After yesterday’s disappointment, Lotto Soudal proved that they are in a class of their own when it comes to lead-outs in the Eneco Tour and they delivered André Greipel to what looked like an easy win. However, the German missed out on the race lead but he still has one chance to take the white jersey and win a stage before the GC battle heats up in the final part of the race.

 

The course

The first three days will be all about survival for the GC riders who have to stay attentive due to the risk of splits but will wait for the second half to show their cards. Meanwhile, the fast riders have to make the most of the first three stages which are their only chances to go for glory in the Dutch-Belgian race.

 

After two days in the Netherlands, the race is in Belgium for the third stage which brings the riders to the traditional finish in Ardooie which has become a fixture in the WorldTour race. For the first time in this year’s edition, the stage is not a circuit race as it covers 171.9km from Beveren to the finishing city in the southwestern part of the country. Again it can be split into three parts, with the big difference that the middle part is not a circuit on the third day.

 

As it is often the case in the Eneco Tour, the riders will first do a lap of a circuit around the starting city. The opening circuit is 17.1km long and brings the riders through the flat terrain on the southwestern outskirts of Beveren. The first Primus sprint comes near the end of the circuit after 16.6km of racing.

 

The second part of the stage consists of a long southwesterly journey from Beveren to Ardooie and again the terrain is completely flat. There will be no sprints along the way. With 42.7km to go, the riders will reach the finishing circuit and then they will do almost a full lap before they get to the finish for the first time. Before they get there, they will do the final Primus sprint when 33.8km remain.

 

Moments later, the riders will cross the finish line to start the first of two laps of the 15.4km circuit. It is the same circuit that was used for the fourth stage of last year’s race and the opening stage of the 2013 edition of the race. It is completely flat and has a pretty technical final part with lots of traffic islands. With 1.4km to go, the riders do three sharp turns in quick succession before they hit the 1.1km finishing straight. The golden kilometre starts with 24.9km to go at the midpoint of the first lap.

 

Ardooie has hosted a stage finish every year since 2008. Tom Boonen was the first rider to win a bunch sprint while Tyler Farrar took the win one year later. In 2010, André Greipel was the fastest rider and he repeated the feat in 2011. In 2012, the city hosted the time trial which was won by Svein Tuft while Belkin used the late turns to open a gap behind their lead-out man Mark Renshaw in 2013, with the Australian holding off the sprinters all the way to the line. Last year Nacer Bouhanni won a bunch sprint but the stage is mostly remembered for the dramatic finale that saw defending champion Zdenek Stybar crash out of the race on the finishing straight.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have had beautiful summer weather for the first two stages on Dutch soil but they won’t have the same luck as they head to Belgium for the third stage. Today was a cloudy day in Ardooie and tomorrow there is a 40% risk that it will be raining in the morning. It is down to 25% by the time the riders will ride out for the neutral ride and they should definitely have dry conditions for the final part where there even is a small chance that the sun will come out.

 

It will be a bit windier too as there will be moderate wind from an easterly direction. This means that the riders will have a tailwind during their long ride from Beveren to Ardooie and so it will probably be a very fast stage. On the finishing circuit, it will mostly be a head- or a tailwind. There will be a tailwind until the riders turn into a headwind with 3.8km to go. Then the final turns just before the flamme rouge leads into a crosswind that will be blowing from the right on the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Going into the race, it was always evident that Lotto Soudal had by far the strongest lead-out train in the race. Yesterday they had actually timed things perfectly but André Greipel messed it up when he lost his teammates in the finale. Hence, he was forced to handle a very confusing sprint on his own and ended up starting the headwind sprint too early. This allowed Elia Viviani, Danny van Poppel and Jempy Drucker to easily pass him before he sat up.

 

Today Lotto Soudal again proved that they are in a class of their own. In this race, they have the train which completely dominated the Tour de France for a few years and the addition of Jens Debusschere has only made them stronger. As none of their rivals have their best lead-outs in this race, they are simply unrivalled as they proved in today’s stage. Today Greipel was able to keep up with his teammate and the lead-out was so well-drilled that he barely had to sprint to take the win.

 

Greipel and Lotto Soudal still have one chance to win another stage before they turn their attention to Tim Wellens, Tiesj Benoot and Jurgen Roelandts for the GC battle. Tomorrow’s stage to Ardooie is a classic that Greipel has already won twice in the past and there is no doubt that he will go all out in a quest to make it three in the Belgian city when the race returns to the home country of his team.

 

At the same time, Jesper Asselman will enjoy the best day of his sporting life as he gets the chance to wear the leader’s jersey in the a WorldTour race. This is a just reward for an aggressive approach to the first two stages and is clearly the highlight of what has been a mediocre first season for Roompot. The Dutch team will do their utmost to defend the lead in their home race but they know that they can’t really do much. Their only chance is to make sure that the early break is caught and then cross their fingers that neither Greipel nor Viviani will finish in the top 2 or Jacopo Guarnieri or Danny van Poppel will win the stage.

