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Starting at 14.00 you can follow the hilly stage to Albi on CyclingQuotes.com/live

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TOUR DE FRANCE

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05.07.2013 @ 14:00 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The sprinters excelled in today's flat, windy stage to Montpellier but they will have to dig much deeper if they once again want to show off their fast finish in tomorrow's seventh stage to Albi. Four categorized climbs and constant ups and downs will do its fair share of damage on their legs and it is not at all a given thing that all the sprinters will be present in what should be a sprint finish late in the afternoon. Starting at 14.00 you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The GC riders only have one more stage to survive until the Pyrenees should produce a natural selection and put an end to the prevailing nervousness. It is another long one, bringing the riders to Albi just North of the mountains, and that city is known for its hilly terrain. Stages finishing in Albi are mostly won by escapees and that could once again be the case. A flat start leads the riders to the stage's toughest section which consists of the category 3 Col des 13 Vents (6,9km, 5,9%) and the category 2 Col de la Croix de Mounis (6,7km, 6,5%).

 

From the top of the latter, 111km of undulating but mostly descending roads remain and the category 3 Cote de la Quintaine (6,5km, 4%) and Cote de Teillet (2,6km, 5%) which will be tackled along the way, are not overly difficult.  The final 34,5km are almost all downhill and leads to a non-technical and fast finish. Having exited a roundabout at the 2,5km mark, the riders will travel along an almost completely straight and flat road with just a very slight bend just ahead of the flamme rouge, thus being offered the perfect opportunity for another high-speed sprint.

 

Today's stage was heavily influenced by the strong Mistral wind that made for some very nervous racing. The riders will be happy to see that tomorrow will only offer very little wind which should be against the riders for almost the entire stage. The sprinters will have to deal with a cross-headwind on the finishing straight, thus making timing, positioning and patience that little bit more important. Like today's stage, the race will be held in hot conditions and beautiful sunshine, and the temperatures should stay between 25 and 30 degrees for most of the day. Combined with the many climbs, it should be a tough day in the saddle.

 

History shows that escapees often prevail in Albi and that should inspire a number of riders to go on the attack. The hilly nature of the course makes it difficult to control and we could very well see a change to the script that has seen the early breakaway go clear already from the gun. However, the start is not overly difficult and the sprint teams should be able to make sure that the day's move has the preferred size and composition.

 

Despite the hilly nature, the breakaway is unlikely to make it to the finish. Too many teams will be interested in a bunch sprint to realistically make it happen and it will require a very strong break to keep the peloton at bay.

 

The peloton almost made a miscalculation in stage 5 when they allowed a strong 6-rider break to gain almost 13 minutes before they started to chase, and they won't make a similar mistake tomorrow. Knowing that they have to ride up the climbs at a modest pace to not put their sprinters into trouble, they will never allow the breakaway to get too far ahead.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step always chase when Cavendish has just the slightest chance of winning and so they are very likely to play a main role tomorrow. The same goes for Lotto-Belisol as the loss of Jurgen Van Den Broeck means that the Belgian team does not have to hold anything back for the Pyrenees. The combined forces of those two teams should be enough to keep it all together. Argos-Shimano may be a little uncertain over Kittel's chances but as they are also eager to show John Degenkolb some trust, they are likely to contribute to the chase.

 

The final two climbs are rather easy and should do nothing to trouble Andre Greipel and Mark Cavendish who both climb rather well when they are on form and they had no problems handling similar challenges in yesterday's stage. The real danger for the sprinters are the first two climbs which are both rather tough. If they are raced at a high speed, both Cavendish and Greipel will be left behind.

 

However, few teams have any real interest in upping the pace on the ascents. The climbs are located too early to present any danger for the GC riders and so they will be happy to save some energy for the Pyrenees.

 

Instead, it will be up to Cannondale to apply the pressure as they want to drop the pure sprinters to allow Peter Sagan to take the win. However, the Italian squad does simply not have a team that is strong enough to sufficiently help their Slovakian captain. Moreno Moser, Alessandro De Marchi and Kristijan Koren should be strong enough to put the sprinters into difficulty but they are likely to leave behind most of their own team in the process. They will have limited resources to hold off the sprinters during the final 111km.

 

At the same time, the entire Omega Pharma-Quick Step team except Michal Kwiatkowski and Sylvain Chavanel are likely to wait for Cavendish, should he get dropped - and that includes world time trial champion Tony Martin. Due to Van Den Broeck's absence, Lotto can also afford to let its entire team wait for Greipel and against those two teams, Cannondale will have no chance.

 

What could make the difference is if one of the two sprinters survive the climbs while the other is left behind as that could see Cannondale get some help from one of the two sprint teams. That would, however, still put Sagan up against one of the faster finishers.

