Today’s hilly finale created an extremely exciting bike race with lots of attacks and constantly changing scenarios, and more is in store when the race continues with a very similar stage. However, easier climbs will give the sprinters a better chance but before the fast finishers will get their chance they need to control what will be a very aggressive and animated stage.

 

The course

The second week has a few hilly stages that could both be won by a strong sprinter or a brave escapee. For the second day in a row, the riders face such a stage when they travel 185.5km from Bourg-en-Bresse to Saint-Étienne as they continue their southerly journey by travelling a bit in a westerly direction to get a little farther away from the Aps and briefly touch Massif Central.

 

The stage is pretty similar to the previous one as the first part is almost completely flat, with the early intermediate sprint being the highlight. It is both pretty technical with several turns and slightly uphill, averaging 1% for the final 2km and being slightly steeper near the line. After the sprint, the terrain gets slightly hillier, with the Col de Brouilly (category 4, 1.7km, 5.1%) and Cote de Saule d’Dingt (category 3, 3.8km, 4.5%) being the first challenges of the day.

 

An easier section leads to the finale which kicks off with the long Col des Brosses (category 3, 15.3km, 3.3%) which is not very steep. A descent brings the riders to the bottom of the Cote de Grammond (category 4, 9.8km, 2.9%) which is pretty similar to the previous climb. Summiting 21.5km from the finish, the climb is followed by a short uphill stretch and then a long descent to the final 8.5km that are completely flat. The finale is pretty easy as the final major turn comes 1500m from the line and then the road only bends slightly to the right and left before the riders get onto the 320m finishing straight. The final kilometre is uphill with a 1.2% average gradient.

 

Saint-Étienne has often hosted stage finishes of the major French races, most recently in 2009 when Niki Terpstra and Christian Vande Velde won stages in the Dauphiné and Paris-Nice respectively. One year earlier Marcus Burghardt won a Tour de France stage here while Kjell Carlström, Christophe Moreau, Tom Boonen and Patxi Vila are all among the latest riders to have won in the city, proving that a lot of different riders can excel in this terrain. In 2005, Lance Armstrong sealed his seventh Tour de France victory by winning the final time trial of that year’s Tour de France here.

 

 

 

 

The weather

For the first time in this year’s race, the riders rode in hot conditions when they travelled to Oyonnax earlier today. The heat does plan to give way for rain and cold yet and so tomorrow should be another brutally hot day in the saddle.

 

Bright sunshine is forecasted for the entire stage and the temperature will reach a maximum of a sweltering 34 degrees in the second half of the stage and it will only be slightly cooler on the top of the late climbs.

 

There will be a light easterly wind which means that the riders will first have a tailwind until the intermediate sprint and then a crosswind almost all the way to the finish in Saint-Etienne. In the finale, there is a short tailwind section that but the final 4km will mostly be raced with a crosswind from the left.

 

The favourites

Tomorrow’s stage is very similar to today’s stage 11. Again the first part is pretty easy and all the major climbing is located in the second half. Like today, the final third of the race has virtually no flats and only the final few kilometres to the finish are not either up- or downhill.

 

However, there are a few differences as well. Most notably, the final climbs are a lot easier than the short, steep ascents that littered today’s finale. The two late climbs may both be very long but they are not very steep. Only the first of those two ascents has some steeper gradients near the top but the climbs will be a lot more manageable for most of the riders.

 

This opens the door for a much wider range of riders. More sprinters will fancy their chances of making it over those climbs with the best and this suggests that the race could be more controlled. On the other hand, more attackers feel that they have a chance to finish off a breakaway in successful manner and this means that a lot of riders will be keen to ride aggressively.

 

For riders that are not climbers, sprinters or TT specialists, this may be the final chance to win a stage and so we can again expect the start to be extremely fast. Today the riders rode at more than 50kph before the break finally took off and we should be in for a similar scenario tomorrow. Most of the teams have made a pre-race plan to attack and almost all teams have been told not to miss out if a big group gets clear.

