The course

The Criterium du Dauphiné is known as a mountainous race in the Alps but not every hilly stage takes place in the high mountains. The race usually also includes a number of stages that are too hard for the sprinters but too easy for the GC riders to make a difference. Stage 6 of a the 2015 edition is a prime example of such a stage as it barely includes any flat roads and has an uphill finish but the climbing is not severe enough to create major differences between the best riders.

 

The stage brings the riders over 183km from Saint-Bonnet-en-Champsaur to a summit finish on the Cote 2000 climb in Villard-de-Lans close to Grenoble. The first 60km are held in rolling terrain with numerous smaller climbs, including the category 3 ascents Rampe du Motty (2.3km, 8.3%) and Cote du Barrage de Sautet (2.2km, 4.4%). Despite the many ups and downs, there are no longer climbs until the riders get to the category 2 Col de la Croix-Haute (5.6km, 5.9%) which leads almost straight onto the lower slopes of the category 3 Col de Grimone (4.1km, 6.1%) whose summit is located at the 75km mark.

 

The riders now tackle the easiest part of the stage which is a long, gradual descent to the city of Die where the difficult finale starts. The category 1 Col du Rousset (13.8km, 5.4%) is the biggest obstacle of the day and has its summit located just 51km from the finish. It is a regular climb with constant gradients of around 5% and no steep parts. After a short descent, the terrain again gets lumpy with numerous smaller climbs of which none are categorized. The stage has a nasty sting in its tail as it ends at the top of the category 3 Cote 2000 (2.2km, 6.2%). The final kilometre has an average gradient of 6.9% and includes a very tough first section of around 300m with a gradient of more than 10% before it gets significantly easier for the final 700m where the gradient is around 4%.

 

Villard-de-Lans last hosted a stage of the race in 2003 when Iban Mayo beat David Millar and Lance Armstrong in the partly uphill prologue. One year later the Tour de France visited the stage on a memorable day when Lance Armstrong beat Ivan Basso, Jan Ullrich, Andreas Klöden and Levi Leipheimer in a 5-rider uphill sprint on the Cote 2000.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the heat was a big factor that definitely influenced the outcome of the first big mountain stage. Tomorrow it will be a completely different affair as it will be the first of three consecutive days in the rain. Right from the start of the stage, rain is expected to be falling and it will only intensify as the riders get closer to the finish. The temperature will only be around 16 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a tailwind and after short sections with crosswind and cross-headwind, they will have a cross-tailwind for most of the stage. In the finale, they will turn into a cross-headwind for the final kilometres and the riders will have to face those conditions on the final climb too.

 

The favourites

As expected, the Pra Loup climb gave the first big indication of the current strength of the Tour de France contenders. Romain Bardet combined a brave attitude with great legs to take the biggest win of his career and move himself firmly back into contention for the overall win. However, the big surprise was the fact that Chris Froome was again below his usual level and as Tejay van Garderen is better than ever, the Brit now faces an uphill battle if he wants to win the race overall. However, the main concern in the Sky camp will be the fact that his below-par performance comes on the back of an entire year during which he has been far from the level he showed in 2013 and the first half of 2014.

 

The race is definitely not over yet as Froome still has two tough summit finishes in the weekend to try to distance van Garderen. Especially Saturday’s queen stage has the potential to do a lot of damage and here the steeper and more irregular final climb may suit Froome better than it suits van Garderen. Furthermore, it still remains to be seen how Bardet will go up against the favourites in a direct battle and Andrew Talansky is also looking strong after defending himself well on a climb that didn’t really suit him.

 

Before the GC battle is resumed, the riders will have to get through tomorrow’s stage. With a total of six climbs, including one of the first category, and an uphill finish, it is definitely a very hard course. However, the final climb is short and not very steep so it is a stage more for puncheurs than for the climbers. The GC riders won’t be able to make a difference on this kind of climb and only the bonus seconds or bad luck in the wet conditions can potentially change the top end of the GC.

 

This means that it could be a very good day for a breakaway. The hilly terrain will be very difficult to control and as bigger time gaps have now opened up, BMC can allow a group to ride away with the stage win. In fact that may even be an advantage as it would take away the bonus seconds from van Garderen’s rivals.

