The GC riders had hoped to save energy ahead of the three stages in the Asturian mountains but today's crosswinds drama made the day more complicated that some had preferred. They will need all their resources tomorrow when the race heads back into the hillier terrain in the first of the Asturian triptych. The short, brutally steep climb to Peña Cabarga is a classic in modern Vuelta history and offers the kind of gradients that can produce huge damage on some tired legs in the third week of a hard grand tour. Starting at 15.00 CEST you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

The GC battle resumes with another finish which has developed into a classic in the recent Vuelta history. The stage takes the riders through moderately hilly terrain from Burgos to the coastal city of Solares and its difficult uphill finish on the Peña Cabarga climb. The first part of the stage is rather easy with mostly flat terrain abd the only categorized climb is the category 3 Alto de Bocos (3km, 6,6%) whose top is located at the 78,3km mark.

 After 96,6km, the stage gets more difficult with the category 3 Alto Estacas de Trueba (10,9km, 3,2%), category 3 Puerto de la Braguia (6,1km, 6,3%) and the category 2 Alto del Caracol (10,6km, 5,6%) which follow in quick succession and are only separated by descents. From the top of the latter, 39,6km remain and they mostly consist of a downhill run to the coast and Solares with some smaller climbs disrupting the rhythm along the way.

Having reached Solares, the riders turn around to head up the category 1 Peña Cabarga (5,9km, 9,2%, max. 20%) that takes them up to the plateau overlooking the city. This is a short, brutally steep climb. The first 3km are difficult with a gradient between 9,5% and 14% but are followed by one kilometre of almost flat roads. They lead to the bottom of the final, steep 2km ramp which has a 20% section and the gradient rarely drops below the 15% mark during the final kilometre.

The roads on the final climb are mostly straight until the final steep ramp starts. A couple of hairpin bends will be tackled during the penultimate kilometre. 650m from the line, the riders will negotiate a sharp 90-degree left-hand turn. From there the road is straight for 150m while the next 450 gradually bend to the left, leading to the final, short 60m finishing straight. The final kilometre mostly have a 10% gradient with the first part being a bit steeper.

This is a real Joaquim Rodriguez climb and it is no wonder that the Spaniard won when the climb debuted during the 2010 edition. On that occasion, race leader Igor Anton crashed out in the hectic run-in to the climb while Vincenzo Nibali did well to finish 2nd - losing  20 seconds to Rodriguez over the short distance - and take over the leader's jersey from Anton. The finish was back in 2011 when it was Chris Froome's final opportunity to unseat race leader Juan Jose Cobo. The Brit briefly dropped his rival but the Spaniard clawed his way back. Froome made one final powerful surge to win his first grand tour stage while Cobo went on to win the race overall.

The weather

The riders will start from Burgos and if they didn't know it beforehand, the riders should by now know that it may be windy in this area. At least that will be the case at tomorrow's start where a moderate wind will blow from a northeastern direction. This means that the rider will face a cross-headwind when they head towards the coast before turning into a direct crosswind when the hilly zone begins. By that time, the wind will, however, have decreased significantly and it should have little impact on the racing. The riders will mostly face a headwind on the final stretch to the coast but will have a tailwind on the lower slopes of the final climb. They will then turn into a crosswind before having a headwind from the 1,5km to the 650m to go mark. In the finale, they will have a crosswind that gradually turns into a tailwind.

It will be a beautiful sunny day but like today, it will be unusually cold. At the start, the temperature will be just below the 20-degree mark and will stay there for most of the day when they head into the hills. The riders will have to enjoy tomorrow's and Friday's sunny conditions as rain is forecasted for Saturday's big showdown on the Angliru.

The favourites

Many riders will hope to get a chance to take a breakaway win tomorrow and we may see a fierce start to the stage with numerous attacks. However, it would be a wise decision to save their energy for Friday's stage which is almost destined to be won by an escapee as the GC riders have red-circled tomorrow as the day to finally take that elusive stage win.

Joaquim Rodriguez won on the Peña Cabarga when the climb debuted in 2010 and until now he hasn't won a stage in this year's Vuelta. The short, steep climb suits him perfectly and he would love to open his account by repeating that big victory. The early part of the stage is very easy and it should be a manageable task for Katusha to control the breakaway. Potential escapees will also be discouraged by the strong headwind and Katusha will offer no gifts tomorrow. A rather small group is likely to be allowed some leeway and then Katusha will gradually start to reel them in as they did on the stage to Valdepeñas de Jaen. Look out for Nicolas Edet to make it into the move as the Frenchman may almost lock up his win in the mountains classification by getting off the front tomorrow.

Katusha  may even get assistance from Movistar. The final climb also suits Alejandro Valverde well and the Spanish squad only have three remaining chances to keep their grand tour stage win streak alive as they have no sprinter for the final day in Madrid. Tomorrow's stage may be Valverde's best option and if Katusha gets into any kind of difficulty, we expect Movistar to lend them a hand.

