Chris Froome halved his deficit to Tejay van Garderen in today’s big queen stage and those two riders have clearly shown that they are the strongest riders in the Criterium du Dauphiné. With Froome being the strongest and van Garderen having the advantage, all is set for a hugely exciting battle in the final summit finish of the mountainous race.

 

The course

The Criterium du Dauphiné is never decided before the riders get to the very end of the race as the final stage is never ceremonial. In fact, it is always a short, intensive affair in some very hilly terrain. That’s no different in 2015 even though this year’s final leg is a bit easier than it has been in recent year. It may have a summit finish but there are no very long climbs and so the race is unlikely to be turned upside down in the way it did 12 months ago. For the Tour de France contenders, it will be another great chance to test a part of the Tour route as the Lacets de Montvernier climb will feature both in this stage and in the final part of stage 18 in July.

 

At 156.5km, it is another very short stage that brings the rider in a southerly direction from Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc to Modane-Valfrejus. Most of the stage takes place on the outskirts of the Alps, meaning that there are no big climbs. Instead, it is a lumpy day with several smaller climbs. After a mostly flat start, the riders get to the top of the category 2 Cote d’Hery-Sur-Ugine (2.7km, 6.1%) after 25.5km of racing before they descend to a longer flat section. Along the way they will tackle the two small climbs Cote d’Aiton (category 4, 1.4km, 6.7%) and the Cote de Saint-Georges-des-Hurtieres (category 3, 4.6km, 5.4%).

 

The climbing gets a bit tougher when the peloton gets to the category 1 Lacets de Montvernier (3.4km, 8.2%) which is a short and very regular climb with a constant gradient of 8-9%. The climbs is hugely spectacular and will feature again in stage 18 of the Tour de France. After a short descent, the road is uphill for the final 40km. The first part is just a gradual rise before the riders get to the category 3 Cote de Saint-André (3km, 7%) whose summit is located just 14.5km from the finish. Just a few kilometres later, they take on the final ascent to the finish in Modane Valfrejus. It is a category 1 climb with a length of 8.4km and an average gradient of 5.7%. The first three kilometres are easy at 3-5% but then the going gets tougher with four kilometres averaging between 6% and 9.6%. The seventh kilometre is the hardest at 9.6% before the terrain again gets significantly easier and the final 400m are even slightly descending.

 

The climb to Modane Valfrejus has not hosted a stage finish of a major bike race in recent years.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders escaped the rain in today’s stage but it seems that they won’t have the same kind of luck tomorrow. After a very rainy morning, things should get better for the start of the race and they may actually take the start in dry conditions. However, showers are forecasted for the entire afternoon. The maximum temperature in Modane at the bottom of the final climb will be just 10 degrees.

 

There will barely be any wind as just a light breeze will be blowing from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross-headwind before they turn into a crosswind. In the finale, they will get a tailwind until they hit the final climb where they will have a crosswind.

 

The favourites

Chris Froome and Tejay van Garderen confirmed the impression that they are the strongest riders in this race and they seem to be almost equally strong. Froome has slightly had the edge in the final two stages but van Garderen has proved how much he has matured. The American has gauged his efforts perfectly and has managed to limit his losses to the best climber in the world in very impressive fashion.

 

This sets the scene for a great final stage. The time gap between the two best climbers is just 18 seconds and even though the final climb in the final stage is not very hard, it will definitely be possible for Froome to make up that amount on time. Hence, the race will go down to the wire as it is often the case in this event and the organizers could not have wished for a better scenario for the final stage, with the two best riders being closely separated and the strongest being the one on the back foot.

 

Last year the final stage completely turned the race upside down but that won’t happen tomorrow. The course is significantly easier than it was 12 months ago and has no major climbs before the riders get to the final ascent. Hence, it will be a much more controlled affair and it should all come down to the final climb.

 

If he has found himself in the race lead – which he had probably expected – Froome would gladly have allowed a breakaway to take the stage win. However, the final climb is not very hard and he desperately needs the bonus seconds if he wants to win the race overall. He can’t allow a breakaway to take those precious seconds away and so there is no chance that Sky will let this race get out of control.

 

The first part of the stage is very easy and this should make it possible for the strong Brits to keep the situation in check. As this is the final chance for riders to earn selection for the Tour de France, we should have a fast start with lots of attacks but Sky will make sure that the early break is not too strong or too big. When the break has taken off, BMC will hit the front but as they would be happy to see the break stay away, Sky will come to the fore at an early point.