 

This means that we can expect a brutally fast start to the stage with lots of attacks and it is one of those days when it will take a long time for the break to get formed. As there are no major climbs in the first part of the stage, it will be a manageable task for BMC to make sure that there is no dangerous rider in the break that finally takes off. The first categorized climb is pretty tough though and this could be used as a perfect launch pad for some good climbers to get clear.

 

The outcome of the stage will depend a lot on the composition of the break. The finale is perfectly suited to rides like Alejandro Valverde, Simon Gerrans, Julian Alaphilippe Tony Gallopin and Edvaldo Boasson Hagen but they also know that a breakaway has a good chance. Hence, they will probably all try to put a rider in the early break and if their teams are all represented in the group, there is a big chance that they will probably make it to the finish.

 

In any case, it will be interesting to see whether they will do anything to bring it back together. Two tough mountain stages are coming up and with the good rides of Intxausti, Yates and Meintjes, Movistar, Orica-GreenEDGE and MTN-Qhubeka may be keen to save energy for the queen stage. For Lotto Soudal and Etixx-QuickStep, the goal is to win a stage but they will probably do their utmost to have a rider in the break.

 

This means that it is probably 50-50 whether the break will make it. The wet conditions will increase their chances as the peloton won’t take too many risks on the many descents. Furthermore, the likes of Boasson Hagen and Gerrans are not pure climbers and Alphilippe is not in great condition. Hence, their teams can’t go too fast up the Col du Rousset. On the other hand, that climb is not very hard and as it is far from the finish, they should all be able to survive it on a day when the pace on that ascent won’t be too fast.

 

If it comes down to a sprint finish, Alejandro Valverde is the man to beat. The Spaniard is very fast in these uphill sprints and he will be keen to get an important confidence boost as he goes into the Tour de France. He was riding surprisingly poorly in today’s stage but this kind but tomorrow the terrain is significantly easier. Even though he is clearly not at 100%, Valverde should easily keep up with the best in this kind of finale.

 

Valverde is the best uphill sprinter in the world and he is very good at positioning himself. In a flat sprint, Simon Gerrans and Edvald Boasson Hagen are probably faster but in this kind of sprint, very few are capable of beating the Movistar leader. The main challenge for him will be to bring it back together for a sprint and he may prefer to save his team for the weekend stages. However, a combination of other teams could bring it all back together for the Spaniard and then he can be the one to profit.

 

In an uphill sprint, his biggest rival could be Daniel Martin. The Irishman is rediscovering his best legs after a disastrous start to the season. Due to the broken ribs he sustained in Liege, he hasn’t been able to train optimally and so he didn’t have to big expectations for this race. However, he looked very strong in today’s stage and even though he was not able to go with the best, he was not far off. Tomorrow’s terrain is significantly easier and he is very explosive in this kind of finish. He would have preferred the final climb to be steeper but he should be a contender.

 

Simon Gerrans is using this race to rebuild his condition for the Tour de France and so he should be close to his best. After his bad start to the season, he was looking strong in the Giro until he left the race to prepare for the Tour. In this race he has tested himself in a couple of sprints and tomorrow he probably has his best chance to win a stage. The finale suits him pretty well and he should benefit from the fact that the final 700m are a bit less steep. Compared to the likes of Valverde and Martin, he will suffer a bit on the steep section but if he can survive those 300m relatively fresh, he will be a contender. Furthermore, he could decide to join a break and if he is in the winning group, he will be the obvious favourite.

 

Tony Gallopin is mainly here to win a stage and he is clearly riding at a good level. Today he showed his good condition in terrain that is usually a bit too hard for him. Tomorrow’s stage is perfectly suited to an Ardennes specialist like him and he could take his chance both in a break and in the finale. As he is only 2.22 behind in the overall standings, he probably won’t get too much freedom and so he will probably have to wait for an uphill sprint. He is very strong in that kind of test and even though he is rarely the fastest, it will soon be time for him to take a win under such circumstances.

