The opening team time trial provided the GC riders with a chance to gain a few seconds and now it is time to go into survival mode. Even though the first three road stages include plenty of climbing, they are unlikely to make any differences between the best three riders and instead they will be the happy hunting ground for sprinters and classics specialists. With a very hard climb in the finale, stage 2 is definitely the hardest of the trio and it should turn out to be a very selective affair where only a small group is expected to be left to sprint it out in the end.

 

The course

The Tour de Romandie, Vuelta al Pais Vasco and Volta a Catalunya are all held in very hilly regions that give very little room for the pure sprinters. Instead, they offer plenty of opportunities for the fast riders who can survive some tough climbing and the in-form Ardennes specialists usually have lots of opportunities in a race that is loaded with climbs.

 

The second stage may be a bit too hard for that kind of riders but a fast sprint will be an important asset in the first road stage of the race which is a very tough affair with a significant amount of climbing. It brings the riders over 168.1km from Apples to Saint-Imier and is one full of ups and downs that leave little room for recovery.

 

The first part of the stage is the easiest as the first 45.4km only contain a small climb at the midpoint. Then the climbing gets serious when the riders hit the bottom of the category 2 Col des Etroits (11.5km, 4.8%, max. 9%) which is followed by a short descent as the riders continue in a northeasterly direction close to Lac de Neuchatel. A short flat section leads to the next challenge, the category 3 La Haute de la Cote (3.8km, 8.1%, max.10%) whose summit comes exactly at the halfway point. There will be no immediate descent as the riders stay on a plateau for a few kilometres and here they will contest the first intermediate sprint. A small climb leads to a long descent before a short flat section will bring the riders to the finish in Saint-Imier where they will cross the finish line after 117.9km of racing.

 

The final part of the stage is made up of a 50.2km finishing circuit which is a typical Romandie affair with lots of climbing. Right from the start, the riders will go up the category 2 Col les Pontins (4.0km, 8.6%, max. 11%) before they descend to a gradually downhill valley section. The main challenge of the day is the category 2 Col de Vue des Alpes (8km, 6.7%, max. 9%) whose summit is located just 17.2km from the finish. The first 12.5km are downhill and then the riders get to the final 4.7km which are mainly flat.

 

Saint-Imier has not hosted a stage in recent years.

 

 

The weather

The riders got the Tour de Romandie off to a very cold start but luckily they escaped the rain that has made the Swiss rain famous. They are set to get wet conditions later in the race but first they will enjoy what is likely to be the most pleasant day of the race. Wednesday is forecasted to be a cloudy day but there is a chance that the riders will catch a glimpse of the sun towards the end of the stage. With a temperature of 14 degrees, it will be significantly warmer than the cold opener.

 

There will barely be any wind and the light breeze will change direction during the stage. At the start, it will be blowing from an easterly direction but towards the end of the stage, the wind will come from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-headwind on their run to the finishing circuit. Here they will first have a cross-headwind before they turn into a crosswind at the bottom of the final climb. There will be a cross-tailwind on the descent and flat run-in to the finish.

 

The favourites

The 2015 Tour de Romandie can be split into two halves. While the two time trials and Saturday’s queen stage are expected to decide the overall winner of the race, stages 2, 3 and 4 should be chance for attackers and sprinters to take a stage win. They are all held on typical Romandie routes with lots of climbing but as they major difficulties all come pretty far from the finish, the GC riders are likely to keep their powder dry for the main challenges.

 

However, no one should underestimate the opening road stage which is a very tough affair and no one can rule out that the GC riders will test each other on the final climb. The stage has no less than 2579m of altitude and the climbing is pretty tough. All four categorized climbs are steep enough to do a lot of damage and could potentially be used to make a difference for the GC riders. However, the attacking will of course be saved for the final climb which is the only one within a reasonable distance from the finish.

 

Team Sky got the race off to a great start with a win in the team time trial and Chris Froome gained surprisingly much time on some of his key rivals in the opening test. In principle, he can now ride defensively until the final time trial where he is likely to be the best of the GC riders. However, he is still likely to try to win the queen stage but until then Sky will be keen to control the race and Froome will be happy to allow Geraint Thomas to enjoy some time as the overall leader.

