On Sunday, the cycling-mad Dutch population get their only chance to see the world's best riders battle it out on their own roads when they open up the doors to a festival of hills, crashes and narrow, twisting roads. As an amalgamation between a Flemish classic and the tougher races later in the week, the Amstel Gold Race is the first of the three Ardennes classics and marks the transition from the world of the strong cobbles specialists to a paradise for punchy, explosive climbers.

 

It is somewhat of a paradox that a country with an extremely rich cycling history, a big ProTeam, a host of some of the most exciting talents and a very well-developed cycling infrastructure only has very limited opportunities to showcase its finest riders in a head-to-head battle with the world elite. Nonetheless, the Netherlands are left with only one day in the spotlight of the cycling world. On Sunday that day has finally arrived.

 

However, the lack of real highlights on the Dutch cycling calendar is a reflection of the country's late inclusion in the list of cycling powerhouses. While the tradition of competitive cycling in France, Belgium and Italy goes back to the late 1800s and the early 1900s, Dutch cyclists only entered the world elite much later. Belgium won their first Tour de France title in 1912 but their northern neighbours had to wait until Jan Janssen's 1968 triumph before they finally took home a victory in the world's greatest cycling race.

 

Hence, it is no surprise that the country's biggest cycling event is a rather young affair. First held in 1966, the race is not shrouded by the history of its fellow classics but the event has seen a rapid rise through the ranks. Even though the first edition nearly got cancelled and the course changed several times, the race quickly grew to fame and drew the attention of the biggest riders of the time. Unsurprisingly, the Belgian neighbours dominated the early years, with Eddy Merckx winning the race twice, but during the late 70s and early 80s the home nation stamped its authority on the race, partly due to Jan Raas' record five victories in the event. It was no surprise to see the UCI include it on its first World Cup calendar in 1989 and the race has had its natural place on both the Pro- and WorldTour calendars since their inceptions.

 

It is another paradox that the Amstel Gold Race signals the start of the second, hilly part of the classics season. Held in one of flattest countries in Europe, the race has an almost unnatural role as the first one-day target for some of the world's most punchy climbers. However, the Southern Limburg province distinguishes itself from the rest of the country due to its hilly nature and the area is tailor-made for entertaining bike races.

 

As the first of the three Ardennes classics, it is a race for riders with a punch on the short, steep hills, with the landmark climb of Cauberg perfectly characterizing the kind of challenges that the race offers. Nonetheless, its nature is different from the ones found in Belgium next week, and the Dutch classic is somewhat of an amalgamation between the Tour of Flanders and the Liege-Bastogne-Liege. With no less than 34 climbs, no cobbles and more than 4000m of climbing, it has the same hilly nature as La Doyenne in the Wallonian province. At the same time, however, the race is held on narrow, twisting roads, thus making positioning the key to a good result, and the climbs are mostly no longer than 2000m - two attributes which make the race much more comparable with De Ronde in Flanders. As it is the case in the biggest Flemish race, the nature of the road and the constant positioning battle often turn the race into a bit of a crash fest and in this race no one can underestimate the importance of course knowledge.

 

While the race marks a changing of the guard with the strong men giving way for the climbers, the substitution is a much more gradual process than one might think. With the importance of positioning, most teams include a number of Flemish classics specialists in their rosters for Amstel, and some of the cobbled classics experts have often chosen to squeeze the last result out of their early-season condition in the Dutch race. More climbers join for the Fleche Wallonne in which the climbs are longer and the finald much harder while few cobbles specialists are back on the start line on Wednesday. Finally, Liege-Bastogne-Liege is almost a pure climber's race and with riders from the Giro del Trentino joining the line-up, the transition has been completed. Almost all of the world's best climbers and GC specialists will be gathered on the start line in Liege which won't be the case in Sunday's race.

 

In the past, the race was held after Liege-Bastogne-Liege but a reform of the calendar has made it the first of the three Ardennes classics. This makes the progression of toughness much more natural and the overall layout of the classics season much more natural. Even though it is not a monument, it is one of the very few races that are held over a monument distance and it ranks just below the five biggest classics. Nonetheless, the race remains firmly placed below Liege-Bastogne-Liege in the Ardennes hierarchy and all non-Dutch Amstel contenders with a realistic chance to win in Liege, would always swap a win in the Netherlands for a victory in cycling's oldest classic.

