Orica-GreenEDGE lived up to their status at the big favourites in the team time trial and as we predicted yesterday, they put Simon Gerrans in the maglia rosa. However, he is likely to lose the lead to his teammate Michael Matthews already on the second day as a host of hungry sprinters are ready to grab what is one of only a two chances in the hilly first week.

 

The course

Unlike the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia mostly includes hilly stages very early in the race but they have mostly reserved the first road stage for the sprinters. That won’t be any different in 2015 as the second stage is a mostly flat affair along the coast. The fast finishers have to be ready from the start as they will have to wait a few more days before getting their next opportunity and it will be very different from last year where the flat Irish roads made the first days a sprint festival.

 

The 177.0km stage starts in Albenga and ends in the biggest city on the Ligurian coast, Genova. This first mass-start stage has a mainly flat route, but features a wavier and more challenging profile in the first part, with the Testico climb (known from the Trofeo Laigueglia) just 32 kilometres from the start as the riders do a small loop in the hilly hinterland, followed by constant gentle undulations, and the “Capi” on the Aurelia road, along the coast of the Western Riviera. The Pratozanino ascent (4th category, 4.2km, 4.9%, max. 10%), just past Cogoleto, will be the first categorised climb of the 2015 Giro but its summit is located with 53km to go. After reaching Genova, the route takes the 9.5-km city circuit, to be covered twice.

 

The 9.5-km final circuit, running entirely along city roads, will be covered twice. The finish line is set in Via XX Settembre. The stage course runs through Piazza de Ferrari (with a short stretch on stone-slab paving), then goes down to Piazza Brignole, where the road slowly starts to rise, up to Piazza Verdi. Here, a 1-km dash with a 4% gradient leads to Albaro, followed by a false-flat drag and the descent down into Boccadasse, where the route reaches the seafront. The course runs flat up to the last kilometre (completely straight), where the road climbs steadily, with gradients of around 2%. The home straight is on 8-m wide asphalt road and comes after the riders have left the coast just after the 2km to go mark where they take a right-hand turn that is followed by a left-hand turn just after the flamme rouge

 

Genova has hosted a Giro stage finish 41 times, most recently in 2004 when Bradley McGee beat Olaf Pollack in the opening prologue. In 2000, Alvaro Gonzalez de Galdeano successfully completed a solo breakaway by holding off Jan Svorada and the rest of the peloton by 24 seconds.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders and organizers could not have wished a better start to the race as there were beautiful conditions for the opening team time trial. They will be glad to know that it won’t change for the opening road stage which should again take place in nice conditions.

 

Compared to today, there will be more clouds but there will also be plenty of sunshine for the riders. The temperature at the finish Genova will reach a pleasant maximum of 20 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction and it may pick up slightly as the day goes on. Hence, the riders will first have a headwind before they turn into a cross-tailwind that will assist them for most of the day. Getting closer to Genova, they will turn into a crosswind before they get to the finishing circuit where they will mostly have a crosswind. With 2km to go, they turn into a tailwind while there will be a crosswind from the left on the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Orica-GreenEDGE lived up to their status as the overwhelming favourites for the team time trial as they took a comfortable victory in the opening test. Unsurprisingly, they decided to give their captain Simon Gerrans his first ever chance to wear the maglia rosa to make up for what has been a disastrous spring season.

 

Last year the Australian team had an amazing first week that saw them defend the jersey until stage 8 and Michael Matthews and Pieter Weening both taking stage wins. The team hopes to have a similar run of success this time and in general the first week is tailor-made for them as it includes several lumpy stages for Gerrans and Matthews.

 

Before the riders get to the hills, however, they have to get through tomorrow’s opening road stage which is one for the real sprinters. The fast finishers haven’t been given many opportunities in what is an unusually tough opening week and after tomorrow they will have to wait until Thursday to again get a chance to show their speed. Hence, tomorrow is a crucial day for all of them and as a few teams have designed rosters that are dedicated to the sprints, it is hard not to imagine that it will not be a day for the fast riders.

 

Everybody knows that and the only incentive to go on the attack is that there is a mountains jersey on offer. Hence, we can expect the break to be established straight from the gun and it would be a surprise not to see Nippo-Vini Fantini, Southeast, Androni, Bardiani and CCC in the move. Smaller WorldTour teams like FDJ may also want to be part of the action but a relatively small group of 5-6 riders is likely to take most of the time in the spotlight.

 

It will be interesting to see which riders take the initiative to chase. Many will be looking at Orica-GreenEDGE who always does their best to honour the jersey. They may not have the big favourite for this stage but we can expect the Australians to take most of the responsibility. However, Lotto Soudal are never afraid to work when Greipel is in the race and so we would expect them to lend a hand. Giant-Alpecin and Trek may also come forward but they will probably prefer to keep their powder dry for the finale unless the situation gets dangerous.

 

The first stage of a grand tour is always very nervous and as the riders will be riding along the coast, we can expect it to be a tense affair. However, there won’t be much wind and this should take off a bit of the pressure to always stay near the front. Hopefully, we will be spared the usual crashes but when we get to the finishing circuit, we can expect a big fight for position, especially in the first technical part.

