The pre-race favourites did their best to distance Pierre Rolland, Bart De Clercq and Maciej Paterski in stage 3 but they didn’t get enough of an advantage and still find themselves in a very difficult situation if they want to win the Volta a Catalunya. They now only have one big chance left in tomorrow’s queen stage and as they cannot allow themselves to wait until the final climb, the scene is set for a big drama.

 

The course

The first three stages have had lots of climbs but for the main riders, they have not been hard enough to make a real selection. Tomorrow they will get their biggest chance to make a difference. For the second year in a row, La Molina will play host to a big summit finish in the Pyrenees and as it is the only mountain stage in the 2015 edition, it will be the day when the climbers have to do some damage and when the race will probably be decided.

 

The stage is almost identical to stage 3 of last year’s race as the main changes come in the first part. However, the organizers have also shortened the flat section between the two final climbs to make things a bit tougher. At 188.4km, it is longer than it was 12 months ago and brings the riders from Tona to the summit of the La Molina climb. As it is often the case in the Catalonian race, the riders start the stage by doing a lap of a small circuit. Like in the past stages, the 10.5km are completely flat and then it is time for the riders to start their long northerly journey to the Pyrenees.

 

The first part of the stage is completely flat and the highlight is the intermediate sprint which comes at the 31.3km mark. A little later, the climbing hostilities start when the riders hit the category 1 Alt de Bracons (10.5km, 4.9%, max. 12%). A fast descent leads back to a flat section as the riders pass through the city of Olot which hosted the finish of stage 2 and contest the final intermediate sprint before they hit the final part which is almost identical to last year’s stage.

 

First the riders hit the category 1 Alt de Coubet (10km, 5.5%, max. 10%) which summits at the 90.6km mark. From the top, the riders follow a rather easy and gradual descent back to the valley and the city of Ripoll where they continue their westerly journey along slightly ascending roads. The truly brutal part of the stage starts just after the city of Gombren when 63.1km still remain.

 

The riders now go up the only HC climb of the race, the Alt de la Creueta (21km, 4.5%, max. 9%). The top comes 42.1km from the finish and the riders will now do a short descent before going up to La Molina. Here they pass the finish line from the opposite direction to start the long descent to the city of Alp.

 

Last year the riders now did a loop of a flat circuit in the valley before they returned to Alp and started the final climb. This year they will simply turn around immediately to head back up the road they had previously been descending to do the category 1 climb up to the finish in La Molina. The actual climb is only 5.3km long with an average gradient of 5.8% and maximum ramps 9% but it is uphill for a little bit longer. The change means that the penultimate climb is now located 21km closer to the finish than it was in 2014.

 

The final climb is a bit deceptive as the top actually comes with 1km to go. Then next 500m are slightly downhill before the road again kicks up with an average gradient of 3% for the final 500m. There’s a hairpin bend in the penultimate kilometre and another one which comes just as the riders pass the flamme rouge. Then there’s a sharp left-hand turn with 500m to go before the riders do a sweeping U-turn that leads onto the 50m finishing straight.

 

Last year Joaquim Rodriguez showed that he is perfectly suited to this climb when he first responded to Chris Froome’s many attacks before he made one of his trademark accelerations to win the stage with a 5-second advantage over Alberto Contador while Nairo Quintana followed four seconds later. However, no less than 48 riders finished within a minute of the stage winner which says a lot about the easy nature of the climb. In 2001, a Vuelta a Espana stage finished here and it was Santiago Blanco who won from a breakaway while only Jose Maria Jimenez managed to escape on the final ascent, finishing 4 seconds ahead of an 18-rider group that contained all the main contenders.

 

 

The weather

It is always risky business to send the riders into the high mountains at this time of the year and the Volta a Catalunya have had lots of dramatic and cold stages in the last few years. This time they seem to have luck on their side as the bad weather that has plagued the first part of the race has disappeared in time for the big stage.

 

The riders will take the start under a beautiful sunny sky but as the day goes on, more clouds are set to appear. Towards the end of the stage, there is a risk of showers which will fall as snow at the finish in La Molina but luckily it seems that the riders will finish the stage before the snow is expected to set in. It will be a pretty cold day in the Pyrenees and the temperature at the bottom of the final climb will reach a maximum of only 1 degree.