 

Last year Philippe Gilbert became the second rider after Jan Raas to win the race for a third time when he powered clear on the Cauberg to take a memorable solo win. A very strong group with Jakob Fuglsang, Alexandr Kolobnev, Bjorn Leukemans, Paul Martens, Pieter Weening, Tim Wellens, Thomas Voeckler and Greg Van Avermaet had animated the second half of the race and due to Van Avermaet’s presence, it allowed BMC to take a back seat while Movistar and Omega Pharma-Quick Step had to chase. As they hit the Cauberg for the final time, Gilbert sent Samuel Sanchez off in an attack before he countered the move and soloed away to the win. Michal Kwiatkowski, Alejandro Valverde and Simon Gerrans formed the nearest chasers but due to a lack of cooperation, they were passed by Jelle Vanendert who took another second place in the race before Gerrans outsprinted Valverde to complete the podium. Gilbert will be back to try to add a fourth win to his palmares and will again be up against former winner Valverde and Vanendert, Gerrans and Kwiatkowski who all aim for a first win in the Ducth classic.

 

The course

The toughness of the course may put the race into the category of Ardennes classics but when it comes to the overall build-up of the race, it is more like a Flemish race. Like the cobbled races in the cycling-mad Belgian region, the Amstel Gold Race makes almost excessive use of a very small hilly area in a mostly flat region. This is certainly no point-to-point race as the course zigzags its way through a tiny part of the Netherlands, making use of the same roads several times and going up the same climbs on more than one occasion. The riders are never too far away from the starting point of Maastricht or the finishing city of Valkenburg and the race returns to the finish line several times before the end of the race.

 

The roads in the region are all tiny and narrow and the Netherlands is a densely populated country. The race runs through many suburbs and villages. With pressure on land being so great, many Dutch houses do not have garages and cars are left parked in the street. There are also many traffic-calming obstacles such as pinches, chicanes and speed humps, and further obstacles such as roundabouts and traffic islands. Crashes are a brutal but unavoidable part of the race and it is of crucial importance to know when and where to position oneself ahead of climbs and windy stretches.

 

What characterizes the race are its many climbs that are littered throughout the course. In itself, none of them are very challenging but with 34 ascents spread over 258km, they come in very quick succession and leave no room for recovery.

 

In 2003 organizers chose to move the finish line from its traditional location in Maastricht to the top of the famous Cauberg climb. Since then the landmark of the race has been its explosive finish on the 1200m long ascent with an average gradient of 5.8% and maximum 12% section.

 

However, the difficulty of the finish made for a much more controlled race in which the favourites mostly chose to save their power for the final uphill sprint. In an attempt to open up the race, the race organization has once again changed the script of the finish. After a dress rehearsal at the 2012 world championships road race - which was won by Philippe Gilbert - the finish line was located 1800 metres further on from the top of the climb for the 2013 edition, thus giving riders the possibility to get back in contention after being dropped on the ascent. Organizers hoped that this would spur on some of the favourites to attack from afar but neither the world championships nor the 2013 and 2014 editions saw the main contenders play their cards before the Cauberg. However, things have come back together on the final flat section in some of the races, opening the door for more potential contenders and this year the organizers have stuck to the new format.

 

The race's main feature is the Cauberg climb which the riders do four times. Up until 2012, however, the penultimate passage was located quite far from the finish as the riders ended the race by doing a lap of a circuit that included the steep Eyserbosweg and Keutenberg which were both located rather close to the finish. As part of the new course, however, the race now ends with a lap of the 19km circuit used for the 2012 Worlds and that circuit is far easier than the previous one. In addition to Cauberg, it only includes the climbs of Geulhemmerweg and Bemelerberg and those two ascents are far easier than Eyserbosweg and Keutenberg. Now Eyserbosweg comes 39.4km from finish while there is still 31.1km to go by the time, the riders crest the summit of the Keutenberg. This makes it much harder to use these key climbs to late attacks and there is no doubt that the race is way easier than it was in its previous incarnation.

 

As always, the 258km race - which is slightly longer than last year’s and includes the same climbs in the same order - starts in the main city of the province, Maastricht. From there, they head into the hills located west of the city, and the race now winds around in a rather small area close to the Belgian-Dutch and German-Dutch borders, taking in the same roads multiple times.

 

The riders will have to tackle no less than 34 climbs on a long day of constant elimination and unlike most of its fellow classics, the race does not start off with a long, flat opening stretch. On the contrary, the climbs are scattered over the entire course, and the day's first ascent, the Slingerberg, is located only 9.4km from the official start. Many climbs will be climbed more than once, and the race's landmark climb Cauberg will be visited not less than four times.

