After the opening team time trial, the GC riders have been in survival mode but now it is finally time for them to show their cards. Despite the generally hilly profile of the race, the climbers only have one chance to make a difference, with tomorrow’s queen stage offering the big climbing showdown in the 6-day race. With bad weather and the toughest summit finish for years, the stage has the potential to do some damage and as everybody needs to gain time on Chris Froome before the final time trial, we can expect an aggressive and animated race.

 

The course

The Tour de Romandie usually has one big day of climbing in the Alps and this year the queen stage comes on the penultimate day. As usual, it is a big day with lots of big climbs but for the first time in years, the race ends at the top of a hard climb which will make it the most selective stage in recent editions. With a total of 3408m of climbing, it will be a brutal day and as the usual bad weather mars Romandy, it will be a tough stage that can make a lot of damage and will go a long way in determining the winner of the Tour de Romandie.

 

At 162.7km, the stage brings the riders from the Friday’s finish Fribourg to the top of the Champex-Lac climb. It consists of a long southerly run as the riders get into the Alpine heartland where they will mainly follow the valley road. However, they will make a few digressions from the direct line to go up a couple of big climbs along the way.

 

The first 50km of the stage are very easy as the riders travel along mainly flat roads to get into the Alpine terrain. The hostilities start at the 50.1km mark when the riders hit the bottom of the category 1 Les Mosses (13.7km, 4%, max. 9%) which is not a very hard climb and often features on the course. After the top, the riders go down a very long descent that brings them to the UCI headquarter in Aigle and the valley road in the Alps.

 

The riders will follow the flat road for a few kilometres before they get to the first intermediate sprint with 70km to go. This signals the start of the finale as the riders make a small deviation from the straight line to go up the category 1 Les Giettes climb (9.4km, 7.6%, max. 11%) before they turn around and go back to the valley road. Here they stay in the flat terrain for another 20km and contest the final intermediate sprint with 31.7km to go.

 

With 29.2km to go, the riders leave the valley and from now on there are no flat roads in the remaining part of the stage. First they go up the category 1 Petite Forclaz (5.1km, 9.8%, max. 13%) which is brutally steep and summits just 24.1km from the finish. Again they turn around to head back to the valley and then they head straight onto the lower slopes of the final category 1 climb to the finish in Champex-Lac (14.2km, 7%, max. 13%).

 

The final climb has not been used in recent editions of the Tour de Romandie.

 

 

The weather

The riders had horrendous weather for today’s stage and this made it a pretty tough affair. However, they will be glad to know that the rain is expected to stop during the night and that dry conditions are expected for the queen stage. That’s important as snow on the climbs could have forced the organizers to alter the course.

 

In the morning there may even be a bit of sun but in general it will be a cloudy day. It won’t be very cold as the maximum temperature in Verbier which is located at altitude close to the finish will be 10 degrees. There will only be a very light wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind as they speed down the valley road and a crosswind when they go up and down the second and third climbs. There will be a tailwind on the final climb.

 

The favourites

As expected, the first three road stages failed to produce any time gaps between the overall contenders who have all been waiting for the weekend to deal their rivals a blow. The last three days have been all about staying safe but the three hard stages will be felt in the riders’ legs when they head out on tomorrow’s ride through the Alps which offers the climbers their only chance to make a difference in this year’s race.

 

With four major climbs, this is a big day of climbing and the combinations of the final two climbs can do a lot of damage. The Petite Forclaz is very steep and even though the final ascent is not very tough, the fact that there is little room for recovery in between the two mountains means that it should be able to do create some solid time differences.

 

Today provided the riders with their first taste of the rainy conditions that usually characterize the Tour de Romandie but tomorrow it should be a lot better. However, there is still a risk of rain and so the organizers may be forced to alter the course. This preview is based on the assumption that the stage will go ahead as planned. In any case, the design of the course means that the organizers can easily skip a few climbs along the way and still maintain the finish at the top of the final climb without having to include any dangerous descents.

 

Due to his time gains in the opening team time trial, Chris Froome finds himself in a great position. Among the GC riders, he is clearly the best time triallist and in principle he can allow himself to ride defensively. However, that is not his racing style and there is no doubt that he will do his best to win this stage. In the past two years, he found himself in a similar situation but he still chose to ride aggressively, and unless he has bad legs, there is no reason to suggest that it will be any different tomorrow.