 

With several teams working for a sprint finish, the break will be caught on the circuit and then it will be the big battle between the lead-out trains. We may see one or two riders try an attack on the small climb but it will be possible for them to make it to the finish.

 

Hence, all is set for a big bunch sprint and the sprinters will all be ready to go. What characterizes this year’s race is that the three big sprint teams don’t have their best lead-outs in this race. Mark Cavendish is absent and even though Tom Boonen will try his hand in the sprints, Etixx-QuickStep have built their team around Rigoberto Uran. André Greipel has decided to do the race but he is keeping his lead-out powder dry for the Tour de France and only has Adam Hansen and key lead-out man Greg Henderson at his side in Italy, Finally, Giant-Alpecin had decided to bring a decent lead-out train as the sprints are their main focus but the loss of Tom Veelers is huge setback and now Luka Mezgec can only really rely on Nikias Arndt and Bert De Backer in the hectic finales.

 

The lack of really big lead-out trains mean that we could see some rather confusing sprint and it doesn’t seem like a single team will be able to dominate the sprints. This also means that we could see the sprint victories may be distributed on several different sprinters.

 

On paper, André Greipel is clearly the fastest sprinter in this race but the German may have a hard time. He is not very good at positioning himself and is often afraid of taking too many risks. That means that he is usually very reliant on his lead-out train but with only Greg Henderson at his side, he may have a pretty hard time getting numerous victories in this race. Furthermore, the Giro is often dominated by tricky finales which won’t make it any easier for the big German.

 

However, tomorrow’s sprint is maybe the one that suits him the best. The small climb on the finishing circuit may take the sting out of the legs of some of his rivals but for a strong rider like Greipel it won’t have much of an impact. Furthermore, there aren’t many technical challenges in the final few kilometres and the finishing straight is pretty long. This means that positioning and lead-outs will be less important and it will be more about actual speed. Finally, the finishing straight is pretty wide and this means that the risk of getting boxed in is less, and there will be plenty of room to come from a bit further back if you are one of the fastest.

 

As said, Greipel often has a hard time finding the right position in the tricky finales and he often finds it hard to stay with his lead-out train. In this stage, it will be much easier for him to follow Henderson as there won’t be many turns where they can potentially lose contact. Henderson has loads of experience and has the speed to move Greipel into position so if he can keep up with the Kiwi, the German star should be able to start his sprint from a reasonable position. He showed good form in Turkey where he again suffered from positioning but clearly had good speed and strength on the climbs. The 1% uphill finishing straight suits him down to the ground. With the risk of getting boxed in being pretty small, Greipel must be the favourite to win.

 

Sky are here to win the race with Richie Porte but Elia Viviani will still be given the chance to mix it up in the sprints. However, he won’t have much team support and can only rely on Bernhard Eisel and Salvatore Puccio to position him. In the early part of the year, the British team did a great job to build a lead-out train for their new sprinter but we won’t see much of that kind of stuff in this year’s Giro.

 

That’s not the ideal scenario for Viviani who is usually very bad at positioning himself. With limited team support, we don’t expect to have a very successful Giro but the opening sprint stage may be his biggest chance. The slightly hilly finishing circuit suits him well and when it comes to actual speed, he is probably second in the hierarchy behind Greipel. In this kind of finish it is more about speed than positioning and so Viviani may finally take that overdue stage win in the Giro.

 

When it comes to building a team around a sprint, Trek lead the line. The American team have no GC ambitions in this race and it is almost all about the sprints with Giacomo Nizzolo who finished second no less than four times in 2014. Eugenio Alafaci. Fabio Silvestre, Boy van Poppel and Marco Coledan are all dedicated lead-out men and Fabio Felline also has the speed to play a role in the finales. Last year they did a really good job in positioning Nizzolo and this year they should have an even easier time. This should provide Nizzolo with very good options and in fact he is our favourite to win the red points jersey.

 

Nizzolo has had a quiet start to the year after he was set back by injury in the early part of the season but with a solid training camp and a hard Tour de Romandie in his legs, he is fully ready to go. In fact his team were very pleased with his performance in the Swiss race where he rode very strongly even though the race was too hard to get any sprint opportunity. Last year he showed that he has the speed to win a stage in a grand tour and the uphill finishing straight in Genova suits him well. Due to his great positioning skills, he would have preferred a more technical finale but with his combination of lead-out and speed, he should also be able to do well in this finish.

 

When it comes to power in the absolute finale of the sprint finishes, Lampre-Merida are probably the strongest. Sacha Modolo can rely on the support of Roberto Ferrari and Maximiliano Richeze and that combination worked well in the Tour of Turkey. Here they were up against the powerful Etixx-QuickStep train but they managed to mix it up with the Belgians on a number of occasions. Furthermore, Modolo showed great condition by winning the very tough uphill sprint on stage 6.

 

With this kind of support, Modolo is very likely to win a stage at some point in the race. However, he is usually at his best in the technical finales where the he can use his great bike-handling skills, his acceleration and his good lead-out. This stage doesn’t suit him too well but he is always strong in an uphill sprint. If his team can deliver him on the front, he may be strong enough to take the win.

