The Criterium du Dauphiné is known as a race for climbers but until now they have not had a chance to show themselves. In the final half of the race, they won’t lack opportunities to test their Tour de France condition as the final four stage all include big summit finishes and it all kicks off with a big dress rehearsal of stage 17 of the Tour when the riders battle it out in the Pra Loup climb that will give us the first big indication of who is going to win one of the most prestigious one-week races in the world.

 

The course

Since ASO took over the reins in the Criterium du Dauphiné, they have made stronger links between the courses for the Tour de France and its traditional preparation race. However, in the first few years they have only had one stage that was completely identical to one that would feature in the French grand tour – in 2011 when the race included the exact same time trial that would decide the Tour later that year.

 

This year they have again decided to include a stage that is identical to one that will feature in the Tour. After four days  during which only the team time trial have created any time differences between the overall contenders, the GC battle will heat up with the first of four tough stages in the mountains. Stage 5 is probably the second hardest of the quartet, is identical to stage 17 of this year’s Tour and will give the first clear indication of who’s going to win the race.

 

The stage brings the riders over 161km from Digne-les-Bains on the outskirts of the Alps to a summit finish on the category 2 climb of Pra Loup. In the first part, the riders will head along mainly flat roads in a southeasterly direction before they get to the first climb, the category 3 Col des Leques (6km, 5.3%) which summits at the 24.5km mark. From there, the riders will travel in a northerly direction for the rest of the stage as they head into the Alps and hillier terrain.

 

The first part of this section is made up of two relatively easy climbs and subsequent descents. First the riders will tackle the category 3 Col de Toutes Aures (6.1km, 3.1%) and then they face the Col de la Colle-Saint-Michel (11km, 5.2%). The summit of the latter is located 65km from the finish and is followed by a short descent and a gradually rising road that leads to the bottom of the main challenge, the category 1 Col d’Allos (14km, 5.5%). It’s a pretty irregular climb with a few steep kilometres along the way, mainly near the top where the final 6km are particularly hard.

 

The summit is located 22km from the finish and the final part is first made up of a very long and pretty technical descent that leads straight to the bottom of the Pra Loup climb. It’s a relatively short 6.2km ascent with an average gradient of 6.5%. The second and the fourth kilometres are pretty easy but otherwise the climb has a gradient of 7-9%.

 

The final climb of Pra Loup has only been used a stage finish in the Tour de France twice, most famously in 1975 when Bernard Thevenet won the stage on a day that marked the end to Eddy Merckx’s reign. It was used again in 1980 when Jos De Schoenmacker won the stage. It has only very rarely been used for professional bike races.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had their first taste of rain in today’s stage and this was just an appetizer for the wet conditions that will mar the final three stages. However, they will get one more day in the sun before the rain will make its entrance as tomorrow will be a great day for a bike race. It will be a sunny morning and even though it will get cloudier as the day goes on, the riders could not have asked for better conditions. The temperature at the bottom of the final climb will reach a maximum of 13 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part of the stage until they get to the top of the first climb. Then they will face a crosswind before they turn into a cross-tailwind just before the feed zone. That will assist them for most of the remaning part of the stage. On the final climb, they will have a tailwind.

 

The favourites

Apart from the team time trial, the first part of the Criterium du Dauphiné has been all about survival for the GC riders. They have eagerly been waiting for the chance to test their form on the big climbs and now the waiting time is finally over. Tomorrow we will get the first big indication of who’s going well less than a month before the start of the Tour de France.

 

Stage 5 is important for several reasons. First of all the fact that the stage is identical to one that will feature in the Tour de France, means that it is one of the main drawcards that has prompted the Tour contenders to include the Dauphiné on the schedule. Secondly, it will be the scene of the first big battle among the GC contenders in this race and everybody is always extra nervous before the first big test in the mountains.

 

Until now we have not had much of a chance to see who is going well and as most of the GC riders have not been racing for more than a month, they are all a bit in the unknown. This always makes the first mountain stage of the Dauphiné highly unpredictable. However, different riders have different ways of preparing for the Tour de France and there is some kind of systematism in which riders are going well in the preparation races.

