Today’s stage turned out to be much harder and more dramatic than most had expected and the GC riders will definitely feel today’s efforts in their legs when they head into the first summit finish of the race. Tomorrow may give another indication of who is up for the challenge of fighting for the top positions at the Giro d’Italia but with a pretty easy second half of the Abetone climb, it is unlikely to be a day for the potential winners to make a difference.

 

The course

The Giro d’Italia usually has its first uphill finishes early in the race but the organizers carefully chose the first climbs to make sure that they are not too hard and create too big time differences. That trend will continue in 2015 when the first summit finish again comes on the fifth day. This year the final climb is harder than the one that featured in the first two uphill finishes in 2014 but with a pretty easy final part, it is unlikely to create any time differences between the biggest favourites.

 

Like the previous stages, stage 5 is a very short affair over just 152km that brings the riders from La Spezia to Abetone. It takes place almost entirely in Tuscany and is named after the Gino Bartali who was born in Ponte a Ema, and recalls his great success on virtually all mountains and, especially, his Abetone GPM wins in 1947 and in 1948.

 

The stage is quite short, and features just two obstacles whose gradients are not too steep. The first part of the route is basically flat; past Aulla, the road starts to climb up to Foce Carpinelli (category 3, 10.1km, 5.0%, max. 9%) as the riders finally leave the coast to get to the first finish that is not at the seafront. Then it runs down to hit the short Barga climb and reach the foot of the final ascent (category 2, 17.3km, 5.4%, max. 10%).

 

The final 17.3-km climb starts in La Lima. Gradients only slightly exceed 2% over the first 4.5 km. The following 8km are steeper, with gradients around 7%. The route then levels out slightly (5%) for the final 5km up to the finish on wide and well-surfaced roads. The final 3km have a pretty constant gradient of 4-5% but there is a very small descent with 1.5km to go. The uphill home straight, with a gradient of 5%, is 100-m long (on 5.5-m wide asphalt road) but there are no sharp turns on the winding mountain roads.

 

Abetone has hosted a stage finish 3 times in the past, most recently in 2000 when Francesco Casagrande took a solo win with a 1.39 advantage over a 9-rider group of favourites that sprinted for second.

 

The weather

The riders have had an unusual hot start to the Giro d’Italia which has made hydration and cramps an important issue. Tomorrow they will again face a day in relatively warm conditions as the temperature in Abetone will reach a maximum of 24 degrees. However, it will be a pretty cloudy day and the sun is only expected to show itself towards the end of the stage.

 

Like today there will only be a light wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind for almost the entire stage until the reach the bottom of the final climb. Here they will turn into a crosswind that will be blowing from the left on the entire ascent.

 

 

 

 

The favourites

Everybody expected today’s stage to be very difficult to control but very few had probably expected the carnage and drama that made it a memorable race. It was no surprise to see a big group of 29 riders go clear but it was unexpected that Tinkoff-Saxo would have Roman Kreuziger in the move. However, the big surprise was the fact that Astana and Sky allowed the group to get away and even build an advantage of 10 minutes.

 

In fact, it is hard to understand why Tinkoff-Saxo decided to chase behind the break. Kreuziger was by far the strongest rider in the break and would have been able to win the race overall if he had got an advantage of 10 minutes. However, Alberto Contador wants to make history by winning the Giro-Tour double and then it is not enough for the team to have Kreuziger on the top step of the podium. This race is all about Contador for Tinkoff-Saxo. Meanwhile, Sky made a big gamble that could have cost them the victory but they were saved by Astana’s very aggressive tactics and Contador’s desire to win.

 

Going into the race, it was clear that Astana had one of the three strongest teams and that they would probably have the biggest amount of firepower on the climbs. However, few would have expected them to play with the muscles in the way they did. Mikel Landa was always expected to be there and everybody knew that Tanel Kangert was strong and that Diego Rosa has improved a lot. However, Paolo Tiralongo is clearly climbing better than he has done for several years and it was amazing how they still had 5 riders in a 19-rider group that had distanced several GC contenders.

 

The performance has definitely given Fabio Aru more confidence and he gained very important time on Rigoberto Uran who is likely to be his biggest rivals in the fight for the third spot on the podium. With the long time trial set to be very important, it was crucial for him to already gain some time in today’s stage.

