Vincenzo Nibali got his Vuelta a Espana off to a perfect start but the Italian won't get any chance to rest on his laurels. In what is a very rare route design for a grand tour, the riders head into the mountains on their very first road stage with an exciting mountaintop finish on Alto do Monte da Groba. The climb is not overly difficult and won't produce massive time differences but we should get an indication of who won't win this year's Vuelta. Starting at 16.45 CEST (or immediately after the conclusion of the Vattenfall Cyclassics) you can follow the drama on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

There will be no gentle introduction to this year's Vuelta. After the important team time trial on day 1, the GC contenders will be tested again the next day which offers the race's first summit finish. Not many grand tours have put the climbers in the spotlight before the sprinters have had their first chance to battle each other in a bunch kick but that is what happens in this year's edition of the Spanish grand tour.

The stage starts in another Galician coastal town Pontevedra - where Fredrik Kessiakoff won the time trial last year and Peter Sagan beat John Degenkolb in an uphill sprint one year earlier - and follows completely flat roads along the coast during the first part. After 50km, they turn left to head up the category 3 Alto de San Cosme (10,6km, 3,4%). A fast descent leads to the river Rio Miño which separates Spain from Portugal. The riders will follow the river along flat roads back to the coast where they will turn right to travel along the flat coastal road.

It all comes to a dramatic conclusion when the riders once again leave the coast to head up the final climb, the category 1 Alto do Monte da Groba (11km, 5,6%, 10%). The ascent is hardest at the bottom while the middle section is much easier at just around 4%. The road gets steeper towards the end, as the final two kilometres will have gradients of around 7-8%. There are a number of sweeping turns inside the final 5km. With 500m to go, the riders take a 90-degree left-hand turn which is immediately follow by a sweeping right-hand bend which leads onto the short 250m, 7,5% finishing straight.

The weather

The riders got their Vuelta off to a sunny and windy start and they will enjoy similar conditions for today's second day of racing. The riders will set off in bright sunshine which should continue for the entire stage, and the temperatures will reach its maximum at around 25 degrees.

Like yesterday there will be a moderate wind blowing from a northern direction but it shouldn't be as strong as it was 24 hours ago. This means that the riders will mostly have a tailwind as they head from Pontevedra down to the Spanish-Portuguese border but there will also be a long, tricky section with crosswinds.

With 41,4km to go, the riders reach the coast and face a direct headwind as they head back up north which will make it very difficult for the escapees to stay away. Just before the climb, the riders turn right to continue in an eastern direction and the peloton will head to the bottom of the climb along exposed coastal roads with a direct crosswind. With a fierce battle for position going on, this could be a really tricky and nervous section. On the climb itself, the riders will mostly have a tailwind, turning to a crosswind further up the climb. It should be a tailwind sprint.

The favourites

The final climb may be 11km long but due to the long, easy middle section, it's not a day to produce massive time differences. Only the final 1-2km are difficult enough to make a real separation among the contenders and that distance is simply too short. Hence, it is likely to come down to a sprint among the favourites, putting most riders into defence mode. There will be plenty of nervousness as there is very little to gain but very much to lose. We won't see who's going to win this year's race but we could easily see who won't.

With an uphill sprint being the likely outcome, Alejandro Valverde has red-circled this stage. His main assets in this year's Vuelta are the bonus seconds and the many uphill finishes. His fast sprint should allow him to make plenty of gains by virtue of the bonifications and he knows that today's finish suits him down to the ground.

This also means that the early breakaway will have very little chance to spoil the party for the climbers. Most of the stage is rather easy, the riders are still fresh and the task of keeping everything together for the final climb will be manageable for Movistar whom we expect to control the day's proceedings. Astana may not be too interested in defending their leader's jersey at this early point in the race and would probably be happy to see a breakaway ride away with the bonifications. That leaves it to Movistar and possible Katusha to do the bulk of today's chase work.

