While everybody had their eyes on Pierre Rolland, Bart De Clercq stole the headlines when he took the leader’s jersey after a great ride in the queen stage. The pre-race favourites have no major opportunity to distance the Belgian and so they need to give it a try on the final climb in tomorrow’s tricky stage 5 which could be a day for a breakaway.

 

The course

After the big battle between the GC riders in the Pyrenees, it is back into flatter terrain as the riders leave the high mountains to head back towards the coast and the traditional finish in Valls that is back on the course for the third year in a row.

 

The 195.4km stage starts in the city of Alp at the bottom of the La Molina climb but unlike in the previous stage, the riders won’t venture into the high mountains. Instead, they will travel along gradual descending roads in a westerly direction before they contest the first intermediate sprint after 38.6km of racing. Then they will head south as they continue to descend out of the Pyrenean area.

 

In the city of Oliana, the riders reach flat roads which they will follow for most of the remaining part of the stage. Along the way, they will contest the final intermediate sprint after 103.4km of racing and then they reach the city of Guissona with 72.9km to go. From here, the course is completely identical to the one they had for last year’s fifth stage.

 

The flat roads are followed by a gradual uphill stretch to the city of Belltall and then the riders do the final part of the descent back to the coast. Instead of following the flat roads to Valls, however, the organizers have decided to follow a more straight line to the finish that send them up the only major climb of the day. The category 2 Alt de Lilla (4.1km, 4.8%, max. 7%) is a nasty little sting in the tail after a very long day in the saddle.

 

From the top, only 10.1km remain and they are almost all downhill, with the riders reaching the bottom just 3.4km from the line. However, the downhill is mostly on a long straight road that doesn't offer any real technical difficulties and it will be much easier for the peloton than for any escapees to keep a high pace in this section.

 

The stage ends on flat roads but the finish is a bit technical. 1.5km from the line, the riders turn left in a roundabout and 300m later they go straight through another. Then they turn right in another one 400m down the road. It is immediately followed by a right-hand turn that leads to the final 90-degree left-hand turn just 600m from the line and the riders will even have to go straight through a roundabout just 100m from the finish. The road is slightly rising from 1500m to 1000m to go and then descends for the next 500m. The final 500m are ascending at an average gradient of 1%.

 

With the stage having featured on the course two years in a row, everybody knows what to expect from this stage. The final climb is one of the final chances for the GC riders to try to make a difference and history proves that they have often tested each other. However, the final climb is not hard enough to make a difference and the last two editions of this stage have both ended in reduced bunch sprints. Last year the many attacks made for some very fast racing and the riders had passed the halfway point before a break finally went clear.

 

In the end, a little less than 100 riders arrived at the finish and it was Luka Mezgec who beat Julian Alaphilippe and Samuel Dumoulin in the sprint. In 2013 Simon Gerrans won the stage he had targeted by beating Gianni Meersman in the sprint.

 

 

The weather

After the rainy start to the race, the riders can expect beautiful sunshine for the final part of the race. That will again be the case in stage 5. There will be a few clouds but mostly there will be plenty of room for the sun to keep the riders warm. The temperature will reach a maximum of a very pleasant 18 degrees.

 

However, it will be pretty windy as a strong wind will be blowing from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind until the reach the first intermediate sprint and then it will be a cross-tailwind for the final part of the stage. In the finale, the riders will turn from a tailwind into a crosswind with 1.5km to go. Then there’s a short tailwind section after the flamme rouge before it will again be a crosswind on the 600m finishing straight.

 

The favourites

As Bart De Clercq had suffered in stage 3, most had their eyes on Pierre Rolland In today’s queen stage. However, the longer climbs suited a pure climber like De Clercq much better than the punchy ascents from yesterday’s stage and he never seemed to be in any big trouble in the finale. With a great ride, he limited his losses sufficiently to take the overall lead and so it was only a partly accomplished mission for Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo when they distanced Rolland on the penultimate climb.

