One week without training seems to have cost André Greipel the edge that saw him dominate the Tour de France sprints but the German still has two chances left to make amends for today’s disappointment. With another day on flat Dutch roads and no wind on the menu, the sprinters are again expected to rule in Breda tomorrow afternoon.

 

The course

The sprinters that missed out on the opening day, will get an immediate chance to take their revenge as the race continues with another completely flat stage in the Netherlands. Overnight the riders have done a long travel to the southern part of the country and are a bit farther away from the coast but they are still in a part of the country that can be pretty windy.

 

At 180.7km, the second stage is another circuit race and this time it is the bigger city of Breda that plays host to both the start and the finish. The design of the stage is pretty similar to the opening test as it can again be split into three parts. First the riders will do a lap of a flat, non-technical 25.7km circuit on the southern outskirts of the city before they get back to the start-finish area. Then they will take on the main circuit which is 95.6km long and covers the area on the western outskirts of the city. Again the terrain is flat and it will be the many traffic islands that will offer the technical challenges. The first Primus sprint comes at the 72.6km mark and later the riders will do a few kilometres on Belgian soil before they return to the Netherlands for the final part of the stage.

 

The riders will cross the finish line after 121.3km of racing and then the final part of the stage consists of two laps of a 29.7km finishing circuit. Apart from the final part which takes place in the city, it is not very technical and it is completely flat. The second Primus sprint comes near the end of the first lap with 35.5km to go while the golden kilometre starts with 21.5km to go when the riders have covered the first part of the second lap. Again the organizers have spared the riders from the usual technical finale as the riders will take the final left-hand turn with 2.1km to go and from there the road only bends slightly to the left.

 

Breda hosted a stage for the first time in 2014 when Tom Dumoulin took the time trial victory in the Dutch city. One year earlier it played host to the first stage of the Ster ZLM Toer where Theo Bos powered to one of the biggest wins of his career by beating the sprinting titans of Marcel Kittel, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish.

 

 

 

The weather

The lack of wind made today’s stage relatively stress-free until the speed ramped up in the finale. Tomorrow it will be more of the same as it will be another nice summer day in the Netherlands. After a relatively cloudy morning, the sun will come out in the afternoon when the temperature will reach a maximum of 25 degrees. There is no risk of rain.

 

It will be slightly windier than it was for the opening stage but it will still only be a light breeze from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will have all kind of wind direction on the first two circuits. On the finishing circuit, it will mainly be a crosswind but with 6km to go, the riders will turns into a headwind. After they have taken the final turn with 2.1km, it will still be a headwind that the will gradually turn into a cross-headwind as the road bends to the left.

 

The favourites

The organizers were left frustrated by the lack of wind which made today’s stage a relatively stress-free affair. With lots of changes of direction, the first two stages have clearly been designed with some crosswinds action on the mind but as usual this time of the year is rarely too windy. Hence, we can expect three straightforward sprint stages in the early part of the race.

 

However, that doesn’t make the racing less exciting. As usual, the Eneco Tour has attracted one of the best sprint line-ups of the year and this sets the scene for some of the best bunch sprints of the year. However, the Eneco Tour sprints are always very confusing and pretty hand to handle. The Dutch roads are loaded with traffic islands and are relatively narrow. At the same time, most teams have gathered their best lead-outs for the race and today’s hugely confusing sprint made it clear how difficult it is to make things right in these finales.

 

Elia Viviani was the one to handle the situation best. Knowing that Sky were unable to match the best lead-outs, he used his teammates to stay out on trouble until Andrew Fenn positioned him on André Greipel’s wheel. That briefly seemed to be a bad decision as the German was pretty far back at the start of the sprint but he had luck that Adam Blythe did a splendid lead-out for Magnus Cort who had Greipel and Viviani in tow. However, it forced Greipel to start the headwind sprint relatively early and that made it easy for Viviani to come around.

 

Tomorrow there will be a chance for Greipel to make amends in stage 2 which should again be an affair for the fast finishers. With no wind on the menu, it should be another relatively stress-free ride that will be controlled by the sprint teams. Today there was a big alliance between the sprint teams as Lotto Soudal, Sky, Trek and LottoNL-Jumbo all contributed to the pace-setting and only the latter team was not close to the win. Hence, the former three will all be ready to work for another sprint finish and this will make it virtually impossible to create a surprise.

 

Hence, we can expect the break to be established straight from the gun and it would be no surprise to see Nathan Haas and Laurens De Vreese in the move again. The pair have clearly set their sights on the sprints jersey and so they need to be part of the action again. Later in the week it will be much more difficult to get into the breaks so they need to make the most of these relatively easy starts.