 

The terrain is an invitation to aggressive racing and so it usually takes a bit of time for the early break to be established. Due to the strains of this hard race, they often get a very big gap before the key teams start to chase. The advantage often grows to more than 10 minutes before the main teams start to chase. After 54.1km, the riders go up the Cauberg for the first time after having done five climbs in the first part of the race. They then do a big 111.6km loop with 16 climbs, ending with the second passage of the Cauberg.

 

Apart from the climbs, the main challenge is the constant stress of the narrow, twisting roads. Positioning at the bottom of the climbs is a key ingredient in any successful Amstel bid and the role of team support in the constant battle for position and detailed knowledge of the course cannot be underestimated. Crashes are certain to occur and the race is certainly not won purely on brute strength. This part of the race is usually not very aggressive but is more of a long, steady chase behind the breakaway. However, the many climbs gradually take their toll on the legs and the narrow roads require constant focus and attention which makes the race extremely stressful. Crashes are almost destined to happen at this point of the race.

 

The next circuit is 71.3km long and contains 8 climbs in addition to the Cauberg. This is usually where the race really starts as it is now time to start to attack. Several teams want the race to be hard or have teammates up the roads when their captains make their move and so this is usually a very aggressive phase of the race. A few years ago, the first moves were often launched from a bit further out but in recent years the big moves have come inside the final 50km. It is important for the major teams to have riders in every move to avoid getting on the back foot and having to chase. As last year’s race proves, this is the perfect time for the lieutenants to try their hand.  At the same time, the constant repetition of climbs and stress of keeping a good position make it a gradual elimination race and from now on the peloton will only get smaller and smaller.

 

In the past, the favourites often played their cards on the Eyserbosweg (1100m, 8.1%)  and Keutenberg (700m, 9.4%) and often a rather small group has emerged after the top. With their new location much farther from the finish, they no longer play the same kind of important role. The fight for position going into those ascents is still intense and they play a big role in whittling down the peloton. However, the main favourites are likely to wait for the final climb up the Cauberg but for several very strong riders their only chance is to attack. For them, these two climbs and the penultimate passage of the Cauberg could be the key to the winning move and we can expect a fierce pursuit between a strong break and the ever-dwindling peloton over the final 20km. In 2013, Kreuziger launched the race-winning move when they passed the Cauberg for the third time.

 

Having tackled the old finish with the Eyserbosweg, the Fromberg, the Keutenberg and the Cauberg, the riders hit the finish line and will now start a new 18.5km finishing loop. The circuit includes the Geulhemmerweg climb (1000m, 6.2%) with 16.5km remaining and the Bemelerberg (900m, 5.0%) with only 7.8km to go. They are not very hard though and not really suited to attacks from the peloton at a time when the race is usually very fast. After the top of the latter, it's a false flat for few kilometres before the fast descent on a long straight road that leads to the bottom of the Cauberg 2.5km from the line. Here the riders tackle the famous turn that leads them onto the slopes. The ascent is steepest in its lower section before leveling out near the top. 1800m from the line, the riders crest the summit as they make a sharp left-hand turn before continuing along a long straight, slightly rising road to the finish.

 

If the early break has been brought back, it will be a huge fight for position to get onto the climb in the best possible position. Here the favourites are expected to battle it out and they have to make their moves on the lower slopes which are clearly the toughest. If one rider manages to get clear, he has a big chance of making it to the finish as there is usually a lack of cooperation in the different groups when they hit the flat section. Here a regrouping can take place but also open the door for a surprise move from one of the outsiders who may benefit from the tactical battle to get clear and take an upset win in what can be an unpredictable and uncontrollable finale of the biggest Dutch race.

 

 

 

The weather

As usual, the weather is a key ingredient and with the Amstel Gold Race sharing some similarities with the Tour of Flanders, it is no surprise that it will be no different on Sunday. The wind has the potential to wreak havoc on the peloton in certain places and a rainy day will only make for more nervousness on the narrow, twisting descents. Furthermore, the wind direction in the final flat kilometre will be crucial in determining whether a lone rider has a big chance to stay away.

