We have seen the first small glimpses of the climbing hierarchy in this year’s Tour de France but tomorrow it is time to fully reveal who’s hot and who’s not in the race. For the first time, the riders face a big summit finish when an incredibly hard day is brought to an end on the brutally steep climb to La Planche Des Belles Filles where Chris Froome took his maiden Tour victory two years ago.

 

The course

The riders are going into their tenth straight day of racing and are now looking forward to their first rest day. To get a chance to recover, however, they first have to overcome the final of the three stages in the Vosges which offers the first major summit finish of the race. After a two-absence, the climb to La Planche des Belles Filles will make a welcome return. It made a successful debut in 2012 and as it did back then, it will offer the first firm indications of potential winners of the race.

 

The stage is just 161.5km long and brings the riders from Mulhouse to the top of the relatively new climb which has already taken a prominent spot in the heart of many cycling fans. The first 20km are completely flat but they make up the only level section of the race. From now on the riders take on seven climbs in quick succession and there is virtually no flat in between.

 

First up is the Col du Firstplan (category 2, 8.3km, 5.4%) whose descent leads to the intermediate sprint which is slightly uphill but pretty straightforward. Then it’s time for the Petit Ballon (category 1, 9.3km, 8.1%) and the Col du Platzerwasel (category 1, 7.1km, 8.4%) that are both pretty tough. The next section is easier as it is made up of the three descents and the climbs Col d’Oderen (category 2, 6.7km, 6.1%) and Col des Croix (category 3, 3.2km, 6.5%).

 

The finale starts with 21.5km to go when the riders hit the bottom of Col des Chevrieres (category 1, 3.5km, 9.5%) which is a nasty little affair. The third kilometre has an average gradient of a massive 14.9% and a steep 18% section while the final 500m are a lot easier at a 3% gradient. Its top comes 18km from the line and they are made up of a descent, a short flat valley section and the 5.9km category 1 climb to the finish. It has an average gradient of 8.5%, with the first 5km being pretty regular at a gradient of 8-9% with a few 11-13% sections along the way. 500m from the top, there is 100m of flat roads before the riders turn onto the short 250m, 20% ramp to the finish.

 

In 2012, a select group consisting of Chris Froome, Cadel Evans, Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali and Rein Taaramae arrived at the bottom of the final ramp after Sky had blown the race to pieces on the steep slopes. Having already done a lot of work earlier on, Froome proved his class when he won the uphill sprint, putting two seconds into Evans and Wiggins while Nibali and Taaramae both lost a bit more. The stage is held in Thibaut Pinot’s home region and he will do his utmost to win in front of his family and friends.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders were not spared from rain in today’s stage but things should improve for their final adventure in the Vosges. On a partly cloudy day, the riders may even get the chance to ride parts of the stage in sunndy conditions. It won’t be overly hot though as the temperature in the valley will only be 20 degrees while it will be 12 degrees on the top of the highest climbs.

 

There will only be a light wind from a mainly westerly direction. This means that the riders will first have crosswind until the reach the intermediate sprint. Then they will turn into a cross-headwind that will last until the hit the bottom of the penultimate climb. From there, it’s a crosswind before they turn into a tailwind for the finale, including the final ascent.

 

The favourites

The riders may already have done some climbing but until now the stages have mainly been dominated by short, steep ascents. Today was the first day with some longer climbs but they came way too far from the finish to make a difference.

 

Tomorrow things will be different as the riders face their first day with several long climbs. They may not be as long as the big mountains in the Alps and the Pyrenees but they are definitely long enough to favour the pure climbers over the explosive guys that have had an advantage until now. Furthermore, the climbs are a lot steeper than today’s pretty easy ones which makes the terrain much tougher for both the GC riders and the sprinters who will have to fight hard to make the time cut in this stage.

 

It’s Bastille Day and this means that virtually all the French riders want to go on the attack. At the same time, the breakaway definitely has a chance of making it to the finish and so we are likely to be in for another incredibly fast start to the stage. It will probably take some time for the break to get clear and there is a big chance that the elastic hasn’t snapped by the time the riders reach the first climb.

 

This means that the stage will be a lot harder to control for Lotto Belisol who will do their utmost to honour Tony Gallopin’s yellow jersey. The team isn’t made up of climbers and after the loss of Bart De Clercq, Gallopin will have to rely on Lars Bak, Jurgen Roelandts and most notably Adam Hansen to control things. That will be a tough ask and it would be no surprise if a big group of strong climbers get clear in this hard terrain.

 

When things calm down, Lotto Belisol will assume their position on the front and all will depend on how Tinkoff-Saxo will tackle the stage. Astana will be pleased to take a back seat, Sky have made it clear that they will have a conservative approach and Movistar are a bit uncertain about Valverde after his poor showing yesterday.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo will definitely hit the front at some point in the stage as they need to make this stage as hard as possible. After a poor start, they played with their muscles in yesterday’s stage and with the likes of Rafal Majka, Michael Rogers and Nicolas Roche, they definitely have the strength to make this a pretty tough affair. The main question is whether they also want the stage victory if so, if they can bring back what is likely to be a strong breakaway in the very difficult terrain.

 

In fact, we don’t think that Contador is too focused on the stage win and so the breakaway has a good chance of making it to the finish. On the other hand, Tinkoff-Saxo will try to make the race so hard that it may spell the chance for the escapees. As all the work will be left to Tinkoff-Saxo and Lotto Belisol, there is a 50-50 chance that the break will make it to the finish.

