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Starting at 13.10 you can follow the time trial in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live

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NEWS
04.09.2013 @ 13:15 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

There will be no gentle resumption following today's well-earned rest day. The GC riders will get straight into action in the race's only individual time trial that is set to have a major impact on the GC. The Vuelta organizers have favoured the climbers by designing a hilly course but the major climb should not be hard enough to rule out the big time trial specialists Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara who have both set their sights on tomorrow's stage win. Starting at 13.10 CEST you can follow the stage in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

After a well-deserved rest day, the GC riders would have wished a more gentle resumption of the race. The race resumes with the only time trial which takes place just south of Tarazona. The distance is not overly long and the climbers will be happy that they will not have to contend with a flat route for the specialists. Instead, the riders will be sent onto a hilly course that has some similarities with last year's only time trial won by Fredrik Kessiakoff ahead of Alberto Contador. On that occasion climbers Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez defended themselves well by taking 4th and 7th respectively, and they hope to make a similar performance this year.

 

The first 9km are all slightly uphill as the riders head from Tarazona to the bottom of the category 3 Alto del Moncayo (9km, 4,1%). At the top, the riders head back towards Tarazona and the final 20,8km are mostly downhill but interrupted by a 10km stretch that is almost flat. The stage finishes with a fast downhill section which leads to the flamme rouge while the final kilometre contains a small hill, subsequent descent and a sharp corner 400m from the line. The stage is not overly technical and the final part should suit the more powerful riders well. On the other hand, the climbers will benefit from the first part and while the climb is not very difficult, it should allow the uphill specialists to minimize their losses in their feared discipline.

 

The weather

The riders have left Andalusia and its baking heat but the northwestern city of Tarazona still offers warm conditions for tomorrow's stage. Once again, there will be bright sunshine the entire day and the temperatures are expected to reach the 27-degree mark towards the end of the time trial.

 

The wind and changing conditions may play a crucial role in a time trial and could do so again tomorrow. There will be a moderate wind from a southwestern direction, turning to a western direction and picking up as the day goes on. This means that the early starters will mostly have a crosswind while the later riders will have long tailwind sections on the climb and mostly face a headwind on the descent. The start and finish are located close to each other and so the increasing wind will not play an overly important role but depending on exposure of the roads may give an advantage to either the early or the later starters.

 

The favourites

The Vuelta organizers have made a definite decision that their race is one for the climbers. They have not only limited the number of time trialing kilometres to a minimum, they have also designed a course that favours the uphill specialists. The course is very similar to the one used for last year's timed event as that race also had a climb at the midpoint and had a similar length. Last year's ascent was slightly steeper and slightly longer but not too different from the Alto del Moncayo. The descent was more technical and thus favoured the time triallists less than tomorrow's very easy downhill section.

 

Last year's stage was dominated by the climbers and GC riders. Fredrik Kessiakoff who excels in hilly time trials, beat Alberto Contador, Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde and Benat Intxausti into the minor placings while time triallists Tony Martin, Jonathan Castroviejo and Lars Boom finished a distant 11th, 10th and 18th respectively. None of the GC riders are real specialists and they all hope to see a similar outcome of tomorrow's stage.

 

However, we expect tomorrow's stage to be won by either Tony Martin or Fabian Cancellara. The climb is not steep and very regular and so rhythm and pacing is more important than climbing and acceleration. The fast descent into a headwind clearly favours the powerful specialists and they will be able to gain much time on their tiny rivals on the way back to Tarazona. Compared to last year's course, the non-technical nature is a clear advantage for the time trial specialists.

 

Tony Martin has been almost unbeatable in the time trials this year. He had a difficult 2012 season where he never found the legs that allowed him to completely dominate his favourite discipline in 2011. This year he has, however, been back to his best and he has only been defeated twice: in the Tour de Romandie mountain prologue and in the very hilly final Tour de France time trial.

 

There is no doubt that Martin would have preferred a flatter course for tomorrow's stage but the one chosen is not too bad either. He has won hillier and more technical time trials in the past and his below-par showing last year was more a symptom of a generally bad season than his real ability on this kind of route. As a GC contender in week-long stage races and former Paris-Nice winner, Martin is no bad climber and the steady, regular gradient suits him well. He may not have the fastest time at the top of the climb but he should be able to gain plenty of time on the power descent. Having seen his performance on stage 6, no one can doubt that his condition is splendid and so Martin is our favourite to win the stage.

 

He will, however, be up against Fabian Cancellara who certainly has a chance of beating his arch rival. The Swiss is in fantastic condition these days as has been evidenced by his recent climbing, aggressive showing in the sprints and massive turns in the team time trial. He hasn't beaten an injury-free Martin in a long time trial since the 2010 Tour de France and would love to do so tomorrow.

 

The days when Cancellara could beat Martin in a flat time trial are probably gone. However, it may be a different matter on hilly or technical courses. On paper, Martin is the better climber but their training has been geared towards two completely different objectives. Martin has set his sights on the completely flat worlds time trial while Cancellara is focused on the hilly road race. The Swiss hasn't been climbing better for years and may even be faster than Martin up the climb.