The two squads are likely to rider tempo on the late climbs to make things harder and we may even see attacks on the category 2 climb. With 40km of gradual descending into a headwind remaining from the top, there is, however, very little hope that it will have any chance of success.

Things should be back together by the time the peloton hits the final climb and so one of the race favourites should win the stage. The final climb is a little bit longer than the short, steep ramps on which Rodriguez is unbeatable but it still suits him extremely well. From the end of the flat section, a 2km ramp remains and the gradient almost never drops below the 10% mark. That's the kind of distance on which Rodriguez can grit his teeth and sprint away from his rivals in his big gear.

It would be hard to imagine anyone beating Rodriguez tomorrow if he was at his best but by now it should be clear that the Katusha leader is not at 100%. He missed out in Valdepeñas de Jaen where he should have been unbeatable but had to dig deep just to stay on Valverde's wheel.

However, it is also evident that his condition has improved and he got better and better as the Pyrenean stages went on. On Monday, he finally managed to separate himself from his rivals and even managed to keep them at bay while riding into a headwind. This shows that the Katusha leader is on the rise and with his current condition, he should be able to win tomorrow's stage.

The big question is whether Vincenzo Nibali's mediocre showing on Monday was a result of just a bad day or a general fading tendency. He also showed signs of weakness on Sunday which could suggest the latter. On the other hand, the Italian has always had a tendency to suffer from bad days at the end of a series of consecutive mountain stages as we pointed out in our rest day analysis. Monday's stage was the final one in such a series and this may explain his performance.

If Nibali is back to his best, he has a great chance of winning tomorrow's stage. Until Sunday, he was the strongest climber in the race and that could put him onto the top step of the podium tomorrow. The final climb is a little short to his liking but the steep gradients suit him well and the ascent is long enough to not just be a pure sprint from bottom to top. In 2010 he finished 2nd behind Rodriguez on this climb. Nibali may want to win this race with as little energy expenditure as possible as he hopes to keep something in reserve for the world championships but in his current situation, he cannot afford himself to miss any opportunity. If he sees any sign of weakness from Horner, he has to attack and if he arrives at the finish with his American rival, he is likely to be the strongest in a sprint.

If Nibali has been the best climber, Horner has not been too far behind. He was clearly on his limit on Collada de la Gallina where he was dropped by the Astana leader inside the final 200m but until now he has been hugely consistent. The final climb may be a little bit too short to serve him perfectly but as a former winner of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he thrives on the steepest gradients. There is little doubt that he will try to attack Nibali and if the race leader hasn't found back his best legs, he will be unable to keep up with the American. Based on their previous performances, there is a chance that he will also be able to drop Rodriguez and so the American may take his third stage win.

The final rider in the top 3 is Valverde and he will do his utmost to win tomorrow. The Spaniard has been extremely consistent and even saved his podium spot when he suffered in Saturday's cold conditions. He most recently made a splendid performance on Monday. He was too late to realize that Nibali was suffering but finally launched a strong move to bridge across to Horner before dropping the American in the sprint.

The final climb suits him well. However, it has been evident that he is not at the level of Horner and Nibali when it comes to climbing. He was even briefly in difficulty on the Alto de Hazallanas and we doubt that he can keep up with the strongest tomorrow. He will benefit from the short length which could allow him to use his explosiveness and so still has a genuine winner chance. If he gets to within 300m from the line, his fast kick will make him a danger man.

Honestly, it is hard to imagine a different winner than one of the top 4 riders in the race. On this kind of gradients, there is very little tactics involved and it mostly comes down to pure strength. If the main riders are unable to drop each other, a tactical battle may evolve and that could allow Thibaut Pinot to shine. The Frenchman has been very close to the top riders and even managed to finish ahead of Horner on Monday's stage. He would have preferred a longer climb but will be extremely eager to take revenge for today's poor showing.

Domenico Pozzovivo finds himself in a similar position. The tiny Italian couldn't have designed a  better climb. He loves the steepest gradients but has a tendency to fade on longer climbs. The Peña Cabarga is not too long but very steep and so Pozzovivo will find it to his liking. Like Pinot, he may exploit any kind of tactical battle between the race favourites.

Finally, we will select out joker. As usual, Samuel Sanchez was far from his best at the start of a grand tour but has gradually improved and is now finding his best form. Steep gradients suit him really well as he most recently proved in Valdepeñas de Jaen. He is a wily competitor who will know how to exploit any kind of hesitation and if he gets clear, no one can grit their teeth like the Euskaltel leader.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Joaquim Rodriguez

Other winner candidates: Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Horner

Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde, Thibaut Pinot, Domenico Pozzovivo

Joker: Samuel Sanchez