 

Today’s stage provided plenty of drama but actually it was tomorrow’s stage that was planned to be the first climbing showdown between the GC contenders and give the first indications of the GC hierarchy. However, that stage is unlikely to have the same kind of impact as today’s stage had. The final climb is pretty easy and it has always been unlikely that it would provide any indication of who’s going to win the race. It is the kind of ascent that will show who’s not up for the challenge – which we already saw today – but not one where there race can be won.

 

The middle 10km of the climb are definitely hard enough to be the scene of a big battle between the GC riders but with a pretty easy final 5km it will be difficult for the GC riders to maintain any kind of advantage all the way to the finish. Climbs with a gradient of 5% usually come down to a sprint of a 20-rider group. With the hard middle section, this one may be a bit more selective but a group of the biggest favourites will probably be together at the finish.

 

However, there is no guarantee that they will be sprinting for the win. Contador, Aru and Porte are unlikely to win this kind of stage and so they will probably not do too much to bring the early break back. If Orica-GreenEDGE can make sure that no dangerous rider is in the group that gets clear, they will have no incentive to chase it down either. With riders like Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez who would be obvious favourites in this kind of stage all absent, there is no clear favourite for an uphill sprint and so there is a chance that the break will stay away.

 

Everybody knows that and so we can expect another very fast start to the stage. Many riders want to join the early break and the first part of the stage will probably be very aggressive. Orica-GreenEDGE know that they have a solid chance of defending the maglia rosa – putting it onto the shoulders of Esteban Chaves – so they will be keen to control the early action. With a flat start, that won’t be took difficult and with the strong engines, they should be able to make sure that there is no dangerous rider in the break.

 

We feel pretty sure that Orica-GreenEDGE will allow the break to stay away so it will be left to other teams to do the work. It is not clear which riders have an interest in doing so. Lampre-Merida may want to win the stage with Diego Ulissi but he is not in his best condition. It could be an option for Rigoberto Uran but he took a beating today. Damiano Cunego is an obvious favourite but are Nippo-Vini Fantini strong enough to bring the break back?

 

Tinkoff-Saxo have been riding a lot on the front but tomorrow the stage is not as dangerous so there is no reason to chase hard. However, Astana may want to make the race hard as Aru needs to use every opportunity to gain seconds. To so do in this kind of stage, he needs a fast pace so we may see Astana come to the fore. However, we would give the early break a 50% chance of staying away if there is no dangerous rider in there.

 

If Astana, Nippo-Vini Fantini, Lampre-Merida and Tinkoff-Saxo bring it back together, the race will come down to a battle on the final climb. We are pretty sure that Astana will make the race hard and this will make the stage pretty selective. We expect Fabio Aru to attack in the steep part but he is unlikely to drop the likes of Alberto Contador and Richie Porte. Unless he has teammates up the road, that can help him in the easy final part, more riders are likely to get back and so the most likely scenario is a sprint from a small group.

 

This makes Rigoberto Uran our favourite to win the stage. We were not surprised to see that he was unable to follow Aru, Porte and Contador in today’s stage as he has never been at their level. However, tomorrow’s easier finale should make him a lot more comfortable and in a 5% uphill sprint, he is clearly the fastest of the GC contenders. This year he has already won several sprints, albeit only for second place, and if he is still there at the finish he will be hard to beat.

 

The main challenge for Uran will be to make it to the top with the best and he may be distanced in the steep section. However, he won’t lose too much time and unless Astana turn out to be very strong and have riders at Aru’s side, he should be able to make it back in time to win the stage by virtue of his good sprint.

 

Since he won the race overall in 2004, Damiano Cunego hasn’t won a stage of the race that marked his big breakthrough. However, he has clearly benefited from his decision to join Nippo-Vini Fantini. Already in April, it was clear that he is riding much better than he has done for several years and today he confirmed his good condition as he was part of the 19-rider group that emerged on the Passo del Termine. Hence, he will be very hard to drop on this easier climb and he is very strong in this kind of uphill sprint.

 

The same goes for Damiano Caruso who was also riding very strongly in today’s stage. Like Cunego he was in the 19-rider group in the finale and so he should be able to be in the group that is likely to sprint for the win at the top. He may not have won an awful lot of races in his time as a professional but he is very fast and has often mixed it up in bunch sprints. This stage suits him very well and as he seems to continue the progress he showed in last year’s Vuelta, tomorrow could be the day to take a first grand tour stage win.