 

The first three stages always had the potential to cause some drama if the conditions were sufficiently windy but that has not been the case. The first two stages have been taking place in beautiful conditions. Tomorrow the riders may have some rain but luckily it should be dry at the finish. Furthermore, the windier conditions could create more nervousness but as it will mainly be a tailwind and there will barely be any crosswind section, it shouldn’t be too bad. Furthermore, the wind is very unlikely to be strong enough to do just the slightest damage.

 

This means that we should be in for another relatively straightforward sprint stage. Roompot will be very attentive in the finale to make sure than Gijs van Hoecke doesn’t join the break. He is the only rider who could potentially take the overall lead by winning all three sprints in the golden kilometre. However, they should have a relatively easy time as they only have to watch one rider. With a sprint finish on the cards, the break will probably escape right from the gun and then Roompot will be riding on the front to control the situation.

 

Wanty and Topsport Vlaanderen are likely to be in the break as they are fighting hard for the sprints jersey and there may also be riders from Cannondale-Garmin or Ag2r in the break as they have no big-name sprinters. With Roompot controlling the situation, they are unlikely to get much of an advantage and then it will be interesting to see which sprint teams come to the fore.

 

Everybody knows that Roompot will do everything to keep the jersey and this means that the sprint teams can probably save energy for most of the day. Lotto Soudal may put Stig Broeckx on the front at some point while Trek may also come to the fore. Sky didn’t get much help in today’s stage so they will definitely allow themselves a free ride until we get to the lead-out phase.

 

Again it will be interesting to see whether the break will make it to the golden kilometre or not. Roompot hope that the escapees will pick up the seconds so they will probably make it. However, if it’s a small break like today, we should see some of the GC riders go for the remaining seconds like Philippe Gilbert and Andriy Grivko did in today’s stage.

 

In the finale, the break will be caught and then the scene is set for another sprint finish on a circuit that most of the riders know very well. It’s not very technical but the three turns in quick succession at the flamme rouge are always hugely important. It will be very important to be near the front at this point as splits can occur, especially if the roads are still wet. However, the finishing straight is still pretty long so with the right amount of team support, there will be time to get back in contention.

 

It is very hard to imagine that Lotto Soudal will not be on the front when we get to the turns. Unless they get boxed in the finale, no one has the firepower to beat them. Today they had so much power left that Greipel barely had to sprint and there is no reason that they can’t deliver a similar performance tomorrow.

 

The main issue is whether Greipel can stay with his teammates. That’s what failed in stage 1 and with a more technical finish, the German will have a harder time, especially if the roads are wet which he definitely doesn’t like. However, if he is still on the wheel of his teammates when they go through the final turns, he will be virtually impossible to beat. He may not have the speed he head in the Tour but he is still the fastest rider in this field and with the best lead-out at his side, Greipel is the overwhelming favourite to win the stage.

 

Today Greipel never really came under threat as the riders who have the speed to potentially beat him were too far back. One of them was Elia Viviani whose Sky team had spent way too much energy in the early part of the stage to play any role in the finale. Very far from the finish, Viviani only had Andy Fenn at his side and the pair never managed to move up.

 

Tomorrow Sky are unlikely to do any work so they should have the entire team at their disposal in the finale. In stage 1, they proved that they have the power to position Viviani well and they will probably try to use a similar tactic. They know that they can’t beat Lotto Soudal but they will try to drop Viviani off on Greipel’s wheel. The Italian is one of the fastest riders, especially at the beginning of a stage race when he is not too fatigued. If he is on Greipel’s wheel, he could take win number 2.

 

Today Trek decided to do the sprint for Danny van Poppel as he had the chance to take the leader’s jersey. However, the Dutchman came up short and now his chance to ride himself into white is much smaller. As the lead-out failed in stage 1, Giacomo Nizzolo who is usually their number 1 sprinter, has not had a chance to sprint yet and so his only real chance comes tomorrow. This means that the American team will probably turn their attention to the Italian.

 

On paper, Trek have a good lead-out but they have not really had much luck yet. However, Nizzolo is excellent at positioning himself and he is technically very good. He will clearly benefit from the technical section at the flamme rouge where he can potentially get a gap on some of his rival sprinters. Furthermore, he is one of the fastest riders in this field. It will be hard for him to beat Greipel but if he can position himself on the German’s wheel or Greipel makes a mistake, he will be ready to strike.

 

In the Giro d’Italia, the trio of Ferrari-Richeze-Modolo completely dominated the finales but in this race they have done very poorly in the sprints. Yesterday Ferrari got a rare chance to lead the team in the sprints but today Modolo was back in his usual role at the back of the train. However, it was again evident that Modolo is nowhere near the form he had in the Giro and that he doesn’t have the speed to match the best in these power sprints.