 

This also means that Sky will control this stage firmly. Mountain stages are always very aggressive and we should be in for a fast start with several attacks. Many of the major teams will be part of the action as they want to have riders up the road but due to the easy start, it will be a manageable task for Sky to make sure that the early break is not too strong. With the mountains jersey up for grabs, many riders will have an extra incentive to attack and Sky will probably have their work cut out for them in the early part of the race.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE may lead the race with Michael Albasini but they know that the in-form Swiss won’t be an overall contender. Hence, they won’t do much to defend their jersey and they will mainly focus on keeping Simon Yates and Ivan Santaromita safe. Hence, it will probably be left to Sky to chase the early break and they will gladly assume their position on the front of the peloton.

 

There is no doubt that the British team plan to apply their usual tactic of riding tempo on the front of the peloton but in this race they don’t have the strongest team of climbers. Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard, Elia Viviani and Danny Pate won’t be able to feature in the finale and Geraint Thomas are not at 100% after his injury. The team even lost Peter Kennaugh today and so it will mainly be left to Nicolas Roche to apply the pressure. This means that they will probably have to wait until the penultimate climb to really make the race hard and Froome will probably be isolated much earlier than usual.

 

They may get a bit of assistance from Movistar though. This is the big day for Nairo Quintana who lost surprisingly much time in the team time trial. The Colombian needs to attack in this stage and he is surrounded by a very strong team of climbers. It would be no surprise if Movistar join forces with Sky to make the race as hard as possible.

 

Many riders know that Froome’s team is not very strong and they definitely want to isolate the defending champion. They can achieve that goal in two ways. They may set a fast pace on the final two climbs or they may go on the attack. Astana have so many GC cards to play that they can really put the race leader under pressure and we feel pretty sure that they will go on the attack already on the penultimate climb. It would be no surprise to see Michele Scarponi take off on the hardest ascent of the race and he could get some company from Pierre Rolland and Ryder Hesjedal who don’t have much to lose and are never afraid of attacking from the distance.

 

As we expect Sky to control the race and the finale to be very animated, the early break won’t have much of a chance and it will come down to a battle between the main favourites on the final two climbs. While the main favourites will keep their powder dry for the final climb, we will pretty sure that we will see some strong attacks already on the Petite-Forclaz. This means that Froome is likely to be isolated earlier than usual and like last year he may be forced to make his big attack earlier than he would have liked to.

 

Despite the fact that Sky don’t have their strongest team in this race and that Froome may find himself on his own in the finale, it is hard not to regard the defending champion as the big favourite. Whenever he has been at 100%, he has proved that he is the best climber in the world and he is usually at a pretty high level at this time of the year. In the past, he has proved that he can handle the Swiss cold and the final climb suits him pretty well.

 

Of course there are some question marks about his condition as he was far from his best in the Volta a Catalunya which was his last major outing. However, he was just coming back from illness in that race and since then he has had a great training camp at altitude. He usually comes down from Mount Teide in excellent condition and he seems to be confident that he is riding well. He looked motivated and strong until he crashed in Fleche Wallonne, he was strong in the team time trial and he rode attentively when some of the favourites attacked in the finale of stage 2.

 

When he was last in solid condition, Froome beat Alberto Contador with a dominant performance in the Ruta del Sol and he will keen to make another demonstration of power in this stage. In the past two years he has been unable to win the stage but this year the harder finale means that it will be hard for anyone to stay with him. The biggest challenge for him will be to control the race without a very strong team but we doubt that anyone will be able to stay with him when he makes his big attack. In 2013, however, Simon Spilak won the stage by anticipating Froome and then staying with the favourite when he was caught from behind. A similar scenario could happen in this stage but as we expect Froome to be in a class of his own, he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

The rider who is most likely to be able to match the Brit, is of course Nairo Quintana. The Colombian was riding outstandingly in Tirreno-Adriatico but since then he has seemed to be a bit off the pace. Despite being the big favourite, he failed to win the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and he didn’t really shine in the Ardennes. Of course he was held up behind the crash in Liege but while many other riders managed to rejoin the peloton, he never made it back.

 

Quintana’s performance in Pais Vasco was a big disappointment but the longer climbs in Romandie suit him much better. Furthermore, he is comfortable in the cold conditions and on paper he is one of the three best climbers in this race. Vincenzo Nibali is clearly not at his best and so Quintana is the rider who is most likely to be able to follow Froome. It remains to be seen whether he has improved his level since Pais Vasco but if he has rediscovered his Tirreno legs, he will be a strong contender.

