This year's Vuelta doesn't offer the sprinters many opportunities but the fast finishers will be glad that there's a long flat stretch between the Pyrenees and the Asturian mountains. This geographical fact has forced the organizers to put the sprinters back into the spotlight for a single day. The GC riders hope to get an easy day in the saddle but have to stay careful: the roads around Burgos are famously known for the windy conditions. Starting at 15.00 CEST you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

The riders have taken a well-deserved rest day and will now leave the Pyrenees to start their journey towards Asturias and the steep climbs in the northeastern Spanish region. Such a travel is a classic part of the Vuelta route design and often includes a stop in Burgos. The roads around the big Spanish city in the Castilla y Leon region are mostly flat and so usually give the sprinters a rare opportunity in a part of the race that is often dominated by climbers. This will once again be the case this year and while many sprinters may have been tempted to leave the race before the Pyrenees, this stage and the final sprint in Madrid have offered an incentive to stay.

The stage consists of a western journey from Calahorra to Burgos and the first part of the stage is mostly flat and only contains some slightly rolling terrain. At the 109,8km mark, the riders will reach the bottom of the category 3 Alto de Pradilla (6km, 5,4%) which is followed by the category 3 Alto de Valmala (5,8km, 5,6%) 23,7km later. From the top of the latter, 49,7km of slightly descending roads follow and they offer the perfect setting for a bunch sprint.

The finish in Burgos is completely flat but extremely technical with numerous roundabouts and corners being located inside the final 10km. The final 4,7km are, however, much easier and only contain a roundabout 3,8km from the finish, two sharp corners at the 2,7km to go mark and a sweeping bend 1,5km from the line. From there, the road is completely straight, making it the most suitable stage for the sprinters.

The weather

The riders have left the Pyrenean rain behind them but they haven't returned to the summerlike conditions that characterized the first part of the race. Instead, they will race tomorrow's stage in conditions that are unusually cold for a region that is usually dominated by heat and sunshine.

At the start in Calahorra, the sky will be cloudy and the temperatures will hover around the 15-degree mark. That will be the case for most of the day and there will only be very few chances to get a glimpse of the sun on tomorrow's ride.

The GC riders had hoped for an easy stage and so will be displeased by the fact that it will be a windy day. The plains of Burgos are famously known for their strong winds and many riders have lost their Vuelta in this area. On the exposed roads, the wind will be coming from a northwestern direction in the early part of the stage before turning to a northeastern direction later in the day. This means that the riders will mostly have a cross-headwind in the first part of the stage and a cross-tailwind towards the end.  4,8km from the finish, they will turn from a section with tailwind into a headwind and the sprinters will have to deal with a wind directly in their face on the 1,5km finishing straight.

The favourites

The sprinters have fought their way through the Pyrenean cold to get the chance to sprint in Burgos and Madrid and so it is highly unlikely that it won't come to a big bunch sprint tomorrow. Being one of the often used finishing cities, Burgos carries a certain prestige and the sprinters will all love to succeed  Mark Cavendish (2010), Oscar Freire (2008), Egoi Martinez (2006), Alessandro Petacchi (2005, 2004, 2002) and Unai Etxebarria (2003) on the list of most recent winners in the city.

What makes things a little more complicated is the dramatic effect, the Pyrenean cold has had on the size of the sprint teams. Until now Garmin-Sharp, Orica-GreenEDGE, Argos-Shimano, Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Belkin and Lampre have all take the responsibility to chase on the flat stages but most of them are on their kness. Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Belkin only have 4 riders left, Oriza-GreenEDGE and Garmin-Sharp have 5 while Argos-Shimano and Lampre-Merida are better off with 8 remaining participants. As the sprint finales have all been uncontrollable and suitable to late attacks, the teams will all be keen to save a couple of guys for the lead-out and the hectic finale. This has a significant impact on the number of riders that may contribute to the chase.

Nonetheless, the sprint teams have shown great cohesion ever since Tony Martin almost denied them their chance on stage 6 and they are likely to do so again tomorrow. This should be enough for them to control the early break and so it is hard to imagine that it will not come back together.

At the same time, they will be assisted by the extreme nervousness that's going to plague tomorrow's finale. A cross-tailwind is extremely dangerous and the GC riders know that they have to stay on their toes. As a consequence, the pace will automatically be brought up and should be enough to close the final bit of the gap in the race finale.

It's hard to predict whether the wind will be strong enough to split things up. Crosswind attacks are mostly successful when they are unexpected and that won't be the case tomorrow. The wind may be strong but will not be overly fierce and so we doubt that it's going to happen. What may split the field could be the crashes that are bound to happen in a nervous peloton.

The main danger  for the sprint teams will be the late attacks that have derailed them in the past. The section between the 10 and 5km to go banners are extremely technical and it is very difficult to organize a chase on this part of the course. With the sprint teams having limited resources, this may prompt riders to try their hand. However, the final 4,8km are mostly straight and into a headwind and this will make it significantly harder to finish it off. We doubt that we will see any great finisseur action tomorrow.