We should see an extremely nervous run-in to the climb as the riders will face a hard crosswind along the coast and it is not unlikely that crashes will happen. On the climb itself, we expect Movistar to use its strong team to string things out and keep everything in control. Caja Rural riders like Amets Txurruka, Ivan Velasco and Marcos Garcia, Cofidis climbers like Nicolas Edet and Yoann Bagot and NetApp-Endura's David de la Cruz and Jose Mendes could all try to attack up the slopes but Jose Herrada, Javier Moreno, Sylwester Szmyd and later Benat Intxausti and Eros Capecchi should have no trouble keeping it together for their captain.

With a sprint finish from a small group of favourites the likely outcome, Valverde stands out as the favourite. None of the GC riders have the same finishing kick as the Spaniard and he will be very hard to beat in a sprint like today's. With a strong team to support him and Capecchi to ramp things up in the finale, Valverde has a good chance to make up for yesterday's disappointment when a puncture for Intxausti saw him lose extra time. He may have hoped to take the leader's jersey today but that won't happen due to yesterday's results.

Two of the other GC favourites also pose a fast uphill sprint. Sergio Henao and Joaquim Rodriguez shape up to be Valverde's strongest rivals. Both looked incredibly strong during yesterday's team time trial, Henao taking some strong turns despite being positioned just behind big motor Edvald Boasson Hagen and Rodriguez dropping back to escort Daniel Moreno back up to the team. Like Valverde, they have set their sights on today's bonus seconds and Rodriguez will be extremely motivated to start moving up the GC ladder after yesterday's bad start.

Uphill sprints are a specialty for both but to beat Valverde will be very different. Where they really excel are on very steep ramps to the finish and that's not what today's stage has on offer. The easier gradients clearly favour Valverde who has a much faster sprint on flat roads than his two rivals. That was evidenced in last year's Vuelta when Valverde beat Rodriguez on the Collada da Gallina stage which finished with a sprint that was even slightly steeper than today's, and Henao share many of Rodriguez' characteristics. Nonetheless, they should not be too far off the mark and those three race favourites could very well end up constituting the day's podium.

Henao is not the only Sky rider who has a decent chance today. In a traditional sprint finish, Rigoberto Uran is probably slightly faster than his teammate and today's finish suits him perfectly. He may not be as fast as Valverde but he is a really capable sprinter. Henao is the team's captain but that shouldn't hamper Uran too much in today's finish where he won't be asked to do much work for the team. He looked strong in yesterday's team time trial and should be ready to give it a go today.

Daniel Martin may be a tiny climber but he is actually very fast in a sprint. This kind of uphill finishes suits him perfectly as has been evidenced by his numerous top results in the Ardennes classics. He got his Vuelta off to a disastrous start when 3 of his teammates crashed in yesterday's team time trial and he already finds himself with 1.41 to make up on Nibali. A good way to make amends would be by producing one of his trademark sprints today.

Carlos Betancur looms as a dark horse for today's stage. The Colombian is not here to contest the GC and has set his sights on the world championships. He is likely to start the race a little bit underprepared but to improve as the race goes on. Hence, today's stage may be a little bit too early for the Colombian to shine. Nonetheless, he has that kick which makes him a real danger in today's finale. He may not beat Valverde in a sprint but he has a fabulous ability to exploit a moment of hesitation to attack. That was what he did on stage 3 of this year's Vuelta al Pais Vasco and in the Fleche Wallonne and what he did repeatedly in the Giro. Look out for Betancur to launch one of his devastating late moves if the GC contenders start to look a little bit too much at each other.

Finally, the battle for the red jersey deserves a mention. With none of the potential stage winners being inside 20 seconds of Brajkovic, it will be an Astana rider that wears the jersey at day's end, probably the one that crosses the line in first position. That is of course most likely to be Vincenzo Nibali who is not perfectly suited to today's finish but should to a good job to keep up with his main rivals. Brajkovic should not lose any time either but will have to finish ahead of Nibali to stay in red. The dark horse is Paolo Tiralongo who has a decent sprint and could battle for the win in today's stage. The question is whether he will get his own chance or has to devote himself entirely to Nibali.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Sergio Henao, Joaquim Rodriguez

Outsiders: Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin, Carlos Betancur