The team time trial created the first time differences and many riders will be keen to strike back and gain some time back in the mountains. However, they will have to wait for another day before they get the chance to test themselves on the big climbs as the mammoth fourth stage should offer the sprinters one final chance to shine before the climbing gets serious in the final half of the race

 

The course

While the second half of the race is completely reserved for climbers and GC riders, the first half is for the sprinters. The GC riders had to be on their toes in the team time trial but otherwise the first four days are all about survival. The final opportunity for the fast finishers comes in stage 4 which is again tailor-made for the kind of sprinters who head to the Dauphiné.

 

At 228km the stage is unusually long for a race that is usually characterized by relatively short stages. It starts in Anneyron in the flat western part of the region and brings the riders in a southeasterly direction to Sisteron which is located on the outskirts of the major climbs, meaning that the terrain gradually gets hillier. The first 100km have some small rolling hills but are mostly flat.

 

At this point, the riders hit a long, gradual uphill section that culminates with the category 3 Col de Lescou (3.9km, 4.7%). It leads straight to the bottom of the category 4 Col de Pre-Guittard which summits at the 127.5km mark. The subsequent descent brings them to another gradual uphill section which ends after 170km if racing. From there, the roads are very slightly descending all the way to the finish in Sisteron but have a small sting in its tail. The category 4 Cote de la Marquise (1.3km, 6.7%) summits 12.5km from the finish and is followed by another small climb before the riders get back onto flat roads. There’s a small uphill section between the 3km to 2km to go marks but otherwise the final part is flat.

 

Sisteron last hosted a stage finish in this race in 2004 when Stuart O’Grady beat George Hincapie in a two-rider sprint on a day when a breakaway made it to the finish. It has often featured in Paris-Nice, most recently in 2012 when Luis Leon Sanchez beat Jens Voigt in a two-rider sprint. In 2008, Carlos Barredo was the strongest from a breakaway, in 2001 Alex Zülle narrowly held off the peloton, in 2000 Matteo Tosatto made a similar performance and in 1999 it was Jacky Durand who denied the sprinters in Sisteron.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Until now the riders have avoided the rain which is still forecasted to dominate the final part of the race. Tomorrow it will be a bit trickier as showers are forecasted for the late afternoon which means that it could be a wet finale. There will be a bit of sunshine at the start but it will mostly be a cloudy day with a maximum temperature of 21 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind almost all day. After the first two climbs, there will be a short crosswind section before the riders turn into a cross-headwind. There will be a crosswind on the final climb and then a headwind before the riders turn into a tailwind for the final few kilometres.

 

The favourites

The time gaps in the team time trial were probably a bit bigger than most had expected. Chris Froome was visibly frustrated when he crossed the line and he clearly hadn’t expected to lose more than 30 seconds to several of his key rivals for the overall win. More importantly, the result was not very encouraging for the Tour de France where the team time trial is longer and harder and comes at a later point where bigger differences can be made.

 

Froome will be keen to strike back as soon as the peloton hits the mountains but first he needs to survive the longest stage of the race. The 226km from Anneyron to Sisteron is not a day for the GC riders to make a move but the massive distance will be felt in the riders’ legs when they head out for the first mountain stage on Thursday.

 

While the GC riders just hope to get safely through the day – which may not be an easy thing as Froome’s crash in last year’s edition of the race proves – the sprinters will be keen to leave their mark a final time before they turn into survival mode – or leave the race. There may be a few climbs on the course but none of them are very difficult and should be manageable for most of the sprinters in this race. Of course the distance will take its toll but as there will be a headwind for most of the day, it won’t be too hard to follow the peloton for most of the day.

 

Bigger time gaps have now opened up but everybody knows that the sprinters want to control this stage firmly. Hence, there won’t be much of a fight to join the early break and the headwind will do nothing to enhance the attacking spirit. Early in the stage a small break is likely to be formed and then BMC will set a steady pace in the first part before the sprint teams come to the fore.