Even if the peloton splits up in the wind, the race should be decided in some kind of sprint. With depleted squads and a strong headwind in the finale, it will be much more difficult for any team to dominate the finale and timing will be crucial. It is very likely that the best lead-out trains burn their matches a little bit too early and we could very well see an unorganized sprint.

A rider who thrives in those conditions is Maximiliano Richeze. Until now, the wily Argentinean has been the most consistent sprinter. He was beaten  into 2nd by Michael Matthews on stage 5 and was narrowly edged out by Michael Mørkøv 24 hours later. He proved his great condition when he finished 3rd behind Philippe Gilbert and Edvald Boasson Hagen in the hard uphill finish on stage 3 and appears to have survived the mountain stages well. Having already had a number of near-misses in the Eneco Tour, he would love to finally take the elusive victory.

What makes Richeze our favourite for tomorrow is his great positioning ability. Massimo Graziato usually brings him to the front of the peloton inside the final 5km and from there, he fends for himself, jumping for train to train. He usually ends up in the right place and that ability is reflected in his high level of consistency. In tomorrow's unorganized headwind sprint, a strong lead-out is not necessarily important as timing will be the crucial asset. It will be much easier to come from behind and that's what Richeze does best. Lampre-Merida had hoped to shine in the mountains but it may their Argentinean sprinter that gives them their stage win.

Until now, we have had much confidence in Tyler Farrar. The American has been plagued by bad luck in the finales when the Argos train was overtaken by Cancellara on stage 6 and when he punctured out of contention on stage 7. He was similarly unfortunate when the sprinters had their most recent opportunity on stage 12 when the finale was much harder than suggested by the roadbook.

Farrar has mostly started his sprints from far behind but has proved that he is probably the fastest rider in the peloton. With only 4 teammates left in the race, he will have limited support in tomorrow's finale. His final lead-out man will be Alex Rasmussen who hasn't shown the best kind of timing so far but may improve tomorrow. If the Dane manages to drop off his sprinter in the perfect position, Farrar may finally get the win that could allow to get a contract for next season.

Michael Matthews is not a rider for these kind of pure bunch sprints but with many sprinters having left the race, he doesn't face the strongest rivals. He is still in great condition as he proved when he made it into the big breakaway on the Puerto del Cantu on Sunday's queen stage and that is crucial at the end of a three-week race.

On paper, he has the strongest team to support him but until now he has been surprisingly isolated in the finales. The team finally got everything right on stage 12 but was extremely unfortunate when Matthews punctured with 5km to go, leaving the team to make a last-minute adjustment and focus on Mitchell Docker in the sprint. Since then, the team has lost significant firepower as Simon Gerrans, Sam Bewley and Baden Cooke have all left the race but with Leigh Howard and Docker as his final support riders, Matthews is ably supported. As said, strong lead-outs may not be the most important weapon tomorrow but if Orica-GreenEDGE can time things right, Matthews may double his tally.

Like Matthews, Gianni Meersman is not your typical sprinter for this kind of finish but unlike most of his fellow sprinters, the Belgian appears to have been getting better and better. He made it into the breakaway on stage 13 which was no mean feat as it took more than an hour for the break finally to be established. He has shown promising signs by finishing high up the rankings on the recent mountain stages and may be more fresh than most of his rivals. With only three riders to support him, he will be mostly alone but Guillaume Van Keirsbulck knows how to handle these hectic finishes. If he can position his Belgian compatriot perfectly, Meersman may finally take the stage win that many expected he would get at some point in the race.

Several times we have pointed to Francesco Lasca but a cold hampered the Italian's chances on the first sprint stages. Having recovered from his health issues, he finally got his chance to show his worth in the uphill sprint on stage 12. He was badly positioned but produced an extremely powerful sprint and if he hadn't been forced to stop pedaling when he was pushed towards the barriers, he would probably have finished 3rd behind Gilbert and Boasson Hagen. He is completely on his own in the finales but that may not be too much of a disadvantage tomorrow. If he manages the positioning well, there is little doubt that he has the speed to win.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has gradually ridden himself into form during the race. He has showed himself on different stages with his fantastic acceleration on stage 12 being his most visible performance so far. Since then he has desperately tried to get into breakaways on the difficult stages and has showed strength by getting into a couple of unsuccessful moves in the most hectic parts of the races. The Norwegian is not the fastest sprinter but recovers better than most and it is no coincidence that he has finished 2nd on the Champs-Elysees. If he positions himself on the right wheel, he may take the win that saves a lacklustre Vuelta for Sky.

Finally, we will select a joker. In the first sprint stages, the strongest lead-out train was Argos-Shimano's which dominated the finales on stages 5, 6 and 7. However, the young team was unable to time things correctly and always ran out of power, leaving Ramon Sinkeldam with few chances. Since then, Sinkeldam has left the race, suffering from Saturday's cold conditions, and this leaves the team with fewer options in the sprint. With Nikias Arndt having suffered from a cold, the team will give Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg his chance in tomorrow's stage. The South African is not your typical sprinter for this kind of finish but if his Argos team get everything right, he may mix it up with the best.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Maximilano Richeze

Other winner candidates: Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Gianni Meersman, Francesco Lasca, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Joker: Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg