For the third grand tour in a row, Michael Matthews took the leader’s jersey in today’s sprint stage of the Giro d’Italia but his real goal comes tomorrow. The third stage sends the riders into Ligurian hills that have the potential to explode the peloton to pieces but with a long downhill run to the finish, a sprint finish from a reduced peloton is likely to decide the winner on the first hilly day of the Italian grand tour.

 

The course

Due to the Italian geography, the Giro d’Italia organizers have the chance to include hilly stages at almost any point in the race and this means that the riders usually head into the hills pretty early in the race. This will again be the case in 2015 when the riders will tackle the first serious climbing already on the third day. With a long downhill run to the finish, however, it won’t be a day for the GC riders and instead the classics riders and strong sprinters will have their eyes firmly focused on this one.

 

At just 136km, it is a very short affair that brings the riders from Rapallo on the Ligurian coast – where the tragic stage that cost Wouter Weylandt his life, ended – to Sestri Levante just a few kilometres further down the coast. The riders build the distance by doing a big loop in the hilly hinterland before they descend to the coast where they will follow the flat coastal road to the finish.

 

This stage has a mostly challenging and rough course (with a total difference in altitude of nearly 2,300 m over 136 km), with the exception of the last 10 km. The first 110 kilometres (out of 136) feature a never-ending series of curves switching in all directions, undulations, climbs and descents on narrow mountain roads. The route first takes in the Ruta di Camogli climb, just a few kilometres after the start, followed by Colle Caprile (category 3, 11.8km, 3.8%, max. 9%). The course then clears the Scoffera climb, runs across Torriglia and skirts around Lago del Brugneto. It plummets down into Montebruno, with some technical sections, then climbs up again to the Barbagelata KOM summit (category 2, 5.7km, 8.1%, max. 12%) whose summit is located with 43.5km to go, followed by a very long descent (with a technical first half, up to Passo della Scoglina) leading to Chiavari and, eventually, to the finish after a flat final 6.7km section along the coast. The final climb is steepest at the bottom and has an easier section near the top before it again includes a steep 9.8% section of 500m in the final part.

 

The final 7 kilometres of the stage course roll along via Aurelia. The route is mainly flat, with the classic undulations of coastal roads. Two kilometres before the finish, a tunnel protecting against rockfall (almost entirely open, with “windows” along the side facing the sea) leads to a short descent, which ends some 1,200 m before the finish. With 850 m to go, a roundabout causes a slight offset in the route. The home straight is 850-m long, on 6.5-m wide asphalt road and very slightly descending.

 

Sestri Levante hosted a stage finish four times, most recently in 2012 when Lars Bak attacked solo from a breakaway to take his first grand tour stage win. In 2006, it was also a break that decided the stage, with Joan Horrach launching a late attack out of a lead group to take the win with a 5-second margin.

 

 

 

The weather

Last year the riders had a very rainy edition of the Giro d’Italia. Luckily the 2015 race has got off to a much better start and the riders can again expect near-perfect conditions for the third stage. Monday will be a day of bright sunshine and the temperature at the finish will reach a very pleasant 21 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind in the first half of the stage before they turn into a cross-headwind at the midpoint. On the final descent, they will gradually turn into a crosswind and finally they will have a cross-tailwind in the final flat section.

 

The favourites

Grand tours are usually known for their many sprint finishes in the first week but this year the fast finishers have a hard time in the Giro. Only Elia Viviani can approach the next few days with satisfaction after he took a long overdue first grand tour victory in today’s stage while his rivals will have to bide their time until Thursday before they will again get their chance to flex their fast muscles.

 

Instead, the riders head into the Ligurian hills for some very tricky stages that have the potential to explode the peloton. It is no wonder that lots of Ardennes riders have been inspired by the design of the course as the first week is tailor-made for the riders who specialize in the hilly classics and their main challenge may even be to decide which stages to really focus on. It is clear why Philippe Gilbert has chosen this year’s race as the one to go for his first maglia rosa and why Simon Gerrans decided to salvage his spring in this race.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is the first of a duo of stages that suit the same kind of riders and the short, hilly route in the Ligurian hills can really do a lot of damage. Narrow, twisting roads, constant ups and downs and a significant overall amount of climbing will make this stage an extremely tough one.

 

However, it is very hard to gauge how selective the stage will be. The final climb is very tough and if it had been located closer to the finish, it would have been a great chance for the GC riders to do a battle. However, it is followed by a long descent and a flat stretch along the coast and as there will mainly be a headwind in the downhill part, it may take away some of the desire to go on the attack.

 

The terrain is so difficult that it may be possible for a breakaway to stay away and so we should see a very fast start to the stage. The climbing hostilities start right from the start and this means that the strong riders have nice terrain to take off right from the beginning. Hence, we can expect an aggressive opening phase with attacks from very strong riders and it may take some time for the early break to get clear.

