During the four days of racing in the Dubai Tour, the wind failed to split the peloton but that is unlikely to be the case for the six-day Tour of Qatar. Almost the entire sprinting elite and cobbled classics peloton has gathered in the Qatari desert for six days of aggressive, windy and hard racing on the exposed roads but with a strong headwind predicted, it seems that the sprinters will come to the fore on the first day.

 

The course

For the fourth year in a row, the time trial will not be held on the opening day as the race again kicks off with a road stage. The 136km stage is very similar to last year’s opener as it mainly consists of a long run across the peninsula but this year the riders will go the opposite direction of what they have done in the past. The stage is almost identical to last year’s fourth stage but this time the riders will go a little further south to finish at the Beach Resort.

 

The stage starts in Dukhan where last year’s stage finished, and the first part consists of a southerly run along the coast. After 24km of racing, the riders reach the first change of direction when they turn to the left to cross the peninsula. They will contest the first intermediate sprint a little later, after 38km of racing.

 

Just after the feed zone, the riders will hit the road that leads to the capital of Doha but with 58km to go, they will make a turn to head in a southeasterly direction. Having contested the final intermediate sprint with 47km to go, they continue to the city of Mesaaied where they do a few turns before they head to the south for a finish at the Sealine Beach.

 

The finale is pretty straightforward as the riders will follow along straight road. They will go straight through roundabouts just before 5km to go and with 2.5km to go. Inside the final kilometre, the road bends slightly to the left, with the finishing straight being 470m long and the sprint taking place on an 8m wide road.

  

While Dukhan Beach has hosted the finish of the opening stage twice in a row, Sealine Beach has never been the site of a stage finish. It is the traditional start site for the final stage but this year it will crown the first holder of the leader’s jersey.

 

 

The weather

The weather forecast is the key ingredient for every rider in the Tour of Qatar. On a calm day, the stages are a predictable affair for the sprinters but if the wind is strong and the direction right, it turns into a big battle with riders spread all across the road and bigger time gaps than a mountain stage can produce. Hence, all teams will have studied the weather forecast for tomorrow’s opening stage with extra care.

 

It will be an unusually cloudy day in Qatar, with only a bit of sunshine expected at the midpoint of the stage. With a temperature of 25 degrees, however, it will still be a pleasant ride through the desert.

 

There will be a pretty strong wind from a southeasterly direction and this will please the sprinters as it means that there will be a cross-headwind or a headwind all day. Inside the final 10km, however, the riders make a small turn as they reach the coast and this means that there will be a direct crosswinds from the left in the finale.

 

The favourites

The classics specialists have desperately hoped for crosswinds action in most of the road stages and so they will be pretty disappointed with the weather forecast for tomorrow’s stage. The wind will be pretty strong but with a cross-headwind or a headwind, it will be virtually impossible to split things.

 

This won’t take away the nervousness as everybody will be prepared for a surprise in the Qatari desert and whenever there is a change of direction, we could see a big fight for position. With the wind being against the riders, however, they will probably be more concerned about keeping a good position than doing an outright attack and shortly after each turn, the race will probably calm down again.

 

This means that we can expect a rather uneventful start to the race. Qatari stages can either be hugely entertaining or pretty boring attack-chase-catch affairs and it seems that the first stage will fall into the latter category.

 

We may see a slightly nervous start but with the headwind blowing right from the beginning, we can expect a pretty slow start to the race. No one really wants to venture into a big break in those conditions and it is almost impossible to stay away on these long straight roads with a headwind. Hence, we can expect the break to get clear almost right from the gun and it will probably be a pretty small group with riders from the smaller teams like Bardiani, Lampre-Merida, IAM, MTN Qhubeka, Topsport Vlaanderen or maybe Movistar who are not really in their terrain.

 

First stages can always be a bit tricky as there is no race leader to take control but with the stage suiting the sprinters perfectly, we can expect Giant-Alpecin to come to the fore. They are likely to get some assistance from Cofidis and FDJ who have two of the fastest sprinters in this race. With several top sprinters in the race, Etixx-QuickStep, Tinkoff-Saxo , MTN-Qhubeka and Lampre-Merida may even lend a hand if things get dangerous but in these conditions that is unlikely to happen.

 

With the escapees likely to pick up the bonus seconds, the real excitement will be saved for the finale when the riders head along the coast. At first, they will have a cross-headwind but inside the final 10km it will become more of a crosswind. This should make for some nervous racing and the speed will be very fast as all the big teams want to stay near the front. We may even see some splits happening and if this stage will make any kind of selection, it will happen in the very finale.

 

With the wind coming at a point when all the sprint trains are organized, we expect the big sprinters to make the selection and it is also very uncertain whether the wind will be strong enough to split things. Hence, we are heading for a sprint finish and with a very straightforward finale on a very wide road, this is one for the real power sprinters who can go really fast. However, the big fight in the finale may leave some of them fatigued and even though positioning will be less important for this kind of finish, it will be important to have a strong team to avoid any splits in the finale.