 

Simon Spilak is always riding exceptionally well in this race. The bad weather in Romandie suits him perfectly as he is one of the strongest riders in these conditions and in the last two editions he has beaten Froome in a two-rider sprint to win the queen stage. This year he even seems to be riding at a higher level. In Pais Vasco, he was climbing extremely well and we still believe that he would have won the race overall if he hadn’t had a mechanical at the start of the time trial.

 

In this race, Spilak has again given a very strong impression. He did a massive amount of work in Katusha’s great time trial and he appeared to be at ease on the big climb in stage 2. The long, gradual Romandie climbs suit him really well and he is not afraid of attacking. However, it will be hard for him to distance Froome and Quintana and he is not fast in a sprint. However, the two grand tour stars can’t sprint either and so Spilak could make it three in a row in the Romandie mountains.

 

Rui Costa has finished on the podium in this race three years in a row and he has always been very strong in Swiss races whose gradual, not too steep climbs suit him excellently. Last year his performance was a bit of a surprise as he was not at his best in the Ardennes but this year he is clearly in great condition. He was strong in the classics and he and the Lampre-Merida team have been riding very well in this race until now. He is no pure climber but on this kind of climb he should be able to do well. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint and if he can stay with the best, he will be hard to beat.

 

Romain Bardet had made Liege-Bastogne-Liege his big goal after a disappointing start to the year and he was very strong in the Belgian classic. A few days earlier he delivered an impressive performance in stage 3 of the Giro del Trentino and he is clearly in great condition. This climb suits him well and as Ag2r lost a lot of time in the team time trial, he won’t be heavily marked. If the favourites are unable to distance each other, he may be the one to benefit from their hesitation.

 

Pierre Rolland is riding excellently at the moment. He won the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon overall and he finished close to the best in Fleche Wallonne in a final that doesn’t suit him at all. He had hoped to be doing well in this race but he suffered on the wet descents today and so dropped out of GC contention. Hence, his big goal now is to win this stage and he will not be afraid to attack. If he escapes already on the penultimate climb, everybody knows that he will be very hard to catch,

 

Jakob Fuglsang has been riding really well this year and he has clearly continued his steady improvements on the climbs. He was one of the strongest riders in the Ardennes and the longer climbs in Romandie should suit him better. He is part of the strongest team in this race and he seems to be Astana’s strongest rider. While Vincenzo Nibali will be heavily marked, the Dane may have a bit more freedom and he has the right aggressive mindset to benefit from that.

 

Thibaut Pinot has had a mixed season. He was very strong in Tirreno but was far from his usual level in Pais Vasco and the Criterium International. Now he hopes to end his spring on a high in Romandie where the long climbs and the bad weather suit him well. At his best, he is an excellent climber and won’t be far from the best. Furthermore, he is very aggressive and he may be able to capitalize on the fight between the biggest favourites.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. For Mathias Frank, this is one of his season highlights and he has prepared meticulously for this event. Last year he finished fourth overall and in the Tour de Suisse he also proved that he is now one of the very best climbers in the world. He has had a slow start to the year but everything has been focused on this race and he should be among the best tomorrow.

 

Astana have so many cards to play. One of their best is Michele Scarponi who will probably have the task of attacking early. The Italian was very strong in Pais Vasco and did an impressive Liege-Bastogne-Liege. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him take off already on the penultimate climb and as Sky and Movistar don’t have the strongest teams, he may hold on to take the win.

 

Ilnur Zakarin and Tury Trofimov are both building condition for the Giro d’Italia and both seem to be riding really well. Zakarin had a breakthrough performance in Pais Vasco and Trofimov has proved that he can be with the best on the climbs in these week-long races. Katusha have lots of cards to play and most will have their eyes on Spilak. This could open the door for the two Russian to go on the attack.

 

Darwin Atapuma has not had much of a chance to show himself in the BMC colours after he crashed out of last year’s Tour de France. However, he has been riding really well in 2015 and he nearly held onto an outstanding Richie Porte in the Catalunya queen stage. He looked strong in the first two road stages of this race and as he can’t time trial, he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Simon Spilak

Outsiders: Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Pierro Rolland, Jakob Fuglsang, Thibaut Pinot, Vincenzo Nibali

Jokers: Mathias Frank, Michele Scarponi, Yury Trofimov, Ilnur Zakarin, Darwin Atapuma