 

Since the very windy Gent-Wevelgen, the riders have had pretty nice conditions for the classics and in Brabantse Pijl, they nearly enjoyed a summer day in Belgium. They won’t get the same kind of heat for Sunday’s race but many will be pleased to know that it will be another great day for a bike ride. Bright sunshine is forecasted for the entire race and the temperature will reach a maximum of a pleasant 15 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction and the riders will of course have all kinds of wind direction as they zigzag their way around the hilly, twisty Limburg province. On the finishing circuit, there will mainly be a crosswind, including on the Bemelerberg. After the descent, the riders turn into a headwind before they get a tailwind for the first part of the Cauberg and then again a crosswind. In the final flat section, there will be a crosswind which will be a little more of a cross-headwind than a direct crosswind. 

 

The favourites

The favourites for the Ardennes classics all have to be found within the same pool of riders but the races are all quite different and suit different types of riders. While Liege-Bastogne-Liege is a very tough affair that tend more towards being a race for the real climbers, and the unique finish to Fleche Wallonne restrict the number of potential winners to just a handful of very explosive, pure climbers, the Amstel Gold Race is more of a race for the punchy classics specialists and due to the new finish, it is probably the one with the broadest range of potential winners.

 

The climbs are so short that the punchiest riders are able to sprint almost all the way from the bottom to the top, putting the climbers at a clear disadvantage. On the other hand, the total amount of climbing and the long distance makes the race a rather tough affair that gradually eliminates the heavier guys. Depending on how the race unfolds, the door is potentially open for a wide range of riders, ranging from climbers and stage race specialists over puncheurs and even to some of the strongest sprinters who benefit from the changed finale.

 

Brabantse Pijl and Kreuziger’s 2013 win prove that this kind of terrain is pretty hard to control and that team tactics can always create a surprise. With the weather forecast predicting calm and sunny weather, however, it will be easier for the big teams to control the race. Furthermore, WorldTour races are usually more controlled as more big guns are aiming for the wins and there are more obvious favourites. If the right group goes clear, a strong move can survive. Last year a very strong group had representation from most of the big teams and if Zdenek Stybar had not been dropped, Movistar had probably been almost alone to do the chase. In 2013, no one wanted to assist Cannondale in the chase and this allowed Kreuziger to stay away. Last year’s race and Brabantse Pijl proved that BMC are willing to ride use their strong team in an offensive way and Orica-GreenEDGE and Katusha are likely to have similar plans. Movistar are all for Alejandro Valverde while Etixx-QuickStep may also be mostly focused on Michal Kwiatkowski and depending of the composition of the late groups, it may come down to those two teams to shut the attacks down.

 

Nonetheless, one or more key teams are likely to miss the move or feel less comfortable with their rider in the front group and history proves that the race is most likely to be decided on the Cauberg.

 

When the race finished at the top of the Cauberg, the race was often decided in a sprint from a select group on the steep slopes. Of course several riders tried to escape in the finale - and as Sergey Ivanov's and Frank Schleck's wins proved, it was possible to stay away to the finish - but most riders waited for a final acceleration on the climb. In principle, the race could only be won by one of the few riders that really specialize in uphill sprints, or a brave attacker that surprised the main favourites.

 

With the changes to the finale, the race can now potentially be won from four different scenarios. As said, it is most likely that a reduced peloton will arrive together at the bottom of the Cauberg to decide the race.

 As usual the best riders will attack on the race's key climb and at the top, a very select group - potentially consisting of only a single rider - will have formed. In 2013, we were down to just three riders at the top while only Gilbert was left in 2014. In the previous finale, the race would now have been decided.

 

Now, however, a lot can still happen. The select group may stay away to the finish to sprint it out for the win (or a lone rider may hold on to take a solo win). There is a big chance though that the group won't work together and this opens the door for a surprise winner. As riders rejoin from behind, attacks can be launched on the false flat to the finish and as no one can expect to have domestiques left at this point, it won't be obvious who's going to chase it down. A rider who is not able to follow the best on the Cauberg but is not too far behind, can win the race in this fashion - just recall how Niki Terpstra benefited from tactics to win last year’s Paris-Roubaix and how Jelle Vanendert managed to get back and sneak away to take second in last year’s race. Finally, a bigger regrouping may take place after the top which could even bring strong sprinters like Michael Matthews into contention.

 

Among the current professionals, Philippe Gilbert has been the standout performer in the Amstel Gold Race. With three wins in the Dutch classics and a victory in the World Championships when it used this finale, no one can deny that the Belgian is perfectly suited to the terrain in the Limburg province. On paper, the old finish with the finish at the top of the Cauberg suited him better but in last year’s race and at the Worlds he managed to triumph in the new finale. This year he hopes to add a fourth triumph to his palmares and so get closer to Jan Raas’ record of five wins in Limburg.