 

Today the break got clear surprisingly early and was surprisingly small which suited Cannondale and Orica-GreenEDGE perfectly. In the end, the finale proved to be too hard to control but the first part of the stage panned out just as they had hoped.

 

They may not have the same kind of luck tomorrow but there is no doubt that stage 12 is a big goal for both teams. For Sagan, it may be his final big chance to take a stage win as the remaining non-mountain stages are more suitable to the pure sprinters. For Orica-GreenEDGE which have no sprinters or climbers on their roster, this is the final real chance as well.

 

However, both teams spent a lot of energy in today’s stage and especially Cannondale went really deep in the finale. It will be hard for those teams to control another very fast start and both teams will probably take part in the attacks.

 

Furthermore, Orica-GreenEDGE may prefer to change tactics. Tomorrow more sprinters may make the selection which makes it less likely that Simon Gerrans will win a sprint. It may be a better chance for them to send riders like Michael Albasini, Gerrans, Simon Clarke or Jens Keukeleire up the road and they may go into the race with a completely different game plan.

 

On the other hand, John Degenkolb is apparently back to his best after his muscle injury. Tomorrow’s stage was one of his big pre-race goals and if he again feels up to the challenge, Giant-Shimano will definitely do their part of the work. They may not be strong enough to control the peloton in the hilly finale but if they can do their work on the flats, Cannondale and Orica-GreenEDGE may take over by the time the terrain gets a bit hillier.

 

Katusha and Alexander Kristoff may also come into play. The Russian team is here to win a stage and the mountains jersey and on the rest day, the Norwegian claimed that their best stage winning opportunity would be in the sprints. However, he is unlikely to beat Kittel and Greipel in the pure sprints and so his best chance may come tomorrow. So far Katusha has done no chasing but tomorrow it may be their time to take some responsibility.

 

Most teams will likely go into the stage with an open mind and nothing will be guaranteed before the break has taken off. If a big group with the major sprint teams gets clear, it will probably stay away. If the group is a smaller one, the sprint teams will bring it back together for the finale and they may get some help from the teams that have missed the move.

 

If the break stays clear, it will all come down to a battle between the escapees on the final climbs but the strongest rider won’t necessarily prevail on these pretty easy ascents. Instead, tactics will play a very big role. If the peloton brings things back together, we are likely to see late attacks but it will be a lot easier for teams like Cannondale and Orica to control the finale. Orica will definitely try to make the race hard but we should see no repeat of today’s uncontrollable finale. This also means that Sagan is unlikely to be isolated and so he doesn’t need to ride aggressively as he did in stages 7 and 11 but can allow himself to save energy for the final sprint.

 

With Giant-Shimano also thrown into the mix, we will put our money on a sprint finish. In that case, John Degenkolb will be the man to beat. Going into this race, the German was our favourite for stages 11 and 12 but the muscle injury he suffered in stage 5 set him back. Yesterday he said that he needed a miracle to be competitive but apparently the rest day had a better impact than expected as he finished second in today’s stage.

 

Degenkolb was pleasantly surprised by the result and made it clear that he aimed high at tomorrow’s stage as well. With a hilly finale, it suits him down to the ground as he is a much better climber than most of the sprinters. Furthermore, he excels in sprints at the end of hard races as he proved when he finished second in Paris-Roubaix and won Gent-Wevelgem, Paris-Tours and Vattenfall Cyclassics.

 

Degenkolb has sprinting really well all year and was clearly faster than Mark Cavendish in the Tour of California. His main problem has often been positioning but in a smaller group that will be less of a disadvantage. Furthermore, he can expect to have Koen De Kort and Tom Dumoulin at his side in the finale which will provide him with much better support than most of his rivals. Of course his injury raises several questions and he may not feel as good as he did today. With his return to form, however, he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rivals in a sprint finish could be Alexander Kristoff. The Norwegian has been suffering from stomach problems but is now back at full strength. Today he didn’t even try to follow the best but afterwards he regretted his decision to save energy. Tomorrow he will definitely give it a try in a stage that suits him perfectly.

