A strong surge by the Movistar team sent most of the sprinter out the back door in today’s stage of the Tour de Romandie and so there is only one opportunity left for the fast finishers in the Swiss race. Tomorrow’s penultimate road stage is the easiest of the race but still includes some tough climbing that will be a test for the riders who hope to sprint for the win in Fribourg.

 

The course

The weekend will be all about the GC and so every rider who is not a climber or a time triallist has to make the most of the lumpy stage 4 which is another typical Romandie stage. With a total of 1785m of climbing, it is a tough one with very little flat terrain but there are no big or very hard climbs which means that the typical Romandie sprinter will be licking his lips in anticipation.

 

The stage brings the riders over 169.8km from La Neuveville to Fribourg and starts with what is probably the easiest part of the entire race. Close to the Lac de Neuchatel, the organizers have found some of the only flat roads in the Romandy region and the first 60km of the race will have no topographical challenges as the riders travel in a southerly direction towards the finish in Fribourg. Then the terrain gets slightly hillier as the riders go up a small categorized climb before they again reach flat roads that lead them to the shores of Lac Leman close to Lausanne.

 

The riders now turn around to head in a northerly direction and this signals the start of the harder second part. First they go up an uncategorized climb before they descend to Chatel-St-Denis where they contest the first intermediate sprint at the 92.7km mark. Then it is time to tackle the category 2 climb Les Paccots (3.9km, 6.8%, max. 11%) whose summit comes with 72.8km to go. From here, they descend to a long rolling section that leads to the hilly finale.

 

The climbing resumes with 37.6km to go when the riders hit the bottom of the category 2 climb Sorens (4.4km, 4.1%, max. 10%) which is followed by a descent and a short flat section that contains the final intermediate sprint with 17.2km to go. Then it is time for the final challenge, the category 3 climb Treyvaux (3.8km, 3.7%, max. 8%) whose summit is located 12km from the finish. From there, the roads are gradually descending until the riders hit the final 4km which are mainly flat. The riders will go through several roundabouts in the finale, with the final one coming 900m from the finish. From there, the straight road is slightly descending at an average gradient of 1.2%.

 

Fribourg last hosted a stage last year when Michael Albasini took his third win in four days by beating Thomas Voeckler and Jan Bakelants in a sprint from a strong 3-rider breakaway. In 2010, Mark Cavendish beat Danilo Hondo and Robert Hunter in a bunch sprint while Ricardo Serrano beat Lars Bak and Gregory Rast in a 3-rider sprint in 2009. In 2008, the sprinters again had their chance and back then it was Robbie McEwen who beat Daniele Bennati and Matti Breschel in the bunch kick.

 

 

The weather

Despite a very bad weather forecast at the start of the race, the riders have managed to avoid the rain in the first half of the race. Tomorrow there is no mercy though as the riders can expect wet conditions for the entire stage. Furthermore, it won’t be very warm as the temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of only 12 degrees.

 

Importantly, it will also be a very windy day as there will be a strong wind from a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a strong headwind in the first part before they turn around as they enter the hills. From there, they will mainly have a tailwind but there will also be a few crosswind sections. On the final climbs, there will be a cross-tailwind and there will be a cross-tailwind during the run-in to the finish from the top of the final climb.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage was always going to be a tricky one for the sprinters as the climbs were all very hard. Nonetheless, they all hoped to survive the challenges and they would probably have done so if it hadn’t been for a strong acceleration by the Movistar team in the hardest part of the course. The purpose of that move was not clear as the Spanish team have no sprinter in the race but they managed to whittle the group significantly down and Luka Mezgec was the only real sprinter to make it into the group that sprinted for the win.

 

Stage 4 should be more of the same but this one is the easiest of the entire race. Again there are some tough climbs on the menu and they are even located a bit closer to the finish than they were in today’s stage. However, the final two climbs are significantly easier than the challenges in stage 3 and only the first climb has the potential to do some real damage. As the summit is located with 72.8km to go and followed by a flat section, it is less likely to create a big selection.

 

Traditionally breakaways have had a good chance in this race but so far there has been virtually no battle to be part of the early moves. Instead, the breaks have gone clear almost immediately which has made it pretty easy to control the race.

 

Tomorrow it will be very hard for the break to make it to the finish as a few teams have marked this one out as their big objective for this race. Giant-Alpecin and Trek are here with teams dedicated to sprinters and this one is both their biggest and only remaining chance. Hence, they will probably be very attentive in the early part of the race to make sure that the early break is not too strong or big. As the terrain is pretty easy and there will be a very strong headwind, we expect the break to get clear almost straight from the gun and it will probably be a rather small group.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE know that this could again be a good stage for Michael Albasini and so they will have to carry most of the responsibility. If the situation gets dangerous, Trek and Giant-Alpecin will be ready to step in and so the break will probably be held firmly under control in what should be a very slow start to the stage due to the strong headwind.

 

Things should heat up by the time we get to the category 2 climb where the terrain gets hillier and the riders turn into a cross-tailwind. This will make things a lot more nervous and now the sprinters have to dig deep to try to make the selection. The tailwind will make it harder for them but a strong team has to ride hard on the front to do some damage.

 

Today Movistar did some surprising work but they are unlikely to try again tomorrow. First of all the stage is much easier and secondly they want to save energy for Saturday’s queen stage. This means that a much bigger group should be able to crest the summit of the final climb. Orica-GreenEDGE may want to make the race hard but they don’t have the team to do so and to maintain a high speed in the next flat section.