 

As said, we won’t rule out that a breakaway can create a surprise but the most likely scenario is a sprint between the favourites up the Cauberg. Last year Gilbert proved that no one can follow him on this kind of climb when he is at 100% and this year the early racing suggests that he is riding even stronger than he was 12 months ago.

 

Already towards the end of last year, it seemed that he was getting closer to his magical 2011 level. He was one of the strongest at the World Championships and he surprised himself by climbing with the best in the Chinese mountains to win the Tour of Beijing. This year he already looked strong in the Dubai Tour and he was good in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad too.

 

However, everything had been planned for Gilbert to reach his highest level for the Ardennes classics. He crashed in the finale of Milan-Sanremo but apart from that incident he has had a perfect build-up. Recently, he did the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and despite the course being a lot tougher than usual, he did really well to finish the race in top 30.

 

Unlike last year, he failed to win Brabantse Pijl but this was certainly not due to a lack of strength. In fact, he seemed to be very comfortable when he covered all the moves behind teammate Ben Hermans and when he briefly went full gas, only Julian Alaphilippe could keep up with him. Due to Hermans’ presence in the break, we never got the chance to see what the former world champion was really capable of but it was hard not to the impression that he was the strongest rider in the race.

 

Gilbert has the explosiveness to drop everybody else on the Cauberg. Last year no one could follow him and according to sports director Yvon Ledanois he is even better now. Honestly, we doubt that anyone will be able to go with the Belgian when he drops the hammer and the main challenge could be to maintain his advantage all the way to the finish.

 

Last year there was a cross-tailwind in the final section but this year it will be a crosswind. This will make it harder to stay away. On the other hand, history shows that it is very hard to organize a chase in the final section and a lone rider will have a very good chance. However, Gilbert has to get rid of his rivals as the lack of cooperation in a group will probably mean that a bigger regrouping will take place. Furthermore, key rivals Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski are faster than Gilbert in a flat sprint and he will have to get rid of them before the finish.

 

It remains to be seen how BMC will approach the race. They have a formidable team, with Greg Van Avermaet and Samuel Sanchez playing the roles of co-captains. Last year they showed that they are ready to use their strength to ride aggressively and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Greg Van Avermaet on the attack in the final laps as he was 12 months ago. If a strong move stays clear, Gilbert will never get the chance to show his strength but if it comes down to a battle between the favourites, an in-form Gilbert is our favourite to win.

 

Alejandro Valverde is one of the most decorated riders in the Ardennes classics but for some reason he has never won the Amstel Gold Race. In both 2013 and 2014 he got very close but he narrowly missed out on the win. Two years ago he joined forces with Simon Gerrans and Philippe Gilbert after the Cauberg but they never managed to catch Roman Kreuziger. Last year he was unable to go with Gilbert and found himself with Michal Kwiatkowski and Gerrans in a group that failed to cooperate.

 

Valverde bounced back three days later with a win in Fleche Wallonne but there is no doubt that he will do his utmost to fill the obvious gap in his impressive palmares by winning the Amstel Gold Race. Like Gilbert, he would have had a bigger chance in the old finale but he definitely has the skills to shine in this finish too.

 

Valverde is perfectly suited to the Cauberg but he may not be quite as explosive as Gilbert on this kind of climb. Last year he was unable to go with the Belgian and this year it may be even harder for him. First of all, Gilbert seems to be a bit stronger than last year but more importantly Valverde doesn’t seem to have the edge that made the 2014 season his most successful yet. Last year he was almost unstoppable but this year he has not shown the same kind of form.

 

Valverde got his season off to the usual perfect start in Mallorca but it was a surprise to see him not win the Tour of Oman at a time of the year when he is usually unbeatable. He missed out on the victory in Strade Bianche where he faded in the finale. He would probably have won the Volta a Catalunya if he hadn’t crashed in stage 3 but compared to the best he suffered in the queen stage which was tailor-made for him. It is hard not to get the impression that Valverde is not as good as he was 12 months ago.

 

Last year Valverde arrived in the Ardennes on the back of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but this year he hasn’t raced since the GP Miguel Indurain where he won the battle of the pre-race favourites but missed out on the victory due to team tactics. Overall he has done a bit more racing but he has had longer time to rest up for his first big goals of the year. That makes it a bit hard to gauge his condition but there is no doubt that he will be at a very high level and that Movistar will be all for the Spaniard. Gilbert will have to be close to his best to drop Valverde who is faster than the Belgian in a flat sprint. However, things may be complicated for Valverde in the tactical finale where more riders may rejoin from behind and Valverde can expect to be isolated at the top of the Cauberg. The best option would be to ride away from everyone else as it may be hard to control the race if more riders are together. However, Michael Matthews is the only pre-race favourite who is faster than Valverde and this makes him one of the big favourites.