 

The stage is also tailor-made for Julian Alaphilippe but the Frenchman is clearly tired after a hard spring season. Today he was dropped relatively early and he is looking forward to a break. However, he was still riding strongly in the first few stages and his condition is clearly not completely gone. The easier terrain should suit him well and he is very good in an uphill sprint. Like Boasson Hagen and Gerrans, he can also join an early break and if he makes the right group, he will be an obvious favourite.

 

We are curious to see how Edvald Boasson Hagen will handle this stage. The Norwegian is a big guy but he is a very good climber who won a similar stage in this race a few years ago. After he crashed in Gent-Wevelgem, he is already back in good condition and he has been close to the win several times in this race. The Col du Rousset will be a tough challenge for him but as it never gets steep and comes far from the finish, he should be able to make it. The steep section on the final climb may be a bit too hard for him and it will be difficult for him to beat Valverde in this finale. A sprint win can’t be ruled out but his best chance may be to join an early breakaway from which he will be difficult to beat.

 

Another rider who could do well in an uphill sprint, is Alexis Vuillermoz. The Frenchman recently won the GP de Plumelec which has a similar finale and he was also in the top 10 in Fleche Wallonne. He finished 17th in today’s stage and is clearly in very good condition. As he is close on GC, he won’t be allowed to attack but he could test himself in the sprint. To win he would probably have needed a harder finale but he should be a contender.

 

Another great uphill sprinter is Julien Simon. The Cofidis rider was second behind Vuillermoz in Plumelec and is at a solid level at the moment. This year he has had the legs he had in 2015 but he seems to be getting better. He may not be strong enough to follow the best in the finale which could be a bit too hard for him but he could also take his chance in a breakaway.

 

Another good breakaway candidate is Rein Taaramae. The Estonian is riding very inconsistently but when he has one of his best days, he is very strong. Astana won’t be too fully focused on the GC and they will be keen to use their strong team to win a stage. Taaramae is probably their best candidate and even though he is not fast enough to win a sprint, he has the brute strength to ride away in the finale. His teammate Lieuwe Westra is another good pick for a breakaway.

 

If the stage turns out to be too hard for Gerrans, Orica-GreenEDGE may try to set up Simon Yates for the sprint. The Australian is having a breakthrough season and has mostly shown himself on the climbs. However, he is also very strong in a sprint but in a team like Orica-GreenEDGE he has not had many chances to prove himself in those conditions. His brother Adam is a very good breakaway pick as he is not in his best condition.

 

Tiesj Benoot is having a breakthrough first professional season and this stage should be a good one for him. The terrain may be a little bit too hard to suit him perfectly but he was climbing impressively in the Tour of Belgium. Furthermore, he is very fast in a sprint and this will make him a good candidate for a breakaway.

 

The same goes for Giampaolo Caruso, Gorka Izagirre and Jarlinson Pantano who all lost a bit of time in today’s stage. They are all good climbers and especially Pantano is strong in an uphill sprint. Dominik Nerz is another rider who lost surprisingly much time today and he will be keen to confirm his status as Bora captain for the Tour de France by doing a good ride tomorrow. His teammate Björn Thurau and Paul Voss are also in very good condition at the moment and Bora-Argon 18 will be keen to hut the break. Finally, Cyril Gautier and Jay McCarthy are both strong in this terrain and they both have the fast sprint that will allow them to finish it off.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde (sprint)

Other winner candidates: Dan Martin (sprint), Simon Gerrans (sprint, breakaway)

Outsiders: Tony Gallopin (sprint, breakaway), Julian Alaphilippe (sprint, breakaway), Edvald Boasson Hagen (sprint, breakaway)

Jokers: Alexis Vuillermoz (sprint), Julien Simon (sprint, breakaway), Rein Taaramae (breakaway), Lieuwe Westra (breakaway), Simon Yates (sprint), Adam Yates (breakaway), Tiesj Benoot (breakaway), Giampaolo Caruso (breakaway), Gorka Izagirre (breakaway), Jarlinson Pantano (breakaway, sprint), Dominik Nerz (breakaway), Björn Thurau (breakaway), Paul Voss (breakaway), Cyril Gautier (breakaway), Jay McCarthy (breakaway)