 

When the elastic has snapped, Orica-GreenEDGE are likely to hit the front almost immediately. In such a short stage and in this kind of terrain on narrow, twisting roads, they cannot allow the break to get much of an advantage. With Michael Matthews and Simon Gerrans in the team, they have probably the two biggest favourites for the stage and they have done nothing to hide that tomorrow is one of their big goals. Hence, everybody will be looking at them to organize the chase.

 

However, they don’t have the best team for this kind of chase. The first half of the stage is almost all uphill and this will make it hard for the likes of Brett Lancaster, Michael Hepburn and Sam Bewley to make much of a contribution. Luke Durbridge has improved his climbing a lot and he will be a key rider alongside Pieter Weening and Simon Clarke.

 

They have several potential allies though. Depending on how Philippe Gilbert feels after his Fleche Wallonne crash which has forced him to lower his ambitions significantly, BMC may also come to the fore. The same goes for Trek who have Fabio Felline for this stage but the terrain is too hard for most of the riders in the American team. Movistar may target the stage with Juan Jose Lobato too. Finally, it will be a good idea not to allow a Bardiani rider to join the break as the Italian team definitely have big plans in this stage and may also be keen on contributing to the chase.

 

The key point in the stage is of course the final climb. As said it is a very tough affair that is the perfect launch pad for attacks. If the pace is high, it will also be too tough for riders like Matthews and Gerrans and so it will be a delicate affair for Orica-GreenEDGE to find out how to approach it.

 

However, it is not evident which teams have a keen interest in making the race really hard. Instead, we can expect Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo to do some of the work to keep their captains in a good position for the descent and whittle the peloton somewhat down to make the finale less stressful. However, that may be enough to make the race pretty fast and it may be a rather small field that arrives at the top.

 

At this point, Orica-GreenEDGE will probably only have Gerrans, Matthews, Clarke, Weening and Chaves left and it may be hard for them to control the finale. However, they will probably get some help from the GC teams who will control the descent. After the technical part of the descent, the finale is not really suited to attacks so if they can prevent a dangerous group from getting clear on the climb and are strong enough to bring back the early break, they should be able to bring it back together for a sprint finish from a reduced group. However, it will be possible for both an early break and a group that attacks on the final climb, to make it to the finish in this stage.

 

One of the big questions is who will be the leader of Orica-GreenEDGE. The stage is tailor-made for both Gerrans and Matthews and they will both have red-circled it. The team have said that they will make their decision on the road and so we won’t get any pre-race knowledge about their approach to the stage.

 

However, the long downhill finish means that this stage probably suits Matthews a bit better as he is faster in a sprint while the tricky finale in stage 4 is better for Gerrans. Hence, we expect the team to support the race leader but things may change during the stage. Furthermore, Gerrans is a better climber and if Matthews is unable to keep up with the best, the former Liege champion will of course be the leader.

 

If he can survive the climb, Matthews will definitely be the favourite. Among the sprinters in this race, he is by far the best climber and the only one who can handle this kind of challenges. Compared to last year, he has even lost a bit of weight and is climbing a bit better which was evident with his great performance in the Amstel Gold Race.

 

However, the final climb is a very hard for him and there is no guarantee that he will make it to the top with the best. In fact he has often suffered a lot on the longer ascents as it was evident in last year’s Vuelta where John Degenkolb actually handled the long climbs a bit better. This stage may be a bit too hard for him. On the other hand, he is a great descender and may have time to get back in the technical final part. If he arrives at the finish with the best, he is very likely to be the fastest and with Gerrans to lead him out, he will be hard to beat.

 

Gerrans is the second option for the Australian team and he would probably be the biggest rival for Matthews if they were both doing the sprint. The Australian is a master in picking his goals and whenever he sets his sights on a specific race, he usually comes out on top. As said, he has a better chance of surviving the final climb than Matthews and if the race leader is dropped, he will do the sprint.

 

Gerrans has won bunch sprints in Pais Vasco and Catalunya in the past and he famously beat Peter Sagan on stage 3 of the 2013 Tour de France. He is very fast in this kind of finish. He claims to be in great condition after his injury-marred start to the season. If Orica-GreenEDGE decide to back Gerrans, he will be the man to beat.

 

Trek have built a team mostly around Giacomo Nizzolo and so they will be focused on the sprints. However, tomorrow’s stage is too hard for the Italian and that will give the chance for Fabio Felline to chase his first grand tour stage win. The Italian has always been a strong climber but this year he has improved his level amazingly. In the Criterium International, he was doing do well in the big summit finish that he took third overall.