 

Had it been a technical decent, no one would have been able to beat Cancellara on the downhill section. However, the long straights should play into the hands of Martin and it will take a massive effort from Cancellara to beat his rival tomorrow. He may have won the Tour of Austria time trial but he was beaten by almost a minute by Bradley Wiggins in the Tour de Pologne. Recently, he hasn't put too much emphasis on the time trial and that may be costly tomorrow. However, his condition is at such a high level that it could be a very close battle between the two time trial giants.

 

Martin is not the only rider who is racing the Vuelta with the worlds time trial on his mind. Marco Pinotti is an excellent time triallist who excels on both flat and hilly courses. He has twice won the final time trial of the Giro and was in the running for a worlds medal when he crashed in last year's battle for the rainbow stripes.

 

His days as a grand tour contender are over and he has now settled into a role as domestique and time trial specialist. His 9th place finish in the Giro does, however, prove that his climbing skills are sufficient to handle tomorrow's gentle gradients and the climb may actually be an advantage for the BMC rider. A crash in the Tour Mediteraneen has forced him to play catch-up for most of the season but his 4th place behind Wiggins, Cancellara and Taylor Phinney in Poland and 2nd place behind Cancellara in Austria prove that his legs have started to come around. He may not be strong enough to beat Martin and Cancellara but a podium place should be within his reach.

 

Tanel Kangert is a versatile rider who is an excellent time triallist and climbs well. During the past two seasons, he has taken the step into the world elite in the individual discipline with his stand-out performance being his 3rd in the long, technical Giro time trial.

 

His climbing strength makes him well-suited to this difficult course. Furthermore, his legs have started to come around after a below-par start to the race and he has been Vincenzo Nibali's key mountain domestique in the Andalusian mountains. With a couple of easier stages coming up, he is probably allowed to go full gas tomorrow and so he could once again mix it up with the best in a grand tour time trial.

 

Lieuwe Westra is one of the best time triallists in the world but a question mark is lingering over his head. He crashed in the Dauphiné and suffered through the Tour. When he finally started to feel better, he fell ill and abandoned on the Champs-Elysees. Despite limited preparation, he managed to finish 8th in the hilly Eneco Tour time trial but he has had a difficult start to the Vuelta.

 

However, he is now starting to feel better and has promised to give it his all in the time trial. As a former Paris-Nice runner-up, he should handle the climbing aspect well and he will be one of the strongest on the downhill section. Had he been on top, he would be almost guaranteed of a top 5 finish but his many struggles put tomorrow's performance a bit more up in the air.

 

Vincenzo Nibali defends himself well in time trials but he is certainly no specialist. However, his Astana team has put massive resources into a dedicated effort to improve his abilities in the race against the clock and the results prove that their efforts have not been in vain. Already in the Tour de San Luis, his progress was evident and he surprised by taking a fabulous 4th in the long Giro time trial.

 

Had it been a flat time trial, he would have no chance against the specialists but this year's hilly course plays into his strength. He could very well post the fastest time on the climb but he will get into difficulty on the descent. His status as a fabulous descender won't count for much on this section where it's more about power than technical skills. However, he should not be too far off the mark and in any case, he should gain time on his main rivals.

 

Our joker pick for tomorrow is Edvald Boasson Hagen. The versatile Norwegian masters most disciplines and the time trial is no exception. He hasn't put too much emphasis on his skills in the race against the clock, often saving his energy for later in stage races, but this year he appears to have found back some of his former strength. He finished 6th in the flat Dauphiné time trial and this more difficult course should be no disadvantage. He started the race a little under-prepared due to his recent shoulder fracture but Sunday's ride proves that he getting into his best form. He won't win tomorrow's stage but a top 5 finish should be within his grasp.

 

Finally, the GC battle deserves a mention. None of the GC riders are specialists and apart from Nibali, they should all enter the stage with a defensive approach, hoping to limit their losses. Chris Horner is of course of most interest and the American faces a difficult task. He's had one standout ride in his career in the 2009 Vuelta al Pais Vasco when he won the race overall by virtue of a win in the final time trial. That was, however, on a hilly, highly irregular course that doesn't compare to tomorrow's. In flatter time trials, he has always been far off the mark. The climb will of course play into his hands and may allow him to limit his losses but Horner faces a difficult day tomorrow.

 

If Alejandro Valverde can find his legs from the Tour de France time trials, tomorrow's stage may be an asset to the Movistar captain. Joaquim Rodriguez has improved massively in his feared discipline and did surprisingly well when he finished 7th in last year's time trial and 3rd in this year's final Tour time trial. Those stages did, however, suit him better than tomorrow's and it will be a case of damage control for the Katusha captain.

 

Daniel Moreno, Nicolas Roche, Domenico Pozzovivo and Rafal Majka are all tiny climbers but they have all had good performances in time trials. Of course they will lose time to Nibali but if they can find their best legs, they should be able to limit their losses. In his pre-suspension career, Ivan Basso  was a splendid time triallist but that has changed dramatically since he came back from suspension. He may be in very good condition at the moment but things should have turned around dramatically for him to not lose a chunk of time to his rivals. The same goes for Thibaut Pinot who has improved his abilities but can expect to add a further time deficit to his team time trial loss.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Tony Martin

Winner candidates: Fabian Cancellara, Marco Pinotti

Outsiders: Tanel Kangert, Lieuwe Westra, Vincenzo Nibali

Joker: Edvald Boasson Hagen

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