The headwind was too strong to make a difference between the race favourites in today's stage but the riders will get one more chance to gain time before the race leaves the Pyrenees. Tomorrow's final day in the triptych is, however, the easiest and finishes with a rather gentle climb to the finish. Alejandro Valverde may have marked the day out as an opportunity to keep Movistar's grand tour stage win streak alive but it could also be the third consecutive day for a successful breakaway. Starting at 15.00 CEST you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

The Vuelta organizers have introduced a recent tradition of hosting three consecutive summit finishes during the penultimate weekend of the race and they will do so again this year. This hard part of the race will come to a conclusion with what should be the easiest of those three mammoth challenges and the time differences should not be too big.

At just 146,8km, the stage is a short one and takes the riders from the start in Graus back into the Pyrenees. The first 20,3km follow slightly ascending valley roads and brings the riders to the bottom of the category 3 Puerto de la Foradada (5,9km, 5,9%) which is the perfect launch pad for an early attack. The descent leads to another long stretch of slightly uphill valley roads which is followed by the category 2 Puerto de Cotefablo (12,5km, 4%). Then it's another descent and an uncategorized climb which leads to the bottom of the day's final ascent, the category 1 Aramon Formigal (15,8km, 4%, max. 9,5%).

This is not an overly difficult climb but the numbers are slightly deceptive. The first 6km consist of an easy uphill section and a rather long descent. From there, the roads get steeper with a 9,5% stretch but it once again levels out at the 9km mark. The next 3km are easy and it is the final 3,8km that may produce a difference. Having mostly a 7-8% gradient before getting slightly easier during the final kilometres, small time gaps may open up but it will more be the accumulated fatigue from three tough days of racing than the climb itself that will produce a difference.

The final 4km are rather technical with numerous sharp hairpin bends. The flamme rouge is located in the final of those and from there, the riders will have to negotiate three sharp turns before getting onto the 300m finishing straight which has a 6% gradient.

The weather

As forecasted, the weather improved towards the end of today's stage and the riders even enjoyed some sunshine for the final climb up to Peyragudes. The shift represents a permanent change back to the sunny conditions and the riders will be happy to tackle tomorrow's stage under bright sunshine.

At the start in Graus, the riders can expect temperatures of around 20 degrees and it will only get warmer as the day goes on. When the peloton gets into the mountains later in the stage, it will be slightly cooler but it in the valley in between the final two climbs, the temperatures will stay above the 20-degree mark.

There will be a light wind from a western direction which should get a little stronger as the day goes on. This means that there will be a crosswind in the early part of the stage but the riders will generally face a headwind throughout most of the stage. That will also be the case on the final climb but the riders will turn into a cross-headwind at the 4km mark. That will also be the conditions for the final sprint and this should make it much more difficult to make a difference in the finale.

The favourites

The only hard parts of the final climb are the final 3km but even those are not overly difficult. With a cross-headwind to calm things down even more, this is not a stage where the main GC riders will be able to make any difference. The next big fight will come on the Pena Cabarga with the showdown on the Angliru offering the final crucial opportunity to change the overall standings.

This means that neither Astana nor Radioshack have any interest in bringing it back together for a sprint and tomorrow could be the third day in a row when a breakaway makes it to the finish. Everybody knows this and so we can expect a fierce battle in the opening part of the stage and it will probably take more than an hour for the break finally to be established.

Having made it into the right move, the escapees cannot be too confident that they will be allowed to decide the stage winner. Movistar are proud of their track record in grand tours which shows that they have won a stage in all their three-week races since the telephone company took over as main sponsor prior to the 2011 season. Of the remaining 6 stages, two are reserved for the sprinters and the team knows that it will be difficult to win on the Angliru. This leaves them with just 3 opportunities and tomorrow's could be their biggest.

The gentle gradients on the final climb mean that a rather big 15-rider group could end up sprinting for the win and in that case, Alejandro Valverde will be the outstanding favourite. Today the team chose not to set up their captain for a repeat win in Peyragudes as the expected cold conditions made Valverde's performance uncertain and as the difficulty of the stage made it very difficult to control. Tomorrow's stage is of a completely different nature. It's very short and the first 131km are not overly difficult. That will make it much easier to control the size and composition of the early break. At the same time, Tuesday is a rest day and Wednesday offers an easier sprint stage. This means that the team can allow themselves to spend some energy tomorrow without having to be too concerned about the recovery for the nearest future.

