For the fourth year in a row, the Volta a Catalunya kicks off with a stage around the city of Calella and again it includes the same hilly finale. While the GC riders will have to stay attentive on the final descent to the finish, the fast finishers hope to survive the final climb and get a chance to sprint for the first leader’s jersey in the Spanish race.

 

The course

For the fourth year in a row, the race kicks off on the Mediterranean coast in the city of Calella which again hosts both the start and the finish of the opening stage. Those four stages have all had different routes but the finale has been the same, meaning that the riders know what to expect from a stage that has traditionally been suited to sprinters with good climbing legs.

 

At 185.2km, this year's first stage is longer than usual. From the start, the riders follow the flat coastal road to Mataro where they will contest the first intermediate sprint at the 21km mark before they leave the coast to return back to the start in Calella by going up and down a small uncategorized climb. Back in the starting city, the riders will do the second intermediate sprint after 47.5km of racing.

 

From there they continue along the coastal road before turning inlands along flat roads to the city of Hostalric. This signals the end of the flat part of the stage as the riders leave the valley to head up the category 2 Alt de Viladrau  (11.8km, 3.8%, max. 7%). There is no real descent as the riders stay on a plateau until the hit the category 1 Alt de Coll Formic (7.8km, 5.2%, max. 9%) whose top comes 55.5km from the finish.

 

The climb is followed by a long descent back to the valley road and a short section of slightly rising roads before the riders reach the finale that is unchanged compared to the last three years. It consists of the category 3 climb Alt de Collsacreu (7.4km, 3.0%, max. 6.0%) whose top comes 18.5km from the finish. Those final kilometres consist of a partly technical descent back to the coastal road where the riders turn left to head along flat roads for the final 8km back to the finish in Callella. There is a slight rise 5.5km from the finish but otherwise the finale is uncomplicated. The riders turn right in a roundabout 2km from the finish and from there it is straight all the way to the finish. The roads are both slightly ascending and descending in the finale. A small descent leads to the final 500m which have an average gradient of 2%.

 

In 2012, the peloton failed to catch the early breakaway which allowed Michael Albasini to take a solo win that set him up for his final overall victory. In 2013, all was set for a bunch sprint when Sky split things on the final descent, with Bradley Wiggins, Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Michele Scarponi, and Daniel Martin being some of the 13 riders that arrived 28 seconds earlier than the peloton. Gianni Meersman had made the split and the Belgian had no trouble taking the first of two stage wins in the sprint. Last year things were less complicated and it ended in a bunch sprint where Luka Mezgec came out on top.

 

 

The weather

The riders had very bad weather for the second half of Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and they had surely hoped to find sunny conditions in Catalonia. That won’t be the case for the first few days though and they will get the race off to a cloudy start. There is a risk of showers all day and the temperature will reach a maximum of only 13 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will first have a tailwind and then a headwind when they head back to Calella for the first time. On the big loop, they will first have a cross-tailwind and then a cross-headwind as they go up the biggest climb of the day. That will also be the case on the final climb while there will be a headwind on the subsequent descent. There will be a headwind in the final flat section along the coast.

 

 

The favourites

Volta a Catalunya has always been a strange race. On one hand, the hilly terrain means that it is definitely no race for the sprinters and so all the major fast finishers always stay away from the Spanish event. On the other hand, the fact that most of the stages have flat finishes means that the race has historically had a lot of bunch sprints.

 

This had made the race a perfect playing ground for versatile sprinters who can overcome the many Catalonian climbs and still have a fast finish at the end of a hard race. In 2013, Gianni Meersman completely dominated the sprint finishes and last year it was Luka Mezgec who left the race with three stage victories.

 

The 2015 edition seems to be no exception from this tendency. As all stages have plenty of climbing, the big-name sprinters have not travelled to Spain but there should still be plenty of room for the fast legs. Unsurprisingly, this has attracted a host of the Mezgec-Meersman type of sprinters and Mezgec is among the contenders in the sprints in this year’s race.

 

The opening stage to Calella should again provide us with a first insight into the sprinting hierarchy in the race. This is the third year in a row that the opening stage will have the same finale and history proves that it is usually a day for the fast finishers. However, this year the stage is longer and tougher and this means that it may be a slightly smaller bunch that arrives at the finish to decide the race in the expected bunch sprint.

