The Volta a Catalunya has usually had several options for fast riders who can climb but this year the sprinters have had very few opportunities in the Spanish race. However, the GC battle will be put temporarily on hold in tomorrow’s stage 6 which should offer the fast finishers a big chance to sprint for the win if they can bring back the many attackers who are likely to animate the first part of the stage.

 

The course

The pre-race favourites are all hoping that they will be able to create a surprise in the hilly final stage but first they have to get through the penultimate stage. On paper it has the easiest finale of all stages and even though it includes a significant climb along the way, it should allow the sprinters a final chance to shine.

 

The stage brings the riders over 194.1km from Cervera to PortAventura and will see the riders finish their journey back to the Mediterranean coast. The first part of the stage consists of a long southwesterly run along rolling roads, with the highlight being the first intermediate sprint which comes at the 20.6km mark. Instead of going straight to the finishing city, however, the riders pass through a hilly area that will see them go up the category 1 Alt de Prades (11km, 4%, max. 6%). The summit comes with 106.3km to go and is followed by long, gradually descending roads until it again becomes flat for a few kilometres.

 

The riders have now turned around and are heading towards the coast in a southeasterly direction. Before they can catch their first glimpse of the sea, they have to go up the category 3 Alt del Coli Roig (3.7km, 5%, max. 6%) whose summit comes with 40.2km to go. Then they descend for a few kilometres and contest the final intermediate sprint with 24.7km to go. From there the roads are completely flat as the riders complete their journey to the sea.

 

The finale is not too complicated as the riders will go straight through 3 roundabouts before the turn left in the roundabout just before the flamme rouge. From here, there are no major turns as the road only bends gradually to the right before the riders get to the 600m finishing straight. The final 500m are descending at a gradient of 2%.

 

PortAventura hasn’t hosted a stage finish in recent years.

 

 

The weather

After a rainy start to the race, sprint has arrived in Spain and the riders couldn’t have wished for a more beautiful end to the event. Saturday will be a day with beautiful sunshine and the temperature will reach a maximum of an impressive 23 degrees.

 

Furthermore, it will be less windy than it has been in recent days as a moderate wind will be blowing from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind for most of the day. As they approach the final category 3 climb, they will turn into a short cross-tailwind section before they will face a tailwind for most of the final part of the stage. In the finale, there will be a short crosswind section before the riders again turn into a tailwind. With 2km to go, the riders turn into a crosswind for most of the final part of the stage, including the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Crosswinds have often made for some dramatic racing in Spain and today the race was turned on its head when the combination of wind and some aggressive racing by the GC riders took Bart De Clercq out of contention for the overall win. This means that the pre-race favourites will no longer have to get rid of the Belgian and they can focus on their internal battle which is a close one as they are still separated by seconds.

 

However, they will probably have to postpone the fight until Sunday as tomorrow’s stage is not suited to creating many differences. There is a big climb at the midpoint and a small category 3 climb in the finale but with a long flat final stretch, they prefer to save their energy for the tricky finishing circuit in Barcelona on the final day.

 

However, they will again have to be aware of the windy conditions. However, the wind won’t be as strong as it has been in recent day and as they will mainly have a cross-headwind, it is unlikely to be a day to make a big attack. The only danger comes in the crosswind section just before the final climb and here they all have to be on their toes. However, we doubt that it will be strong enough to split the peloton but it will definitely set the scene for some nervous racing.

 

Instead, the stage is likely to be one for the sprinters. The Volta a Catalunya has usually had lots of opportunities for the kind of sprinters who are at the Spanish race but this year they have only had a chance in stage 2. They are all hugely frustrated and they now know that they only have one chance to go for glory.

 

The two big-name sprinters in the race are Bryan Coquard and Luka Mezgec and they know that tomorrow has to be their day. However, they won’t have it their way. There aren’t many sprinters in the race and until now, the sprint teams have not done a lot of chasing. Furthermore, the hilly terrain means that many riders know that a breakaway has a chance and so they will be keen to put the sprint teams under pressure. Last year the easiest stage also came on the penultimate day and back then the sprint teams failed to catch the breakaway, with Stef Clement soloing clear to take a surprise win.

 

This means that we can expect another very fast start to the stage and it will probably take some time for the early break to get formed. Giant-Alpecin and Europcar have to be on their toes to make sure that the group is not too big and strong.

 

The outcome of the stage will depend on the composition of the break and if a strong group gets clear, it may stay away. Giant-Alpecin are down to just 6 riders and Europcar have also lost a rider. The hilly terrain is definitely not easy and it could be a day for a breakaway.