Until now, Movistar have played it very conservatively and haven't done an awful lot of work to chase a stage win despite the fact that the first week offered their captain several genuine opportunities. However, Valverde has now realized that the overall win is beyond his reach and while a podium spot remains his major objective, he will now be even more eager to win a stage. That will give the team another incentive to chase tomorrow.

If Valverde puts his hand up for the stage win, the team will probably try to control things in the hectic opening phase. When the break is established, they will take stock of the situation. If it's realistic to bring everything back together for a sprint, they will probably try to do so. Hence, we would give the break a 40% chance of making it to the finish.

If it comes down to a final sprint, Valverde will be very difficult to beat. It's no coincidence that he won all sprints for minor places in the first week and the final 6% gradient suits him perfectly. The technical finale won't pose any big challenge and it is hard to imagine anyone beating the Spaniard in this kind of finish.

The main challenge will be to keep everything under control in the finale. Movistar tried to do so on stages 2 and 3 but were unable to accomplish their mission. Late attacks stayed away and Valverde's sprint win was only enough to give him a minor place. The team will be aided by the headwind but it will require a dedicated effort from the entire team to finally make a sprint happen. Imano lErviti and Jose Ivan Gutierrez are likely to do the hard chase work before the climb while it will be left to the climbers to keep it together in the finale. Jose Herrada has been riding strongly and Benat Intxautsi has shown encouraging signs after a difficult start as has Sylwester Szmyd. As opposed to this, Javier Moreno and Eros Chapecchi are clearly fading at the end of a hard race and they will have to improve if Movistar want to succeed in their mission.

Katusha have the two riders that are mostly likely to beat Valverde. Joaquim Rodriguez is clearly not at his Tour de France level but gave the strongest impression so far on today's stage when his attack appeared to put Vincenzo Nibali into difficulty. This may suggest that the Spaniard has improved a bit and everybody knows that he has a good punch in an uphill sprint. Had the roads been steeper, he would have been the favourite but in this kind of finish, Valverde is faster. He will have to time everything perfectly to beat his podium rival.

On paper, the rider with the best chance of beating Valverde in this kind of finish, is Daniel Moreno. He is faster than his captain Rodriguez and has won several times on such short, explosive ramps. He was in splendid condition at the start of the race but is clearly paying the price for a long season that has also included the Tour de France. However, tomorrow's finish is more about speed than climbing legs and Moreno has some of the fastest legs among the climbers. As there are bonus seconds on offer, the team may be all for Rodriguez tomorrow but if Moreno gets his chance, he could grab it with both hands.

As said, the real danger for Movistar are late attacks. The top 10 riders will probably mark each other closely and so we have to find potential escapees a little further down the rankings. Rigoberto Uran has been a mystery in this race as he has had splendid days interspersed with several bad days. On Saturday, he lost more than 20 minutes and is now out of the GC battle but today's performance proved that he is still one of the best climbers in the race. He is no danger on GC and so won't be chased down by the riders focused on the overall standings. Should he get to the finish with a couple of riders, he is very fast in this kind of uphill finish and will be difficult to beat. As said, the early break has a good chance tomorrow, and Uran would also be a likely breakaway candidate from a longer distance.

Igor Anton has been one of the most aggressive riders in the race but until now hasn't got the desired result. He has tried to attack several times in this race and is likely to do so again tomorrow if it is back together on the final climb. He may not be as strong as he was one week ago but he still has what it takes to win a stage. He could both try a late move or win from a long-distance breakaway.

Sky have lost all their GC options and it is now all about stage wins for the British super team. Luckily, one of the best breakaway riders in the peloton has ridden himself into form at the right time. Vasil Kiryienka may mostly be known as a tireless domestique but he made himself known by winning mountain stages in the Giro d'Italia from long-distance breakaways. He has been riding really well in the last two stages and will try to get into the early break tomorrow. If he accomplishes that mission, his steady, torturous pace may be too much for his rivals on the final climb.

Finally, we will pick our joker. Warren Barguil and Alexandre Geniez are both young climbers that have won stages in this race. Tomorrow may be the day for Barguil's teammate Georg Preidler. The young Austrian is no GC rider but he is a solid climber who finished 3rd on the queen stage of the Tour de Pologne by making it into the right breakaway. He has been riding well in this race so far and his team will do their utmost to put a rider in tomorrow's break. Preidler could be the man to make it.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno

Outsiders: Rigoberto Uran, Igor Anton, Vasil Kiryienka

Joker: Georg Preidler