The Eneco Tour offers eveything that is great about the spring classics. One of those elements is the wind which can potentially wreak havoc on the first day of the seven-day race. However, the weather forecast predicts a calm day and so everything is set for a bunch sprint on the opening day of the race.

 

The course

Since the organizers decided to abandon the idea of an opening prologue in 2012, the Eneco Tour has usually started with a flat stage for the sprinters. 2015 will be no exception and for the second year in a row it will be the Netherlands that sends off the peloton. Like last year it will again be the windy area near the North Sea that is the scene of the opening ride and there is little doubt that the organizers hope for some tough conditions for the opener.

 

The riders will start their race in Bolsward in the completely flat part of the country where they will do a 183.5km circuit race around the city. It can be divided into three parts. First the riders will tackle a 45.7km circuit on the northern outskirts of the main city. Like the rest of the stage, it is completely flat and doesn’t include too many technical challenges but it ends with a short ride along the coast before the riders turn inland to head back to the start-finish area. Then the riders will do a lap of a much longer 97.4km circuit on the southern outskirts and it is pretty similar to the opening challenge both when it comes to technical challenges and terrain. There will be Primus sprints at the 57.3km and 139.1km where there will be points on offer for the sprints classification. Again the final part takes places close to the coast which should make things pretty nervous if the conditions are right.

 

The riders will cross the finish line again after 143.1km of racing and will now end the stage by doing two laps of a 20.2km circuit around Bolsward. It doesn’t offer any real technical challenges and as it is also completely flat, only the wind and crashes can do some damage. The golden kilometre starts with 23.2km to go when the riders approach the end of the first lap. The finale is very easy as the riders will take the final left-hand turn with 4.6km to go and then they will follow a long, straight, flat road all the way to the finish.

 

Bolsward has not hosted the finish of a major bike race for more than a decade. Last year it was Andrea Guardini who won the opening sprint stage while Mark Renshaw surprised the sprinters by attacking in a late turn to take the first yellow jersey two years ago.

 

 

 

The weather

The organizers have definitely designed this stage with echelons on their minds. Held close to the North Sea and with lots of changes of direction, the stage has all the potential to turn into a great drama if the conditions are right. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem that we will get much action as the Netherlands are currently enjoying summer conditions.

 

Monday is forecasted to be a relatively cloudy day with a maximum temperature of 23 degrees. There is only a 10% risk of rain so the roads are likely to be dry. Most importantly, there will only be a very light wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will have all kind of wind directions on the first two circuits. During their rides along the coast, they will have a headwind on the first circuit and a tailwind on the second circuit. On the finishing circuit, there will be a cross-tailwind in the first half and a cross-headwind in the second half that includes the long finishing straight.

 

The favourites

The main idea of the Eneco Tour is to have a stage race that includes everything that the spring classics have to offer. One of those elements is wind and so the organizers have often visited the Zeeland province, hoping for some crosswinds action. The region is known for its tough conditions which have created some exciting racing, most recently in stage 2 of the Tour de France. However, it is rarely very windy at this time of the year and so it has never really created the expected fireworks in the Eneco Tour.

 

With the weather forecast predicting nice conditions, it seems that the riders will get a relatively gentle introduction to their seven days of classics racing. Some of the GC riders who are part of strong teams will definitely regret this fact as it offers them one less opportunity to create a difference. However, the sprint teams will be pleased with the scenario as it makes it almost guaranteed that the race will be decided in a bunch sprint.

 

That will make it a day of survival for the GC riders who just have to avoid the crashes and the splits that can occur in the finale. Often the finishing circuits in the race have been very technical and many riders have lost time in the sprint stages. However, this circuit is uncomplicated and we are unlikely to see any differences between the overall contenders. Nonetheless, the Dutch roads are known for their many traffic islands and it would be a bit of a surprise if every rider gets through the stage without having touched the ground at some point of the stage.

 

While the GC riders will stay near the front, the sprint teams will be eager to go for the first leader’s jersey in the race. With three flat stages in the first half of the race, they can potentially defend the lead until Thursday and this will be a big goal for them. With so many sprint stages, it doesn’t really make sense to go into the race without a sprinter on the roster and so the field is loaded with fast finishers. Hence, it will be very hard for anyone to prevent a bunch sprint.