 

In the first stage, small time gaps opened up and this means that there is a clear hierarchy in the race. Sky will have to do most of the work in tomorrow’s stage and they will take the responsibility. They may not get an awful lot of help as tomorrow’s stage is one of those with no obvious favourites and this means that it is not evident who’s going to ride on the front with the Brits.

 

That also means that many riders will be keen to go on the attack and we can expect the race to get off to a very fast start. It will probably take some time for the early break to be established but Sky will be keen to make sure that the group is neither too strong nor too big. With the easy start to the stage, that should be a manageable task and we don’t expect more than 5 riders to get clear after a fast start.

 

On paper it could be a good stage fir an early break but with the small time gaps from the team time trial, Sky won’t take any risks. They will make sure that the break will be brought back before the final climb and even though they don’t have the strongest climbing team for this race, they have lots of firepower for the flats. This means that they should be able to control the race and we expect it to be back together by the time the riders hit the final climb.

 

That ascent is a pretty tough affair and it would be a very bad idea to underestimate that kind of challenge. It is way too hard for sprinters like Luka Mezgec, Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani and as Giaani Meersman is not at 100%, the Belgian sprinter is unlikely to make it to the top with the best.

 

Sky would love to set a fast pace on the climb to keep Froome safe and everything under control but they may have a hard time doing so. Nicolas Roche was not at his best in the TTT after his crash in Liege and Peter Kennaugh is just coming back from injury. This could leave Froome and Thomas to represent the British team if the race turns out to be selective which could very well be the case. Many teams know that Sky are vulnerable and so we expect some very strong climbers to go on the attack.

 

Pierre Rolland is destined to attack at some point and Astana have so many cards to play that it would be wise to try to put Sky under pressure. Expect Rein Taaramae and Michele Scarponi to give it a go and they could be joined by some of the many Katusha and Cannondale-Garmin climbers.

 

As we expect some of the GC riders to be involved in the action, there will be an incentive from many teams to chase. This means that the most likely outcome is a sprint from a small group but in this kind of hard finale, there is a chance that a strong group can make it to the finish with an advantage of a few seconds.

 

As the stage is likely to be decided in a sprint from a small group, it will be interesting to see which fast riders can survive the final climb. It is a very tough affair and so we expect the stage to be very selective. It may even happen that the final group is made up almost exclusively of GC riders.

 

Julian Alaphilippe is not a GC rider as he can’t time trial and will find the queen stage too hard. However, the young Frenchman is in the form of his life and nothing suggests that he is slowing down. He finished 2nd in both Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Fleche Wallonne and in the former race he was really impressive. Despite being forced to chase back after having been caught up behind a crash and having gone on the attack in the finale, he still managed to close the gap to Valverde and Rodriguez before sprinting to second.

 

Alaphilippe has done a lot of racing and this stage may be too much for him after such a heavy racing burden. Furthermore, there is a risk that the final climb is a bit too long for him as he is no pure climber. However, the young Frenchman is riding so exceptionally well that we think it will be very hard to drop him. As the sprinters will all have been distanced, he is likely to be the fastest rider in the end and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

In case Alaphilippe doesn’t make it, Etixx-QuickStep still have a strong card to play. Rigoberto Uran has been agonizingly close to a few wins this year as he won sprints for second in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Volta a Catalunya. After a few seasons when he didn’t really showed his fast sprint, he has again made use of that weapon in 2015 and he will be keen to win a stage as he heads into the Giro d’Italia.

 

Uran is building condition for the Italian race and he is rarely climbing too well at this point. However, this stage should be manageable for him and if a select group arrives at the finish, there is a big chance that he will be the fastest.

 

Last year Michael Albasini won three stages in this race and he will be keen to continue his domination of his home race. In general, the stages suit him really well and this one could be a target for the in-form Swiss. In Pais Vasco and the Ardennes classics, he was riding even stronger than he was in 2014 and this suggests that he could be going into another great week in Romandie.