 

Luka Mezgec secured his first grand tour stage win last year when he won the final stage into Trieste. This year he hopes to take a second victory and he clearly goes into the race in excellent condition. He climbed better than his rival sprinters in the Tour de Romandie and he should be in the mix in some of the pretty hard stages.

 

Mezgec is also strong in the pure bunch sprints but he is probably not quite as fast as the likes of Greipel, Viviani and Nizzolo. In these stages, he usually relies a bit more on his lead-out train to bring him into position but he doesn’t have the best team to support him in this race. The loss of Veelers was a big blow and we can’t expect De Backer and Arndt to dominate the sprints. This stage is less about positioning and more about power and that doesn’t make it a perfect one for the fast Slovenian. On the other hand, he is one of the fastest riders in this race and with his great condition, a victory is definitely within his reach.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo have had a disastrous start to the season and they had to wait until last week to finally get their first victory. Moreno Hofland was the rider who finally managed to open their account when he held off Matteo Pelucchi in the sprint on the second stage of the Tour de Yorskhire.

 

Hofland is again their best card to play when it comes to chasing stages in the Giro and he is clearly in good condition. This kind of uphill finishing straight suits him very well as he proved when he beat some of the best sprinters in the world at last year’s Paris-Nice. The cooperation with lead-out man Robert Wagner seems to be working well at the moment and LottoNL-Jumbo have a pretty powerful team to keep him in position on the flat stages. There are definitely faster riders than him in this race but if his team can position him well, this kind of finish should be one for him.

 

The rider he beat in Yorkshire was Matteo Pelucchi who will be gunning for a home win in the Giro. The Italian has always been among the fastest riders in the peloton as he proved when he won two races in the early part of the year and won a stage against a very classy field in last year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. Being a pure sprinter, however, he has often had a hard time when the course is just slightly undulating.

 

He has improved his endurance a lot but we still expect him to suffer later in the race. His best chance to win a stage will come early in the race. With its amount of climbing, this stage is not a perfect fit for him and the uphill finishing straight doesn’t so him any favours. On the other hand, the presence of Roger Kluge, Heinrich Haussler and Aleksejs Saramotins mean that IAM have one of the most powerful lead-out trains and this finish is very much about actual speed. In that aspect, Pelucchi is very close to the best and if the climbs haven’t taken too much out of his legs, he should be up there.

 

Juan Jose Lobato is doing his first grand tour as a Movistar rider and he has even been given a captaincy role in the team after a spring that saw him emerge as one of the best uphill sprinters in the world. The Spaniard is impressively fast but he often suffers a lot when it comes to positioning. This has made things difficult for him as he is rarely able to rely on a team to support him in the finales. That will again hamper in this race but tomorrow should be one of his best chances in the pure sprint finishes. The wide road and non-technical finale will make positioning less important and this will give him a chance. The uphill finishing straight also suits him pretty well. As he will probably have to start from far behind, it will be hard to win the stage but he has the speed to be up there with the best.

 

Tom Boonen is coming back from injury but in the Tour of Turkey he showed that he is already in solid condition. He had hoped to be able to take the maglia rosa tomorrow but that is no longer an option. However, he will still test himself in the sprint and with Gianni Meersman, Fabio Sabatini and Iljo Keisse he actually has a solid lead-out. He is no longer among the very fastest but in this kind of uphill power sprint, he should be able to do well.

 

Alexander Porsev will get his first ever chance to lead Katusha in the sprints in a grand tour and he will be ready to grab the opportunity. Last year he took a massive step forward and he has improved his strength and climbing a lot. He is definitely very fast but he will be hampered by the lack of team support. He only had Luca Paolini to guide him in the finales but if the Italian can position him well, he has the speed to be on the podium.

 

Nippo-Vini Fantini go into this race with Damiano Cunego as their clear leader but they also have Daniele Colli for the sprints. The Italian has been riding really well all year and was very strong in the Tour of Turkey where he sprinted to a couple of top 5 results. He also made it into the top 5 in Scheldeprijs and seems to be sprinting better than ever before. The uphill finish suits him well and as he is great at positioning himself, he could get the race off to a great start for the smallest team in the race.

 

Nicola Ruffoni is a hugely talented sprinter who nearly beat Kittel and Cavendish twice in last year’s Tour of Britain. He is not very strong in hilly terrain and is unlikely to make it to the finish in Milan. Tomorrow’s stage may be a bit too hilly to suit him well but he has the speed to be up there in this kind of finale which is less about positioning.

 

Finally, it should be noted that Michael Matthews is likely to take the lead after the stage. None of the sprinters are within touching distance of the maglia rosa and so the lead will be taken by the best-placed of the six Orica riders who reached the finish together in today’s stage. That is likely to be Matthews who will contest the sprint in a stage that doesn’t suit him very well.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Sacha Modolo, Luka Mezgec, Moreno Hofland, Matteo Pelucchi

Jokers: Juan Jose Lobato, Tom Boonen, Alexander Porsev, Daniele Colli, Nicola Ruffoni