The GC battle is about to heat up in a very big weekend of time trialling and climbing but before we get to the big clash between the favourites, the sprinters will have a chance to shine. After missing out on their first opportunity two days ago, the fast riders will be fired up for the flattest stage of the entire race but first they need to shelve their disagreements and find out how to bring the early break back.

 

The course

Italy may be known for its hilly terrain but it also includes one of the flattest parts of Europe. The Po valley includes no topographical challenges at all and makes it possible for the Giro organizers to design stages that are flatter than what can be found in the Tour de France and the Vuelta a Espana. The 2015 edition of the race will such a stage on day 13 which will give the sprinters their second and final chance in the second week and the GC riders an easy day one day before the crucial time trial.

 

The organizers have made the wise decision to make the stage a short one as the easterly run from Montecchio Maggiore west of Vicenza to Jesolo is only 147km long. It is one of the shortest stages of the Giro, and it is also entirely flat. The route runs across the Venetian Plain from Montecchio Maggiore through Vicenza, Piazzola sul Brenta, Mirano, Mestre, and Musile di Piave to Eraclea where the final 20km begin. The riders have to watch out for a number of obstacles, such as roundabouts, speed bumps and traffic dividers, while crossing urban areas.

 

The stage has a fast-running finale on level roads. After crossing the Piave River in Eraclea, the route first hits the city of Jesolo and then reaches Cortellazzo via the road that rolls along the riverbank. Here in Cortellazzo, the road turns right onto a bridge with narrowed roadway. The stage course then takes wide, flat and straight roads (“sprinkled” with roundabouts with different diameters) that lead to the finish line. The home straight is approx. 500m long, on 7m wide asphalt road. The penultimate kilometre has two roundabouts before the riders turn left in the final roundabout with 500m to go. In the finale, the flat road bends slightly to the right.

 

Jesolo has hosted a Giro d’Italia stage finish 4 times in the past, most recently in 1988 when Di Basco took the win.

 

 

 

The weather

The pleasant start to the race is a distant memory for the riders who have had to ride in the rain for two consecutive days. Nothing suggests that the weather is improving and at the moment it seems that they will also have to endure rainy conditions in the final three stages of the second week.

 

Tomorrow should be a very wet day in Italy as it will be raining quite heavily all day and it is unlikely that the riders will get any chance to just catch a glimpse of the sun. In the morning, the temperature will reach a maximum of 18 degrees but during the race it will be colder, with a temperature of just 15 degrees.

 

Like today, it will be windy as a rather strong wind will be blowing from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind almost all day before they turn into a crosswind with 32km to go. Then there are short tail- and headwind sections before the riders get to the coast with 10km to go and then it will be a tailwind in the final part of the stage.

 

The favourites

After a hard first week, the sprinters were looking forward to the middle section of the race as the second week was set to offer them two big opportunities and not too hard climbing. Hence, it was almost a disaster that they missed out on the chance to sprint in Forli when the combination of a lack of cooperation and a strong tailwind made it impossible to catch a surprisingly strong break that was made of almost exclusively of pro continental riders.

 

This leaves them with just three potential sprint opportunities. There is no doubt that it will be a sprint in Milan on the final day and they may get a chance in stage 17 which could also be won by a strong breakaway. Tomorrow’s stage is the easiest of the entire race and despite the outcome of stage 10, it will be a huge surprise if the sprinters don’t get the chance to battle for the win in Jesolo on the outskirts of Venezia.

 

The stage is short and has the kind of completely flat profile that you can only find in the Giro d’Italia. It should really not be too difficult to set up a bunch sprint in this kind of stage but the war between the sprints teams after the recent failure may come into play.

 

In stage 10, everything seemed to be on track when IAM, Lotto Soudal, Trek and Giant-Alpecin all put a rider on the front. When Matteo Pelucchi abandoned, IAM withdrew from the chase but Lotto Soudal and Trek quickly added another rider to the team of chasers. However, when things got serious in the end, only Lotto Soudal were willing to dig into their lead-out resources and they even had GC rider Maxime Monfort taking turns on the front. Adam Hansen and Lars Bak also worked hard and only Greg Henderson was saved for the lead-out.