 

The final two climbs are both pretty easy and we don’t expect them to pose too many problems for the sprinters. The main challenge may actually be posed by the wind and some of them could be tailed off after the climbs if the peloton splits in the wind at a point where they have drifted too far back. However, there will mainly be a tailwind and so we expect a pretty big group to sprint for the win in Fribourg.

 

Today we had backed Giacomo Nizzolo to win the stage but the climbing proved to be a bit too tough for the Italian. However, he was close to making it as he was one of the last riders to be tailed off on the first category 2 climb. Tomorrow he should have a much better chance as the climbing is easier and he is usually a pretty good climber.

 

Nizzolo has had a bad start to the year but he has gradually built some form. He arrives at this race after a solid block of altitude training and he impressed his teammates with his strength in the team time trial. Furthermore, he has a dedicated team to support him but the climbing may be a bit too tough for lead-out riders Eugenio Alafaci and Marco Coledan.

 

However, he will still be able to rely on riders like Boy Van Poppel and Fabio Silvestre who should both be able to make it to the finish with the best and this means that he may have the strongest lead-out. Furthermore, he is excellent at positioning himself and on paper, Elia Viviani is probably the only rider who is faster than him. This means that Nizzolo is again our favourite.

 

Today was a mixed day for Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian showed great condition by rejoining the peloton shortly after the top of the penultimate climb but he messed things up in the sprint. He was completely on his own in the finale and he never got into a position from which he could start his sprint. Hence, he had to settle for 9th in a stage where he should actually be the fastest.

 

With his good condition, there is little doubt that he will survive tomorrow’s climbing and he will be eager to make amends. On paper he is one of the fastest riders in this field and the downhill sprint suits him well. However, he doesn’t have much of a lead-out in this race. This is a big problem in these technical finishes. However, he is usually good at positioning himself and if he can make things better than he did today, he is one of the favourites.

 

Elia Viviani has had a solid start to his first year at Sky but in this race his main goal is to work for Chris Froome and get ready for the Giro d’Italia. However, he will still be given a chance in the final sprint if he makes the selection. Usually, this climbing should not be too tough for him and should be able to make it.

 

On paper, Viviani is the fastest rider in this race but he usually suffers a lot when it comes to positioning. On the other hand, Team Sky have a very strong lead-out train but they have different objectives in this race. They are unlikely to focus too much on Viviani but if they can bring him into a good position, he has the speed to win.

 

Michael Albasini has won 5 of the last 6 road stages in this race and tomorrow he can make the hattrick in the 2015 edition of the race. The Swiss is clearly in great condition and he even seems to be stronger than he was 12 months ago. However, this stage doesn’t suit him too well and there are several riders who are faster than him.

 

On paper, the downhill sprint doesn’t suit him but no one can rule the strong Swiss out. Today he showed great attentiveness and used his experience excellently to negotiate the tricky finale and he was in a class of his own when he launched his sprint. With Simon Gerrans as a support rider, he may again be in a great position for the final dash to the line and then he has the chance to win even this kind of sprint.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have done great in the finales of the first two sprint stage but Julian Alaphilippe has not had the speed to match Michael Albasini. Tomorrow’s easier terrain should make it possible for Gianni Meersman to survive the climbing and this means that they will turn their attention to the fast Belgian. He is not suited to this kind of downhill sprint but with Alaphilippe, Tony Martin and Rigoberto Uran at his side, a great lead-out may be enough to give him the win.

 

In the first two sprint stages, Cannondale-Garmin have been supporting Nathan Haas who is better suited to this kind of technical finales. Tomorrow the finishing straight is longer and slightly downhill and this should make it better for Ramunas Navarduaskas who has improved his sprinting a lot. Last year he even finished third in the final stage of the Tour de France and he clearly has the speed to be up there. He is usually not very good at positioning himself but if he can find the right wheel in the finale, a rare win for Cannondale is a possibility.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Tom Van Asbroeck is riding this race to improve his climbing for the Vuelta and he doesn’t expect to get a result. Tomorrow is his best chance though and he will do his utmost to survive the climbing. There is a big chance that it will be too tough for him but if he can make it to the finish with the best, he will be one of the fastest in this kind of sprint. As he is also good at positioning himself, he has the chance to open the LottoNL-Jumbo account.

 

Tosh van der Sande is Lotto-Soudal’s sprinter in this race but he has been unable to survive the climbing. However, he is usually very strong in this hilly terrain and tomorrow’s stage should not be too tough for him. In the Volta a Catalunya, he won a bunch sprint for fourth and even though he is not a pure sprinter, he has a decent turn of speed. With Greg Henderson at his side, he can rely on one of the best lead-out men in the world and this could make the difference.

 

Europcar don’t have a real sprinter in this race but in this kind of race Angelo Tulik may try his hand in the sprint finishes. The Frenchman mixed it up in the bunch sprints in the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon and he narrowly missed the podium on two occasions. He will be keen to build on that success and even though he is unlikely to win the stage, he may be capable of producing a small surprise.

 

If Cannondale still decide to give Nathan Haas a chance, the Australian will also be an outsider. He is not perfectly suited to this kind of high-speed downhill sprint and so we expect the roles to be reversed. However, if he gets the nod, he can rely on Navardauskas to lead him out and this could see him get close to the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Other winner candidates: Luka Mezgec, Elia Viviani

Outsiders: Michael Albasini, Gianni Meersman, Ramunas Navardauskas

Jokers: Tom Van Asbroeck, Tosh van der Sander, Angelo Tulik, Nathan Haas, Julian Alaphilippe