The GC riders have all tried to avoid crashes throughout the opening week of the Tour de France but tomorrow it is finally time to find out what who has what it takes to win this year's Tour. Two mighty Pyrenean mountains offer the perfect battle ground for the major race players to test each other out and for Chris Froome and Alberto Contador to get head-to-head for the first time in this year's race. Starting at 14.00 you can follow the drama on CyclingQuotes.com.
The GC riders have mostly bided their time until this point but stage 8 will show the first signs of who's hot and who's not in this year's Tour. The first 131km are dead-flat - only punctuated by a small category 4 climb early on - as the riders travel South from Castres to the foot of the Pyrenees. Then the road starts to gradually ascend and the climbing gets serious at the 150,7km mark. From then on, there will be no time to recover as the category HC Port de Pailheres (15,3km, 8%) and category 1 Ax 3 Domaines (7,8km, 8,2%) follow in quick succession with no flat valley roads in between.
The final of the stage is a copy of the 14th stage of the 2010 race when Christophe Riblon rode away from an early breakaway to take the first of three consecutive French stage wins while Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck almost had a track sprint match on the final climb which allowed Samuel Sanchez and Denis Menchov to slip up the road.
The Pailheres is the harder of the climbs and is a regular one with no time to recover. The Ax-3-Domaines is short and most difficult in its lower part while the KOM points will be handed out 1,5km from the finish as the final stretch is almost completely flat. The riders will negotiate a hairpin bend just before the flamme rouge and a 90-degree left hand corner 250m from the finish line.
The riders will have to overcome not only the climbs but also more of the exhausting heat that has plagued the peloton throughout the opening part of the race. Beautiful sunshine should allow the temperatures to reach the 30-degree mark on the flat run towards the Pyrenees. It should be a little more bearable on the top of the climbs where 20 degrees are expected but there is no doubt that the heat will only make the race even harder. There should only be a very light tailwind throughout most of the day which should turn to a cross-headwind on the Pailheres and a tailwind on the final climb.
The first summit finish in a grand tour is often raced much differently that stages later in the race when a hierarchy has been established and fatigue has started to set in. First of all, they are usually raced a lot more conservatively, the main riders being unwilling to risk too much and show all their cards this early in the race. Secondly, an early escape has very little chance of making it all the way to the line as many riders still believe that they have a chance of coming out triumphant from a fight among the best. During the 5 most recent editions of the race, only the 2009 edition saw an escape finish off the work in the first summit finish when Astana allowed Brice Feillu to win the stage and Rinaldo Nocentini to take the yellow jersey in Andorra.
In a similar fashion it is very unlikely that the early breakaway will make it tomorrow. We should see the usual chess came early on where Sky won't allow Saxo-Tinkoff to get anywhere while the Danish team will keep the British squad under control. Instead, we will see some of the smaller teams put riders into the early break which is unlikely to be very big as the flat opening stretch is rather easy to control. Euskaltel will do their utmost to enter the move as the many Basque fans expect to see their heroes on the offensive while Blel Kadri will also be eager to defend his mountains jersey. It is only a question whether Europcar will allow him to get anywhere.
Orica-GreenEdge press officer Brian Nygaard told Danish TV2 that the Australian team will do almost nothing to defend the jersey and instead, we expect Team Sky to take control on the flat opening stretch. They may get a little help from Katusha and Movistar who could all fancy their chances of a stage win but will also be unwilling to offer Sky too much assistance. However, the British team should gladly assume its position on the front of the peloton and make sure that the break does not get too much of a buffer.
The real battle will start on the Pailheres and it will be interesting to see how the tactics play out. Sky has appeared to be surprisingly vulnerable in the early part of the race. Geraint Thomas suffers from a broken pelvis and usually reliable climbers like Kanstantsin Siutsou, Peter Kennaugh and David Lopez have appeared to be somewhat shy of their best. Ian Stannard is not a climber and despite his versatile talent, Edvald Boasson Hagen has evident limitations in the high mountains.
If Siutsou, Kennaugh and Lopez do not step up their game, it will be up to Vasil Kiryienka to do most of the work on the climbs. The Belarusian has shown on numerous occasions - most recently in the Tour of the Basque Country - that he can lead the peloton for endless of hours and he has appeared to race strongly throughout the opening part of the race. He was in the sprinters' group in today's stage, probably only to save his legs for tomorrow.