 

As opposed to this, Trek only used Fumiyuki Beppu, Calvin Watson and Kristof Vandewalle and they didn’t use a single lead-out rider at any point. The same can be said about Giant-Alpecin who only had Cheng Ji, Tom Stamsnijder and Caleb Fairly riding on the front. Apart from a late turn by Jan Polanc, Lampre-Merida didn’t do anything at all and LottoNL-Jumbo didn’t take a single turn.

 

After the stage, Lotto Soudal were extremely frustrated and said that they wouldn’t do the same kind of work again unless the other sprint teams stepped up. Trek sports director Adriano Baffi admitted that he had made a big mistake. He wanted to put Greipel under pressure but in the end the strategy paid off. Giant-Alpecin admitted that they had not gone all in and LottoNL-Jumbo said that their 7-man roster made it impossible for them to use anyone for the early work.

 

This should make for an interesting dynamic in this stage but it will be a surprise if the sprint teams can’t shelve their disagreements and make a concerted effort to bring the early break back. This time they will have a headwind for most of the day and this should make it significantly easier. Furthermore, they will enter a crosswind section in the finale and with rainy weather also being a factor, this will make the GC teams very nervous. They are likely to hit the front in the finale in an attempt to stay safe and so the break won’t have many chances. However, they probably need to bring it back before they make the final turn into a tailwind as the final part of the stage may suit a strong breakaway.

 

Boem’s success means that we may see a more animated start than we usually do in this kind of stage and it may take a little longer for the break to be formed. However, most know that their efforts will be doomed and the sprint teams should be strong enough to make sure that a small group from smaller teams gets clear.

 

In this kind of short stage, it will be very important that the gap doesn’t get too big. Despite their disagreements, we expect the sports directors of Trek, Lotto Soudal, Giant-Alpecin and LottoNL-Jumbo to speak together and we feel pretty sure that they will form an alliance to keep the break firmly under control. They won’t take any chances and with the GC riders being nervous due to the rain and windy conditions, it should be back together by the time we get to the late crosswind section.

 

Today Tinkoff-Saxo briefly tried to accelerate in the wind and it would be no surprise to see one of the big teams try a move. The peloton will definitely split but unless a crash splits the field on the wet roads, all the major contenders should make it with this kind of wind.

 

Everything is set for a big sprint finish but it won’t  be an easy thing to handle this finale. There are lots of roundabouts on the long straight road along the coast. Inside the final two kilometres, the riders will go straight through two such obstacles and turn left in another just after the flamme rouge and then there’s that small right-hand bend 500m from the line. With wet roads, it will be very difficult to stay upright and it will be very difficult for the lead-outs to stay together.

 

This means that it should be a sprint from the riders who excel in technical conditions and who are willing to take few risks. That doesn’t suit André Greipel. The German is clearly the fastest rider in this race and his team has really stepped up its game to do some beautiful lead-outs. However, Greipel is usually not willing to take any risks in wet finales and he is unlikely to do so tomorrow. He already has a stage win and his big goal is still the Tour de France. He won’t go all out in a quest to take win number two here.

 

Furthermore, Lotto Soudal don’t have the same kind of firepower as Trek and Lampre-Merida and it will be very important for Greipel to stay with Henderson in the finale. Very often he loses contact with his lead-out man in this kind of treacherous conditions and so it will be hard for him to win.

 

Instead, he will put our money on Giacomo Nizzolo. The Italian got the race off to a bad start as he was suffering from allergy and he didn’t look like his usual self in the first part of the race. However, he has clearly ridden himself into form. He has been staying with the best on the climbs for a long time and he has been very hard to beat in the intermediate sprints.

 

Furthermore, Nizzolo likes technical finishes where he can use his good acceleration and his technical skills. He is not afraid of wet weather and has often excelled in wet conditions. On paper he has one of the best lead-outs with lots of firepower and even though they are unlikely to match Lampre-Merida, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Nizzolo start his sprint from Sacha Modolo’s wheel. If that is the case, the Trek rider should be the fastest and then he will finally take that elusive stage win.

