthrough in the cobbled classics this year, and the Belgian has been incredibly strong all year. He was present in the final of the epic penultimate Tirreno-Adriatico stage where he ended up winning the sprint of the Froome group. His chances in Milan-Sanremo were hampered by a bad tactical decision as he and Philippe Gilbert used up a lot of energy in a failed attempt to catch up with the trio of Chavanel, Ian Stannard and Eduard Vorganov, and he might have joined the front group on the Poggio, had he saved his strength. He missed the classics last year, but proved his potential in 2011, and with his strong sprint he has the dual weapon of strength in the climbs and a fast final kick.

 

Luca Paolini (Katusha) is as always a really dangerous dark horse. He was one of the strongest in E3 and the Tour of Flanders last year, but a waste of energy ended up costing him a top result. This year he seems to be even stronger as evidenced by his win in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and his presence in the front group in Milan-Sanremo. The major favourites may still underestimate the experienced Italian a bit, and he may exploit any internal rivalry between the biggest names to slip off the front on the final run-in to the line.

 

Heinrich Haussler (IAM) has struggled to rediscover the sensation which brought him a 2nd in Milan-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders in 2009. This year he claims to be climbing better than ever, and his past racing proves that he may be right. In Paris-Nice, he was able to keep up with the pure climbers for an unusually long span of time, and he was present in the group sprinting for 8th in Milan-Sanremo. His improved climbing has been at the cost of some power in the sprint, but that may be of less importance in races like E3 and the Tour of Flanders.

 

Other names deserving a mention are John Degenkolb, Thor Hushovd and Philippe Gilbert. Degenkolb had his preparations hampered by an early abandonment from the Tirreno-Adriatico due to a muscle injury, but his strong performance in the Milan-Sanremo proved that he is ready. The cobbles suit him, and with his fast finish he is a danger man if a smaller group arrives at the end.

 

Thor Hushovd seems to be back to his best after an illness-plagued 2012. Like Roelandts, he was in the top 10 in the epic penultimate Tirreno stage, and his Milan-Sanremo chances were only destroyed by a mechanical incident. The short, steep climbs of the Flemish classics do not suit him perfectly, and he has never been a top contender on Belgian soil, but everybody knows his strength in a sprint after a long, hard race and so few would like to arrive in Harelbeke in the Norwegian's company.

 

Philippe Gilbert has been on the podium of the Tour of Flanders and is one of the very few to shine both on the cobbles and in the Ardennes. He is certainly much better than he was last year, but he still seems to lack much of the amazing strength he had in 2011. One would have expected him to be able to join the front group in Milan-Sanremo, but the world champion's jersey was nowhere to be seen. He must be delighted to know that his major targets of the Ardennes classics are still some weeks away.

 

***** Peter Sagan

**** Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen

*** Sylvain Chavanel, Luca Paolini, Filippo Pozzato, Jurgen Roelandts, Heinrich Haussler

** John Degenkolb, Thor Hushovd, Philippe Gilbert, Yoann Offredo, Lars Boom, Sebastian Langeveld, Greg Van Avermaet

* Stijn Vandenbergh, Mathew Hayman, Ian Stannard, Bernhard Eisel, Maxim Iglinskiy, Andriy Grivko, Michael Schär, Gregory Rast

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