 

Hence, most riders will be keen to save their energy for later which means that the break will probably be established straight from the gun. The main incentive for an attack is the sprints jersey which has often been a goal for the wildcard teams of Wanty-Groupe Gobert and Topsport Vlaanderen. We expect those two teams to be represented in the early work and they are likely to be joined by riders from Roompot, and WorldTour teams like Ag2r and Cannondale-Garmin who have no major sprinters in the race.

 

Lotto Soudal have the overwhelming favourite for the stage so they will be given the task of keeping the situation under control. Stig Broeckx will probably do most of the early work and it will be interesting to see if he will be given any help at all. Most teams will be keen to tire out Greipel’s lead-out train but it is still hard to imagine that the situation will get dangerous. Trek, Sky, FDJ, Astana, LottoNL-Jumbo and Lampre-Merida are very focused on the sprints and they will be ready to lend a hand if the gap becomes too big.

 

Everything is set for a rather predictable sprint stage where the pace will gradually ramp up in the finale. This is when the crashes are likely to happen but otherwise the lack of technical challenges means that it should be a relatively straightforward sprint. However, it will be interesting to see whether the break had been brought back before we get to the golden kilometre. If it has, we should see some action from the GC riders who will be keen to sprint for some points and it would be no surprise to see BMC grab an opportunity to gain a few early seconds for Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet.

 

The finishing straight is very long which means that it is a sprint for the true power sprinters. Positioning is always important on the narrow Dutch roads but if there’s an opening, the fastest rider will be able to make a difference. However, the cross-headwind means that it will be important to time things right.

 

In the Tour de France, André Greipel proved that he is currently faster than Mark Cavedish and Marcel Kittel is probably the only rider who can potentially challenge the German when it comes to pure speed. Neither Cavendish nor Kittel are present in this race and this means that he is the fastest rider here.

 

Furthermore, he can rely on an abundance of lead-out rider. The usual train of Sieberg-Roelandts-Henderson-Greipel is back together and they can even rely on Jens Debusschere too who played Roelandts role in the Tour de France. In the past, this formation has proved that they are the best in the world and it is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to challenge them in the finale.

 

Greipel hasn’t raced since the Tour and as always the Eneco Tour is his first race after the French event. He was set to ride in London but missed that event due to a small knee injury. That may have hampered him a bit but he is unlikely not to be strong in this race. He has won lots of stages in the past and rarely comes away empty-handed. With the best lead-out train at his side, he will be the man to beat.

 

When it comes to pure speed, the only rider that can potentially challenge Greipel is probably Andrea Guardini. The Italian didn’t have much success in the Tour de Pologne where he crashed in stage 2 and never found room to sprint in stages 1 and 3. However, nothing suggests that he is not riding well after having recently finished a training camp. Last year he was flying at this time of the year and won the opening stage in this race and this year he has improved his level massively.

 

Unfortunately, Astana mainly have a team of GC riders and so Guardini only has Alexey Lutsenko and Ruslan Tleubayev for the lead-out. In the past, he has been positioning himself very poorly and even though he has improved that aspect, it will still be hard to match the best trains in this race. Nonetheless, he is the only rider who can probably beat Greipel if the German gets the perfect lead-out.

 

When it comes to lead-out train, Trek look very strong. Eugenio Alafaci, Marco Coledan, Jasper Stuyven and the van Poppel brothers are all very fast riders who should be able to set Giacomo Nizzolo up in the best possible way. The Italian is desperately looking for that elusive victory after so many near-misses, most recently in the Tour de Pologne where he finished second and third.

 

He left that race due to his asthma and this could again be a setback in this race. However, this stage is relatively easy and as it won’t be overly hot in tomorrow’s stage, he should be able to handle the challenges. He is not as fast as Greipel but he is perfect at positioning himself and with a great lead-out, it could finally be the time for him to break the drought.

 

For once, Sky go into a WorldTour stage race with no big favourite for the overall so their main goal will be to win a stage with Elia Viviani. The Italian can count on a very strong team to support him as he will have Bernhard Eisel, Andrew Fenn and Chris Sutton at his disposal. The Sky lead-out worked very well in the beginning of the year but since then they haven’t raced much together. However, they have proved that they know how to set their sprinter up well. That will be important as Viviani is usually not good at positioning himself. However, he is one of the fastest riders and if his team can positioning him, he has the speed to win.

