Marcel Kittel’s stranglehold on the Tour de France sprints was broken today but a lot of sprinters are still empty-handed after six days of racing. Many have red-circled tomorrow’s stage as a great opportunity to go for glory on a day when only the strongest of the fastest finishers will survive.

 

The course

Before getting into the mountains, the riders continue their long southeasterly journey towards the Vosges with one of the longest stages of the entire race that brings them over 234.5km from Epernay to Nancy. While the distance will be a challenge, the terrain is very easy but after a long, flat day in the saddle the organizers have included a nasty sting in the tail.

 

From the start, the riders travel in a northeasterly direction until they reach Verdun, one of the famous battlegrounds of the First World War. From there, they continue in a southeasterly direction towards Nancy and contest a very straightforward flat intermediate sprint after 148km of racing.

 

Instead of continuing along the direct route to Nancy, however, the riders approach the city from a westerly direction to include two late category 4 climbs that will test the sprinters after a day that has otherwise been completely flat. The Cote de Maron (3.2km, 5%) comes just 17km from the finish while the Cote de Boufflers (1.3km, 7.9%) is located just 5.5km from the line. From there it is a gradual descent until the flamme rouge while the final kilometre is slightly uphill with an average gradient of 1%. After the final climb, there are a number of turns as the riders do five 90-degree corners inside the final 3km. The final one comes 900m from the line and then a very slight bend leads onto the 400m finishing straight in Nancy.

 

Nancy last hosted a stage finish in 2005 where a very rainy day saw a big crash happen in the final turn after Alexandre Vinokourov had made a late attack. Lorenzo Bernucci escaped the carnage and won the stage ahead of the Kazakh while Robert Förster claimed third in the sprint. In 2009, Nancy hosted the prologue of the Dauphiné where Cadel Evans got an important confidence boost by beating Alberto Contador.

 

 

 

 

The weather

For the second day in a row, the rainy conditions created carnage in the peloton and unfortunately, the riders again risk having to do parts of tomorrow’s stage on wet roads. Even though the most likely outcome is that it will stay dry all day, there is a risk of showers that will make the roads very slippery. In any case, it will be another cloudy day in France, with the temperature in Nancy reaching a maximum of 20 degrees.

 

Today the wind proved to be a challenge for the riders and tomorrow they will again have to stay on their toes. There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction which will become stronger as the day goes on and turn into a westerly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind, then a tailwind and finally a tailwind for most of the finale, importantly up both the final two climbs. The many turns inside the final 5km mean that the riders will have several different wind direction as they approach the finish but on the finishing straight they will have a crosswind from the right.

 

The favourites

Going into the race, several sprinters knew that it would be hard to beat the trio of Marcel Kittel, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish and even though Cavendish is out of the race, the German duo have proved to be very hard to beat in the pure bunch sprints. Hence, many of the fast guys have red-circled tomorrow’s stage as a perfect opportunity to take the elusive stage victory and the stage is definitely one of the most important ones for riders like Peter Sagan and Alexander Kristoff.

 

At 234.5km, the stage is a very long one and requires a big amount of work to keep the break under control throughout the day but there is little doubt that Katusha and Cannondale are up for the challenge. Both teams are mostly here for stage wins with their sprinters, meaning that they can allow themselves to spend quite a bit of energy in tomorrow’s stage. Hence, it will be pretty hard for a breakaway to make it to the finish.

 

Nonetheless, we can expect a bigger fight in the early part of the stage than we have seen in most of the previous stages. The tricky finale means that more attackers fancy their chances and Cannondale and Katusha have to be on their toes right from the start of the stage. Due to the length of the stage, it is very important for them that the early break is neither too strong nor too big and they need to do a lot of work in the early part of the stage to control things.

 

In the end, a small group is likely to get clear and from there, we expect Cannondale and Katusha to start to chase. With a tailwind, a breakaway has a bigger chance and so they will probably not allow the break much room. We can expect Ted King, Jean-Marc Marino, Vladimir Isaychev and Gatis Smukulis to spend quite a bit of time on the front of the peloton for most of the day.

 

They may even get a bit of assistance from Orica-GreenEDGE. The Australian team is here to chase stage wins and they have marked out the hilly stages as their best opportunities. There is no doubt that tomorrow’s stage is one of their highlights and if things get out of control, they may lend a hand.

 

Again the windy conditions will make things very nervous and if rain starts to fall, the tension will increase even more. This will only facilitate the chase and like today there is a chance that some teams will try to make a move. The wind is unlikely to be strong enough to split things dramatically but there is a risk that the likes of Thibaut Pinot, Pierre Rolland and Mikel Nieve who all lost time today and are very poor in windy conditions, may be caught out again.

 

Going into the final climbs, it will be all about putting the pure sprinters under pressure and we can expect  Cannondale to go full gas on both climbs. A few riders like Thomas Voeckler and Sylvan Chavanel may have plans to attack in the finale but it will be very hard to get away. Marco Marcato and Alessandro De Marchi have both been riding excellently so far, providing Peter Sagan with more support than he usually has and they can do some serious damage. The sprinters will have to dig very deep to stay in contention and it will be made even harder by the tailwind which will only make for faster speeds.

 

As both the early and late breaks are unlikely to make it against a determined Cannondale team, we expect it all to come down to a sprint finish in Nancy. The main question is how many sprinters will be left at that point of the race.

 

Alexander Kristoff has been climbing extremely well in this race and in stage 2 he impressed the entire cycling world by finishing less than a minute behind the GC riders on a much harder course. Tomorrow’s climbing is a lot easier than it was last Sunday and there is no doubt that the Norwegian will make it over the two ascents with the peloton.