 

During the 2013 and 2014, Michal Kwiatkowski has emerged as one of the most consistent Ardennes riders in the world and it is only a matter of time before he takes his first big win in one of the hilly classics. In 2013, he only missed out on the top 5 in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and last year he was among the five best in all three races, finishing on the podium in the two Belgian races. With his explosiveness on short, steep climbs and his fast sprint, Kwiatkowski has all the means to win these races and only the Fleche Wallonne seems to be a slightly complicated affair for one of the super talents of the sport.

 

Last year Kwiatkowski arrived in the Netherlands on the back of a very heavy season where he had been riding fast all the way since the beginning of February. He managed to maintain his high level until the end of the Ardennes week but after a good start to the Tour de Romandie, he memorably exploded due to the heavy fatigue. This year he wants to avoid burning out in this way and so he has both been racing less and been at a lower level in the early races and so he is probably fresher this time.

 

It is hard to gauge how Kwiatkowski is compared to last year. In Paris-Nice he gave the impression that he had taken another step up as he was suddenly able to mix it up with the best on the long climbs. In the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, however, he seemed not to be quite as strong as in 2014. The course may not have suited him too much but his poor time trial and suffering in the queen stage don’t suggest that he has taken that extra step which will allow him to go from podium contender to winner.

 

On the other hand, the new racing schedule means that Kwiatkowski may come into this race a bit stronger and due to his age, there is still room for lots of improvement. He is one of the strongest in this terrain and last year only Gilbert managed to drop him on the Cauberg. He is very fast in a sprint and may even be able to beat Valverde in a final dash to the line. We doubt that he will be strong enough to take a solo victory but if a small group arrives at the finish, he will be very hard to beat. Furthermore, he has shown that he has the panache to try an earlier move if he sees an opportunity and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the rainbow jersey on the attack even before we get to the Cauberg.

 

Last year Michael Matthews gave the Amstel Gold Race his first real crack and he did really well by finishing the race in 12th, finishing with the third chase group behind Philippe Gilbert and Jelle Vanendert. Back then, he went into the race as Orica-GreenEDGE’s second option but this year he is the sole leader as Simon Gerrans is still building form after his series of bad luck.

 

Compared to last year, Matthews has taken another step up. He has lost a bit of weight and both Paris-Nice and Vuelta al Pais Vasco showed that he is climbing better than last year. In the French race, he stayed with the best in the very hard stage to Nice for a long time and in the Spanish event he survived some very tough climbing to win stage 1. In Milan-Sanremo, he was even strong enough to go with the attacks on the Poggio before sprinting to third.

 

For the second year in a row, Matthews sprinted to second in Brabantse Pijl but this year he was the fastest in the group of favourites. Only the strong team tactics by BMC and a surprisingly weak Orica-GreenEDGE line-up that was completely unsuited to that kind of tough race, prevented him from winning the race. He seemed to be at ease for most of the race and was in a class of his own in the final sprint.

 

In the Amstel Gold Race, he will be supported by a much stronger team but this time they are unlikely to take full responsibility in the way they did in Brabantse Pijl. Instead, they may use their many strong cards to go with the attacks while Matthews will save himself for a final sprint. There is no doubt that the likes of Gilbert, Valverde and Kwiatkowski will be stronger on the Cauberg and Matthews won’t be with the first riders at the top. However, he won’t be far off the mark and if the escapees start to look at each other, a regrouping is likely to take place. With a strong team to support him, he may even have a teammate who can help control what will be a very hectic part of the race. As there will be no tailwind, a sprint from a bigger group is more likely and this plays into the hands of Matthews who will be very hard to beat in that race scenario.

 

Dan Martin has emerged as one of the best one-day riders in the world. The Irishman may not win an awful lot of races but he is one of the best at reaching his big goals. He has already won the two monuments that are within his reach and he has also taken the win in his favourite stage race, the Volta a Catalunya. This speaks volumes about his physical capabilities, his tactical strength and his ability to time his moves in the finale.

 

Martin’s build-up to the Ardennes classics is very similar to the one he has had in the very successful 2013 and 2014 seasons. Last year he had done a bit more training at altitude as his main goal was the Giro d’Italia and this year he hopes to be a bit fresher. As usual, he has not been at his very best in the first part of the year but compared to last year he was better in Catalunya and he hopes that this will serve him well in the hilly one-day races.