 

The final 113km should give the sprint teams plenty of time to get back on and catch the early breakaway and we should see a bunch sprint in the end.

 

Cavendish was given a perfect lead-out yesterday but today his team totally messed it up. Gert Steegmans had to make a long sprint to get Cavendish back into position just before the sprint but the team is likely to have learnt a lesson and will be keen to make amends for their failure. Riders like Tony Martin and Niki Terpstra should be able to position the train of Matteo Trentin, Steegmans and Cavendish well and while he may not be able to start the sprint from first position, he should be able to start the sprint from a much better position than he did today.

 

At the same time, the sprint appears to favour Cavendish more than today's. Cavendish's main strength is his aerodynamic sprinting style and he will be favoured by the headwind. That also makes timing that more important and the Brit is one of the best at reading a sprint perfectly. Hence, Cavendish should be the favourite tomorrow.

 

We have repeatedly claimed that Andre Greipel has the world's best lead-out train at his disposal but yesterday we were disappointed to see the team mess it up. Today they proved themselves worthy of our praise by producing a textbook lead-out that saw Greipel take a very convincing win.

 

We will expect the team to once again take control during the final 1,5km of tomorrow's stage and try to put their German sprinter into perfect position. However, it may not be completely as streamlined as it was today and that will make it a little more difficult for Greipel to come out triumphant.

 

First of all, the team could be forced to use up some energy to get Greipel back, should he get dropped on the early climbs. At the same time Jürgen Roelandts - usually the strongest climber in the train - suffers from back problems and fell off the pace yesterday. In his current condition he could be unable to overcome the late climbs and that will leave a gap in the train between Marcel Sieberg and Greg Henderson. Yesterday, Sieberg was not fast enough to keep up with Trentin, thus forcing Henderson to make an early acceleration that saw Greipel lose his wheel. If Roelandts is not present at the finish, it will be much harder for the train to use its automatisms.

 

Marcel Kittel is usually one of the first sprinters to get dropped on the climbs but he has climbed splendidly so far. Yesterday he was positioned near the front of the peloton on the Col de la Gineste and had doubtlessly made it all the way to the finish, had he not been brought down in a crash.

 

The late climbs will be a tougher challenge for Kittel than they will for Cavendish and Greipel but at his current level, we think he has a solid chance of making it. The team is a likely to copy yesterday's plan and so work for Kittel if he survives the climbs and shift their attention to John Degenkolb, should it be too much for their fastest finisher.

 

The long power sprint should suit Kittel and in a pure sprint, he has the speed to beat both Cavendish and Greipel. However, he is likely to miss his final crucial lead-out man Tom Veelers who is almost guaranteed to be dropped on the climbs and he will feel the strains of the day more than Cavendish and Greipel. Hence, it will be more difficult for Kittel to bag his second win than it would have been today.

 

Should the sprinters get dropped, the sprint should be one for Sagan to win. The Slovakian missed the win in stage three due to the effects of his crash but his two most recent sprints have shown that he is on the mend.

 

He raced today's sprint with intelligence, knowing that he had no chance to win and so using Greipel's slipstream to take second. If he has to go up against the big sprinters, he is likely to use a similar tactic tomorrow but if the fastest riders are dropped, he should take the win. At the same time, he will benefit from the harder stage which should allow him to be more fresh than his rivals at the finish.

 

Alexander Kristoff is the rider that could deny Sagan another win, should the fast sprinters all be left behind. He climbs better than most of the fast men and could be there in the finale even if Cavendish and Greipel are dropped. He is very fast at the end of a hard race and should have a solid chance of beating Sagan.

 

Finally, we would like to point to Simon Gerrans as an outsider. Should the race be really tough, he could decide to mix it up in the sprint. He showed how fast he is when he won stage 3, and if Cavendish and Greipel are left behind, he could once again create a surprise.

 

Daryl Impey should have no problems defending his lead, the South African being a solid climber. He will probably still fill his role as lead-out man for Matt Goss - Gerrans or Brett Lancaster, should Goss be left behind - but will be wise enough to stay far enough ahead to avoid any surprise gaps.

 

We have little confidence in the chances of the early breakaway but we will give the names of some riders that could finish it off. Jan Bakelants has long pinpointed this stage as an objective as he would like to repeat his Tour de l'Avenir win in Albi but the Belgian is too close to the overall lead to be given much leeway.

 

Instead, we will name Sergey Lagutin as a potential escapee. The Uzbek climbed really strongly in the first part of the race but was unlucky to lose 10 minutes yesterday. He will be keen to take revenge. Euskaltel's Ion Izagirre had hoped to win the white jersey but lost time due to a crash in stage 3. He could try to make amends tomorrow as the peloton gets closer to the Pyrenees and the Basque Conutry.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff, Simon Gerrans

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