 

It’s been a frustrating season for Arnaud Demare who finally broke a long drought in the Tour of Belgium where he won two stages. He rode strongly in the Tour de France where he did some good sprints and reached the finish in a much better state than he did 12 months ago. He is one of the fastest riders in this field but he needs a bit of luck to win the stage. He only has Mickael Delage for the lead-out and that’s too little in the fight against the best teams. Furthermore, he is rarely very good at positioning himself so there is a big risk that he will not even be in the top 10.

 

Sacha Modolo is another sprint who arrives straight from Poland. The Italian was clearly not in his best condition in the Tour de Pologne where he mainly worked for teammate Niccolo Bonifazio. Bonifazio is not in this race and so Modolo will probably be back in the lead role. In this race he can count on the formidable train of Roberto Ferrari and Maximilano Richeze who dominated the Giro finales. Modolo is not fast enough to beat the best in this kind of sprint but if the train can do what they did in Italy, it won't be impossible to win.

 

Moreno Hofland claims to be in good condition and he recently finished a solid 9th in the RideLondon classic where he won the bunch sprint. The Dutchman is back in action after a good Giro where he was close to a first grand tour stage win. However, he probably needs a harder finale to really shine as he usually doesn’t have the speed to match the best. He has a solid lead-out train though and Robert Wagner has proved to be a capable final rider.

 

Last year Alexander Porsev was flying in this race but he had bad luck to break his collarbone in one of the sprint stages. Now he is hoping for a better outcome and he has proved that he has the speed to challenge the best. In the past, he has often lost out due to poor positioning but in this race he can count on Jacopo Guarnieri who has turned out to be one of the best lead-out men in the world. With Rudiger Seliger and Viacheslav Kuznetsov also at his side, he may be able to start his sprint from a better position than usual.

 

Tom Boonen loves this kind of power sprint. In the Tour of Belgium, he proved that he still has the speed to win bunch sprints and in this race he has a pretty strong team to set him up. However, Fabio Sbaaini, Nikolas Maes and Yves Lampaert don’t have the power of the best trains and this will make it hard for Boonen to win as he will need a perfect lead-out to win against the fastest riders.

 

Jonas Van Genechten finally took a long overdue first win fir IAM in the Tour de Wallonie and he goes into this race with lots of confidence. He has proved that he has the speed to match the best but he has often come up short when it comes to positioning. This will again be his problem in this race where he can only really rely on David Tanner and Aleksejs Saramotins for the lead-outs.

 

For once, Giant-Alpecin won’t be a major force in the sprints as they don’t have their star sprinters in this race. This will give Nikias Arndt a chance to ride for himself but it won’t be easy in this field. Furthermore, most of the usual lead-out train is absent so it will be left to Zico Waeytens, Albert Timmer and Roy Curvers to set him up. This will make it difficult for the German.

 

A crash and a cold took Juan Jose Lobato out of the Tour de Pologne which was a big disappointment for him. Now he is back in action but this stage is not really made for him. There is no doubt that he is one of the fastest riders but he is very poor at positioning himself. Furthermore, he doesn’t have a strong team to support him. In this race, he has Jose Joaquim Rojas and Enrique Sanz at his side which should make things slightly better but there is a big chance that he will not even finish in the top 10.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have a very powerful lead-out and two potential sprinters in Magnus Cort and Leigh Howard. None of them are fast enough to win this stage. However, they could benefit from their good lead-out to sprint into the top 5.

 

Finally, Edward Theuns deserves a mention. The Belgian is not a pure sprinter but he has proved that he is very good at positioning himself. He rarely missed the top 10 and was even on the podium in Scheldeprijs which is a race for the real power sprinters. He is unlikely to win the stage but if he can continue his trend of good positioning he will be up there.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Andrea Guardini, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Elia Viviani, Arnaud Demare, Sacha Modolo, Moreno Hofland

Jokers: Alexander Porsev, Tom Boonen, Jonas Van Genechten, Nikias Arndt, Juan Jose Lobato, Magnus Cort, Leigh Howard, Edward Theuns, Roy Jans, Andre Looij, Dylan Groenewegen, Jempy Drucker