If Sky are not stronger than they have indicated on the early climbs in this year's race, Chris Froome and Richie Porte could be isolated rather early. Saxo-Tinkoff can obtain that objective in two ways: either they can make riders like Nicolas Roche, Roman Kreuziger or Michael Rogers attack on the Pailheres or they can use their strong team to take up the pace-setting themselves.
If Froome and Porte are isolated, it could force Porte to set the hard tempo on the Ax-3-Domaines climb. Froome definitely wants to race in his usual fashion and thus he will not allow the pace to go down. If he only has Porte left, he will put the Australian on the front. The end result could be that Porte loses some early time, thus taking away one of Sky's two GC options very early in the race.
If Froome is as strong as we expect, that will, however, also be the maximum achievable in tomorrow's stage. Porte should be strong enough to lead the peloton for most of the final climb and wear the front group down to no more than 10 riders and as soon as the Australian slows down, Froome is likely to set off.
As said, the race favourites often race the first mountain stage a little conservatively. We expect Froome to buck the trend. The Briton is of a very aggressive nature, having attacked in all summit finishes during the early part of the season, and he appears to be a little more nervous than more experienced GC contenders. He would like to get an early confirmation of his own condition by stamping his authority on the race early on.
The British race favourite appeared to be very strong in the team time trial and we honestly doubt that anyone can match him when he puts down the hammer. Alberto Contador will have to be back to his very best to not lose a little more time tomorrow and even if the duo should arrive at the flat finish for a sprint, Froome will be the faster of the two.
Like Froome, Contador is also an aggressive rider who always attacks in the first summit finish if he has the legs to do so. We expect him to race a little more conservatively tomorrow as he has indicated that he expects to make the difference later in the race. That could be a wise decision as Contador has proved on numerous occasions that he has an excellent recovery throughout a three-week race. Froome's grand tour palmares are far less impressive and Contador is likely to save his crucial attacks for later in the race.
Alejandro Valverde and Joaquin Rodriguez stand next in line as the favourites for the stage. Even if they are unable to match Froome, they could still win the stage. If Froome is unable to drop all his rivals, he will be unwilling to take them all the way to the top. That could allow dropped riders to get back on and both Spaniards are fast in a sprint. As the final kilometer is flat, Valverde will be the outstanding favourite, should he still be in contention at the top.
Cadel Evans has appeared to be racing very strongly throughout the first week and he seems to be not too far away from the rider that won the 2011 Tour de France. He may pay a price for his Giro participation but that is more likely to happen later in the race. The Australian has a fast finish and he should be able to beat all the race favourites in the flat sprint, Valverde of course being the major exception.
We are curious to see how Nairo Quintana handles the stage. The Colombian appears to have started the race much stronger than he did at last year's Vuelta but he has been unfortunate to crash three days in a row! We doubt that he has the level to match the best climbers in the race but he could benefit from a tactical battle. Valverde could play the Quintana card on the lower slopes of the final climb and the Colombian could prove himself strong enough to hold off his chasers. The same goes for his teammate Rui Costa.
Other riders that could also benefit from a similar scenario are Andy Schleck and Ryder Hesjedal. Schleck has been surprisingly strong in the early part of the race but the big favourites are unlikely to chase him down immediately. On the other hand, his own doubts could see him race the first mountain stage a little more cautiously to get a gauge of his current level.
We have done nothing to hide in our previews that we have big expectations for Ryder Hesjedal and until now, the lanky Canadian has done nothing to make us change our mind. He is of an aggressive nature and mostly underrated by his fellow GC riders which could allow him to go clear. What speaks against last year's Giro winner is the fact that he fractured a rib in stage 1 but until now, the injury has not appeared to bother him too much. An attacking strategy could also be applied by the always aggressive Thibaut Pinot who has impressed in the opening part of the race.
Finally, Daryl Impey has of course no chance of defending his yellow jersey. He climbs solidly on shorter ascents but big mountains are certainly not his forte. He will do his utmost to hang onto the front group as long as he can but we doubt that he will make it over the Pailheres. He may find some consolation in the fact that his successor is likely to be another African-born rider.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Joaquin Rodriguez
Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Ryder Hesjedal
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