 

With a bunch sprint the expected outcome, it is hard to look beyond Marcel Kittel as the overwhelming favourite. The German may have a hard time in the possibly windy conditions later in the race but with a headwind, he will have a very easy day in the saddle and should arrive pretty fresh in the finale.

 

Kittel got his season off to a solid start in the Tour Down Under where he won the opening criterium and even though he failed to win a stage in the real race, he looked much stronger than he did one year ago. Back then, he was flying when he headed to the Middle East and put in his best ever climbing performance to win a tough stage at the Dubai Tour and two sprint stages.

 

Nothing suggests that he is not at the same level this time around and this fast sprint suits him down to the ground. Furthermore, he is supported by a formidable lead-out train as the fast guys that John Degenkolb was missing in Dubai are with Kittel in Qatar. He is supported by his usual lead-out man Tom Veelers and Bert De Backer, Ramon Sinkeldam, Nikias Arndt and Albert Timmer also have plenty of lead-out experience. On paper, Giant-Alpecin should be able to dominate the finale and make sure that Kittel is delivered perfectly on the front. In this kind of long sprint, he is very hard to beat and with a wide road, he even has room to move up if he has to come from behind. This makes him the overwhelming favourite to win the stage.

 

Nacer Bouhanni got his season off to a disastrous start as his Cofidis lead-out train failed to deliver him on the front in the two sprint races of the Challenge Mallorca and now he will be eager to get his revenge. In last year’s Vuelta, he proved that he is pretty strong in windy conditions so he may even shine later in the race but tomorrow, it will be all about the sprint.

 

Bouhanni is supported by almost his entire lead-out train in Qatar but they still have to find out how to make things work. It will be hard for them to go up against Giant-Alpecin but Bouhanni is a master in getting onto the right wheels in the finale. On paper, he is probably the second fastest rider in this race and even though this kind of power sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly, he should turn out to be Kittel’s biggest rival.

 

Arnaud Demare is making his season debut in Qatar and at this time of the year he is usually not strong enough to fight for position in the wind. However, he has usually been riding really well in the sprint stages and he has won the final stage into Doha twice. This kind of easy stage will give him the perfect chance to get the legs going and he is excellent in this kind of power sprints that come at the end of easy days.

 

Demare is supported by his entire lead-out train – only Sebastien Chavanel isn’t there – and last year they proved that they have the firepower to mix it up with the best. With William Bonnet and Mickael Delage to deliver him in a good position, he is one of the select few who have the speed to beat Kittel.

 

 Andrea Guardini has proved that he is in excellent condition right from the beginning of the year and even though he will be nowhere to be seen on the really hard days, he will shine on the easier ones. He will be pleased to know that there will be a headwind for most of the stage, meaning that he will get an easy ride to the finish and then he is always a danger man. His main weakness is his lead-out train which is not very strong but on such a wide road, there is room to move up. He has improved his positioning a lot and this kind of finishing straight suits him well.

 

Sacha Modolo got his season off to a decent start in San Luis where he took a couple of podium spots and he will be eager to make things right in Qatar. He claimed to be pleasantly surprised with his condition and in the desert he can count on a very strong lead-out train that contains the likes of Filippo Pozzato, Roberto Ferrari and lead-out man Maximilano Richeze. That combination was a winning one in 2014 and even though this kind of sprint doesn’t suit him too well, he is one of the fastest riders in the bunch.

 

One rider that will relish the easy conditions is Theo Bos. Like Guardini, the Dutchman is a pure sprinter and in sprints on easy days, he is one of the very fastest. He can rely on support from the new MTN-Qhubeka lead-out train and the likes of Kristian Sbaragli, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Gerald Ciolek will deliver lots of firepower. They may not have found their automatisms yet and things didn’t really work out in Mallorca but Bos is definitely one of the riders who have the speed to win.

 

Of course Alexander Kristoff deserves to be mentioned. The Norwegian is never really strong in Qatar as he is far from his best condition and making his season debut. Furthermore, this kind of easy stage won’t suit him too much but the Norwegian can never be counted out. He is excellent at positioning himself and this could make him a contender.

 

Finally, we will select two jokers. Sam Bennett got a fantastic start to his professional career and we have huge expectations for the young Irishman in 2015. He showed good condition in Mallorca where he sprinted really well in the first race despite riding on a flat tire and he finished a solid fourth on the final day when he was suffering from stomach issues. The Bora-Argon 18 train has been strengthened and if they can position their sprinter well, he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Nicola Ruffoni is one of the future top sprinters but he didn’t really show much in Dubai. He is hampered by a lack of support in the sprint finishes and this makes it hard for him to make use of the speed. Last year, however, he proved that he is able to match Kittel on days like this and with a wide finishing straight, there should be room for him to sprint. He will suffer from a lack of team support in the windy finale but you can never rule out the young Italian and his amazing speed.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Arnaud Demare

Outsiders: Andrea Guardini, Theo Bos, Sacha Modolo, Alexander Kristoff

Jokers: Sam Bennett, Nicola Ruffoni