After three days in survival mode, it is finally time for the GC riders to show their cards. The time trial has usually been the most important stage of the Dutch/Belgian race and this year it will be no different as the 14km race against the clock offers the contenders their biggest chance to gain time on the rivals.

 

The course

Time trialling has always been a key part of the Eneco Tour and of course it will be no different in 2015. The TT has often been the single most decisive stage and with an easier queen stage, it will be even more important in 2015 than it has been in 2013 and 2014. Furthermore, the stage is longer than it was 12 month ago and with plenty of flat, straight roads, it should offer lots of terrain for the specialists to make a difference.

 

This year the time trial comes on the fourth day and after a day in Belgium, the riders are back in the Netherlands for the individual test. The city of Hoogerheide which is well-known as a key venue in cyclo-cross, will play host to the stage that covers a distance of 14km on the southern outskirts of the city. The circuit is almost rectangular and is mostly made up of straight road with only a few corners to break the rhythm, mainly in the final part when the riders are back in the city.

 

In 2013, the time trial was pretty hilly while last year’s stage was completely flat. This year it is again a predominantly flat ride. The first 1.5km are mainly descending while the final three kilometres are gradually ascending but the riders will stay between 0m and 25m above sea level, meaning that the stage profile looks much harder than it is. In the finale, the riders will turn right just after a roundabout and then turn right in another roundabout before they take two turns in quick succession to get onto the 100m finishing straight.

 

Hoogerheide has often hosted major cyclo-cross races, including the World Championships, but it has rarely been used for road racing. In fact, it has not been the scene of the finish of a major race for more than a decade.

 

 

The weather

When it comes to the weather, it has been a fantastic start to the race which should be like the spring classics but has been held in summerlike conditions. Thursday should be another great day with bright sunshine in the afternoon and a maximum temperature of no less than 30 degrees. However, rain is forecasted for the evening but as things stand, all riders should have dry conditions for their ride.

 

It will be the windiest day yet, with a moderate wind blowing from an easterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a crosswind on the rectangular circuit. There will be a tailwind section at the midpoint while it will be important to save energy for the final 4.5km that will be raced into a headwind.

 

The favourites

The first part of the Eneco Tour has been a waiting game for the GC riders. With no wind, there has been no chance to make a difference and it has been all about staying safe in the frantic finishes. Unlike in the last few years, we have had no surprise attacks and splits in the finales and so the key contenders are almost all equal on time as we go into the next phase of the race. Only Philippe Gilbert and Andriy Grivko have been attentive to pick up a few bonus seconds in the golden kilometre yesterday but otherwise it is status quo after three days of racing.

 

That will definitely change in tomorrow’s stage. The time trial has traditionally been the most important stage of the race. In fact, it almost completely decided the race in the early years. Recently, the race has become a lot harder though and the two latest winners have both taken their victories despite being mediocre time triallists.

 

That doesn’t change the fact that the TT is the most important stage of the race. This year the queen stage is less selective that it has been in the last two years and this just makes the race against the clock even more important. Unless a rider can benefit from the race tactics to ride away on stage 6, a small group is likely to sprint for the win in that stage. Hence, the only real chance to gain time comes in the final stage where it is traditionally a matter of seconds, and by scoring bonus seconds.

 

In a race that is decided by seconds, it is important that the TT is not too long and that has never been the case. However, at 14km this year’s TT is significantly longer than last year’s challenge and we should see bigger time gaps. In fact, it is a relatively typical Eneco Tour TT as it is flat and suited to specialists. The profile looks pretty dramatic but as it is only a matter of climbing 25m in 4km, the altitude gains are really nothing.

 

Importantly, it seems that all riders will have identical conditions for their rides and unless the rain starts to fall much earlier than forecasted we should have an honest battle between the best time triallists in the race. The likes of Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Dumoulin and Rohan Dennis are all absent, meaning that it is a pretty open battle.

 

Nonetheless, two riders stand out as the big favourites and we expect it to come down to a close battle between Adriano Malori and Matthias Brändle. There is no doubt that the former is the biggest name of the pair and he has clearly the best results in time trials. However, recently the latter has been riding stronger than the Italian who has been pretty disappointing in his latest time trials.

 

This should make it a very open contest and it could easily come down to just a very few seconds between those two riders. However, we will put Malori on top of our list of favourites. The Italian has proved that he is one of the very best in power time trials that are not too long and so this course is simply tailor-made for him.

 

Malori has evidently had a disappointing TT season. He was only 9th and 4th in the Tour de Suisse TTs and the 8th place in the Tour was far below his expectations. Nonetheless, he has still managed to win the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe TT and beat an in-rom Fabian Cancellara in the Tirreno prologue and he was less than a second from beating Tony Martin in the Algarve TT.

