Chris Horner firmly established himself as the top favourite to win the Vuelta a Espana on Peña Cabarga but narrowly missed out on the red leader's jersey. He will get another chance in tomorrow's second consecutive mountain stage that finishes on the famous Alto del Naranco. However, the final climb is not overly difficult and while the GC riders will have most of their attention focused on Saturday's showdown on Angliru, the stage appears to be destined to be won by an early breakaway. Starting at 15.00 CEST, you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

There will be very little time for the GC riders to rest as the 19th stage has another famous uphill finish. From the start at the seafront in San Vicente de la Barquera, the riders travel along the coast in a western direction as they continue their journey towards the Asturian mountains. Those coastal roads have a number of smaller climbs but are mostly flat and only the wind may pose any kind of danger.

At the 103km mark, the riders turn left to leave the coast and head up the uncategorized Alto de la Campa. There will be no descent as the peloton continues along flat roads to the hillier finale. The category 3 Alto de San Emiliano (6,3km, 4,6%) kicks it off with 39,0km to go and is followed by an uncategorized climb and the category 3 Alto de la Manzaneda (3,6km, 6,2%) in quick succession. From the top of the latter, only 12,4km remain. The first part is a downhill run to Oviedo and the riders will head straight through the city to take on the famous category 2 climb Alto del Naranco (5,7km, 4,2%).

The ascent has hosted the finish of the one-day race Subida al Naranco which has come into financial difficulties and hasn't been run since 2010 with Santiago Perez being the most recent winner. Instead, the climb has been included in the Vuelta a Asturias and Constantino Zaballa, Remy Di Gregorio and Javier Moreno have all triumphed during the three most recent editions of that race. The climb is not overly difficult but the average gradient is slightly deceptive. The first 2,7km are very easy but 3km from the finish, the riders hit an 800m section with a 10% gradient. The final 2,2km have rather constant 6% gradient.

There are a couple of hairpin bend on the steepest section but otherwise the road is mostly straight with some slight bends along the way. The final kilometre is a bit more tricky with five 90-degree turns. The final one comes 290m from the finish line and the road keeps its steady 6% gradient all the way to the finish.

The weather

It would be a good idea for the riders to enjoy tomorrow's conditions as rain is forecasted for Saturday's big showdown on Angliru. However, they couldn't have wished a better day for bike racing than what's on offer tomorrow.

The riders will enjoy bright sunshine for the entire stage. At the start, the temperature will be around 22 degrees and it should get slightly hotter when they leave the coast. The first part of the stage will be rather windy as there will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind on their long coastal run. This could create a hugely nervous start to the stage and if the roads are exposed, the peloton may even split up.

There will be a direct tailwind when the riders turn left and leave the coast but at the second intermediate sprint, the peloton will turn into a crosswind. The riders will have a crosswind on the first part of the final climb but 2,7km from the finish, they will turn into a headwind. The turns inside the final kilometre will gradually change the conditions and the peloton will mostly have a tailwind in the final 725m.

The favourites

Most of the big teams made big mistakes or showed vulnerability today. Movistar had clear intentions of winning the stage but apparently, they were not strong enough to control the hectic opening phase and couldn't reel in the 15-rider break, neither in the beginning nor later in the stage. They organized their chase way too late as they should know better than to give their former rider Vasil Kiriyenka a 10-minute gap. Radioshack missed out on a stage win and 10 valuable bonus seconds by not lending Movistar a hand. Katusha had a strange irresolute tactics, occasionally chasing in the peloton while also giving Angel Vicioso a chance to play his own cards in the finale.

Hence, it was once again a breakaway that took the spoils in one of the few remaining opportunities for the favourites and their chances to get a stage win are now limited. On paper, tomorrow's uphill finish may offer a possibility but with the Angliru coming up, most will be happy to save their legs for Saturday's big battle.

The far most likely outcome is that the early breakaway will stay away but it will take a long time for the right group to finally be established. With a cross-tailwind, there will be plenty of nervousness in the opening part and the pace will be fierce. For most teams, tomorrow's stage is their final genuine opportunity if they do not have a sprinter or one of the top climbers and so most teams will do their utmost to be part of the early action.

Due to the wind, the peloton could very well split up in the early part of the race but as there is still a long way to go when they leave the coast, everything will come back together when the early break is established unless one of the big favourites has been inattentive and missed the split. That is unlikely to happen and so the race will probably settle into a more steady rhythm when the break has finally been allowed to go up the road.

Two things may prevent the breakaway from winning the stage. First of all, Movistar may organize a chase. The final climb suits Valverde perfectly as it is rather short and not overly steep and as the headwind will make it difficult to make a difference. The Spanish team hasn't won a stage yet and will be eager to keep their streak alive, having won a stage in every grand tour under their current name.

However, the team spent a lot of energy today without being able to reel in the group and as the break is likely to be rather big, they will probably play their cards by putting a rider into the break. Should they miss out, they may start to chase but most likely they are happy to save energy for the Angliru.

The second thing that may prevent a breakaway in is if a couple of the teams which have no GC riders and haven't won a stage, miss the move. Under such circumstances, one often sees that a number of teams collaborate to neutralize the move when most would think that the elastic has snapped. If everything is brought together late in the stage, the teams of the favourites may want to keep it that way all the way to the final climb.