 

Today the break got a relatively big advantage and tomorrow it will probably be similar. Sky will have to do the early work with Nathan Earle but we expect Stig Broecks and Eugenio Alafaci to quickly lend them a hand as Lotto Soudal and Trek both want a sprint finish too. LottoNL-Jumbo may also work again as they are riding on home soil but after today’s disappointment it is probably wiser to save the firepower for the finale.

 

This means that it will be a straightforward stage where the break will be brought back on the finishing circuit. The main question is whether they will be able to stay clear until they get to the golden kilometre with 21.5km to go. If that’s the case, they can sprint themselves to a top spot in the GC which is important for the car position on these narrow roads. Otherwise the GC riders will take their chance and even though they will do nothing to bring the break back in time for the sprints, they will definitely go for it if the opportunity is there. Fast riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alpahilippe, Philippe Gilbert and Fabio Felline can benefit from such a position.

 

Furthermore, it will be important for the GC riders to stay safe. The Eneco Tour is famously known for its many crashes and today we again had lots of riders going down. Most notably GC rider Jens Keukeleire hit the deck. There will be lots of stress in the finale. Luckily the finishing circuit is not technical so we are unlikely to see any gaps unless the peloton splits due to crashes.

 

In the end, it will all come down to a bunch sprint which is pretty similar to the one we had today. Again it is a very long finishing straight with a cross-headwind which means that timing is very important. Furthermore, the lack of technical challenges means that it is again a sprint for the real power sprinters who will benefit from the long distance from the final turn to the finish line.

 

Today André Greipel made several mistakes in the sprint. He lost the wheel of his lead-out train twice and he actually seemed to be out on the running for the win when they passed the flamme rouge. He had luck that Blythe did a great lead-out for Cort and this allowed him to get back in contention. Later he made another mistake by starting his sprint too early which was costly due to the headwind.

 

The stage clearly underlined that Greipel is no longer in his Tour de France condition. A knee injury forced him off the bike for a week and he clearly doesn’t have the speed that he had in the Tour. Furthermore, the fact that he lost his teammates twice is an indication that he is not at 100%.

 

However, Lotto Soudal proved that they have – by far – the best lead-out in the race. When Marcel Sieberg made his surge just before the flamme rouge, everything was on track for a splendid performance but things got confused when Greipel lost contact twice. Hence, the sprint became very confusing but Greipel definitely can’t complain about the level of support.

 

It is no surprise that Lotto Soudal were at another level. Sieberg- Roelandts-Henderson-Greipel have been the best in the world for a few years and in this race they even have Debusschere too. Tomorrow they should again be able to dominate the finale and if he can keep up with his teammates, Greipel has every chance to win the stage. He is clearly not as fast as he was in the Tour but the level of team support can make the difference. Hence, Greipel is again our favourite to win the stage.

 

Today Elia Viviani got a great confidence boost by taking the win. Despite having a great train, he knew that they were unable to match Lotto Soudal. Hence, he used his teammates earlier and then managed to get onto Greipel’s wheel in the finale. Tomorrow he will probably have a similar approach.

 

It won’t be easy though. Everybody wants to be on Greipel’s wheel and in fact it was a bit of a surprise that Viviani won the battle as he is usually not very good at positioning himself. However, he can really rely on some strong lead-out riders in this race to help him get into position and he seems to be in splendid condition. He always seems to tire later in stage races but at the start of an event he is always one of the fastest. At the moment, he clearly has the speed to beat Greipel and it would be no surprise if he makes it two in a row.

 

We are curious to see how Trek handle tomorrow’s stage. Today the plan was to do the sprint for Giacomo Nizzolo who is usually the fastest in these finales. However, he and Danny van Poppel lost each other in the finale and so the Dutchman took his own chance. That nearly paid off for him as he was just a few metres from taking the biggest win of his career.

 

Van Poppel is now well-placed overall and the team may be keen to go for the leader’s jersey. On the other hand, Nizzolo is still the fastest so it won’t be easy to decide whom they are going to protect. However, their best chance to win the stage is still the Italian so we will put our money on him.

 

Today the Trek lead-out was disorganized but on paper they have an excellent amount of firepower. Furthermore, Nizzolo is one of the best at positioning himself and it will be no surprise if he wins the battle for Greipel’s wheel in the finale. Despite suffering from asthma, he showed great condition in the Tour de Pologne and with Greipel showing signs of weakness, he will be ready to strike.