 

From there, the British team will remain in control for the final part of the stage and make sure that the early break never gets much of an advantage. They will probably go pretty hard on the climbs to make the race as tough as possible and in general they won’t make it an easy day in the saddle. They won’t leave anything to chance and as there will be a huge fight for position for the final climb, the break will probably be brought back as soon when the peloton hit the lower slopes. Here Sky will use their usual tactic to make the race as tough as possible and it will be a gradual elimination. They will make it possible for anyone to attack and everybody can just wait for Froome’s big move.

 

The climb is not very hard but the seventh kilometre is steep enough to make a difference. Froome has to make the most out of this section as the final 1.4km are almost flat. This is where we will see a big battle between the two best riders and where the Criterium du Dauphiné will be decided.

 

Today Froome again confirmed that he is the strongest rider in the race and we expect him to confirm that position tomorrow. On paper he is the best climber in the world and even though he is clearly not at his 2013 level, he is the best rider in this race. He would evidently have preferred a harder climb but on a 9.6% section he should be able to make a difference. If he can get a gap he will be very strong in the flat final section too as he is a great rouleur.

 

Froome doesn’t like rainy conditions but he has done well in the bad weather earlier in this race. Furthermore, he will benefit from the fact that van Garderen won’t be focused on the stage win. The American won’t go into the red zone to try to follow Froome and will just try to get to the summit as fast as possible. This makes it even more likely that Froome will win the stage. Usually, he is also the fastest sprinter of the pair and so he is the big favourite to win the stage. Whether that is enough to take the overall win is a lot more questionable as he needs to gain 14 seconds on van Garderen which won’t be easy on this climb.

 

However, it won’t be impossible for van Garderen to beat him. The American has clearly matured a lot. In the past he always went into the red zone way too early on the climbs and often blew up spectacularly. Now he is a master in gauging his effort. He won’t go too hard in an attempt to follow Froome. On the other hand, the Brit has to go to his maximum to maximize his gains and this could allow van Garderen to get back as he did in stage 5. Froome may be slightly faster in a sprint but van Garderen definitely has a chance in a two-rider battle.

 

It is hard to imagine that the stage winner won’t be one of those two riders but if Froome is unable to drop van Garderen, tactics may come into play. As those two riders will be focused on each other, it could open the door for other riders to sneak away and take the stage win. In that case, Benat Intxausti finds himself in the best position as he is clearly the best of the rest. That was the case in stages 5, 6 and 6 and it will probably be so again tomorrow. The main question is whether he can maintain his Giro condition for another day but until now he has not been slowing down. Furthermore, he is pretty fast in a sprint which would make him a candidate if it comes to a three-rider battle.

 

Romain Bardet did well to limit his losses in today’s stage but he seems to be slightly set back by the injuries he suffered yesterday. However, the Frenchman is clearly riding well and often the day after a crash is the worst. If he can recover well, he should be able to do better tomorrow and then he may be the rider who can use his aggressive nature and the tactical battle to win the stage.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez is gradually riding himself into good form and he is actually better than usual at this point of the season. This sets him up for a good Tour de France and he would love to boost his confidence by taking a stage win tomorrow. At the moment, he is not able to follow the best but this easier climb should be more manageable for a punchy rider like him. Furthermore, he is constantly improving and if he can make it back to the leaders, there is a big chance that he will be the fastest in a sprint.

 

Today Daniel Martin had extremely bad luck as he punctured at the bottom of the final climb at a point when he was looking very strong. However, the Irishman is clearly on the rise and tomorrow’s final climb should suit him well. If he can make it back to the leaders, he is faster than Rodriguez in a flat sprint and so he has a good chance to finally break his string of bad luck.

 

The fastest sprinter is obviously Alejandro Valverde and like Martin and Rodriguez he is obviously getting better and better. Tomorrow he only has to survive one very steep kilometre and he has the ability dig very deep for a short amount of time. No one is going to beat the Spaniard in a sprint finish and as he will even have Intxausti at his side to control the flat finale, Valverde may come out on top.

 

Andrew Talansky is clearly not as strong as he was last year but the American usually recovers very well. He is likely to get better and better and he is no longer a threat to the overall contenders. The final climb doesn’t suit him very well but he shouldn’t be far off the pace of the best riders. If he can exploit the tactical battle, he may continue his love affair with the Dauphiné-

 

Finally, Simon Yates deserves a mention. The Brit showed impressive maturity in today’s stage where he was dropped very early but managed to defend his position in the top of the overall standings. He seems to be a bit fatigued but today’s stage was always going to be the big test for him. Tomorrow’s finale should suit his explosive nature a bit better and if he can make it back to the leaders, he may profit from his fast sprint.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Tejay van Garderen, Benat Intxausti

Outsiders: Romain Bardet, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin, Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Andrew Talansky, Simon Yates