 

As said, Astana will probably try to blow the race to pieces and we expect Fabio Aru to try his hand. It seems that he, Alberto Contador and Richie Porte are the strongest climbers in this race and we doubt that will be able to distance each other on this kind of climb. However, it will not be impossible for those three riders to get to the finish together and in that case Aru will be the fastest in the sprint. The Italian already has three grand tour stages on his palmares and tomorrow could be the day to take number four.

 

His teammate Paolo Tiralongo is another great candidate for this stage. As said, he is climbing better than he has done for several years and his pace-setting on the final climb in today’s stage was enough to drop several GC contenders. In 2012, he won a stage in this kind of uphill sprint and this stage is perfectly suited to his characteristics. Astana will probably use him to make the race hard and so he may never get his own chance but if he is there at the finish, he is an obvious contender.

 

If this had been 2014, we would have made Diego Ulissi the overwhelming favourite to win this stage. However, the Italian is just coming back from suspension and even though he is getting better to his best form, it is probably still too early for him to win this kind of uphill sprint. He didn’t look too strong in the break yesterday and today he was clearly distanced. However, he may have saved some energy for today and it will not be impossible for him to be there in the sprint. If that’s the case, he will be nearly impossible to beat. He can also go on the attack and if he makes the right break, he will be the obvious favourite.

 

If Esteban Chaves can keep up with the best, tomorrow will be the biggest day of his cycling career as he is likely to take the overall lead. However, he may add a stage win for good measure. He is not only a great climber, he is also very fast in an uphill sprint. Last year he finished third in a very punchy sprint in the Tour of Beijing and this stage suits him a lot better. He has spent a lot of energy the last few days and so it remains to be seen if he can hold onto the best but if he is there, he will be in contention for the win.

 

Today Davide Formolo confirmed his huge potential which made us declare him the number one rider to watch in 2015 at the start of the year. He may actually make it two in a row as tomorrow’s stage also suits him pretty well. Like Chaves he used a lot of energy today but with his solid punch he will be a contender in a sprint.

 

Of course Richie Porte and Alberto Contador also deserved to be mentioned. However, this is not really a stage for them and they are outsiders more than real favourites. None of them are fast in a sprint and are probably slowed than Aru whom they are unlikely to drop on this climb. However, Aru is not very fast either and so it won’t be impossible for the two pre-race favourites to win a three-rider sprint.

 

Roman Kreuziger is mainly here to support Alberto Contador and he is clearly riding very strongly. Unlike his captain, he also has a decent punch in a sprint and he could very well find himself in the group that sprints for the win. If that’s the case, it won’t be impossible for him to come out on top.

 

If a break stays away, there are several good candidates. At the time of writing, there is no explanation of Ilnur Zakarin’s time loss but a Katusha rider suffered a mechanical just as the peloton exploded. This may be the cause for his poor performance and so we can expect him to bounce back. He will be eager to go on the attack and is clearly in great condition. In fact, he may also be in the group of favourites in the finale and he has the speed to win an uphill sprint.

 

Stef Clement was hugely frustrated to miss today’s break and he will be eager to get his revenge. The Dutchman is climbing really well at the moment and he has the firepower to get clear in the flat early part. The final climb is not too steep and so suits him very well. If he makes it into the right break, he could very well come out on top.

 

Philippe Gilbert missed the chance to take the maglia rosa but he will be keen to strike back tomorrow. The final climb is obviously too long to suit him well but as he proved last year in Beijing, it is not impossible for him to handle this kind of challenge. He will probably not mix it up with the favourites in the end but if he joins the right break, he will be a strong contender.

 

The same can be said for Giovanni Visconti and Ruben Fernandez. Both are clearly in good condition and are suited to this kind of stage. Fernandez has lost time and will be able to go on the attack but his strong climbing in today’s stage where he was part of the 19-rider group of favourites, suggests that he may also be part of the group that sprints for the win. It may not be impossible for Visconti to stay with the best on this climb and with his fast sprint he will be an obvious contender if he can survive the steep part

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Rigoberto Uran

Other winner candidates: Damiano Cunego, Damiano Caruso

Outsiders: Fabio Aru, Paolo Tiralongo, Diego Ulissi, Esteban Chaves, Davide Formolo, Alberto Contador, Richie Porte

Jokers: Roman Kreuziger, Ilnur Zakarin, Stef Clement, Philippe Gilbert, Giovanni Visconti, Ruben Fernandez