The sprinters missed out on a big opportunity to sprint for the win in the first stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné but they will have a chance to make amends already on the second day. Stage 2 has a completely flat finale and with several ambitious sprinters at the start line, there is no doubt that the fast finishers will do their utmost to bring it back together for a bunch kick before the riders get to the high mountains later in the week.

 

The course

The Criterium du Dauphiné is in the category of mountainous WorldTour races that leave very little room for pure sprinters. Like the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and the Volta a Catalunya, it doesn’t offer many kilometres of flat roads and so it is no surprise that the major Tour de France sprinters always skip the French race. Instead, they head to the Tour de Suisse or the sprint festival at the Ster ZLM Toer and leave the room for other fast finishers to shine in France.

 

The stronger sprinters who can climb well, usually have several opportunities in the Dauphiné and it won’t be any different in 2015. After the opening stage, they will get another chance in stage 2 which could actually have been an opportunity for the pure sprinters too. Like any other Dauphiné stage, it includes a significant amount of climbing but as it all comes pretty early in the stage, the pace may be so slow that even the heavy guys would have had a chance to stay in contact.

 

The 173km stage brings the riders from Le Bourgec-du-Lac to Villars-les-Dombes in the flat western part of the region. The race gets off to a very tough start as the riders will go straight up the category 2 Col du Chat (2.8km, 6.8%). After a short rolling section and a descent, the riders get to a flat section before tey hit the bottom of the first major climb of the race. The category 1 Col de Cuvery (8.7km, 6.7%) is a very regular climb with a steep penultimate kilometre that averages 9.2%.

 

The summit comes at the 74km mark and leads to a long, gradually descending section which ends after around 115km of racing. From there, the road is completely flat as the riders travel in a southwesterly direction to the finish in Villars-les-Dombes. In the final five kilometres, there is no elevation difference at all.

 

In recent years, Villars-les-Dombes has hosted a few stage starts but it has not hosted a stage finish for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The 2015 Criterium du Dauphiné is like to be an unusually wet affair but at least the riders will get the race off to a nice start. Today they escaped the rain and tomorrow they should again enjoy a dry day in the saddle. In fact, there will be plenty of sunshine and a maximum temperature of 25 degrees which could make the heat a small issue.

 

However, the most testing element is likely to be the strong northerly wind. It means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part until they are close to the summit of the category 1 climb. From there, they will turn into a crosswind and that will make things tough for the remaining part of the stage. As the riders get to the finishing city, they will turn into a headwind for the finale.

 

The favourites

The Cote du Villards turned out to be manageable for the sprinters as most of them survived the climbing. However, it was always obvious that the finale would be hard to control and a very strong Peter Kennaugh made all their suffering useless as they were left to sprint for second place.

 

That leaves them with just two more chances to test their legs and luckily those two stages should be a bit easier to handle. With 60 completely flat kilometres in the finale, tomorrow’s stage is probably the easiest of the entire race and it will be a big surprise if the fast finishers won’t be battling it out for the stage win in the end.

 

There’s a significant amount of climb in the early part of the stage and a category 1 climb is definitely no easy thing for the sprinters. However, both climbs come very early in the stage and there will even be a headwind in the first part of the stage. This means that the pace on the main climb of the day is likely to be pretty slow as there is no real incentive for anyone to ride aggressively in this part of the stage. The sprint teams will probably be intact when they crest the summit and there will be plenty of time to bring the early break back.

 

With a tough category 2 climb right from the beginning of the stage, we can expect a tough start. Lots of riders will be keen to pick up the KOM points that are available just 3km after the start and they can be in the mix without too much of an effort. However, those points won’t decide the mountains classification in the end and to get the chance to wear the jersey, one needs to be in the early break and pick up more points on the main climb. Hence, they need to press on after the climb.

 

Everybody knows that this will be a day for the sprinters and so the mountains jersey is the only real incentive to join the early break. Shortly after the first climb, we can expect a small group to go clear and then Sky will set the early pace to keep the situation under control.

 

The British team will be keen to save as much energy as possible for the team time trial and they will do nothing to bring the early break back. However, there are unusually many sprinters in this year’s race and this means that there should be plenty of firepower to bring the early break back. Today they worked well together and tomorrow we can expect Lampre-Merida, Cofidis, Giant-Alpecin and Lotto Soudal to make an alliance in the peloton.

 

They will probably hit the front pretty early and go slowly up the main climb before they hit the gas. After the summit, they may even get some help from the GC teams. The very strong crosswind in the second half of the stage, could make it a very nervous affair. Everybody wants to be in a good position and the fight will be enough to raise the speed significantly, making things easy for the sprinters.

 

Whether the peloton will split depends on how exposed the roads are but it would be no surprise to see teams like BMC, Sky, Etixx-QuickStep and Cannondale-Garmin who all have lots of classics riders, try to make an attack. It won’t be impossible to create some echelons and the stage could turn out to be more exciting than one would expect.

 

However, the nervousness also means that the break will have no chance and it will be a big surprise if the stage will not be decided in a sprint. It may not be an intact peloton that decides the stage but a fast finisher should prevail.

 

On paper, Nacer Bouhanni is the fastest rider in this race but he came up a bit short in today’s sprint. He was poorly positioned but also seemed to lack a bit of speed in the finale. The result is just another disappointment in a long list of frustrations for the Frenchman who hasn’t achieved the kind of success that was expected.