 

Kristoff has not only been climbing really well, he has also been sprinting excellently. He has already taken two second places in pure bunch sprints that didn’t suit him at all and at the moment he seems to be one of the fastest riders in the bunch.

 

As tomorrow’s stage is very long and the finale is very hard, tomorrow’s sprint will come at the end of a very tough day of racing. That’s where Kristoff really excels. In 2013, he won the bunch sprints for the minor places in Milan-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix and this year he took a hugely dominant win in Sanremo. At the end of a hard day in the saddle, not many riders are faster than Kristoff who is currently in excellent condition. Furthermore, he is great in the fight for position and so he is unlikely to miss completely out. In our opinion, Kristoff is the favourite to win tomorrow’s stage.

 

His biggest rival is obviously Peter Sagan who will do his utmost to make this race as hard as possible. There is no doubt that the Slovakian will make it over the climbs with the best and he is obviously one of the big favourites. However, we have not been very impressed by his performances so far and this has just continued a poor run of form that has lasted all season.

 

In the classics, Sagan was not his usual self and in the Tour, he has not been at his past level either. It was pretty disappointing to see him get dropped by the likes of Nibali and Fuglsang on the cobbles and he has not been sprinting very well. Due to his big class, he has been in the top 5 in all stages but he has been riding the sprints very conservatively as he knows that he will never win the pure bunch sprints. In stage 2, he was beaten by Greg Van Avermaet and Michal Kwiatkowski who should usually have no chance against him. On paper, however, he is one of the fastest riders that can survive this kind of climbing but we doubt that he will be able to beat Kristoff in a sprint.

 

Bryan Coquard has had an excellent Tour de France debut and this stage is a great opportunity for the tiny Frenchman. In last year’s GP de Quebec, he proved that he is very strong in long, hilly races and this year he even tried his hand in the Ardennes classics. This stage is a lot easier than those races and he definitely has a big chance of making it over the late climbs with the best.

 

He is riding his first grand tour and it remains to be seen how well he recovers but on paper he should be there in the finale. In this race, he has been able to overcome his poor positioning and has posted some great results. He is faster than both Kristoff and Sagan and if he gets a clear run to the line, they will have a hard time beating the Tour de France debutant.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have definitely made this stage a big goal and they have several cards to play. Simon Gerrans, Jens Keukeleire and Michael Albasini all excel in this kind of sprints at the end of long, hilly races and the main problem for the team will be to find out which rider to focus on. If Simon Gerrans has recovered from his stage 1 crash, there is no doubt that he will be their protected rider. The Australian champion has been taking it easy for the last few days but doesn’t seem to be too badly affected by his injuries. Last year he proved his speed when he beat Sagan in the sprint on stage 3 and in the past he has won bunch sprints at the end of hard races. This stage looks like a good one for Gerrans and if he is back at 100%, he definitely has a chance.

 

The same can be said for Matteo Trentin who is likely to be the sprinter on the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team. The Italian excels in sprints at the end of hilly races and his performance in the cobbles stage proves that he is currently in excellent condition. In the Tour de Suisse, he won a stage after having been given the perfect lead-out by Tony Martin and in this race he can expect to have the likes of Michal Golas, Jan Bakelants, Martin and Michal Kwiatkowski at his side. If they manage to position him well, Trentin definitely has a big chance.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas is mainly here to support Alejandro Valverde but he gets the chance to mix it up in the sprints if his captain is safe. Tomorrow could be a good chance for the Spaniard who is a great climber and will have no trouble getting over the hills. He went down a few times yesterday but should be okay. It will be hard for him to beat the likes of Sagan and Kristoff but a top 3result is definitely within his reach.

 

Heinrich Haussler is riding really well at the moment and the IAM rider should excel in this kind of stage. Today he didn’t seem to be too impacted by his crashes in yesterday’s stage and he definitely has the speed to win this kind of sprint. The main challenge will be to position himself well but if he is there at the finish, he could be danger man.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. If Gerrans is not up for the challenge, Orica-GreenEDGE is likely to give Michael Albasini his chance. The Swiss is pretty strong in these sprints and his performance in stage 2 proves that he riding excellently well at the moment. In the Tour de Romandie, he won a bunch sprint from a reduced peloton and even though things have to go right for him to beat the likes of Sagan and Kristoff, you can never rule out Albasini.

 

Today André Greipel took his first stage win and tomorrow he has a chance to make it two in a row. The final climbs may be a bit too hard for him but Greipel is actually a pretty strong climber. He seems to be riding really well at the moment, and his poor results have more been caused by poor positioning than bad legs. It will be hard for him to get back into position for the sprint but if he is there, he is definitely the fastest rider.

 

If Greipel is not up for the challenge, Lotto Belisol will probably give Jurgen Roelandts or Tony Gallopin their chance. If the former is there, he will be the protected sprinter and this climbing should not be too hard for him. After all he is a great classics rider and even though he is no longer as fast as he once was, he is still a very capable sprinter.

 

Finally, no one can completely rule out Marcel Kittel. In 2014 the big German has been climbing better than ever and there is a chance that he will make it to the top with the best. Going into the race, this stage was one for John Degenkolb but as he is suffering from an injury, Kittel will do his very best to make it. Today he was clearly not riding very well and ran out of legs in the finale so we doubt that he will be there at the end but if he makes it, he will obviously be the man to beat.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alexander Kristoff

Other winner candidates: Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard

Outsiders: Simon Gerrans, Matteo Trentin, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Heinrich Haussler

Jokers: Samuel Dumoulin, Michael Albasini, André Greipel, Jurgen Roelandts, Marcel Kittel