 

There will be a light wind from northwesterly direction and it will pick up a bit towards the end of the stage. This means that the riders will first have a cross-headwind before the turn into a direct headwind for the main climb of the Alt de la Crueta. After they have turned around, the riders will have a tailwind on the final climb to La Molina.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage turned out to be much more dramatic than anyone would have expected. It was no surprise to see Tinkoff-Saxo take the bulls by the horn and try to make the race as hard as possible and their main goal probably was to distance Pierre Rolland and Bart De Clercq. They would probably never have expected to get rid of Alejandro Valverde too but the Movistar leader continued his impressive string of bad luck in this race. In 2012 and 2013, he crashed out of contention and today he again had a tumble that will make it very hard for him to win the race.

 

Valverde’s crash ended up being a blessing for Rolland who suddenly had a strong ally in his hard chase behind the front group and this helped limit his losses massively. The Frenchman now finds himself in the perfect position to win this race and if he can get safely through tomorrow, only the final stage in Barcelona poses a small threat for the stylish Europcar lader.

 

The fact that Rolland goes into this stage with such a big lead means that we can expect a hugely dramatic stage. Prior to the race, the main riders would probably have planned just to battle it out for the overall victory on the final climb but there is no chance that they will be able to gain enough time on Rolland on such a short ascent. They need to come out with all guns blazing already on the penultimate climb and then they need to cooperate well to distance the race leader on the subsequent descent before they can finally battle it out on the final climb.

 

This will have a big impact on the way the stage will pan out and we will probably have a very fast start to the race. Due to the long descent after the penultimate climb, the likes of Tinkoff-Saxo, Astana, Cannondale-Garmin, Sky, Etixx-QuickStep and Movistar all want to have a rider in the early break as he would potentially be able to help in between the two major ascents. This means that a huge tactical battle will go on in the early part and Europcar will have to be on their toes to control the situation.

 

The many attacks mean that the race could still be together when they hit the first climb and this would be the worst scenario for Europcar. The French team is not very strong and it will be impossible for them to control what happens on that ascent. This means that the major teams may all be able to send key riders up the road on that ascent.

 

When the break has taken off, Europcar are likely to hit the front but on the climbs, the main teams will take over. Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo both have very strong teams for this race and they need to make this race as hard as possible. Like today, we can expect them to ride tempo on every ascent and this will make it impossible for the early break to stay away. As they need the bonus seconds to come into play, they simply have to catch the early escapees.

 

The stage will culminate on the Alt de la Crueta where we can expect the likes of Alberto Contador, Alejandro Valverde and Richie Porte to attack. The climb is very long but not very steep and it suits Rolland pretty well. Furthermore, there will be a headwind which is another big advantage for the lanky Frenchman.

 

However, today’s stage proved that Rolland is not able to stay with the best even on pretty mellow gradients and we expect him to get dropped on this climb. Then it all comes down to the level of cooperation among the pre-race favourites. If they can work well together, they may distance Rolland sufficiently but if the race leader is back by the time they reach the bottom of the final climb, Europcar will win the race.

 

In the end, the GC riders will of course have to battle it out on the final climb where they both have to distance each other and keep Rolland at bay. That’s a pretty tricky situation and could set the scene for some very tactical racing. One has to remember that the final climb is not very steep and doesn’t have any very difficult sections. This means that it will be hard for the best climbers to distance each other – just as they were unable to do so in today’s stage.

 

Today Alejandro Valverde had an incredible amount of bad luck. With his time loss, it will be very hard for him to win the race overall but he can still add another big stage win to his palmares. Tomorrow’s stage is tailor-made for him as the big climb makes it too hard for the punchy classics specialists while the final ascent is perfectly suited to an explosive climber like him.

 

Valverde may have crashed in today’s stage but he looked very strong when he single-handedly managed to reduce the distance to the leaders. Even though he hasn’t been at the same level as he was 12 months ago, he seems to be riding really well at the moment. We don’t think that anyone will be able to distance the Movistar leader who didn’t suffer any major injuries in his crash.

 

Of course there is the issue of whether he will have recovered from today’s big workload but his main challenge will be to keep things together for the final kilometre. Today Domenico Pozzovivo managed to exploit the tactical battle and in the past Valverde has lost many victories in a similar manner. He will probably have to chase down many attacks by himself but if it comes down to a battle between the favourites in the final kilometre, no one is going to beat Valverde.

