The finale of stage 2 turned out not the be hard enough to make a difference for the GC riders and so Maciej Paterski, Pierre Rolland and Bart De Clercq still find themselves in a great position. Tomorrow, however, the pre-race favourites will get their first chance to take back some time on the escapees from stage 1 as the hilly third stage has the potential to do some damage and we should be in for a great show as the likes of Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde and Alberto Contador can no longer wait until the queen stage to launch their attacks.

 

The course

For the fourth year in a row, the city of Girona which is the base for a host of professional riders, will play a prominent role in this race. While it served as both start and finishing city three years ago, it was the point of departure in 2013. In 2014 the riders finished in the cycling hotbed a few kilometres from the Mediterranean coast and this year it will host both the start and the finish of the third stage.

 

In 2012, the stage finish in Girona was a pretty tough one while last year’s stage was suited to the sprinters. This year the organizers have again opted for the finale that was used in 2012 and this should turn it into a pretty tough affair.

 

The short 156.6km stage can be divided into two parts. First the riders do a 95.6km circuit on the southern outskirts of the city. The first part is mainly flat until the riders turn around and start to head back towards Girona. Here they will go up the category 3 Alt de Romanya (2.6km, 3.4%, max. 6%) and the category 3 Alt de la Ganga (3.7km, 4%, max. 6%) at the 41.4km and 57.4km marks respectively. In between, they will contest the first intermediate sprint and 8.6km after the latter climb, the second sprint is located.

 

Another flat section leads to the bottom of the category 1 Alt des Angels (6km, 5.5%, max. 8%) which will play an important role in the final part of the stage too. After the top, the riders descend for 10.4km before they hit the flat 2.6km that lead to the finish.

 

The second part of the stage consists of a 61km circuit. The flat start is identical to the early part of the first circuit but this time the riders will turn around a bit earlier. Instead of tackling the two small category 3 climbs, they will face the category 2 Alt de Santa Pellaia (5.9km, 4%, max. 6%) which summits with 37.6km to go. Then a long descent and a short flat section lead onto the final part of the first circuit which means that the riders will again tackle the Alt dels Angels. Like before, the summit comes 13km from the finish and then it is the same 10.4km descent and 2.6km flat section that lead to the line.

 

There are no major technical challenges in the finale. The riders will pass straight through two roundabouts between the 2km and 3km to go marks as they head along a slightly winding road. The final kilometre is straight and flat, with a roundabout located 500m from the line.

 

The Alt dels Angels is a pretty hard climb and this stage is definitely not one for the sprinters. When the finale was last used in 2012, the climbs was the scene of some attacking from the GC riders – both on the climb and on the descent – but it was a 31-rider group that arrived at the finish together, with Michael Albasini beating Dario Cataldo and Rigoberto Uran in the sprint.

 

When Girona hosted a finish in 2014, the finale was a lot easier and it was Luka Mezgec who won the stage by beating Roberto Ferrari and Daniele Ratto in a bunch sprint.

 

 

The weather

After they were spared the rain in the first stage, things turned sour for the riders on stage 2 which was tackled in horrendous conditions. Great weather is forecasted for the final four stages – most notably for the stage 4 mountaintop finish – but first the riders have to get through a cloudy Wednesday.

 

Rain will still be falling in the morning but it seems that it will stay dry for the entire stage. There won’t be any sunshine though and the temperature will reach a maximum of 14 degrees.

 

It will be unusually windy as there will be a strong wind from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will first have a tailwind on both circuits before they turn into a crosswind and later a headwind. There will again be a crosswind for the Alt dels Angels while there will both be a crosswind and a tailwinds on the descent. In the finale, the riders will turn into a cross-headwind for most of the final 5km before they again face a crosswind after the passage of the flamme rouge.

 

The favourites

The pre-race favourites are in desperate need of taking back some time from Pierre Rolland and Bart De Clercq who are both great climbers and they can no longer allow themselves to wait until the final climb of the queen stage. They have to take every possible opportunity to distance the pair and today they had their first chance.

 

Going into the stage, there was a bit of uncertainty about whether the finale would be hard enough to make a difference. It turned out that the organizers had a good reason not to categorize the long, gradual uphill in the finale as it was a pretty large group that sprinted for the win. Hence, the pre-race favourites had no chance to distance Rolland and De Clercq and the only main difference compared to yesterday was the fact that Alejandro Valverde picked up 10 bonus seconds.

 

Before the race, Valverde was our favourite to win the race as his fast sprint meant that he could pick up bonifications along the way and today he proved us right. If it hadn’t been for the surprise outcome on stage 1, he would just have to stay with the likes of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador in the queen stage to win the race. However, the surprise outcome of stage 1 makes things more complicated and if Valverde wants to win the race, he can no longer just rely on his fast sprint.

 

The queen stage of course presents the favourites with the biggest opportunity to distance the leading riders but tomorrow is also a great chance. The Alt dels Angels is not overly hard but it may be tough enough to make a difference. In fact, the situation is very similar to when this finale was last used in 2012. Back then, it was Michael Albasini who had gained a surprise advantage in a breakaway and he was constantly attacked by the GC riders on the climb. However, he managed to stay with the best and instead of losing time, he ended up winning the stage in a 31-rider sprint.

 

Tomorrow we should have a similar scenario. With the hilly terrain, it could again be a good opportunity for a breakaway and so the race is likely to get off to a fast start with lots of attacks. It will probably take some time for the break to be established and then CCC will hit the front. It may not be beyond Paterski’s reach to defend his lead in this stage and the Polish team will definitely give it a try.