 

In 2012, the breakaway managed to stay away in the first stage and many teams don’t even have a sprinter in the team. There are also lots of wildcard teams in this race and they all want to be a part of the early break. Hence, the race may get off to a fast start and it could take slightly longer time than usual before the early break is formed. Expect a small group mainly with riders from the pro continental teams to escape after what could be a slightly nervous start along the coast.

 

A first stage in a stage race can be a strange affair as the lack of an overall leader means that the early break has a bigger chance of staying away. That was the case three years ago when Michael Albasini took a surprise win from a breakaway in this stage. This year, however, Tinkoff-Saxo, Movistar, Katusha and Sky all have great ambitions for the overall and there is no chance that they will throw anything away on the opening day. If the situation gets dangerous, those four teams should combine forces to bring the early break back.

 

However, they are unlikely to come into action. This stage is definitely a big goal for Europcar and Giant-Alpecin and we can expect those three teams to combine forces in the chase. Due to the hilly terrain, they will probably keep the break on a pretty short leash as they can’t allow themselves to go too fast up the climbs.

 

This year the stage has been made harder and the inclusion of a category 1 climb in the second half could make things tough for the sprinters. It will be interesting to see if one of the sprint teams will try to ride tempo up that ascent to distance some of the rivals.

 

As the roads are likely to be wet, the GC riders will be nervous for the descent and there is little doubt that Sky will apply their usual tactic, at least on the final climb. For that ascent, the fight for position will be fierce and this will probably spell the end for the early breakaway. As soon as they hit the climb, we can expect Sky to hit the front to set a fast tempo that will make sure that Chris Froome and Richie Porte start the descent in the best possible position. This will make it hard for the sprinters. On the other hand, there will be a cross-headwind on the final two climbs which should make the race slightly less selective

 

Two years ago the peloton split on the descent and wet roads mean that a similar scenario could occur. However, all GC riders have learnt from that experience and most of them will make sure to stay near the front. Nonetheless, we could see gaps open up and some of the main riders may lose time already on the opening day. With a headwind in the flat final section, however, it is most likely that it will be a pretty big group that sprints for the win.

 

History shows that most of the sprinters are able to survive the final climb but with a harder stage, it may be a slightly smaller group that we saw last year. This makes it a bit harder to predict who will be there in the end.

 

Bryan Coquard has proved that he is one of the biggest sprint talents but he still hasn’t taken a win on the WorldTour. This year he has decided to skip the Northern Classics to head to Catalonia which should be a race that suits him down to the ground and provides him with lots of chances to finally open his account in the big league.

 

Coquard is mainly known as a sprinter but he is actually a solid climber too. In Paris-Nice, he proved to be in outstanding condition despite his recent track commitments. He both climbed well and was a key protagonist in the sprints. Most impressively, he did an excellent sprint in the uphill finale on stage 5 to come from far back and take a nice second place.

 

On paper, Coquard is one of the three fastest riders in this race but he usually has a hard time when it comes to positioning. In this race, however, there are no real lead-out trains and fewer sprinters which means that it will be easier for him not to get caught out. Among the fastest riders, he is one of the best climbers and as he is currently in very good condition, he may also be one of the freshest in the end. There is still a risk that he will get boxed in but if he gets a clear run to the line, he is our favourite to win.

 

Last year Luka Mezgec was the dominant sprinter in this race which again is one of his big goals. If it hadn’t been for recent setbacks, he would have been our favourite to win this sprint again but this year he enters the event as a big question mark. He was ill before Tirreno-Adriatico and then he had a bad crash on stage 2. That left him with completely empty legs and he suffered in the race until he abandoned on the penultimate day.

 

Mezgec has now had time to recover and there is a chance that he is back at a decent level for this race. He was riding very strongly in the Tour du Haut-Var and his great form can’t have disappeared completely. On paper, he is one of the very fastest riders in this race and last year he proved that he can handle the sprints despite not having a real lead-out. This sprint may come a bit too early for him but if he has recovered, he could make it two in a row in Calella.

 

On paper, the fastest rider in this race could be Caleb Ewan who is riding his first WorldTour race of the season in Catalonia. Last year he proved that he can already mix it up with the best at the highest level in the Tour of Beijing and he enters the race with lots of confidence as he recently won two stages in the Tour de Langkawi.