 

On the other hand, this is the final chance for the sprinters and Lampre-Merida may also be interested in a sprint. Furthermore, the stage doesn’t have an obvious favourite and so some of the teams with reasonably fast finishers that have missed the break, may also lend a hand. With the wind also making the peloton nervous, we expect it to come back together for a sprint but the sprint teams have to make sure that the escape doesn’t get a big gap.

 

If the winner will be found in a bunch kick, our favourite is Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian won three stages in this race last year and on paper, he and Coquard are the fastest riders here. He went into the race with some uncertainty as he had been ill and crashed out of Tirreno-Adriatico. He has had some tough days but he showed reasonable condition by making it into the lead group in the difficult stage 2.

 

While Coquard usually suffers in the fight for position, Mezgec is great at positioning himself. Last year he proved that he can win sprint without a big lead-out and that is a clear advantage in a race without any sprint trains. If he manages to start his sprint ahead of Coquard, he will be very hard to beat.

 

However, Coquard remains a formidable opponent. The Frenchman is in great condition and showed his incredible speed in Paris-Nice where he did an amazing sprint in stage 5. On paper, he has the speed to match Mezgec but it remains to be seen whether he can position himself.

 

Coquard is very bad at getting into position and in this race he doesn’t have his usual lead-out men at his side. This means that he will be left to fend for himself and this could be a big setback. In the first sprint in this race, he had to come from far back and if that is again the case, it will be hard for him to win.

 

Alejandro Valverde is still hoping that he can win this race and he is now just 16 seconds behind Porte. Bonus seconds could be enough for him to take the victory and he could take a big step by winning this stage. In stage 2, he proved that he has the speed to win the bunch kicks in this race and he may decide to give it a go tomorrow.

 

Valverde’s big advantage is that he is great at positioning himself and not many riders are faster than him. It would be no surprise to see Movistar making the race hard for the sprinters before they deliver their captain to another win. However, the downhill finish doesn’t suit him very well.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas has been sprinting better than ever in 2015 and he was very close to the win in stage 2. The Spaniard has proved to be in excellent condition and his speed is clearly at the highest level after he won a big bunch sprint in the Tour of Qatar.

 

Rojas is used to handling the sprint finales on his own and this is an advantage in a race with no lead-out trains. Being one of the fastest riders in the peloton, he will be one of the favourites but he may have to work for Valverde.

 

Roberto Ferrari hasn’t won a race in Lampre-Merida colours but he has a great chance in this race. He has shown great condition as he has been climbing really well and he is one of the fastest riders in this field. He is excellent at positioning himself and the downhill finale should suit him well. He would have preferred a more technical finale but he is clearly among the favourites.

 

The only team that has managed to organize a real lead-out is Etixx-QuickStep. Julian Alaphilippe is no pure sprinter but he has a great turn of speed. Petr Vakoc has delivered him perfectly in the first sprints and if he can do so again, it could make the difference in a race where no other team is likely to dominate.

 

Boris Vallee rarely gets a chance to sprint for himself but in this race he is the fastest Lotto Soudal rider. Until now, the stages have been too hard for him but tomorrow he should be there in the finale. He can rely on Tosh van der Sande and Greg Henderson to set him up and this is probably the best lead-out of the race. Vallee could take his first professional victory in a WorldTour race.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Jonathan Hivert is no pure sprinter but he has been sprinting really well in this race. The usual sprinter Armindo Fonseca doesn’t seem to be at 100% and so he may get his chance again tomorrow. This stage doesn’t really suit him very well but he has shown an amazing turn of speed in the first sprints.

 

Trek have two sprinters in this race and it remains to be seen whether they will be riding for Fabio Silvestre and Jasper Stuyven. On paper, the latter is the fastest but he went into the race on the back of a crash and made it clear that he would try to ease into the race. However, he should now be ready to go and he should be among the fastest in this race.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE were hoping to set up Ewan for the sprint in this stage but the youngster has left the race. This could open the door for Brett Lancaster. The Australian is no pure sprinter but this kind of long downhill drag should suit him pretty well. He can rely on Sam Bewley to set him up and this could allow him to take a rare top result.

 

Lorenzo Manzin is an exciting neo-pro who has suffered in the first part of this race. Tomorrow, however, he may be able to get to the finish with the best and he has the speed to win these sprints. He can rely on Kevin Reza to set him up in the finale and if he can start his sprint from a good position, he may take the win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Luka Mezgec

Other winner candidates: Bryan Coquard, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Jose Joaquin Rojas, Roberto Ferrari, Julian Alaphilippe, Boris Vallee

Jokers: Jonathan Hivert, Jasper Stuyven Fabio Silvestre, Brett Lancaster, Lorenzo Manzin, Leonardo Duque, Carlos Barbero, Enrico Gasparotto (breakaway), Maciej Paterski (breakaway)