 

Malori still suffers a bit in the very long TTs but this is his distance. With no technical challenges, he will have plenty of room to get his big gear going. His condition is a bit uncertain as he has not been racing since the Tour de France and he has had a pretty lazy approach to the first stages in this race, riding at the back of the bunch. However, it is probably just a reflection of the fact that the TT is his big goal and he has mainly been saving energy for tomorrow. Malori will be ready to strike and he is our favourite to take the win.

 

It won’t be easy to beat Brändle though. The Austrian has clearly improved a lot in the time trials. Last year he was a perennial top 10 finisher in short, flat TTs but this year he has become a winner. He beat no less of a figure than Rohan Dennis in the Tour of Belgium prologue and he was third behind Dumoulin and Cancellara in the Tour de Suisse prologue. Most recently, he beat Malori in the Tour TT where he was seventh.

 

Brändle is at his best on the very short courses and a 14km TT is probably a slightly longer than his favourite distance. However, it is pretty similar to what he faced in the Tour where he did well. He has done nothing to hide that he is targeting the GC in this race so his condition should be good even though he hasn’t raced since the Tour. It is time for Brändle to win a WorldTour TT and tomorrow could be his day.

 

Jos van Emden was once regarded as a big time trial talent but he has disappeared into an anonymous role as domestique. He suddenly rediscovered his best legs in the Tour de France TT where he was the best of the rest behind Dennis, Martin, Cancellara and Dumoulin, taking a surprise fifth place. Now he is keen to confirm that he is back to his best and this short, flat course is very good for him. It is similar to the one he faced in the Tour and if he can back that performance up, he may be able to beat Malori and Brändle.

 

Van Emden is not the only reinvigorated LottoNL time triallist. A few years ago Rick Flens was destined to become the next big Dutch time triallist when he won a stage in the Tour of Denmark at a relatively young age. However, he lost the edge in the TTs which became less of a focused as he developed into an anonymous domestique.

 

That has now changed for Flens who seems to be back at his former level. He was second in the Dutch championships where he even beat Dumoulin and most recently he was third behind Bialobloci and Kiryienka in the Tour de Pologne TT. This kind of short, flat TT is tailor-made for him and he has lots of confidence at the moment. Last Saturday he said that he now believes that he can again win a TT and tomorrow could be his day in the spotlight.

 

No one had ever mentioned Fabio Felline as a possible winner of a time trial when he was a surprise third in the Etoile de Besseges TT. The surprise was even bigger when he beat teammate Bob Jungels in the Criterium International TT and he confirmed his progress with fantastic TTs in the Giro and Pais Vasco. In this race, he is gunning for GC and he showed relatively good condition in San Sebastian. There is a chance that this stage is a bit too much about power for him but his performances in the early part of the season suggest that he can handle this kind of course too.

 

Wilco Kelderman seemed to have lost the exceptional TT skills that’s saw him deliver a breakthrough performance in the 2012 Criterium du Dauphiné. In 2013 and the early part of 2014 he was not at his former level but now he has managed to turn things around. He beat Flens and Dumoulin at the Dutch championships and he rode a great TT at the Tour. However, he crashed a few days later and he is still suffering from back pain. Hence, his team is not too confident in him for this race but he still hopes for a top 10 finish. Tomorrow we will get a chance to see how he is going.

 

BMC are mainly here for Greg Van Avermaet and Philippe Gilbert but their best card in the TT could be Manuel Quinziato. Last year the Italian was fourth in the Eneco TT and in general he did some amazing TTs in 2014. This year he has not been at the same level. However, he has been very impressive in the first three stages where he has single-handedly kept Drucker in a good position. Last year he learned that the race is too hard for him to go for GC but tomorrow he will still be eager to do well.

 

Patrick Gretsch is very inconsistent in the time trials. When he is on form he is flying but very often he is not even in the top 20. At the moment, he seems to be riding really well though as he was sixth in the Tour de Pologne TT. He usually needs slightly longer distances to really shine but he should be able to do well

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have a couple of good time triallists. Svein Tuft is no longer the rider he once was and Michael Hepburn has never lived up to his lofty potential. However, the latter has still had good rides on certain occasions, like in last year’s Tour of Qatar where he won the TT, and in this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico where he was sixth in the TT. He will probably never be a rider for the long time trials but this distance and terrain are very good for him.

 

Manuele Boaro was once regarded as a big TT talent but he has never fulfilled his potential. While he has improved his climbing a lot, he is no longer the time triallist he conce was. However, he would still have won the Criterium International TT if he had not had bad luck and he was solid in the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe too. It will be a bit of a surprise if he wins the stage but he should be able to do well.