 

In general, breakaways often have a good chance in mountain stages and at least one stage in the Dauphiné is usually won from a long-distance attack. Tomorrow we can again expect a fast start to the stage with lots of attacks and it will probably take some time for the early break to be formed. The mountains jersey will be up for grabs and this will be an extra incentive for riders to go on the attack and it will be no surprise to see MTN-Qhubeka try to put one of their climbers Daniel Teklehaimanot, Jacques van Rensburg or Serge Pauwels into the move.

 

However, the first part of the stage is pretty easy and this means that the GC teams won’t have a hard time controlling the attacks. With no big climbs to be used as ramps, the early break is unlikely to be too big or too strong as BMC and Sky are likely to combine forces in the controlling duties.

 

BMC will probably do the first part of the chasing but very early they will get some help from Sky. The British team was hugely disappointed after the team time trial and Chris Froome did nothing to hide that he had expected to be in the mix for the win on stage 3. He also made it clear that he now had to ride even more aggressively in the mountains and there is no doubt that he wants to make a mark right from the start of the difficult stages.

 

Froome usually targets the stage win in the first mountain stage of every race and tomorrow it will be no different. However, the final climb is not very hard and suits riders like Alejandro Valverde better than the Brit. Hence, he needs to make the race as hard as possible and we can expect Sky to go full gas on the Col da’Allos. As there is no valley between the two final climbs, they don’t need to keep much in reserve and we can expect Wout Poels, Nicolas Roche, Ian Boswell, Philip Deignan and an in-form Peter Kennaugh to do a lot of damage on the hardest climb of the stage. The second half is pretty tough and we expect the group to be very small by the time we get to the summit.

 

Pierre Rolland may try his usual long-distance attack but it will be hard to escape the Sky machine. Instead, we can expect it all to come down to a battle between the favourites on the final climb. As it is very short, the fight will start already on the lower slopes and we can expect Kennaugh to set Froome off in a big attack already on the third kilometre which is the hardest.

 

The final climb is clearly too easy to suit Froome well but it is still hard to imagine that anyone will be able to match the Brit. His 2015 season may not have been as good as he would have preferred but he is usually flying when he comes down from Mount Teide and heads into the Dauphiné. Last year he was in a class of his own in the first mountain stage where he rode on the front almost all the way up the final climb, shut down numerous attacks and finally made an attack that Contador described as the strongest he had ever seen.

 

If he is at a similar level, Froome will be unbeatable in this stage and he could ride away both with the stage win and the leader’s jersey if he gets clear on the lower slopes. The only small doubt comes from the fact that Froome has not been at his best since he crashed out of last year’s Tour de France. He was not at 100% in the Vuelta and his spring season has been a real disaster. He still hasn’t proved that he can get back to the level that saw him dominate the mountain stages in 2013 and the first part of 2014.

 

However, Froome claims to be very satisfied with his current condition and that indicates that he is really flying. He was really impressive in the team time trial where he seemed to be doing the work almost all the time and this is another indication that he is at a very high level. Tomorrow he can finally show his real condition and we expect him to stamp his authority on the race by taking a big solo victory.

 

His biggest rival will probably be Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard is a former two-time winner of this race but in recent years he has not been at his best in his preparation races. This year it may be different as he will be keen to send a signal to the Movistar management ahead of the Tour de France.

 

Valverde has been riding very attentively in the first stages, even trying his hand in the bunch sprint on stage 1, and he is clearly targeting this race. He will be favoured by the relatively short final climb which should suit him well. Valverde is usually very hard to drop in the final 2km of a climb and with his fast sprint, he could be the rider to beat Froome on this kind of ascent.

 

Andrew Talansky is the defending champion in this race and he is clearly very ambitious. Cannondale-Garmin have been riding much on the front to keep their captain safe and this clearly indicates that he wants to win this race again. In the last two years, Talansky has been flying in this race and it will be a big surprise if it is any different in 2015.

 

Talansky looked very strong in the team time trial where he had to slow down to wait for his teammates. Of course he won’t drop Froome but he could be the one to benefit from a tactical battle between Froome and Valverde. The Brit won’t drag the Spaniard all the way to the line and if those two riders start to look at each other, Talansky will be ready to strike.