 

However, the final climb in this stage could be a bit too long for Albasini who usually struggles a bit on the long climbs. If the GC riders go full gas on this climb, there is a risk that he will get distanced. If he can make it over the climb, however, there is a big chance that he will be the fastest as he is even capable of winning small bunch sprints.

 

Sergey Chernetskii took a breakthrough win in the Volta a Catalunya when he emerged as the best from a breakaway and the Russian is a versatile rider who masters all disciplines. He is a good time triallist, a solid climber and has a sprint. This makes him perfectly suited to this stage where he can make use of most of his skills. The Russian can both go on the attack on the final climb but he may also save himself for the sprint. If a select group arrives at the finish and he can time things well, he could take a sprint win.

 

Damiano Caruso is building form for the Giro d’Italia where he will lead BMC. However, he would love to take a stage win in this race and tomorrow is his best chance. He is both a great climber and a very fast sprinter who is never afraid of testing himself even in small bunch kicks.

 

Daniel Martin had a disastrous Ardennes campaign and so he made a late decision to ride in Romandie. With the importance of the final time trial, he is unlikely to win the race overall and so his main goal will be to take a stage win. Everything suggested that he was in great condition for the classics but he never got the chance to show it. In this stage, he has a lot of chances as he can both go on the attack and wait for a sprint from a small group of favourites.

 

Diego Ulissi is finding his form after he came back from suspension and he hopes to be at his best for the Giro. He is clearly not at 100% yet but he is getting better and better. He would love to get a confidence boost by winning a stage in this race and this one may be his best chance. He won’t win a sprint from a bigger group later in the race but if he is strong enough to make it over the climb, he could be the fastest in a small group in this stage.

 

Simon Gerrans has had a disastrous year with lots of crashes. Now he has set his sights on the Giro d’Italia where he hopes to wear the pink jersey. Despite his limited amount of racing, he was pleasantly surprised by his condition in the Ardennes and this means that he may have a chance in this stage. On paper, the final climb is a bit too hard for him but if it turns out to be less selective, he may still be there and then he will be very hard to beat in a sprint.

 

Geraint Thomas took the leader’s jersey in the team time trial and he may even have a chance to make it two in a row. The Welshman looked impressive in the finale of today’s stage and he is clearly already in great condition. He is not a real sprinter but he has a decent kick in a sprint. His main concern will be to keep Froome safe and defend the leader’s jersey but he may try his hand in the end.

 

Finally we will select a few jokers. On paper this stage is way too hard for Gianni Meersman. However, the Belgian has been capable of doing some very impressive rides in the past and if he is at 100%, he may survive this climb. He didn’t look too strong earlier this month but now he may have had time to ride himself into a better condition. We don’t expect him to be a contender in this stage but if it turns out to be less selective he may have a chance.

 

Astana will be keen to go on the attack to try to put Sky under pressure and as said, a small group may have a chance. If that is the case, it may be a good idea to keep an eye on Rein Taaramae who looks very strong at the moment. The Estonian is one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton and if he gets a gap in the finale, he will be very hard to catch.

 

Simon Yates decided to do this race instead of leading his team in the Tour of Turkey and his main goal is to win a stage. He showed great condition in Pais Vasco and even though he was unable to back it up in the Ardennes, he still looks pretty strong. The Brit both knows how to attack and has a fast spirint and this makes him a contender for this stage.

 

Alexis Vuillermoz is one of the biggest climbing talents and he is currently in great condition. He finished 6th in Fleche Wallonne and his main goal in this race is to win a stage. He lost a lot of time in the team time trial and so he won’t be took heavily marked if he attacks in the finale. If he can make it into a small group in the end, he has a fast sprint to finish it off.

 

Pavel Kochetkov is getting stronger and stronger. On paper this stage should be too hard for him but he may have improved so much that he can handle the final climb. He is pretty fast in a sprint and so he may create a big surprise if it comes down to a sprint from a small group.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Julian Alaphilippe

Other winner candidates: Rigoberto Uran, Michael Albasini

Outsiders: Sergey Chernetskii, Damiano Caruso, Daniel Martin, Diego Ulissi, Simon Gerrans, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Gianni Meersman, Rein Taaramae, Simon Yates, Alexis Vuillermoz, Pavel Kochetkov