 

In such a long stage, the time gap will probably be pretty big before the sprinters ask their teammates to start the chase. It will require a massive effort to ride on the front on such a long stage and it will be interesting to see which teams are ready to commit themselves to the work. Of course Cofidis will be expected to carry the main workload and they should get a bit of assistance from Giant-Alpecin who still hope to end Luka Mezgec’s string of bad luck. Lotto Soudal may also lend a hand but it will definitely be felt that Lampre-Merida have now abandoned the chase work after Sacha Modolo has left the race.

 

The first climbs won’t do much to challenge the sprinters but the finale will be difficult to control. In stage 1, the final climb was located at a similar distance to the finish and here a strong Peter Kennaugh managed to escape with a late attack. Several riders will be keen to use a similar tactic tomorrow and we can expect lots of attacks on the final two climbs.

 

However, the climbs are both easier than the Cote du Villards which made the difference in stage 1. Furthermore, they only have to go up the final climb once which should make it easier for the sprinters and their domestiques to survive the challenges. Finally, the headwind will make it more difficult for the late attackers to stay clear. On the other hand, the longer distance will make the riders more tired and this could turn the race into one for attackers.

 

The sprint teams don’t want to miss this opportunity and so the early break won’t have a chance. However, a late attack can definitely pay off and it won’t be impossible for a strong rider to repeat Kennaugh’s effort. As tactics in a small group is likely to play a role in the finale, one probably has to be alone in the final two kilometres to make it to the finish and so the most likely scenario is a bunch sprint. However, there are definitely no guarantees for the sprinters in such a tricky finale.

 

Yesterday Nacer Bouhanni underlined his status as the fastest rider in the peloton and he will be keen to take a second victory. Some of his rival sprinters may be favoured more by the harder course but a tough race is definitely no disadvantage for an in-form Bouhanni. He is very strong on shorter climbs and even nearly won a very tough stage dominated by GC riders at last year’s Vuelta.

 

Furthermore, Bouhanni has a great team to support him. Geoffrey Soupe is a very valuable lead-out man and he is a good climber too. The same goes for Florian Senechal and Julien Simon who both have the speed to keep him in position in a hectic finale. Even if they have to work hard to bring back late attackers, Bouhanni will still be the man to beat as he is great at positioning himself. When it comes to pure speed, he is in a class of his own and there is a big chance that he will take a second win tomorrow.

 

His biggest rival should be Edvald Boasson Hagen. The Norwegian is already back in good condition after he broke his collarbone in Gent-Wevelgem. He is both climbing well as he proved when he won a stage in the Tour des Fjords and was a strong GC contender in the Tour of Norway, and sprinting really well as he proved when he was third in stage 1. In that stage, he was really impressive as he did a very long sprint and still managed to take second in the sprint.

 

Boasson Hagen will clearly be favoured by the harder race and he can even count on the best lead-out in the race. Reinardt van Rensburg has proved his skills in the first two sprints and have delivered the Norwegian on the front. In stage 2, he rode way too long into a headwind but tomorrow he will be favoured by a tailwind. If van Rensburg can again drop him off on the front, Boasson Hagen may take another stage victory in the Criterium du Dauphiné.

 

The 2015 season has been frustrating for Luka Mezgec who didn’t have any success in the Giro d’Italia. In this race he has more bad luck as he could only manage 10th in stage 2 and was taken out of contention by a puncture in stage 1. However, he is still one of the fastest riders in this peloton and as he is a great climber, he should be favoured by the tougher finale. He doesn’t have the best lead-out in this race but he is usually pretty good at positioning himself. When it comes to speed at the end of a hard race, he is probably Bouhanni’s biggest rival.

 

Kris Boeckmans was hugely frustrated as he crashed out of contention in stage 2. He now only has one chance left in this race and he will be keen to put his great condition on show. He has won five races in less than a month and today he again proved that he is riding extremely well when he finished with his best teammates in the team time trial. When it comes down to pure speed, he is close to Mezgec’s and Bouhanni’s level and his main challenge will be to survive the climb. Stage 1 was too hard for him but this time the easier climbs should give him a bigger chance.

