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Epic conditions are forecasted for the final day of the Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen

Photo: Lotto Soudal

DRIEDAAGSE VAN WEST-VLAANDEREN

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NEWS
06.03.2016 @ 14:05 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

In addition to several one-day races and Paris-Nice in the weekend, this week offers two stage races, the Tour de Langkawi and the Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen. Every day we will offer you short previews of the stages at both the Malaysian and Belgian race.

 

You can read a preview of the Paris-Nice prologue and GP Industria & Artigianato.

 

Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen, stage 2:

The course:

The second road stage has usually been the most difficult one. It brings the riders over 182.7km from Nieuwpoort to Ichtegem and after a flat start, it enters the well-known Gent-Wevelgem terrain as the riders will go up the Goeberg, Rodeberg, Monteberg and Kemmelberg at the midpoint. The final climb comes with 98.1km to go – there’s an intermediate sprint at the top of the famous ascent – and then the riders will turn around to go back up to Ichtegem that they already passed earlier in the stage. Along the way they’ll pass the Diksmuideweg and Steenstraat cobbles and the small Catteberg climb. In the finishing city, they will end the race by doing 3 laps of a 13.8km finishing circuit. With the two small climbs of Keiberg and Catteberg, it is not completely flat but they are no big challenges. The circuit isn’t technical and the final challenge is a roundabout 800m from the line.

 

The finishing circuit has been modified and now seems to be a bit easier than the one that has been used in the past. The first part of the stage is largely unchanged and most of the riders know what to expect. Usually, it is impossible to split the field and the race has mostly been decided in a bunch sprint. However,  Guillaume van Keirsbulck managed to deny the sprinters with a late move in 2014. In 2012, bad weather made it more selective than usual and cost Michal Kwiatkowski the overall win when his teammate Julien Vermote took the lead on the final day.

 

 

The weather:

Sunday will offer epic conditions. There is a 75% chance of rain all day and the maximum temperature will only be 6 degrees. There will be a strong wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will first have a tailwind and then a crosswind for most of the day. On the circuit, the wind be coming from every direction. It will be a cross-tailwind in the sprint.

 

The favourites:

If he had hoped to get an easy ride in the two road stages, Tom Bohli was left disappointed in today’s first stage. Lotto Soudal and Etixx-QuickStep threw everything they had at him right from the start and it took until the halfway point for a break to be formed. However, the wind was never strong enough to make a difference and so things calmed down. Nonetheless, the break nearly created a surprise but it ended with the expected win for Dylan Groenewegen.

 

Bohli has made it clear that he expects tomorrow’s stage to be like hell. The weather forecast is very bad and that will only inspire Lotto Soudal and Etixx-QuickStep to really blow the race to pieces. The stage is harder than the opening road stage and there will even be a crosswind almost all day. BMC only have six riders at the start and they are all very long. Loic Vliegen may be in great condition but it will be very hard for them to control a race where the gaps are so small and a big team like Etixx-QuickStep have numerous cards to play. The race is guaranteed to split to pieces and even if Bohli is strong enough to make the selection, he could find himself isolated. There is a big chance that the race leadership will change hands on the final day and we are very unlikely to get a big bunch sprint.

 

We expect a big selection to be made in the hilly zone and then the attacking will start. It won’t be impossible to get a reduced bunch sprint but if the right group with riders from Lotto Soudal, Etixx-QuickStep and Katusha gets clear, they will probably decide the stage.

 

Tosh van der Sande has been riding very well recently and has clearly improved his level since last year’s Vuelta. He was one of the best in Le Samyn and today he was second in the bunch sprint. We expect him to be part of the action in tomorrow’s attacks as he will definitely be one of the best on the climbs. We predict a small group to decide the race and the in-form Belgian could very well be there. If that’s the case, he will probably be the fastest so we put our money on the young Belgian.

 

Dylan Groenewegen has proved that he can be up there with the best in a classics race like this and he is definitely the fastest rider here. However, he has to wait for the bunch sprint and won’t go on the attack after the climbs. We don’t expect a bunch sprint finish but if it comes down to a battle from a small peloton, he will be the man to beat.

 

Katusha had bad luck in today’s sprint as both Alexander Porsev and Alexei Tsatevich were caught out in a crash. Tomorrow they hope to bounce back and they will ride aggressively in the finale. Tsatevich has proved that he can be up there with the best and he is fast in a sprint if he joins the right group. Porsev will be one of the favourites in case of a reduced bunch sprint. Viacheslav Kuznetsov is another fast breakaway candidate as is in-form youngster Nils Politt.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have to ride aggressively with their many GC contenders. The in-form rider at the moment is Lukasz Wisniowski who us very strong at the moment. He has a decent sprint and could very well be in the right group in the finale. The main challenge for him is that he is a GC contender and so may be a bit too heavily marked. That could open the door for Davide Martinelli who is even faster in a sprint. Guillaume Van Keirsbulck is a third option but he is less fast.

 

Florian Senechal is no real GC threat and so should get some freedom. His form is great and he is strong in these conditions. Furthermore, he is very fast if he is in the right group in the finale. Toms Skujins also likes a tough race like this and he also has the speed to win a sprint from a breakaway.

 

Lotto Soudal’s GC rider is an in-form Sean De Bie. He could very well be in the mix but he may not be fast enough to win the stage. That can’t be said about Andrea Pasqualon who is much more than a pure sprinter. He won’t win a bunch sprint but if he brave enough to attack, he can win the stage from a breakaway. Finally, we will point to Gediminas Bagdonas, Preben Van Hecke and Gijs Van Hoecke who are all in good form.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tosh van der Sande

Other winner candidates: Dylan Groenewegen, Alexey Tsatevich

Outsiders: Davide Martinelli, Lukasz Wisniowski, Alexander Porsev, Viacheslav Kuznetsov, Florian Senechal

Jokers: Guillaume Van Keirsbulck, Nils Politt, Toms Skujins, Sean De Bie, Andrea Pasqualon, Gediminas Bagdonas, Preben Van Hecke, Gijs Van Hoecke

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