 

Bouhanni doesn’t seem to have the speed he had in 2014 but he is still a very fast and very consistent sprinter. Furthermore, he has one of the best lead-outs in this race. Christophe Laporte, Julien Simon, Florian Senechal and Geoffrey Soupe should all be able to form a great train for the former French champion who is always great at positioning himself. He rarely gets caught out in the crosswinds and his recent performances indicate that he is in good condition. Bouhanni may not have had his best season yet but if his team can time things right, tomorrow should be the day when he finally takes a WorldTour win for his new team.

 

His biggest rival could be Sacha Modolo. The Italian won two stages in the Giro d’Italia and today he was again the fastest in the bunch sprint. That was a bit of a surprise as he doesn’t have a real lead-out train in this race. In the Giro, his wins were mainly due his excellent team and less about his own speed. However, he still managed to position himself well in today’s finale and managed to pass Boasson Hagen just before the line.

 

Tomorrow the peloton should be a bit bigger and it will be harder for Modolo to come to the fore. However, he can still rely on Filippo Pozzato to bring him into position and he usually handles the positioning reasonably well. He will be very motivated as a second place would be enough to take the yellow jersey,At the moment, he seems to be in very good condition and so it won’t be impossible for him to overcome his lack of team support to take another win.

 

It was no surprise that today’s stage was too hard for Kris Boeckmans but tomorrow the in-form Belgian will be ready to shine. With overall victories in the World Ports Classic and the Tour de Picardie, he has been impressively strong during the month of May and those wins can just be added to his list of great achievements in 2015. With Tosh van der Sande, Tony Gallopin, Tiesj Benoot and Pim Ligthart at his side, Boeckmans has a very strong team to support him and on paper he is one of the fastest riders in this field. Last year he missed out on a victory in this race by a very tiny margin. Tomorrow he may make up for that disappointment.

 

Luka Mezgec has not had any luck recently. Today he was again taken out of contention by a puncture and so he never got the chance to sprint. Even though he failed to win a stage, he seemed to end the Giro strongly and he is clearly in very good condition. He likes this kind of hilly races where he is usually one of the freshest at the finish and he should be one of the fatsest in this race. He doesn’t have a great lead-out though and that could be detrimental to his chances.

 

Today Edvald Boasson Hagen did a very long sprint and he showed that he is already in excellent condition after his recent injury as only Modolo managed to pass him. However, tomorrow’s stage suits him less as he needs a harder race to really excel and he usually has a hard time in the real bunch sprints. On paper, tomorrow’s stage should be one for his teammate Tyler Farrar but as Boasson Hagen can take the yellow jersey, we expect MTN-Qhubeka to ride in support of their Norwegian. With Farrar and Reinardt van Rensburg to lead him out, he has a formidable team at his side and this could make all the difference for Boasson Hagen who may overcome his lack of speed to win the stage.

 

Today’s stage was also too hard for Jonas Vangenechten but tomorrow should be a day for the Belgian. He joined IAM to get more chances to sprint for himself but until now he has been unable to live up to his great 2014 season. However, he has shown good condition in the Tour of Belgium and the Bayern Rundfahrt and with Vicente Reynes and David Tanner, he has a good lead-out train. On paper he should be one of the fastest in this field.

 

Today Magnus Cort was dropped on the final climb and so it was left to Simon Gerrans to sprint for Orica-GreenEDGE. Tomorrow the Dane should be able to survive the climbing and this will make him the protected rider for the Australian team. On paper he is not fast enough to win this kind of stage but as he will be backed by one of the best trains that includes Jens Keukeleire and Gerrans, he could take an upset win at the WorldTour level.

 

Today’s stage may be the best chance for Tyler Farrar who is usually faster than his teammate Boasson Hagen. Hence, MTN-Qhubeka may decide to give the American his chance and this could turn out to be a wise decision. Farrar is one of the fastest riders in this field and with van Rensburg and Boasson Hagen at his side, he could be given the perfect lead-out that allows him to win the stage.

 

Today things didn’t work out for Ramunas Navarduaskas but he will be keen to try again tomorrow. The easier sprint doesn’t suit him as well as today’s tough finale. However, he has improved his sprinting a lot and last year he was even third on the Champs-Elysees. If Nathan Haas can put him into position, he could create a surprise.

 

Kevin Reza was dropped in today’s stage which should actually have been a good one for him. He seems to be a bit tired after the Giro but in this easier finale he should be in contention. He is usually not fast enough to win this kind of real bunch sprints but with Mickael Delage at his side, he has one of the best lead-out men. If he can deliver the Frenchman well, a surprise may be in store.

 

Yannick Martinez is not a rider for the real sprints and like Reza and Navarduaskas he usually needs a harder race to shine. Today he again came up short as he could only manage 12th but he will be eager to give it another try tomorrow. He is unlikely to win the stage but he could finish on the podium if he manages to position himself well.

 

Julian Alpahilippe has had an amazing season and he was expected to do well in today’s stage. However, he did a poor sprint. Tomorrow he has another chance but hat stage doesn’t suit him too well. He probably doesn’t have the speed to win but with Tony Martin to support him in the finale, he could sprint to another top 3 result.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: Sacha Modolo, Kris Boeckmans

Outsiders: Luka Mezgec, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jonas Vangenechten, Magnus Cort

Jokers: Tyler Farrar, Ramunas Navardauskas, Kevin Reza, Yannick Martinez, Julian Alaphilippe, Samuel Dumoulin, Alexey Tsatevich, Daniel Oss