 

Felline is not a pure sprinter but he is strong in a sprint from a reduced group at the end of a hard day. That was evident in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco when he beat Matthews in the sprint on stage 2 to take the biggest win of his career. There is no doubt that he has marked this stage out as it is likely to come down to a reduced sprint.

 

Felline is a better climber than Matthews and will have a better chance of making it to the finish with the best. However, he is likely to be isolated and so will have to handle the sprint on his own. That’s not the ideal scenario as he is not very good at positioning himself but if he can start his sprint from a good position, he has the speed to win.

 

Philippe Gilbert had hoped to take the maglia rosa in the Giro d’Italia but after he crashed in Fleche Wallonne he has shelved those plans. Instead, he has postponed his goals to later in the race but it would be a bad idea to rule the strong Belgian out. In fact he looked very strong in the team time trial where he took some massive turns and it would be very unusual of him not to target this stage. Gilbert has several options as he can both go on the attack on the final climb and mix it up in a sprint from a reduced group.

 

Movistar are in this race without one of their two grand tour stars and instead Benat Intxautsi, Juan Jose Lobato and Ion Izagirre share the captaincy role. Due to a lack of team support, Lobato will have a hard time in the flat sprints but on the hillier days he will be keen to take his chance. There is no doubt that he has marked out tomorrow as a possible day for him. On paper, the climb may be a bit too hard for him but if he can make it to the top with the best and overcome his usual poor positioning, he will be very hard to beat as he is usually even faster than Matthews.

 

Francesco Gavazzi has stepped down to pro continental level after several years at Astana and that move has reinvigorated his career. He has been climbing better than he has done for several years and this should make him a contender in this stage. His main strength is to sprint from a reduced peloton and there is a big chance that he will be in the group that sprints for the win. He is often in the top 5 but very often he lacks the speed to win. It will again be hard to come out on top but don’t rule out a victory for the strong Italian.

 

Bardiani have two cards to play in this stage as Sonny Colbrelli and Enrico Battaglin both excel in reduced bunch sprints. However, none of them have had their best seasons and we have been very disappointed with their performances. We doubt that Colbrelli will be able to survive this kind of climbing but if Battaglin has finally found his best legs, the stage is tailor-made for him.

 

If the stage turns out to be too hard for Lobato, Movistar have another two cards to play in a sprint. Giovanni Visconti and Jesus Herrada are both great climbers and there is no doubt that they will both be there at the end. Furthermore, they are strong enough to attack, great descenders and strong rouleurs which means that they can win the stage both from a reduced sprint and from a late or an early break.

 

The 2015 season has been a breakthrough for Maciej Paterski who has had an amazing year. Now he is ready to go for glory in his first grand tour as a CCC rider and this stage is perfectly suited to him. He has improved his climbing a lot and he is fast in a sprint from a small group. This has netted him several top 10 results this year and tomorrow he can salvage the season for his Polish team.

 

Diego Ulissi is still finding his legs after he was forced to skip the early part of the season due to his doping suspension. His goal is to win a stage and he has said that he hopes to be able to do so in the second week. However, he was already climbing well in Romandie and there is no reason to believe that he won’t be in the group that sprints for the win. He may not be fast enough to win this kind of sprint but don’t rule the strong Italian out.

 

Paolo Tiralongo is here to work for Fabio Aru but today he was given the chance to sprint. That makes I very likely that he will again be given that opportunity tomorrow where a much smaller group is likely to arrive at the finish. After a few years without doing any real sprinting, he has tested himself on a number of occasions in 2015 and tomorrow could be a stage for him.

 

The same can be said about Simon Geschke who is coming back from injury. However, he already seems to be in good condition. He is probably not strong enough to go on the attack yet but he likes this kind of reduced sprints and will definitely give it a shot.

 

Sylvain Chavanel is doing his first Giro and he will be chasing stage wins on days like tomorrow. Everybody knows his aggressive mindset, strong climbing skill and good descending. This means that he can win this stage from an early or a late break. However, he has also won bunch sprints in the past and may test himself in a sprint.

 

Finally, Oscar Gatto, Gianni Meersman, Grega Bole and Luka Mezgec may survive the final climb. On paper, it will be too hard for them but with the headwind, they may have a small chance. If they make it to the finish with the best, they will be among the fastest.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Simon Gerrans, Fabio Felline

Outsiders: Philippe Gilbert, Juan Jose Lobato, Francesco Gavazzi, Enrico Battaglin, Giovanni Visconti, Maciej Paterski

Jokers: Jesus Herrada, Diego Ulissi, Paolo Tiralongo, Simon Geschke, Sylvain Chavanel, Sonny Colbrelli, Oscar Gatto, Gianni Meersman, Luka Mezgec, Grega Bole