 

His biggest rival is Rigoberto Uran. The Colombian is riding really well at the moment and didn’t seem to be under pressure in today’s stage. Among the GC riders, he is one of the fastest in a sprint and he is perfectly suited to this kind of short, punchy climb.

 

It will be hard for Uran to beat Valverde in this kind of punchy finale but we still have some doubts about the Movistar leader. If he is not at 100%, Valverde may get dropped before the finale and in that case Uran will be the man to beat.

 

Richie Porte looked very strong in today’s stage where he confirmed the good impression he had given in Paris-Nice. When the Australian launched his big attack, Alberto Contador seemed to be at his limit and it indicates that Porte is currently the strongest climber in this race.

 

Porte is not perfectly suited to this kind of punchy climb and it will be hard for him to get rid of rivals but if anyone is to just ride away from everyone else, Porte is the most likely to do. Furthermore, he is less marked than Contador and this makes it easier for him to exploit the tactical battle in the finale.

 

Alberto Contador tried to attack several times in today’s stage but he never managed to get clear. In fact, he seemed to be a bit under pressure when Porte attacked a little later and like in Tirreno, it seems that he is not at 100%. Furthermore, he is heavily marked and is not suited to this kind of punchy climb. It will probably be hard for him to drop everybody else which he needs to do to win this stage. On paper, however, only Chris Froome is a better climber than Contador and so a win for the Spaniard is definitely still a possibility.

 

This year Domenico Pozzovivo has confirmed his steady progress and he is now among the very best climbers. Today he never appeared to be in difficulty on the climb and he made use of some wily tactic to come away with a rare win. He may not be a very explosive climber but he usually does pretty well on this kind of short ascents and he won’t be as heavily marked as Contador and Porte. If the favourites look too much at each other, he may take another win.

 

Today Daniel Martin did reasonably well but it was also evident that he is not at the level of the best climbers in this race. However, he is not far off the mark and like today he may benefit from the tactical battle. We don’t think that he will be able to follow the best but if they can’t get rid of each other, he may get back in contention. With his fast sprint, he has a chance to beat the likes of Uran and Valverde in a sprint.

 

Today we didn’t really get a chance to see what Esteban Chaves could do against the favourites as he was caught behind the split in the finale. Last year, however, the Colombian proved that he is able to match the very best in the mountains and this kind of short ascent suits him pretty well. He won’t be heavily marked and if he launches a late attack, it will be very hard to bring him back.

 

Today Fabio Aru was slightly below the level of the best climbers but he managed to stay with the best. Tomorrow’s climb doesn’t suit him at all but the Italian has often proved that he knows how to time his attacks. In that way, he won two stages of last year’s Vuelta a Espana and he may again capitalize on a tactical battle between the strongest riders.

 

Rafael Valls looked very strong in the chase group and like Chaves, he never got the chance to test himself against the best riders in this race. He lost a bit of time and is now out of the battle for the overall victory. The Spaniard has been climbing really well all year and was one of the strongest in Paris-Nice where he was even having some health issues. Tomorrow he could take another big win if he attacks in the finale.

 

Jurgen Van Den Broeck had a disappointing Tirreno-Adriatico but today he looked very strong. Like Valverde, he worked hard in the chase group and as he proved in last year’s Dauphiné he is still one of the best climbers in the world. Today he didn’t wait for De Clercq and as he is unlikely to do so tomorrow, he will have the chance to play his own card which could see him take a very rare victory.

 

Giampaolo Caruso has a rare chance to lead Katusha in this race and he hopes to capitalize on that opportunity tomorrow. The Italian is an excellent climber and perfectly suited to this kind of short ascent. He has the right aggressive mindset which could pay off in a tactical finale.

 

Today Diego Rosa confirmed his huge progress when he split the main group to pieces. He will mainly be expected to work for Aru but as Astana are unlikely to do too much work, the Italian may be allowed to play his own card. He is clearly one of the best climbers in the race and as he won’t be heavily marked, he may get the chance to take a win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Rigoberto Uran, Richie Porte

Outsiders: Alberto Contador, Domenico Pozzovivo, Daniel Martin, Esteban Chaves

Jokers: Fabio Aru, Rafael Valls, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Giampaolo Caruso, Diego Rosa