 

De Clercq now leads Porte by 21 seconds which is a significant time hap and unlike the likes of Dan Martin, Rigoberto Uran and Alejandro Valverde who are further back, the Australian has no real chance to pick up bonus seconds in the three remaining stages. Hence, the Sky leader will desperately looking for opportunities to distance De Clercq but he won’t found much terrain to his liking.

 

His biggest chance comes on the tricky finishing circuit in Barcelona on the final day as the explosive nature of the Montjuic ascent doesn’t suit De Clercq very well. The flat finish to stage 6 means that only the wind can potentially do some damage on Saturday but Porte may have a small chance in tomorrow’s stage.

 

In the past, the GC riders have always tested each other on the Alt de Lilla but the best climbers have never been able to distance each other. However, they have often been able to create some small gaps and as the climb doesn’t suit De Clercq very well, the Belgian may get into difficulty in the finale. The chance to gain time is not very big but it is definitely a possible scenario and so we are guaranteed to see some attacks.

 

However, the GC riders are unlikely to win the stage which can either be won by a fast finisher or an early escapee. In the two latest edition of this stage, it has come back together for a bunch sprint but tomorrow there is a very big chance that a breakaway will make it.

 

Sprinters like Caleb Ewan and Matteo Pelucchi have both left the race and Luka Mezgec had a difficult day in today’s stage. As the sprinters will all be uncertain about their ability to get over the final climb, most of them will prefer to save energy for Saturday’s flat stage. The first two stages have shown that the sprint teams are unwilling to do much work in this race and we would be pretty surprised if they do anything to catch the early break.

 

Only three teams could potentially work for a sprint. Europcar, Movistar and Etixx-QuickStep all have very fast riders in this race. However, the latter two are mostly focused on the GC and are unlikely to be too concerned about the sprints. Bryan Coquard may be in excellent condition but Europcar cannot be sure that he will survive the final climb.

 

Furthermore, the GC riders will prefer the early break to stay away. If they manage to distance De Clercq on the final climb, it will be important that he doesn’t get any help from the sprint teams. If the stage win is still up for grabs, Lotto Soudal can expect to be supported by the teams of the fast riders. If the escapees have taken the stage, however, that won’t be the case. Hence, teams like Tinkoff-Saxo and Sky have no interest in bringing back the race.

 

Everybody knows that a break has a very big chance in this stage and so we can expect a very fast start to the stage. With gradually descending roads and a tailwind for most of the stage, it should be a very fast stage. Last year it took more than 100km for the break to be established and it may take similarly long time in 2015.

 

When the break finally gets clear, Lotto Soudal will probably hit the front but they have no interest in catching the break. It remains to be seen whether the sprint teams will take control but as that is unlikely to happen, we expect the break to stay away. The biggest danger for the escapees come from the teams that have missed out who may decide to organize a chase. However, they still have a few opportunities left and as the final stage could also be one for a breakaway, they are most likely to save their energy for later.

 

In the final part of the stage, we expect Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo to come to the fore and they will probably set a fast pace in the hard sections to make the race tough. On the final climb, we can expect some attacks from the GC riders and we wouldn’t be surprised if they manage to distance De Clercq. However, they need to work very well together to stay away on the descent which doesn’t suit attackers and as a rather big group usually makes it over this climb, there should be plenty of firepower to bring the pre-race favourites back. Hence, De Clercq is unlikely to lose any time tomorrow.

 

As said, we expect a breakaway to stay away but in this kind of stage, it is a bit of a lottery to pick the riders who will make it. The easy start to the stage means that most of the riders can get into the move. However, the difficult finale means that you need a solid pair of climbing legs to finish it off and a fast sprint is definitely no disadvantage either.

 

A rider who has all the skills to excel in this terrain, is Enrico Gasparotto. The Wanty rider is building form for the Ardennes classics and he has looked very strong in the first stages. Yesterday he finished in the second big group and today he lost so much time that he is no longer a GC threat.

 

Gasaparotto is hugely experienced and will definitely do his utmost to hit the right breakaway. If he makes the move, he will be very hard to drop on the final climb. Furthermore, he has a very fast sprint which means that he has all the skills to finish it off. Even if it comes back together for a sprint, he will have a shot which makes him an obvious winner candidate.