 

There is no doubt that Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege suit him better than Amstel Gold Race in which he has never really been a contender. However, that is mainly due to bad luck. In 2013, he had a small injury and in 2014 he crashed in the Dutch race. There is no doubt that he has the means to win on this kind of course.

 

Martin is not as explosive as the likes of Valverde and Gilbert but he is very strong in this terrain and has a fast sprint. However, his biggest asset is probably his ability to launch an unexpected move in the way he did in last year’s Il Lombardia. He knows that it will be hard for him to beat Valverde and Kwiatkowski in a sprint but he will know how to exploit the tactical battle at the top of the Cauberg. If he can escape with one or two riders, he is very likely to be the fastest. Martin has proved that he can shine in the longest races and if he can avoid getting caught up behind a crash due to his lazy positioning in the peloton, there is a big chance that he will add the Amstel Gold Race to his growing palmares.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez has finished second in this race in 2011 and back then it seemed to just be a matter of time before he would win the Dutch classic. If anyone has been hurt by the new finale, however, Rodriguez is definitely the one who has suffered the most. Due to his explosiveness, he has often been among the strongest on the Cauberg but he is not very fast in a flat sprint. To win the race, he has to distance the likes of Gilbert, Valverde and Kwiatkowski on the climb and then maintain a gap in the final flat kilometre which doesn’t suit him at all. Things have definitely become more complicated for Rodriguez.

 

However, we have never really had the chance to see what Rodriguez can do in this finale as he has crashed out of contention in both 2013 and 2014. This year he arrives at the race with more confidence as he has just taken a maiden victory in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco after having done a surprisingly good time trial on the final day. That race showed that he is back to his best after a year of bad luck and proved that he can still get close to his former level.

 

Unfortunately, Cauberg is not steep enough for Rodriguez and it may be hard for him to make the difference that will allow him to get clear. However, he could find himself in a small group at the top and in the tactical battle, he may manage to escape.

 

Sergio Henao has had an impressive comeback after his bad injury and few had expected him to already be able to contend with the best at the WorldTour level. After a solid showing in Coppi e Bartali, he was simply the strongest rider in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and only his lack of time trialling skills prevented him from winning the race.

 

Henao will have his best chance in Fleche Wallonne which is tailor-made for him but he has the punch to make the difference on the Cauberg too. Like Rodriguez, he will have no chance in a sprint against the likes of Valverde, Kwiatkowski and Gilbert but he could easily find himself with the best at the top of the climb. Then he has the right aggressive mindset to make a brave move in the finale.

 

Tom Dumoulin continues to improve and there seems to be no limit for the big Dutchman. He may be mostly known for his TT skills but he excels in most disciplines. He is a decent climber and very explosive too which makes him perfectly suited to the Amstel Gold Race.

 

Dumoulin was riding very strongly in the Tour Down Under but had a major setback when he fell ill before Paris-Nice. However, he has clearly timed his condition for his first big objective perfectly. In the Vuelta al Pais Vasco he climbed strongly in stage 3 and then saved energy for the time trial. Here he proved his good form by beating the climbers on a course that was much better suited to lighter riders. On Sunday, he finds himself in much better terrain. He probably won’t be able to follow Gilbert on the Cauberg but he could ride aggressively before or after the climb. Due to his TT skills, he will be very hard to catch and he has a fast sprint to finish it off from a small group.

 

Lotto Soudal have often struggled in the classics but this year they go into the race with one of the strongest teams. The Belgians have three cards to play and they all have a solid chance.

 

Tony Gallopin is tailor-made for the Ardennes classics but as he is also strong in the Flemish races, he has usually done both kinds of races. This year he is fully focused on the hilly races and has skipped the cobbles completely. Instead, he has followed the traditional build-up that includes a training camp and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

 

He rode solidly in Spain but he didn’t seem to be at his best yet. He did well in Brabantse Pijl where he was third but still didn’t give the impression that he is at 100%. However, he is likely to improve for the Amstel Gold Race which is his first big goal and which suits him pretty well. To win the race, he will have to ride aggressively in the finale and with his fast sprint, he could come away with the win from a small group.

