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Starting at 10.30 you can follow the crucial time trial to Mont-Saint-Michel in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live

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TOUR DE FRANCE

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10.07.2013 @ 10:30 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The climbers fear it. Chris Froome sees it as an excellent opportunity to pad his lead on GC even further. And the time trial specialists lick their lips in anticipation of the long, flat stretches that allow them to show off their immense power. The spectacular time trial to the scenic tidal island Mont-Saint-Michel is one of the most decisive stages in this year's Tour and while it is not very long, it should see some significant time gaps open up between the GC contenders. Starting at 10.30, you can follow the stage in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live

 

It's time for Chris Froome to deal his rivals a serious blow as July 10 will be the day of the first of two individual time trials in the race. The stage will snake its way along the coast in the Eastern part of Normandy very close to the border to Bretagne. The route is slightly undulating in its first part but the final half is almost completely flat, thus making it one for the true specialists. There will be plenty of long straight roads on the way to the extremely spectacular finish on the rocky tidal island Mont-Saint-Michel where the riders will take a U-turn before heading the final 500m back to the finish line which is located just in front of the bridge that leads to the island.

 

Many riders struggled in the heat in Southern France and had hoped to be faced with slightly lower temperatures in the Northern part of the country. Today that certainly wasn't the case and it will be no different tomorrow. Once again the riders will enjoy bright sunshine and the temperatures are expected to reach 27 degrees. There will be moderate wind from a Northwesterly direction which means that the riders will have to deal with a crosswind until the first intermediate check at the 9,5km mark and from then on it will mostly be a cross-tailwind. The wind should pick up slightly as the day goes on, thus offering the GC riders a bit of an advantage over the earlier starters as they will enjoy a stronger tailwind.

 

The race has one outstanding favourite. World time trial champion Tony Martin has been on fire throughout the entire season and honestly, it is hard to imagine anyone beating the German on a course that is tailor-made to his immense power. He was unable to rediscover his 2011 form last year and had a mostly disappointing season but this year he has been back to his best. Whenever he has had the chance, he has crushed the opposition, opening up immense time gaps in most of his time trials, and he has only be defeated once: in the Tour de Romandie mountain prologue whose length and profile did not suit him at all.

 

Only two factors speak against a world champion win tomorrow: Martin will be an early starter and the slightly increasing wind should put him at a disadvantage. He had a bad crash in stage one, suffering several injuries but has recovered surprisingly well from his spill. At first, he claimed that he would be unable to reach 100% of his condition again during the Tour but his performances already in the hilly stage 3 and in the team time trial where his immense relays saw his team finish only 0,75 seconds off the win suggest that he still has plenty of power. Since then he has worked for Cavendish but otherwise taken it easy and everything suggests that he should be ready for tomorrow.

 

His biggest rival could very well be Chris Froome. While the Brit is not regarded as a real time trial specialist, he has shown on numerous occasions that he is really strong, also on flat power courses. He was only beaten by Bradley Wiggins in the flat final time trial last year and at the Olympics he surprised himself by finishing 3rd against all the specialists. This year he finished 3rd on flat courses at both the Tour de Romandie and the Dauphiné and since then his condition has even improved.

 

We would not be surprised if he gets quite close to Martin's time. First of all he has the benefit of a better recovery than the specialists and late grand tour time trials are usually dominated by GC riders. At the same time, he will benefit from the increased wind and at his current fitness level, it would be a mistake to completely rule out another Froome win.

 

Jonathan Castroviejo appears to have timed his condition for the Tour de France perfectly. If anyone thought that he was just a time trial specialist, his performance in the dramatic stage 9 in the Pyrenees proved those assessments wrong. Leading the group of favourites all the way to the bottom of the final climb, he proved that he is on fire these days.

 

At the same time, he has significantly stepped up his level as a time triallist this season. A 5th place at the Tirreno-Adriatico and a 4th place at the Dauphiné proves that he has now entered the world elite in the discipline and he most recently crushed the opposition at his national championships. He will be allowed to go full gas as Movistar looks to solidify their lead in the teams classification and he should be in the running for a spot on the stage podium.