 

The same goes for Julian Alaphilippe whose potential seems to be unlimited. After a slow start to the year, he has clearly reached a very good condition for this race and yesterday he hung onto the best for a very long time. Uran is no longer likely to win this race and so the in-form Frenchman may be allowed to go on the attack. He is a very good climber, a fantastic descender and a great sprinter which means that this stage suits him down to the ground. If it comes down to a sprint, he will also be among the favourites.

 

Jonathan Hivert had a bad 2014 season but after he has joined Bretagne, he seems to have found his legs. He finished with the Valverde group in stage 3 and he is no longer in GC contention. He has lots of experience in hitting the right break and he is both a good climber and a fast finisher. Like Gasparotto and Alaphilippe, he will also be a contender in a sprint finish as he has done some very good sprints in this race.

 

Kevin Reza has made this race his big goal as he hopes to get the chance to do some sprints from a reduced group. He may get the chance tomorrow but he will probably need to go on the attack to win the stage. However, he is in excellent condition as he proved in stage 3 and even though he is a big guy, he climbs pretty well. In the past, he has mixed it up with the best in bunch sprints and from a breakaway, he weill be hard to beat.

 

Diego Rosa has been incredibly strong since he joined Astana and yesterday he made the group of favourites explode on the final climb. Fabio Aru is no longer a winner candidate and he may now get the freedom to attack. He is not very fast in a sprint but he has a decent kick and he has proved that he is among the best climbers in this race.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas has two options in this stage. He can both wait for the sprint and he can go on the attack. Movistar usually ride aggressively in these stages and he may be allowed to give it a try from afar. He may be known as a sprinter but he is an excellent climber too and if he makes the break, he will be one of the favourites.

 

If it comes down to a sprint, our favourite is Bryan Coquard. The Frenchman has been climbing really well in his last few races and the final climb should not be too tough for the in-form Frenchman. On paper, he is probably the fastest rider in this race alongside Luka Mezgec but he usually struggles a bit in the fight for position. In a smaller group, he will have a bigger chance and this makes him a contender.

 

Alejandro Valverde proved his skills in a bunch sprint in stage 2 and if it comes back together for a sprint, he may give it another try. Despite his skills as a climber, he is one of the fastest riders and he is excellent at positioning himself. If the GC riders manage to distance De Clercq on the final climb and a very small group arrives at the finish, he will be the obvious favourite.

 

Tejay van Garderen is out of GC contention and BMC now plan to ride aggressively in the final part of this race. This could open the door for young Dylan Teuns to give it a go. The Belgian is a huge talent who matched the best on the climbs in last year’s Tour of Britain. He may not be the fastest finisher but he could be strong enough to distance his breakaway companions on the final climb.

 

Another in-form talent is Petr Vakoc. The Czech grew to fame when he won a stage at last year’s Tour de Pologne and he would love to repeat that performance here. He has been climbing really well in this race and he has a solid sprint to finish it off.

 

Another big talent is Pavel Kochetkov who defied expectation when he finished in the Valverde group in stage 3. The Russian has a huge potential and is clearly climbing really well. As he is also a fast sprinter, he is a great pick for this stage.

 

Finally, last year’s winner Luka Mezgec deserves a mention. The Slovenian crashed in Tirreno-Adriatico and as he has also been ill, he is not in his best condition. He had a terrible day in the queen stage and we don’t think that he has the condition to follow the best on the climb. On paper, however, this stage suits him really well and if he has recovered, he is clearly one of the fastest riders.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Enrico Gasparotto (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Julian Alaphilippe (breakaway or sprint), Jonathan Hivert ((breakaway or sprint)

Outsiders: Kevin Reza (breakaway or sprint), Diego Rosa, Jose Joaquin Rojas (breakaway or sprint), Bryan Coquard (sprint), Alejandro Valverde (sprint)

Jokers: Dylan Teuns (breakaway), Petr Vakoc (breakaway), Pavel Kochetkov (breakaway), Julien Simon (breakaway or sprint), Luka Mezgec (sprint)