 

His biggest rival could be Modolo. Like Nizzolo, he likes very technical finishes and he would actually have preferred more turns closer to the finish. This time the final big obstacle comes with 1km to go and this could make the sprint a bit too long for the Lampre-Merida rider.

 

However, Modolo has the best lead-out in this race. In every sprint, Roberto Ferrari and Maximilano Richese have hit the front inside the final two kilometres and Richeze has always dropped Modolo off in the best possible position. That was also the case in the sprint for fifth in Forli but that sprint showed that Nizzolo is that tiny tad faster than the Italian. However, lead-outs can risks are very important in this kind of finale and that made be enough to give Modolo the win.

 

Of course André Greipel has to be mentioned among the favourites. It may not be the perfect stage for him but the German is still the fastest rider in this race. The final turn doesn’t seem to be one that will cause a big slowdown and this should suit a power sprinter like Greipel.

 

Lotto Soudal did a very good lead-out in stage 6 but Adam Hansen simply doesn’t have the speed to keep up with the real lead-out men. It will be up to Henderson to keep Greipel in a good position and if they can stay together in the wet finale, Greipel will be the man to beat.

 

Elia Viviani won the first sprint stage but since then he has not been in contention for a win. The Italian is paying the price for a lack of team support and he has never been good at positioning himself. Tomorrow’s stage doesn’t suit him very well as he is not taking too many risks either. However, Viviani is probably the second fastest rider in this race and if he can finds a gap, he can do a long sprint in the tailwind. This may be enough to win.

 

Not much have gone to plan for Giant-Alpecin in the sprints. They don’t have their best lead-out in this race and the combination of Bert De Backer, Nikias Arndt and Luka Mezgec don’t have much experience in working together. On paper they have lots of firepower but they have not been able to stay together in the finales. That won’t be any easier in this kind of finale. However, Mezgec is still one of the fastest riders in this field and if Giant-Alpecin can finally nail it, he will have a chance to win.

 

Nicola Ruffoni has a reputation of taking big risks in the sprints and this stage is simply tailor-made for him. The young Italian is a pure sprinter and he will relish this kind of short, flat stage. Last year he was centimetres from beating Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel in similar stages in the Tour of Britain and he has the speed to win. He lacks a bit of team support but if he is in a good position, he could be the rider to continue the Bardiani success.

 

Alexander Porsev has not had much luck in this race but he has the speed to be up there. His main asset is the fact that he has Luca Paolini to support him in the finale. The Italian has lots of experience and is an expert in staying in position on wet roads. Porsev has stepped up his level massively and if he can follow Paolini in the finale, it may be time for him to finish on the podium in a grand tour.

 

Davide Appollonio has to fend for himself in the finales but he is usually very good at positioning himself. He usually needs a harder finale to really excel but he is hugely consistent in the bunch sprints. After an injury-marred start to the year, he has reached his best condition and tomorrow could be his day to shine.

 

Juan Jose Lobato had marked stages 11 and 12 out as his big goals for this race. Yesterday he won the bunch sprint behind the breakaway and looked extremely strong on the climbs. Today the going got a bit too tough and now he only has the pure bunch sprints left if he wants to win a stage. He is very fast and has the speed to win. However, his positioning is terrible and unless he gets that right, he won’t even finish in the top 10.

 

Finally, Eduard Grosu and Heinrich Haussler deserve a mention. Both went into the race as lead-out men but after Daniele Colli and Matteo Pelucchi have abandoned, they may be given a chance. None of them are fast enough to win but they could sprint themselves into the top 5 if things come together.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Other winner candidates: Sacha Modolo, André Greipel

Outsiders: Elia Viviani, Luka Mezgec, Nikola Ruffoni

Jokers: Alexander Porsev, Davide Appollonio, Juan Jose Lobato, Eduard Grosu, Heinrich Haussler