 

The final climb is a pretty short one and so it may suit explosive riders more than the pure climbers. On the other hand it comes at the end of a very hard day – much harder than it was in 2012 – and this will favour the real grand tour specialists. In 2012, the strongest climbers excelled and the climb made a pretty big difference. With a harder stage in their legs, the riders will be a lot more fatigued and so we can expect some decent time gaps.

 

The penultimate climb is tough but it is very unlikely that the GC riders won’t save all their energy for the final climb. It will all come down to a big showdown on its slopes and as it is steep right from the bottom with no room for recovery, the GC riders can allow themselves to attack from afar. Tinkoff-Saxo will probably set a fast pace right from the bottom and then Contador will make his first move in one of the steep sections at the midpoint.

 

If it comes down to a final battle between the GC riders, Alberto Contador is the overwhelming favourite. All year he has proved that he is a step above the rivals that are left in this year’s race and nothing suggests that things are any different in the Tour. Reportedly, he is 2kg lighter than he was last year and he claims to be at the same level as he was in 2009 when he was probably stronger than at any other point in his career.

 

Yesterday Contador made several attacks and finally made Nibali crack just before the line. None of them were suited to that kind of very explosive climb and even though it may favour Contador slightly more than Nibali, it is hard to imagine that things will be turned around on a longer climb. Furthermore, the short, steep ramp to the finish is better for the Spaniard than the Italian and so Contador will be the favourite even if they are still together by the time they make the final turn.

 

Finally, Contador is known for his great consistency while Nibali usually has bad days during a grand tour. Everything suggests that Contador is a step above the rest and if the favourites are set to decide the stage, we honestly can’t imagine that Contador won’t take the win.

 

The rider who could create the surprise is Richie Porte. The Australian did excellently in yesterday’s stage on a climb that didn’t suit him at all. Tomorrow’s stage is a lot better for the Sky captain and even though he would probably have preferred the final climb to be a bit less steep, he should be closer to the best than he was in the first uphill finish.

 

Last year Porte proved that he is up there with the very best when he is at 100% and this year he claims to have better numbers than he had 12 months ago. He may be unable to drop Contador and Nibali but if the two race favourites look at each other, Porte could be the rider to exploit the situation.

 

Yesterday Nibali almost matched Contador pedal stroke for pedal stroke and the Italian is clearly back at the level he had when he won the Giro in 2013. Tomorrow’s longer climb should suit him a lot more and he will also be pleased to have had a harder day before getting to the bottom of the final ascent.

 

However, Nibali will be more focused on keeping up with Contador than taking the stage win and it is very unlikely that he will make any moves himself. In a sprint against Contador on the steep ramp to the finish, he will be the underdog and so it is hard to imagine that Nibali will win another stage tomorrow.

 

If a breakaway stays away, the winner will definitely be a strong climber. As the break is likely to get clear on the first climb, you need very good climbing legs to join the early move. Furthermore, only the strongest climbers can stay away in a stage like this one and this means that the field of potential winners is a small one.

 

Today Joaquim Rodriguez made it clear that he wants to win the mountains jersey and to do so, he needs to go on the attack in tomorrow’s stage as well. He may not yet be in his best form but today he proved that he is getting better. He claimed to have struggled more than he expected but he still seemed to be one of the strongest in the big group. The final steep climbs suits him perfectly and if he makes it into the right group, he will be hard to beat.

 

His teammate Simon Spilak was one of our outsiders for today and he proved that he is very strong when he ripped the 28-rider group apart on the second climb. Of course today’s effort will have cost some energy but as he quickly realized that the stage win was beyond his reach, he saved himself in the finale and he will be ready to attack again. Spilak is one of the best climbers in this race and he excels in the pretty cold condition. Look out for the Slovenian to go on the attack again.

 

Daniel Navarro crashed in the early part of the stage and decided to forget about the GC to go for stage victories. Yesterday he climbed really well and today he was on the attack again. Like Spilak he didn’t use too much energy in the finale and so he will be ready to go again. In fact, he seems to be climbing better than he did last year when he finished 9th overall and this makes him an obvious stage winner candidate.

 

Crashes and poor positioning mean that Leopold König has already lost almost 10 minutes, and the Czech is now considering a change of tactics to focus on stage wins instead of the GC. Today he attacked in the early part of the stage and tomorrow he could do so again. Yesterday he was climbing incredibly well on the penultimate climb and he seems to be one of the strongest riders in the race. His time loss may be a blessing in disguise when it comes to going for a stage win and if he makes it into the right break, he will be hard to beat.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Lampre-Merida are mostly focused on Rui Costa and Chris Horner but it may not be a bad idea to send a rider up the road. Kristijan Durasek seems to be climbing pretty well at the moment and he could be the rider to make a move. If the break stays away, he may get his chance to go for glory and the tiny Croatian has the climbing skills to finish it off.

 

IAM are now only focused on stage wins and this means that Sebastien Reichenbach will be free to go on the attack. The Swiss is riding his first grand tour but in the Dauphiné he proved that he has the legs to match the best at the WorldTour level. So far he has been saving his energy but he seems to be at a decent level. Tomorrow’s stage suits him well and if he can gauge his efforts correctly, he will be a danger man on the final climb if he is part of the right breakaway.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alberto Contador

Other winner candidates: Richie Porte, Vincenzo Nibali

Outsiders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Simon Spilak, Daniel Navarro, Leopold König

Jokers: Kristijan Durasek, Sebastien Reichenbach