 

The same goes for Romain Bardet who is reportedly stronger than he was in 2014. Last year he suffered in the first part of the race but in the second part he was very strong. In general, he has clearly stepped up his level in 2015 and he should be even stronger this time around. He has done nothing to hide that he is really targeting this race and as he lost a bit of time in the team time trial he may not be too heavily marked.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez has rarely been too strong in this race but this year his approach seems to be different. He has been riding very attentively near the front and has not had his usual laid-back attitude. Katusha have done nothing to hide that they are targeting the GC in this race and so Rodriguez will be one to watch. We don’t expect him to be at his best yet but on a relatively short climb, the explosive Spaniard will have a chance.

 

Wilco Kelderman was impressive in last year’s Giro and took his good condition into the Dauphiné where he finished fourth overall. Since then, illness has prevented him from reaching similar heights but now he has had a perfect build-up for the Tour de France. He is likely to have improved since last year and this will make him a danger man this summer. He looked very strong in today’s stage where he tested his condition after his crash in stage 2. Furthermore, he has a fast sprint which is no disadvantage on this kind of climb.

 

Last year Vincenzo Nibali was not at his best in this race and we don’t expect it to be different in 2015. He admits that he still hasn’t done too much intensity work which he will do in San Pellegrino later this month. Hence, he is probably not strong enough to shine on a climb that doesn’t really suit him. On the other hand, he is one of the best climbers in this race and so it is hard not to mention him as an outsider.

 

Rui Costa is always flying at this time of the year but this time he will try to shine on a different scene than usual. The harder climbs in the Dauphiné may suit him a bit less than the ones in the Tour de Suisse but he should still be able to do well. This year he has been riding very strongly and he should be favoured by the relatively short final climb which is not too steep. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint which is important in this stage.

 

The 2015 season has been a bad one for Mathias Frank who has been unable to reach his best condition but now he claims that the legs are finally there. The Swiss was reportedly very strong in the team time trial and he looked strong when he attacked in the finale of today’s stage. Last year he proved that he has the skills to be up there with the best on the climbs and as he is not one of the top favourites, he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

Tejay van Garderen looked strong in the time trial and he is very confident in his chances. The American has had a very good preparation for this race and should be in very good condition. However, the final climb is probably too explosive to suit him well and as he has already gained time on GC, he won’t be given an inch. He should be among the best but he probably won’t win the stage.

 

The Yates brothers are destined for big things and they will be keen to show themselves in this race as they build condition for the Tour de France. They have both finished in the top 10 in WorldTour races this year and there is no reason they can’t do the same in this race. Adam has been set back by injury but looked pretty strong in the recent Tour des Fjords while Simon claims to be in very good condition. With their explosiveness, this climb should suit them well.

 

We are curious to see how Daniel Martin will do in this stage. On paper it should suit him well as he has a fast sprint and likes this kind of relatively short final climb. However, he has been unable to train optimally due to his broken ribs sustained in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and so he is a bit uncertain about his condition.

 

Nibali may be the Astana leader but we wouldn’t be surprised if Michele Scarponi is their best rider. The Italian is not the rider he once was but he has been riding pretty well this year. He looked strong in the team time trial which is not a discipline he likes and he should be suited to this climb.

 

Finally, Robert Kiserlovski, Rafael Valls and Benat Intxausti deserve a mention. Kiserlovski has had a bad year but he claims to be in very good condition at the moment and is targeting a top 10 in this race. If he has the legs he had in the first part of the 2014 Giro, he will be one of the best. 2015 has been a breakthrough for Valls and there is no reason to suggest that he can’t carry his good condition into the summer. Finally, Intxausti is coming out of the Giro in good condition and as he looked strong in the team time trial, he should form a strong Movistar pair with Valverde.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Alejandro Valverde, Andrew Talansky

Outsiders: Romain Bardet, Joaquim Rodriguez, Wilco Kelderman, Vincenzo Nibali

Jokers: Rui Costa, Mathias Frank, Tejay van Garderen, Simon Yates, Adam Yates, Daniel Martin, Michele Scarponi, Robert Kiserlovski, Rafael Valls, Benat Intxausti