 

If the team decides to ride for the youngster, Danny van Poppel could potentially take the win. The young Dutchman is in tremendous condition as he proved when he dropped the likes of Philippe Gilbert and Matti Breschel on the Mur de Thuin to win the final stage of the Tour de Wallonie. Today he again underlined his form by doing a very good sprint. He is not as good as Nizzolo in the positioning but he has a formidable team to support it and so he has a solid chance to take both the stage win and the leader’s jersey.

 

Today Andrea Guardini did a fast sprint but it was evident that he paid the price for a lack of team support. He only has Alexey Lutsenko and Ruslan Tleubayev to lead him out and he was fighting on his own in the finale. That makes it very hard to win in these finales that are dominated by very strong teams but it doesn’t change the fact that Guardini is one of the select few with the speed to beat Greipel.

 

We were hugely disappointed with Lampre-Merida’s performance in today’s stage. The excellent train of Ferrari-Richeze-Modolo was nowhere to be seen and it was a lone Ferrari who fought for position in the finale. The Italian had been given the chance to do the sprint but he didn't receive much support However, that doesn’t change the fact that the trio proved to be unbeatable in the Giro d’Italia and they are the only ones who have the speed to challenge Lotto Soudal in the finales. It remains to be seen who will be given the chance tomorrow but the one who gets the nod can rely on one of the best lead-outs if they can time things better.

 

Jonas Van Genechten recently won a stage in the Tour de Wallonie and today he again proved that he is in very good condition. More importantly, his IAM team did very well in the finale and made sure that he was always in a good position. He doesn’t have a full team to support him but the likes of Heinrich Haussler, Aleksejs Saramotins and David Tanner did a good job to keep him up there. Last year he took a WorldTour win in Poland and he has the speed to do so again in this race.

 

As expected, Arnaud Demare paid the price for a lack of team support and he was never really in contention for the sprint. He only has Mickael Delage for the lead-out and that’s not enough against these very strong teams. Furthermore, he is not very good at positioning himself so he needs a lot of luck to win this stage. Nonetheless, he is one of the few with the speed to win this kind of stage.

 

There is no doubt that André Greipel is the main sprinter at Lotto Soudal but we won’t be overly surprised if his team decide to give Jens Debusschere a chance. Greipel is not in his best condition and he is never afraid of working for his teammates. That could give Debusschere an opportunity to ride at the back of the best train in the race and if that’s the case, he could take the second WorldTour win of his career.

 

Today Moreno Hofland came up short which was no big surprise. The Dutchman has never been a rider for these very fast finales and as tomorrow will be more of the same, it will be hard for him. On the other hand, he claims to be in very good condition and today his team did a splendid job to keep him near the front. He needs luck to win the stage but it won’t be impossible.

 

Jempy Drucker is more of a classics rider than a real sprinter but today he still managed to come away with third. As he recently won the RideLondon classic, he is obviously in great condition and it could open the door for him to take a surprise win. BMC are mainly here to ride for GC but Manuel Quinziato did a great job to support Drucker in the finale and he didn’t miss much speed to take the win.

 

Giant-Alpecin don’t have their best lead-out in this race which was evident in today’s finale. Nikias Arndt was on his own in the final kilometres and so was never really in contention. Furthermore, he usually doesn’t have the speed to match the fastest riders. On the other hand, the Giant lead-out has lots of experience and if they can deliver the German in a good position, he is able to do well.

 

We were pretty surprised that Katusha decided to do the sprint for Viacheslav Kuznetsov as Alexander Porsev is usually a lot faster. There is no chance that the former will win this kind of pure sprint and so it indicates that Porsev is not in his best condition. However, Katusha have several fast riders and if they decide to go for Rudiger Selig or Porsev and manage to position their sprinter well, a good result is definitely possible.

 

Blythe did a great lead-out for Magnus Cort in today’s stage but the Dane clearly didn’t have the speed to match the best. There is no chance that he will win tomorrow’s stage but as he has such a strong team to support him, it won’t be impossible to finish on the podium.

 

Finally, Tom Boonen deserves a mention. Etixx-QuickStep had positioned the Belgian perfectly on the front but he simply drifted backwards when he launched his sprint. It is evident that he is no longer as fast as he once was and the time when he can win WorldTour sprints are probably over. However, he has a strong team at his side and if they can time things slightly better, he should be up there.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Danny van Poppel, Andrea Guardini, Sacha Modolo, Jonas Van Genechten, Arnaud Demare

Jokers: Jens Debusschere, Roberto Ferrari, Maximilano Richeze, Moreno Hofland, Nikias Arndt, Alexander Porsev, Rudiger Selig, Magnus Cort, Tom Boonen, Edward Theuns, Dylan Groenewegen