 

Jelle Vanendert rarely shows anything before he lines up in the Ardennes but here he is usually at a very high level. This year he has been riding better than usual and this indicates that he is fully ready for his preferred events. The Amstel Gold Race is clearly the one that suits him the least but for some reason he has had his best results here. The new finale is a clear disadvantage but last year he managed to use the tactical battle to get away and take second behind Gilbert. With his good form, he could again find himself in a small group at the top and due to his slow sprint, he will probably not be too heavily marked. This could allow him to create another surprise.

 

One of the most consistent riders in this race is Enrico Gasparotto who has finished on the in the top 10 four times since 2010 and even won the race in 2012. This year he is the leader of the Wanty team and he has had a very traditional build-up. As usual, he has not shown much form but by the time we get to the Amstel Gold Race he is always riding very strongly. He is perfectly suited to the hilly terrain and is one of the fastest in the sprint. A few riders are stronger than him on the Cauberg but if a regrouping takes place he may turn out to be the fastest.

 

Rui Costa has always done very well in the hilly one-day races. He has won the world championships and he is always one of the strongest in the Canadian WorldTour races. However, he has never had too much success in the Ardennes as he has often been working for Valverde and last year he didn’t time his condition perfectly. This year things are much better for the former world champion who rode very strongly in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and he should definitely be one of the strongest on the Cauberg. As he proved in the World Championships, he knows how to exploit a tactical battle and he has a fast sprint which could allow him to finish it off if he has a few riders for company.

 

Gilbert is definitely the main man for BMC but as we saw last year, the American team may ride aggressively. In 2014 they played the Greg Van Avermaet card in the finale and this could again be the case in 2015. The Belgian is clearly in great condition as he finished third in Paris-Roubaix and he is usually able to maintain his condition for this race. In this terrain, he is one of the strongest and if he is part of a group that stays away in the finale, he will be very hard to beat.

 

Last year we didn’t get the chance to see what Arthur Vichot can do in these races as he missed them due to injury. However, the former French champion is tailor-made for this terrain as he has proved in the Canadian WorldTour races. He has not hit peak condition yet but he is clearly getting better and better. He may have timed things perfectly and if that’s the case he could create a surprise.

 

The same can be said about Fabio Felline who has had an impressive spring season. The Italian defied expectations when he finished third in the very mountainous Criterium International and he rode strongly in both the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and Brabantse Pijl. He is clearly climbing better than ever and he is perfectly suited to this terrain. As Bauke Mollema has been set back by a crash, he may get the chance to ride for himself. He won’t be with the best at the top of the Cauberg but if he attacks, he has the speed to win from a small group.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE are supporting Michael Matthews but they probably want to avoid a repeat of Brabantse Pijl where they found themselves on the defensive. Like last year they may ride aggressively and this could open the door for Michael Albasini. The Swiss has never had much success in this race but the terrain suits him really well and he was riding better than usual in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. If he is in a small group that attacks in the finale, he is a master in finishing it off as he has proved in almost every WorldTour stage race on the calendar.

 

Finally, Tim Wellens is the third Lotto Soudal card and he is knocking on the door for a big classics result. Last year the Belgian attacked in the finale but since he got through last year’s Giro, he has become a lot stronger. In the Eneco Tour, he won the queen stage which proves that he is among the strongest in this terrain. He won’t win if it comes down to a battle with the favourites but don’t be surprised if the aggressive mindset pays off for the talented Belgian

 

***** Philippe Gilbert

**** Alejandro Valverde, Michal Kwiatkowski

*** Michael Matthews, Dan Martin, Joaquim Rodriguez, Sergio Henao, Tom Dumoulin

** Tony Gallopin, Jelle Vanendert, Rui Costa, Enrico Gasparotto, Greg Van Avermaet, Arthur Vichot, Fabio Felline, Michael Albasini, Tim Wellens

* Daniel Moreno, Giampaolo Caruso, Samuel Sanchez, Ben Hermans, Jan Bakelants, Rinaldo Nocentini, Vincenzo Nibali, Jakob Fuglsang, Diego Rosa, Luis Leon Sanchez, Lieuwe Westra, Julian Alaphilippe, Tony Martin, Sylvain Chavanel, Dries Devenyns, Rafael Valls, Giovanni Visconti, Gorka Izagirre, Simon Gerrans, Simon Clarke, Nathan Haas, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Ramunas Navardauskas, Warren Barguil, Paul Martens, Nicolas Roche, Wout Poels, Roman Kreuziger, Michael Valgren, Bob Jungels, Enrico Battaglin, Davide Rebellin, Maciej Paterski, Damiano Cunego, Maurits Lammertink, Bjorn Leukemans, Marco Marcato