 

The strong wind should make for some nervous racing and it may be a good idea for some of the big teams to try to attack in the crosswinds. Rolland and De Clercq are not good at positioning themselves in the peloton and the long crosswind section on the first lap could be a chance to do some damage. There’s still a long way to the finish after that section but if some of the key riders get dropped, we could be in for a very exciting stage.

 

Otherwise, it will all come down to the final three climbs where we can expect Sky, Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo to hit the front. They need to make this race as hard as possible and so they can’t allow CCC to set the pace all day. All teams have formidable rosters of climbers and they need to make use of it in this stage.

 

Furthermore, Movistar need the bonus seconds to come into play and this means that it will be very hard for the early break to stay away. The Spanish team will probably make sure that everything is back together for the final climb where the big GC battle will play out.

 

Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde and Alberto Contador simply have to attack and even though the climb is probably not hard enough for them to distance each other, it may be possible for them to get rid of the three best riders on GC. Rolland and De Clercq are not very explosive and they are not suited to this kind of climb. However, it remains to be seen how strong Froome is. Today he was riding near the back of the field which is very unusual for him. It indicates that he is not feeling well but no official information about his condition has been given.

 

A small group of favourites is likely to be together at the top and then it will be important for the favourites to cooperate. They can’t allow themselves to give Rolland and De Clercq a second chance if they have fallen off the pace. Sky, Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo all have formidable teams and some of their best climbers may make it to the top with the best. If that’s the case, they may be able to keep their chasers at bay and it could be a pretty small group that sprints for the win.

 

With a lack of domestiques, there is always a chance that someone may attack in the flat finale which can be difficult to control and so it may be possible to take a surprise solo win by a few seconds. However, the GC riders will try to keep the pace high all the way to the finish if Rolland and De Clercq have been distanced and so the most likely scenario is a sprint finish.

 

In that case, Alejandro Valverde is the overwhelming favourite. The Spaniard has always been capable of winning sprints from even rather big groups but he rarely mixes it up with the best in the bunch kicks. Today he gave it a shot and he was clearly the fastest from the big group that arrived at the finish. Tomorrow the group is likely to be a lot smaller and this should make it even easier for him to win the stage.

 

His main challenge will be to keep it together for a sprint but as he can probably count of the support from Jose Herrada and Ruben Fernandez in the finale that should be a manageable task. If it comes down to a sprint finish, Valverde will be the man to beat.

 

Rigoberto Uran finished third in this stage when it was last used in 2012 and he has all the qualities to shine here. In Tirreno-Adriatico, he showed that he is excellent condition and on this kind of climb he should be able to stay with the best. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint as he proved when he won the sprint for second in stage 4 of Tirreno-Adriatico. It will be hard for him to beat Valverde but he is likely to be the biggest rival for the Movistar captain.

 

Daniel Martin is on home roads in this race which is always a big goal for him. He won the race in 2013 and this year he hopes to repeat that performance. He wasn’t in a very good condition in Tirreno-Adriatico but his legs usually start to come around at this time of the year. He may not be good enough to stay with the best in the queen stage but here it should be manageable for the Irishman. He is fast in a sprint and should be one of the biggest rivals for Valverde.

 

Wilco Kelderman is in search of redemption after his poor Paris-Nice and he is well-suited to this kind of stage. He may not be in his best condition but this climb should be manageable for the young Dutchman. He is actually pretty explosive too and today he finished fifth in the bunch sprint. Like everybody else, he faces a tough challenge if he wants to beat Valverde but he should be up there in the sprint.

 

If a bigger group arrives at the finish, it could be a day for Julien Simon. On his best days, the Frenchman climbs really well and it no coincidence that he won two stages here in 2012. After a bad 2013, he was very good in 2014 and this year he is hoping for even more. He has been set back by illness and he won’t be with the best if it turns out to be a big GC stage but if a regrouping takes place, he will have a chance.

 

The same can be said for Jonathan Hivert. The Frenchman finished a fine fourth in today’s stage and has all the skills to shine in this stage. He is both a very good climber and fast finisher and in a smaller group he won’t suffer too much in the fight for position. He didn’t look too strong in Paris-Nice though and so he won’t be there if the group is very small. If a bigger group makes it to the finish, he will be one of the favourites.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Enrico Gasparotto is using this race to prepare for the Ardennes classics and he seems to be at a pretty good level. On his best days, he is very strong in this kind of terrain and the final climb suits him really well. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint and he may even be there if it’s a pretty small group at the end. If that’s the case, he may be the man to beat Valverde.

 

Cyril Gautier is mainly known as an attacker but he is actually very fast in a sprint too. While he is usually not able to follow the best in the big mountains, he is hard to drop in this kind of terrain. To win the stage, he will need a lot of luck but if he makes a good sprint, a podium spot is definitely within reach.

 

It still remains to be seen how strong Julian Alaphilippe will become but the Frenchman has an unlimited potential. Today he faded in the sprint after having been given the perfect lead-out but that’s not indicative for what seems to be a very good condition. This stage should be too tough for him but if the favourites fail to cooperate, he may get back in contention and then he may win the sprint.

 

The same can be said for Tosh van der Sande who is climbing really well when he is at his best. That is unlikely to be the case at the moment but he seems to be riding at a solid level. He won the bunch sprint for fourth in yesterday’s stage and is usually strong in a sprint from a small group. For him to win the stage, the stage cannot be too selective but if a bigger group gathers at the end, he should be there.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin

Outsiders: Wilco Kelderman, Jonathan Hivert, Enrico Gasparotto, Julien Simon

Jokers: Cyril Gautier, Julian Alaphilippe, Tosh van der Sande