 

Andriy Grivko is always strong in this race and by sprinting for bonus seconds he has clearly indicated his intentions. The Ukrainian is always in the top 10 of the Eneco Tour TT and it will be a surprise if he misses out tomorrow. He is a solid time triallist but he has never won a major TT. He is unlikely to win the stage but he should be up there.

 

His teammate Lars Boom is a former winner of this race and he has also won prologues in big races like Paris-Nice and the Criterium du Dauphiné. However, he is no longer the time triallist he once was. Last year he was only 9th in the Eneco TT and one year earlier he was 10th. Especially last year, he was in peak condition while he seems to be at a lower level this year, after suffering in the queen stage at the Tour of Denmark. He has just come back from illness and this makes his condition even more uncertain.

 

Niki Terpstra is one of the GC riders who should benefit from the time trial. However, the Dutchman is not a real specialist and apart from a surprise win in this year’s Tour of Qatar TT he has never really been able to match the best. On the other hand, he seems to be in very good condition at the moment so we won’t rule out another surprise from the Dutchman.

 

Simon Spilak looms as a dark horse for the time trial. The Slovenian has improved a lot in TTs and did amazing rides in both the Tour de Suisse and the Tour de Romandie. However, his condition doesn’t seem to be at its best and Katusha are referring to Kuznetsov and Kochetkov as their GC riders. Furthermore, the course is probably too much about power for Spilak. On the other hand he has been riding attentively near the front.

 

Yves Lampaert has improved his time trialling a lot since he joined Etixx-QuickStep. It has always been one of his assets but this year he has turned his many top 20s into top 10s in races like the 3 Days of West-Flanders and De Panne, the Tour of Belgium and Ster ZLM Toer. He is probably not strong enough to win a WorldTour TT yet but he should be able to do well.

 

Astana have another two cards to play. Alexey Lutsenko seems to be riding really well at the moment and is targeting the GC. Last year he won the Tour of Denmark TT on a similar course so he should do well. Lieuwe Westra was once one of the best time triallists in the world but that is no longer the case. Furthermore, he seems to be riding more as a domestique in this race so we will be pretty surprised if he suddenly manages to turn things around tomorrow.

 

Tobias Ludvigsson is the Giant-Alpecin GC rider in this race. The Swede is a TT specialist who showed great promise at the start of the 2014 season. However, he has been unable to back it up but there is no coubt that he has the potential.

 

We are curious to see what Julian Alaphilippe can do. The Frenchman had never done well in time trials when he suddenly took third in the California TT. However, that course was a lot more technical than this one which is all about power. We expect Alaphilippe to lose time but you never know with one of the most talented athletes.

 

Another great talent is Dylan van Baarle who is also a solid time triallist. He has always been off the pace at the pro level but he showed big signs of improvement in the Tour TT. If he can confirm that trend, he should set himself well up for the GC tomorrow.

 

Michael Rogers is a former triple world champion but he is definitely no longer the same time triallist and he rarely finishes in the top 10. However, he is still going for GC in this race and this requires a good ride tomorrow. He has just finished the Tour where he was clearly tired so his condition is uncertain. Another solid candidate is his teammate Christopher Juul who was second in the Tour of Denmark TT and has improved a lot in the discipline.

 

Greg Van Avermaet and Philippe Gilbert are the two biggest GC favourites but tomorrow it will probably be about limiting their losses. The former has suddenly improved a lot in the discipline but he has achieved his results on shorter, more technical courses. This one is probably a bit too much about power. Gilbert is former Belgian champion but in the last few years he has not been time trialling well.

 

Finally, Victor Campenaerts deserves a mention. The Topsport Vlaanderen rider is a solid time trial talent who was third in the Ster ZLM Toer prologue and second in the Boucles de la Mayenne prologue. This race is obviously at another level so he won’t be able to repeat those results but he is still capable of a good ride.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Adriano Malori

Other winner candidates: Matthias Brändle, Jos van Emden

Outsiders: Rick Flens, Fabio Felline, Wilco Kelderman, Manuel Quinziato, Patrick Gretsch, Michael Hepburn Manuele Boaro, Andriy Grivko, Lars Boom, Niki Terpstra

Jokers: Simon Spilak, Yves Lampaert, Alexey Lutsenko, Lieuwe Westra, Tobias Ludvigsson, Julian Alaphilippe, Dylan van Baarle, Victor Campenaerts, Michael Rogers, Christopher Juul, Greg Van Avermaet, Philippe Gilbert, Svein Tuft, Jens Mouris, Lasse Norman, Ramunas Navardauskas, Aleksejs Saramotins, Johan Le Bon, Andrey Amador, Damien Gaudin