 

Tomorrow’s more technical sprint should suit Lampre-Merida much better and it won’t be impossible for Ferrari, Richeze and Modolo to lead the peloton through the final turns. They are technically very good and have the right kamikaze approach for these late turns. If they can get a gap to some of their rivals at this point of the stage and show the kind of speed they had in the Giro, this could finally be Modolo’s chance to return to the top.

 

Andrea Guardini has not had much luck in this race. The Italian is definitely one of the fastest riders for these sprints but he has paid the price for a lack of team support. He only has Ruslan Tleubayev and Alexey Lutsenko for the lead-out and those two riders simply don’t have the speed to match the well-drilled lead-outs. He needs a lot of luck to win tomorrow’s stage but he is definitely one of the riders with the speed to do so.

 

As said, we expect Trek to ride for Nizzolo but there are no guarantees. Danny van Poppel may be given another chance and the Dutchman is clearly in the form of his life. His sprint in stage 1 was impressive and he recently won a very hard stage of the Tour de Wallonie where he beat no less of a figure than Philippe Gilbert on the Mur de Thuin. He has a very strong team to support him and at the moment he has the speed to win.

 

The only team that has really had the firepower to match Lotto Soudal is Etixx-QuickStep. The Belgians have done a great job in the first two stages but it is evident that Tom Boonen lacks the speed to realistically go for the win in these stages. Today he could do no more than follow wheels and yesterday he drifted backwards when he launched his sprint. However, team support plays a crucial role in this kind of sprint with late turns and this means that positioning could turn Boonen into a winner.

 

Arnaud Demare bounced back from a poor sprint on stage one to take sixth in today’s stage. FDJ rode very attentively throughout the stage and were clearly in a determined mood right from the start. They did a much better job at delivering Demare near the front and he did a solid sprint too. However, he still doesn’t have the right amount of team support to start his sprint near the front. He is still one of the fastest riders but he needs quite a bit of luck to win the stage.

 

Today things really didn’t work out for Jonas Van Genechten but the in-form Belgian still has one chance to go for glory. IAM did a very good job in stage 1 but today they were hampered by Breschel’s crash. Van Genechten has proved that he has the speed to win WorldTour sprints and he showed good condition in stage 1 and at the Tour de Wallonie. If he is up there in the finale, it won’t be impossible for him to come out on top.

 

It was always evident that Katusha had a lot of firepower for the sprint stages and today they put it on show. Usually, Alexander Porsev would have been their man for these sprints but the Russian is apparently not at his best. This means that the Russian team have been supporting Viacheslav Kuznetsov but today it was Jacopo Guarnieri who took second. The Italian seemed to be playing his usual role of lead-out man when he suddenly found himself in a good position. In general, he is very good at positioning himself and it is not the first time when he has been on the podium in WorldTour sprints in this way. Tomorrow it could be a good idea to support Kristoff’s lead-out man and even though he is not fast enough to win, he can do well.

 

In stage 1, Roberto Ferrari was given his chance while Modolo was back in the leadership for today’s stage. If the team decides to support Ferrari again tomorrow, he should be able to do well. He will have one of the best lead-out trains at his disposal and he is very good at positioning himself. With his kamikaze approach, he should benefit from the late turns and even though he is not as fast as he once was, he should be able to do well.

 

Moreno Hofland has not had much success in this race yet. The Dutchman is a talented sprinter but he needs harder, more technical races to really shine. The sprint stages here are probably too easy for him as he misses the speed to beat the best. LottoNL-Jumbo have done a solid lead-out job and Robert Wagner has plenty of experience in that role but a spot on the podium is probably the maximum for the Dutch sprinter.

 

Of course Jempy Drucker also deserves a mention. The Luxembourger is not a pure sprinter but an outstanding Manuel Quinziato has done a great job at positioning him near the front. This has allowed him to take two top 5 results and he was actually not far off the win yesterday. He is probably not fast enough to win but he could again finish on the podium.

 

Today Giant-Alpecin looked strong in the final part of the race but when it was time for the sprint, they were nowhere to be seen. They were missing Albert Timmer who seems to be sick and in this race their young team simply don’t have the speed to match the best. Today Zico Waeytens did the sprint but there is no doubt that Nikias Arndt is their fastest finisher. The German won’t win the stage but he still has the potential to do well.

 

Finally, we will point to Magnus Cort. Orica-GreenEDGE have a strong lead-out but miss the pure sprinter to finish it off. Today they were set back when Leigh Howard crashed. The Australian was probably the designated sprinter but instead Cort had to do his own sprint. Tomorrow the Dane is likely to be back in the captaincy role. He doesn’t have the speed to win but Orica-GreenEDGE have the lead-out to deliver him to a top result.

                                                                                       

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Sascha Modolo, Andrea Guardini, Danny van Poppel, Tom Boonen, Arnaud Demare

Jokers: Jonas Van Genechten, Jacopo Guarnieri, Roberto Ferrari, Moreno Hofland, Jempy Drucker, Nikias Arndt, Magnus Cort, Dylan Groenewegen, Roy Jans