 

Svein Tuft was the driving force behind Orica-GreenEdge's impressive team time trial win and his performance during the early part of the race suggest that he has overcome an illness-plagued spring season just in time for his Tour debut. He struggled to find his best level during his first years as a ProTeam rider but since he joined his Australian team, he has developed into one of the very best time triallists on flat power courses. Last year he almost won the Eneco Tour by virtue of a dominant performance in the time trial and just prior to the Tour he left his rivals behind in the Tour of Slovenia time trial. The flat course should suit him well and we expect a top result from the veteran Canadian.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step has a bunch of time trial specialists and while Tony Martins stands out as the biggest name, the team has a couple of other riders that should be in the running for a spot on the stage podium. During the first part of the race, Michal Kwiatkowski has proved that he is in splendid condition and he is also one of the very best time triallists in the world. At the Dauphiné where his form was nowhere near its current level, he finished 5th and he has a good chance of putting in a similar performance tomorrow. We expect him to fade towards the end of the race but up until now, he has not shown signs of slowing down. He will have plenty of motivation as a good performance would allow him to - probably only temporarily - take back the white jersey from Nairo Quintana.

 

Sylvain Chavanel is a hugely talented time triallist but for many years back problems hampered his performances. Those were solved prior to the 2012 season and afterwards he immediately entered the world elite. This year his results have been more low-key but he still managed to crush the opposition at both the 3 Days of De Panne and the French time trial championships. He appears to be in splendid condition at the moment and he will be eager to prove himself worthy of his tricolore jersey.

 

Richie Porte is the big dark horse for the time trial. No one can doubt the Sky rider's current form and while he may have lost a little bit of time trialling ability in his quest to improve as a climber, he is still a formidable time triallist. If he was still in the GC mix, he would have been guaranteed to be  at the very pointy end of tomorrow's stage. That is no longer a certainty. Sky learnt a lesson the other day and will no longer spend any unnecessary energy. That could see Porte take it easy tomorrow. On the other hand, he is a fierce competitor and would love to prove to the world that he is still very much in the race. He write on his blog on Cyclingnews that he would like to perform well to increase his motivation. If he is allowed to go full gas, he could make a beautiful performance.

 

Usually, we would also have mentioned Lieuwe Westra as one of our favourites but the Dutchman has been far from his best and is apparently still suffering from his Dauphiné crash. At the same time, he was in today's breakaway which suggests that he has not too many ambitions either. On the other hand, David Millar has not ridden a good time trial for some time and he were about to rule him out from ever performing at the top level again. However, he has been immensely strong in the first part of the race - most recently today - and if he is to ever find back to his former level, it has to be in tomorrow's time trial.

 

Among the GC favourites, Froome is the only to really excel as a time triallist and for his rivals it will be all about limiting their losses. During his pre-suspension career, Alberto Contador was a rider to gain time in the time trials and he famously beat Fabian Cancellara on a mostly flat course at the end of the 2009 Tour de France. Having returned from his ban, he started off splendidly in the Eneco Tour and the Vuelta but since then his time trial performances have been a far cry from what we have seen from him in the past. At the Dauphiné, he simply rode terribly and while he may have suffered from allergy on that occasion, those struggles cannot explain his woes on numerous other occasions. As his performances in the mountain stages have also been rather disappointing, we would not be surprised by another lacklustre performance from Contador.

 

Like Contador, Alejnadeo Valverde has also had troubles in time trial in his post-suspension career and the flat course offers him few favours. He can hope that his current fitness level will allow him to limit his losses but he will certainly lose another chunk of time tomorrow. Joaquim Rodriguez has famously struggled in the time trials in the past but has done a tremendous work to improve in the discipline. The results are there to prove that those efforts have not been in vain but nonetheless, he will finish far behind Froome tomorrow.

 

Nairo Quintana is no bad time triallist but the flat course does not suit him at all. He may excel in the hilly second individual stage but for now it will all be about limiting his losses. The stage will also give the first gauge of which version of Cadel Evans is the right one: the one who suffered on Saturday or the one that bounced back strongly on Sunday. Earlier in his career he was a strong time triallist but in recent years he has not been able to reproduce his best performances. We doubt that he will make it into the top 10 but if he is to seriously hope for a top 5 on GC, he cannot allow himself to be too far off.

 

Finally, Andy Schleck's form is clearly on the rise and we expect him to be one of the very best climbers when the race hits the Alps. However, he is unlikely to have devoted much time to his time trialling during his annus horribilis and he is likely to lose plenty of time tomorrow.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Tony Martin, Chris Froome, Jonathan Castroviejo

Outsiders: Svein Tuft, Michal Kwiatkowski, Sylvain Chavanel

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