However, we believe in a breakaway and at this point in the race, only a few riders have enough left in the tank to make it into the move in what will be a hectic start. On the other hand, the first part is very easy and as it was the case today, there won't necessarily be that many climbers in the break that finally makes it. To win tomorrow's stage, however, you need to have your climbing legs turned on but the easy start makes it harder to predict who's going to make it into the group.

Today Sky took their first stage win after two consecutive 2nd places and they may double their tally tomorrow. Rigoberto Uran's GC ambitions were crushed in the Andorran cold and since then he has set  his sights on a stage win. On Sunday, he showed that he is still one of the best climbers in the race by battling the race favourites on the Col de Peyresourde and on Monday, he made it into the breakaway. On that occasion, he was caught out due to a tactical battle but put in an impressive performance by bridging across to Warren Barguil before losing the final sprint.

Today he had hoped to contest the stage win against the GC riders but when it was clear that the breakaway was going to take the win, he decided to take it easy. On the rest day, he confirmed to Biciciclicmo that he is feeling well and he will go out with all guns blazing on what may be his final opportunity to take that elusive stage win. It's hard to imagine that a better climber will be allowed to go into the break and the Colombian even has a very fast sprint. If he can keep his head calm and handle the tactical aspect, he will be the major favourite from almost any break.

Another rider that finds himself in a similar position is Rafal Majka. Like Uran, his GC dreams crumbled in Saturday's cold but until then, he had firmly established himself as one of the best climbers in the race. He confirmed that assessment by riding strongly in today's finale, briefly leading the peloton before leaving it to Nicolas Roche to do the rest of the work himself. Saxo-Tinkoff have shown that they are intent of getting riders into the breaks and they would certainly prefer that their young Pole gets it right tomorrow. He would probably have liked a more difficult finishing climb but the final part should be difficult enough for Majka to express his talents.

Diego Ulissi arrived in Galicia with the intention of winning a stage but until now, he has been unsuccessful. His race was off to a good start when he battled Valverde in the sprint for the minor places in stage 2 and he did well by getting into the break on stage 10. However, he hasn't been at his best in the middle part of the race but now seems to be improving. He launched a strong move in the finale yesterday and was able to hang on to the group of favourites for a long time in today's stage. The final climb suits him perfectly as it is neither too steep nor too long. With a headwind he will be difficult to drop and may fully capitalize from his fast uphill sprint. Lampre will do their utmost to get either Ulissi or Michele Scarponi into the break but as the latter is well-placed on GC, he faces a tough ask. Ulissi may be the rider that finally gives the team a stage win after a number of near-misses.

As said, Movistar is likely to play the breakaway card tomorrow and the rider they would most want to get into the break, is Jose Herrada. The Spaniard has been impressively strong from the very beginning of the race and has been Valverde's most important domestique in the mountains. It is testament to his strength that he is 13th on GC despite spending a lot of time on the front leading the peloton in the crucial moments.

That GC position may also be what prevents him from getting into the break. However, he is far behind Samuel Sanchez in 9th and Astana and Katusha won't do anything to protect the GC positions of Tanel Kangert and Daniel Moreno. Should Herrada get into the break, it will be left to Lampre to close it down and we doubt the Italian team will be strong enough to do so at the end of what is likely to have been a frantic start. If the Movistar rider gets into the break, he has the climbing legs to finish it off.

It would be almost careless not to name Warren Barguil as a potential winner of this stage. The Argos rider has all the capabilities to shine in this kind of finish. His fast sprint and climbing prowess have long been well-known but during this race, he has also revealed tactical astuteness and great calmness in the hectic finales. By now, everyone knows that he is a danger man and he may find things a bit more complicated in the finales but it would be hard to bet against him should he get into the right move.

If things get back together for the final climb, Valverde will be the big favourite. There is no doubt that Horner is the strongest climber but the American will find it difficult to make a difference on these gentle gradient and the headwind will complicate things even further. The steep section is so short that it will be impossible to get rid of Valverde and the wily Spaniard is strong enough to stay in contact during the final 2km. His main challenge will be to keep everything under control in the finale and he will need Herrada to chase down all late attacks. If he arrives at the finish for a sprint finish, he will be unbeatable.

Regardless of the fate of the early breakaway, there will be a battle between the GC riders and we may see Rodriguez, Horner and Valverde try an attack. With a headwind, it will be difficult to make a difference and we predict the four best climbers to arrive at the finish together.

Finally, we will select out joker. Young Georg Preidler may not have the same climbing strength as his teammate Barguil but the Austrian is another big talent. What has been most impressive is his apparent improvement throughout his maiden grand tour and he will the other rider that Argos will try to get into tomorrow's break. He did so on stage 10 where he stayed ahead for a long time and he will be eager to finally get a chance to battle for a stage win as he did it recently on the queen stage of the Tour de Pologne.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Rigoberto Uran

Other winner candidates: Rafal Majka, Diego Ulissi

Outsiders: Jose Herrada, Warren Barguil, Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Georg Preidler