 

Ewan is not only very fast, he is also a very good climber and this race should suit him really well. He climbed strongly in Langkawi but this race is simply at a higher level. In Beijing, he suffered on the climbs and it may still be a bit too early for him to win this kind of hard stage. There is a risk that he will get dropped before the finale or that the climbs will take the sting out of his legs but if he is there at the end, he could definitely open his WorldTour account.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas is perfectly suited to this race but in the last few years, he has been doing the Northern Classics. This year he is back in Catalonia and he has a big chance to take a stage victory. In 2015, he has been sprinting better than ever before and he crowned it all when he beat most of the best sprinters in the Tour of Qatar. Most recently, he was very consistent in Paris-Nice where he took two top 5 results.

 

The French race proved that Rojas has the speed to beat the best but he usually suffers in the finales as he doesn’t have any team support and so has to start his sprint from a poor position. In this race, there are no big lead-out trains though and this should make it easier for the Movistar sprinter. Furthermore, he is an excellent climber and he should have no trouble surviving the ascents in this race. If he can get into a decent position, it may finally be time for Rojas to win another WorldTour race.

 

Roberto Ferrari was once expected to be a leading sprinter at Lampre-Merida but he is now far down the hierarchy in the Italian team. In this race, however, he will get his chance and on paper he should be one of the fastest riders. The main challenge for him will be to survive the climbs. Last year he managed to do so but he was left fatigued and could only manage 8th in the sprint. This year the stage is even harder and we doubt that he will be there in the end. If he is, however, he should be one of the fastest and he is great at positioning himself.

 

Francesco Lasca has had a lot of injuries in recent years but he remains a very fast finisher. The Italian is very fast and on his good days, he climbs reasonably well. He has not had much luck so far in 2015 but this race is a big goal for him and he will be keen to shine. It will be hard for him to make it over the climbs but if he manages to do so, he will be one of the fastest.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Kevin Reza left Europcar to get more chances to sprint for himself in hilly races and he has repeatedly named this race as one of his big goals. The FDJ rider is very strong in this kind of terrain and he has a fast sprint at the end of a hard race. He showed good form in the recent Classique Loire Atlantique and even though there are faster riders than him in this race, he should be able to do well.

 

The fastest rider in this race is probably Matteo Pelucchi but we don’t think the Italian can handle this kind of hilly course. This year he has improved his strength a lot which has already allowed him to pick up a few wins but it will be hard for him to get many chances in this terrain. Furthermore, he has been ill recently and he crashed out of Tirreno-Adriatico. Nonetheless, he could create a surprise and if he is there at the finish, he will be the man to beat.

 

Jasper Stuyven proved his sprinting potential in the Vuelta a Espana where he took a few top 10 results in bunch sprints. This race should suit him really well and he should have a rare chance to sprint for himself. There are definitely faster riders in this race but Stuyven is a great climber and at the end of a hard race, he could be the fastest. He crashed out of Strade Bianche and so may not be in his best condition but he should still be able to make it to the finish with the best in this stage.

 

Lotto Soudal are here with Boris Vallee who gets a rare chance to be the protected sprinter. The Belgian proved his potential in last year’s Tour de Pologne where he took a couple of top 10 results. On paper, this stage may be a bit too hard for him and there is a risk that he will get dropped before the finish. If he makes the selection though, he may be able to rely on Greg Henderson who is one of the best lead-out men and this could make the difference for the young Belgian.

 

Leonardo Duque is not among the fastest sprinters but the veteran Colombian is a solid climber. This means that this race suits him very well. He is not great at positioning himself but he has lots of experience and the less hectic finales should make it easier for him. Things will have to come together for him to win a stage but on his days, he can create a surprise.

 

Wanty are here with Danilo Napolitano but the terrain should be too hard for the Italian who is coming back from injury. Instead, it may give the chance for Jerome Baugnies to test himself in the sprints. The Belgian had an amazing 2014 season and this race suits him well. He is strong in this kind of terrain and he has a fast finish. He is no real sprinter though and as he is not in his best condition, he is unlikely to win the stage. However, he could get a surprise spot on the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Bryan Coquard

Other winner candidates: Luka Mezgec, Caleb Ewan

Outsiders: Jose Joaquin Rojas, Roberto Ferrari, Francesco Lasca

Jokers: Kevin Reza, Matteo Pelucchi, Jasper Stuyven, Julien Alaphilippe, Boris Vallee, Leonardo Duque, Jerome Baugnies