 

In stage 2, Jonas Van Genechten probably did the fastest sprint but he had to settle for sixth as he came from too far back. That was very similar to stage 2 of the Tour of Belgium where he was probably also the fastest but again was poorly positioned. There is no doubt that he has the speed to win in this race and it all comes down to a question of team support. On paper, the team is strong and Vicente Reynes should act as a great lead-out man. The final climb may be a bit too tough for him but if can survive he should be one of the fastest.

 

It will be interesting to see how Orica-GreenEDGE approach this stage. They can do the sprint for Simon Gerrans, Jens Keukeleire and Magnus Cort and it remains to be seen who their protected rider will be. Going into the race, Cort was the main sprinter but as he is coming back from illness he has not had his chance yet. A final decision will probably be made during the race and the one who gets the nod, can rely on a formidable lead-out. There are faster riders than those three riders but at the end of a hard race, they should be able to do better than one would think.

 

Samuel Dumoulin is no pure sprinter but in this race he has been sprinting surprisingly well. For him to take second in a pure sprint is a really remarkable performance. He admits that he doesn’t have the speed to win these sprints and that he used his head more than his legs to achieve the result. With a tailwind, it will be more difficult for Dumoulin to make a similar performance but with a tough finale, he may be fresher than his rivals.

 

We were pretty surprised that Alexey Tsatevich was dropped in stage 1 as he is usually a very good climber. However, he bounced back with a great fifth place in stage 2 and he can be expected to continue the upwards trend tomorrow. The hard finish should suit him well and if he has his usual legs, he should be fresher than his rivals. He probably doesn’t have the speed to win but he could sprint himself onto the podium.

 

As said, a late attack could also pay off in this stage and there are several good candidates to surprise the sprinters. The prime pick has to be Daniel Oss who was impressive in stage 1 where he attacked several times. The Italian is both strong on short climbs, has the firepower to keep the peloton and is fast in a sprint.

 

If Boeckmans is dropped, Tiesj Benoot will probably try his hand in the sprint but he is unlikely to beat the likes of Bouhanni. His best chance to win a stage may come from a breakaway late in the stage. The Belgian has had an impressive debut season and was remarkably strong in the Tour of Belgium queen stage. This terrain should suit him and he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Like Benoot, Julian Alaphilippe will test himself in the sprint but he lacks the speed to win. His best option will be a late attack and he has all the skills to finish it off as he is strong on the climbs and fast in a sprint. He has not been feeling good in the first few days but it is difficult to hold such a talented bike rider back.

 

Cyril Gautier has had an illness-marred spring season but he is now back in good condition for the Tour de France. He attacked in the finale of stage 1 and there is little doubt that he will try again tomorrow. He is fast in a sprint and strong on the climbs which should give him cards to play.

 

Astana are eagerly waiting for the mountains but they will also ride aggressively in the finale of tomorrow’s stage. Andriy Grivko seems to be riding very well at the moment and Lieuwe Westra and Rein Taaramae also have the right attacking nature to try their hand in this terrain. They are all strong on the flats and could be the ones to repeat Kennaugh’s feat.

 

Tony Martin seems to be riding very well as he builds condition for stage 1 of the Tour de France. He tested himself in the finale of stage 1 and tomorrow he will probably try again. Of course he won’t win a sprint from a small group but everyone knows that you can’t give the strong German an inch in this kind of finale.

 

UPDATE: Orica-GreenEDGE have confirmed that they will ride for Simon Gerrans in the finale

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Luka Mezgec

Outsiders: Kris Boeckmans, Jonas Van Genechten, Simon Gerrans, Jens Keukeleire, Samuel Dumoulin

Jokers: Magnus Cort, Alexey Tsatevich, Ramunas Navardauskas, Daniel Oss (breakaway), Tiesj Benoot (breakaway), Julian Alaphilippe (breakaway or sprint), Cyril Gautier (breakaway), Andriy Grivko (breakaway), Lieuwe Westra (breakaway), Rein Taaramae (breakaway), Tony Martin (breakaway)