 

Kristoff has been climbing extremely well in this race and it would be a huge surprise if he fails to keep up with the best. Furthermore, he is very fast at the end of a hard race as he has proved in most of the biggest classics where he has often won the sprint of the first bigger group. With Luca Paolini and Gatis Smukulis at his side, he will have decent support in the finale and he handles the positioning really well. Tomorrow is definitely Kristoff’s best chance to win a stage in this race.

 

Today Peter Sagan was again left frustrated as he again failed to stay calm in the finale. Instead of focusing on a sprint, he panicked and started to follow attacks which left him with little strength for the sprint. As said, tomorrow’s finale will be much easier to control and he should be able to save himself for the final dash to the line.

 

However, Sagan has not been sprinting very well this year and honestly we don’t think that he has the speed to beat the likes of Degenkolb and Kristoff. On the other hand, no one is better at positioning than the Slovakian and it may not all come down to pure speed. If Sagan handles the finale way, tomorrow could be the day when he finally takes that elusive stage win.

 

Bryan Coquard is a much better climber than most of the sprinters and he doesn’t seem to be fatigued yet. Today he finished in the second big group, just 1.36 behind stage winner Tony Gallopin, and he should definitely be there in the finale. Coquard has been sprinting really well in this race and most importantly, he has been much better at positioning himself than usual. If Coquard gets a clear run to the line and doesn’t have to start too far back, he definitely has a chance to win.

 

André Greipel definitely can’t be ruled out in this kind of stage. The big German is a solid climber and has overcome pretty tough climbs in the past. Two days ago he did a massive job for Gallopin in much harder terrain and he seems to be riding really well at the moment. Today he didn’t even try to keep up with the best but tomorrow he will definitely give it a go. If he is there in the end, he will obviously be the fastest rider.

 

If a break stays away, there are several good candidates but due to the flat start it is a bit of a lottery to make the right move. However, Greg Van Avermaet seems to be riding better than ever before and he appears to be at ease on the climbs. As a classics specialist he knows how to ride hard on the flats and like today he will definitely try to join the breaks. With faster sprinters in the finale, he knows that he is unlikely to win a sprint but if he makes it into the break he could easily be the fastest rider.

 

On the rest day, Sep Vanmarcke said that he targeted the transitional stages and tomorrow’s stage suits the Belgian down to the ground. Usually not known for his climbing skills, he has been climbing extremely well in this race. Today he finished in the gruppetto and may have decided to save energy for today’s stage. The finale should be manageable for Vanmarcke who has a very fast sprint to finish it off.

 

Kevin Reza has mostly been working as a lead-out man for Coquard in this race but tomorrow it may be his time to go on the attack. The Europcar rider is climbing better than ever before and today he made it into the front group before sprinting to 10th. He has a decent sprint and will be hard to drop on the climbs. If he joins the break, he may take Europcar’s first stage victory in this race.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Julien Simon crashed in stage 1 and suffered in the first few stages but now he is back at his best level. Today he almost made it into the first group and tomorrow’s stage suits him even better. Simon is fast in a sprint but knows that he won’t beat the real sprinters in a bunch kick. Instead, he will try to go on the attack and if he makes it into the break he will be one of the favourites.

 

Movistar have their eyes firmly fixed on Alejandro Valverde but they are not afraid of going on the attack. This stage suits Giovanni Visconti down to the ground as he excels in this hilly terrain and has a very fast sprint. His main objective will be to keep Valverde safe but if he makes the right break, he will be a danger man.

 

Daniel Oss may be a big classics guy but he is actually a decent climber. Today he played a key role in chasing down the four-rider group in the finale which again underlined his excellent form. Tomorrow he may try to join the break and if he makes it, the hilly finale suits him well. He is both a strong rouleur and has a fast sprint which makes him an obvious winner candidate.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: John Degenkolb

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: Bryan Coquard, André Greipel, Daniele Bennati, Greg Van Avermaet, Kevin Reza

Jokers: Julien Simon, Giovanni Visconti, Daniel Oss